Racing Tip At Ripon

The problem today is serious rain is coming and
said to be hitting everywhere. I have to produce
the message knowing that the ground will change
everywhere. There is no way of knowing just how
much rain there will be or when it will fall so this
is going to be the single biggest issue of the day.

It will mean lots more non runners later on top
of several already pulled out. Plenty of opinions
in lots of races today. Done what I can despite a
lack of knowledge about what will run. Its one of
those messages to slowly navigate through. Dont
be afraid to overrule some selections if evidence
later shows that to be sensible. The weather does
not make it safe or sensible to go with a strong
stake today.

Perhaps unpredictable as a race but the 4.30pm at
Ripon interested me. I wasnt convinced about the
favourite and I felt the bet was BLUE DEER as
an improver from a stronger stable with entries
all over the place and bred to appreviate softer
ground. I felt he was worth a bet around 11/2.

R i p o n  4.30

5/2 Arrivaderci, 6/1 Blue Deer, 17/2 Song Of Parkes
9/1 Decadence, 9/1 Eeny Mac, 10/1 Lady Platinum Club
12/1 Cottam Stella, 12/1 Gambatte, 12/1 Grazeon Again
12/1 Spinatrix, 14/1 Roman Ruler, 16/1 Bahamian Jazz
25/1 Ivy And Gold.

This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f. This race has 18
renewals and being a “Maiden” handicap its best seen
in isolation from other races. I didnt like the look of
favourite ARRIVADERCI as a 3yo filly coming from
a 5f race when inexperienced and having so few races
this season and I would look elsewhere. For the same
reasons I would also oppose COTTAM STELLA too.
No past winners of this dropped from a Mile or more
so SONG OF PARKES from 8f and DECADENCE as
a horse from a 10f race look vulnerable. These would
be my main negatives in an open looking races. I feel
LADY PLATINUM CLUB and EENY MAC have to
be seriously considered. So to does BLUE DEER who
comes from a good stable and a horse entered all over
the place this week.  EENY MAC who looks likely to
appreciate the drop in class and track and I was very
tempted by him but an inexperienced winnerless pilot
puts me off him. BLUE DEER looks the one to me.

Selection – BLUE DEER 6/1 bet 365
If that goes or 365 have limited you to penny stakes as they tend to do..
11/2 available at Coral Ladbrokes William Hill sky

Live prices at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-07-16/ripon/16-30/betting/

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This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

Racing At Ascot

ASCOT, UNITED KINGDOM - JUNE 19:  Ryan Moore a...
Image by Getty Images via @daylife

A few thoughts for Ascot today from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

ASCOT 3.50

Victoria Racing Club International Stakes
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)7f

7/1 Tagseed, 8/1 Decent Fella, 8/1 Yaa Wayl, Poet´s Place,
12/1 Crown Choice, 12/1 Himalya, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Mac´s Power, 16/1 Suruor, Swift Gift, 20/1 Imperial Guest 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Something, 25/1 Advanced,
25/1 Al Muheer, 25/1 Big Noise, Hacienda, 33/1 Al Farahidi
33/1 Gallagher, 33/1 Glen Molly, 33/1 Hajoum.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-105
* There has been 10 renewals of this race
* There has been 40 similar Class 2 handicaps elsewhere in July
* Starting with a quick shortlist of whats won this race
* All 10 winners were Male horses
* Horses aged 4 have dominated winning 8 of the 10 races
* Horses that were other ages have struggled
* 3 year olds (1-55) 5 year olds (1-57) Horses aged 6 + (0-60)
* You want between 5 and 20 Career starts
* Exposed horses had a 1-100 record in the 10 renewals
* You ideally want 4 + runs this season if having 9 + runs
* Horses with 9 + runs and 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-51
* Horses with 4-5 runs this season were best
* Your horse is best coming from Ascot or Newmarket
* 9 of the 10 winners came from one of those tracks
* You don’t want a horse that has run in Group 1/Group 2 before
* 9 of the 10 winners ran 2-7 weeks ago
* None were absent more than 7 weeks
* Those running within 2 weeks were 1-84
* Horses from Listed or Group races were 0-35
* Horses from 6f or shorter had a weak record
* Those with 9 or more career starts  from 6f were 0-42
* No horse had 5 or more previous wins (0-66)
* These Ascot angles leave a shortlist of 2

