Racing Advice For Warwick

Our usual free horse racing tip from Guy over at the Mathematician Site is below.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Free Horse Racing Tips

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SERVICE NEWS

There are 69 days to the Cheltenham Festival. In
aviation terms the National Hunt flight takes off
in November with the Destination Cheltenham in
March. We have been through the turbulance of
weeks 1 and 2 in January where the racing is poor
and one of the bumpiest parts of the trip. Now as
we come to weeks 3 and 4 in January the flight is
now starting a gradual descent down to destination.
During that descent passangers will be able to see
some great landmarks like the Tote Gold Trophy
now known sadly as the Betfair hurdle. There is
the Skybet Chase – The Victor Chandler at Ascot
and many other statistically strong races. We are
entering Ante Post Season now which is always a
lot more interesting than the drudgery you get on
the Sand and the lower grade national hunt cards.
I plan to do full statistical previews for all the big
trials and I always get excited at this time of year.

SATURDAY’S RACING

The horse I am most excited about today
and the strongest bet advised today to Full Members,
runs in a very early race today. I will leave metioning it here
on the free betting blog.

For the free tip today we are off to Warwick for one of the later races.

W a r w i c k   3.40

5/1 Sona Sasta, 6/1 Neptune Equester, 7/1 Blazing Bailey
7/1 Strongbows Legend, 8/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Faasel
10/1 Hey Big Spender, Bench Warrent 14/1 Fredo
14/1 Morning Moment,16/1 On Borrowed Wings
20/1 Hello Bud 20/1 Miko De Beauchene.

* The Classic Chase is a high class 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are 20 similar races at this time of year.
* Not a great stats race as it has changed over the years
* There is a small sample size of these races as well
* MORNING MOMENT – Not for me 8lbs out of the weights
* All recent winners had more backclass than him
* His last run was poor and he has a weak profile
* Only 2 winners overcame heavy defeats to win similar races
* They all had Backclass in Graded races and he doesnt
* I’d also argue he may not stay this far
* MIKO DE BEAUCHENE looks wrong aged 12
* He has not ran a good race in over 2 years
* He is out of the handicap and offers nothing
* FAASEL is 11 and has a miserable profile
* I dont want to bet an exposed 11yo first time out
* I looked at every race in January
* Thats every distance , every class and any kind of race
* I looked at exposed horses aged 11 or more first time
* None managed to win beyond 3 Miles
* None managed to win beyond a Class 4 race
* The only Handicap Chase winner was 2m 5f in Class 4
* FAASEL has a very hard task in my view
* He has never won beyond 2m 5f before either
* HEY BIG SPENDER comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* That hurts his profile and so does his weight
* Horses with 11st 8lbs in this race were 0-17
* HEY BIG SPENDER also has to prove he stays this far
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 3f yet
* BENCH WARRENT comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* He may struggle to get over a hard race at Chepstow
* Statistically I can live with him
* I cant forgive him a hard 4th in the Welsh National
* Not with a very inexperienced jockey
* ON BORROWED WINGS comes from 22f
* No winners did that in any similar race in January
* His last Chase was only in a Novice Handicap
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* FREDO is exposed and doesnt do it for me
* No exposed horse won when  aged 8
* None won when coming from 3m or shorter either
* FREDO also has to show he stays
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* HELLO BUD is too old aged 14
* I looked at every winner aged 13 or more over 3m 2f +
* Thats in any race and at any time of year
* There was only 1 winner beyond a Class 3 race
* That was Spot The Difference in a Cross Country Chase
* Out of form aged 14 he is not worth betting
* BLAZING BAILEY comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* I can accept the argument he is a class horse
* And that he will like the ground and the drop in class
* You can also argue he didnt have too hard a race at Chepstow
* Statistically though he is not strong
* I looked at all exposed horses running within a month
* They had a bad record and none ran as badly as him last time

S h o r t l i s t

* MAJOR MALARKEY has 1 run this season
* Thats easily my biggest problem with him
* Past winners had  1 2 3 2 6 2 4 runs that season
* Last years winner was a 9yo with 1 run this year
* That really does help his profile
* Last years winner also had 9 Chase starts like him
* Last years winner helpsm to gets him shortlisted
* Without that evidence I’d have opposed him
* Still bothers me he’s the only horse with 1 run

* STRONGBOWS LEGEND is hard to read aged 7
* All 7 year old winners were placed last time
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND Fell which isnt a good preparation
* Ignore that and he won 25 lengths before that
* This is said to be a very well handicapped horse
* His lack of backclass bothers me a bit
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND has no form beyond Class 3 grade
* The last 7 winners all had Graded form
* Almost every similar winner had more backclass too
* He is 5lbs out of the handicap as well
* I like him a lot but not sure if he has the class

* SONA SASTA has 5 Chase starts
* We have had recent winners with 4 and 6 chase starts
* I’d have liked a slighly better last run
* I can overlook that as he hasn’t done much wrong
* If the grounds right he must be a player
* He has to prove he stays this far though
* Thats not certain on his breeding

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – No strong problems with him
* He did the right thing avoiding the Welsh National
* I dont see why he shouldnt go well

Selection

NEPTUNE EQUESTER 13/2 Each Way

13/2 available at Bet365

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-14/warwick/15-40/betting/

.

Racing Post Chase Tip

One of the major races today is The Racing Post Chase over at Kempton.

Race analyst Guy Ward provides his thoughts on the race below.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Betting

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Thanks for those of you who emailed to say thanks for a bit of extra winnings last week.  Not the full cigar but 9/1 each way returned a bit of profit.

I had a couple of requests to have a look at the Racing Post Chase this week on the free blog.