TAGSEED – MAC´S POWER

Both drawn wide apart. You could bet one and save
on the other. Its a guess which in my view is best so
as its the bigger price my Number 1 would have to be
MAC’S POWER but the sensible thing is to see which
side of the draw is favoured from previous races here
today and be prepared to switch if the draw dictates it.

Tagseed best price 11/1 Coral

Mac’s power available at 16/1 Paddy Power Bet365 vc * more

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2000 Guineas Analysis

2000 Guineas message from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

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It is 2000 Guineas day today. There are some big
poweful meetings today. There’s plenty of rain in
the air as well and some changing in the ground.
Always a danger of overstretching yourself and
doing too much on this particular Saturday. The
message for full members has 7 previews including
five handicapsand the 2000 Guineas itself which is
fascinating.

The seven races start slowly and build up into a
strong finish. Early doors there are 2 Goodwood
handicaps and they are just standard bottom of
the message races. I take in the Guineas and the
Palace House Stakes but we are not really in the
territory we should be for account bets. I like a
good go at the Thirsk Hunt Cup and have done
well there over the years. This year I like a 16/1
chance but it is probably too difficult this year.

The two races I like best are two divisions of a
5f Handicap at Thirsk at 5.15pm and 5.45. Same
angles apply in both races. Sometimes Thirsk is
such a seductive track as the angles there can
be out of this world but it is a track that throws
up results that make the angles look ridiculous
at times but despite that I feel strong in these 2
races and thats where I feel we should be going.

For full members there are Account Bets in these two thirsk races.

For the free blog however we will take a look at the the big race of the day
the 200 Guineas

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NEWMARKET 3.05

StanJames.com 2000 Guineas Stakes
(Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (3yo)1m

Evs St Nicholas Abbey, 7/1 Elusive Pimpernel, 9/1 Canford Cliffs 10/1 Awzaan,
12/1 Fencing Master, 20/1 Al Zir, 20/1 Dick Turpin 20/1 Inler, 20/1 Xtension,
28/1 Makfi, 33/1 Hearts Of Fire 40/1 Viscount Nelson, 66/1 Fair Trade,
100/1 Buzzword 100/1 Elspeth´s Boy, 100/1 Lord Zenith,
100/1 Red Jazz 200/1 Audacity Of Hope, 200/1 Greyfriarschorista.

The 2000 Guineas is fascinating as ever. There are so many
issues in this race. I can throw killer stats at everything in the race.
It depends mainly on ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and whether
Aidan O Brien’s horse needs further.
Those people opposing ST NICHOLAS ABBEY have valid arguments.
It is true his Sire has a poor Group 1 record with Milers.
It is also true running over a mile as a 2 year old has not been a good thing to
do in this race but it has been done and he is clearly going to be top class.
The issue for me is what can I sensibly oppose him with. I think there are few alternatives.

With ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL he is already well held by the
favourite. I dont see winning the Craven as a big help and
he is also a middle distance horses. I think he find Stall one hurts him.
Since 2007 Newmarket’s had 25 races with 14 or more runners.
Stalls 1-2-3 had a 1-72 record in these races and that sole winner was
Sea The Stars a wonderhorses. I’d argue ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL may
be in trouble from his draw trying to get into the race.
AWZAAN also has a poor draw in Stall 2 and has to come from a 6f race
and has never run at further than 6f. I read in the paper recently that in the last
50 years there was only 1 winner of this race that never previously ran at 7f
or more and that was in 1999 and a race generally viewed as one of the worst
Guineas in years and over 100 of these horses like AWZAAN had tried.
He lacks a good profile and a good draw. FENCING MASTER makes limited appeal.
He looks like he wants further just as both his parents did and all his siblings.
CANFORD CLIFFS did not look certain to stay the 7f in the Greenham so
there has to be serious doubts about him staying a mile and beaten in a trial is
hardly a ringing endorsement. I cant have INLER as a horse coming from 6f with
just 1 career start. I’d question whether XTENSION has the class. AL ZIR needs to improve
so much and has already been beaten up by the favourite in
the Racing Post Trophy. I can see the argument to suggest
that DICK TURPIN is overpriced at 25/1 and could place. I
do think there are good arguments about every runners. In
the end it came down to ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and I dont
see a horse I can offer as a sensible alternative. I’d pick him.

SELECTION

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY

Check the link below for best current odds

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-05-01/newmarket/15-05/betting/

BOYLESPORTS INTERNATIONAL HURDLE

Saturday December 20th

No Account Bet

No Selections

Decided to resist a bet today on either account. If I had one it would be simply be because it was a Saturday and not for the right reasons. Its one of those Saturday’s where the racing is high class and fascinating to watch with some top quality horses running but its so competitive that strong bets don’t look obvious. I have nothing on the sand today so the message revolves around 8 races I like. I have covered most of the big races today and as a message goes its not a bad one aside from one that doesn’t throw up a serious bet on the day. Feel a little bit embarrassed and disappointed not to find something strong today but I don’t want to abandon a principle in throwing any horse at you just because its a saturday and pretending I like it more than I do. I think its a day for small stakes through the message from start to finish or a day to possibly throw a few horses in an each way multiple bet. Stronger days will come soon enough. Leaving this one for interest only bettingIf stuck for inspiration of your own today see below.

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ASCOT 1.40 BoyleSports INTERNATIONAL HURDLE GRADE 2 (4yo+) 2m

11/10 Binocular, 7/2 Crack Away Jack, 11/2 Chomba Womba, 11/2 Katchit, 12/1 Celestial Halo.

SELECTION – KATCHIT Best Current Price 7/1 Coral

KATCHIT can win this race. This is a Quality 2m hurdle with some class hurdlers including Champion Hurdler KATCHITand several pretenders to his crown. This is rescheduled from last weeks abandoned Cheltenham meeting. KATCHIT was my choice last weeks race and is today. I dont like the horse as he has never done me any favours and I would rather he hadnt have won the Champion Hurdle last year. I dont think he will in 2009 either but surely he has to be the bet here. We know that this race is not a good race for 4 year olds. Not saying they cant win but they do score badly. Is it so unreasonable to assume KATCHIT must beat these pretenders. He is the Champion Hurdler. Would you not expect him to beat CELESTIAL HERO a 4 year old who has never faced an older horse before and is having his first run of the season. Can he not give 4lbs and 2lbs to the 4 year olds in the race. When we get to March we will be discussing the bad record of 5 year olds in the Champion Hurdle. KATCHIT overcame that and both BINOCULAR and CRACK AWAY JACK will face the same problems next March. Surely you would rather bet the horse that overcame a very hard statistic that lasted decades over two 4 year olds and a Mare in Chomba Womba. As for this theory that KATCHIT had a better chance at Cheltenham – That may be true but I think thats got into peoples minds as they have seen him run at Cheltenham so many times before. It is also an assumption that will add 2 points to his price. His record right handed is perfectly fine and he has had two warm up runs to gain full fitness. I think the ground beat him at Kempton forst time out and he was givinglumps of weight away last time. His 3rd run of the year – a smaller field and back at just about level weights we may be saying after the race that KATCHIT was far too big a price for a champion hurdle winner running against 4 year olds and mares at these weights.

Regards

Guy

Horse Betting Blog