It’s one of the extra races I looked at for full members so here are my quick thoughts on it.

KEMPTON 3.00

Racing Post Chase Handicap Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

5/1 Fistral Beach, 5/1 Nacarat, 6/1 Quinz, 8/1 Bakbenscher
9/1 Mostly Bob, 10/1 Sagalyrique, 12/1 Hey Big Spender
12/1 Tatenen, 14/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Polyfast
20/1 Crescent Island, 20/1 Door Boy, 20/1 Ringaroses
25/1 Piraya, 33/1 Safari Adventures, 40/1 Free World
40/1 Mount Oscar.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 16 renewals of this race.
* Febuary and March have seen 136 Handicap Chases
* Thats 136 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher
* FISTRAL BEACH doesnt offer enough for me
* Not keen he has just 1 run this season
* No past winner of this race had 1 run that season
* In 136 of these races I looked at those with 1 run this year
* When coming from 22f or shorter there were 3 winners
* Those with 7 or more career starts were just 1-35
* That winner had less weight and a more recent run
* CRESCENT ISLAND has the same problems to overcome
* RINGAROSES is wrong with 1 run this season
* None of the 136 winners came from 18f or shorter
* All 32 lost and FREE WORLD fails that
* QUINZ comes from a Novice Chase
* No winner of this race came from an ordinary Novice Chase
* Horses doing that in 136 other races had a 3-59 record
* None were aged 7 like QUINZ (0-14)
* None had as much weight as he does either
* Horses beaten in a Novice Chase last time were 0-24
* QUINZ also fails that and doesnt come out well enough
* MOUNT OSCAR is out up in trip aged 12
* SAFARI ADVENTURES is exposed and up in trip
* He lacks the backclass to overcome that
* PIRAYA is exposed up in trip with 1-2-3 runs this season
* Similar horses had a 1-51 record
* That winner had more backclass than PIRAYA
* He also flopped in last years race and wants a small field
* RAZOR ROYALE won this race last year
* This year he has a much inferior preparation
* He is exposed this year and has far fewer prep runs
* He also has a nasty absence which doesnt help him
* I dont see him bouncing back to form with his profile
* MOSTLY BOB comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* He only has 9 career National Hunt Starts
* Horses from Novice Handicaps with under 13 runs are 0-14
* MOSTLY BOB fails that and looks wrong to me
* I looked at all 8 year olds from Novice Handicap Chases
* I found only 1 winner and he had far more backclass
* MOSTLY BOB only has 3 career Chase starts
* Thats very inexperienced and he fell in one of those chases
* The 16 winners of this race had the following Chase starts
* 9 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13
* The lightest raced chaser to win this Gloria Victus (2000)
* He had 5 runs which is far more experienced than he is
* MOSTLY BOB doesnt look right with 3 runs from handicaps
* DOOR BOY doesnt appeal much to me
* Well beaten on all  starts this year
* I couldnt find a winner like him in the 136 races
* His lack of form this year makes him vulnerable
* POLYFAST is 8 and won a Handicap Chase last time
* That was over 2m 5f and there are 4 similar winners
* They all had a more recent run than him
* They all had more backclass as well
* POLYFAST hasnt been out of Listed Class yet
* 3 or the 4 similar winners had Grade 1 form before
* They all came from higher in the weights as well
* His form over this far raises stamina doubts too
* Statistically he doesnt make the grade for me
* SAGALYRIQUE is 7 and comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* I found 1 similar winner doing that
* He did have a bit more backclass than he does
* The issue with SAGALYRIQUE is if he has the class
* My best guess is that he wont
* The overnight rain wont have helped him either
* With Blinkers and a Tongue Strap he doesnt feel like the one

POSSIBLES

NACARAT – BAKBENSCHER
HEY BIG SPENDER – TATENEN

* NACARAT doesnt have a major statistical problem
* The 2004 winner (Malborough) had a very similar profile
* His stable is out of form though
* HEY BIG SPENDER is 8 and won a 21f handicap last time
* I found 3 similar winners with that profile
* They all had Grade 1 form and a high weight and recent run
* HEY BIG SPENDER also fits that profile
* The 2001 and 1999 winners of this race had that profile
*  HEY BIG SPENDER has a good profile for me
* One doubt is whether he can recover from his last race
* Only 14 days ago it would be a small concern
* No horse won this from 2m 5f in the past fortnight
* The other is whether a right handed flat track suits
* All his best form came away from tighter tracks
* It was tight at Warwick last time but not right handed
* TATENEN is 7 and won a 22f handicap last time
* I found 1 similar winner in the 136 races
* TATENEN has to prove he stays 3 Miles today
* His 4 runs at 3m and more have been bad defeats
* He was not fancied in 3 of those 4 runs
* Wrong to assume he doesnt stay based on that record
* His trainer is on record as being unsure if he stays 3m
* Shortlistable on his profile his biggest issue is stamina
* BAKBENSCHER is hard to read from a Graduation Chase
* Plenty to like about his profile
* Not least a good recent win and strong form right handed
* Statistically he is hard to assess because of his last run
* The Positives far outweight the doubts for me

SELECTION

All 4 have at least one concern as mentioned above. I see
TATENEN placing but perhaps not staying well enough to
win. NACARAT is respected and looks saver material with
topweight. The last four winners were 8 year olds and that
and a recent run steers me towards  BAKBENSCHER

BAKBENSCHER Win Bet     9/1  at Bet365 and VC

( Nacarat – Optional Saver)

Hennessy Racing Tip

Hennessy Racing Tip

This fairly comprehensive Hennessy analysis was provided by Guy Ward.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
sky VC Tote