Hennessy Gold Cup Tips

Saturday sees the 2015 running of the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury

If seeking some inspiration to solve this race then take a quick
peek at some detailed data at the link below from Mathematician Betting

They are also running a free to enter tipping comp on this Hennessy race
where you can win you valuable full membership time on their horse
racing advisory service.

See here ==> Hennessy Gold Cup 2015

 

 

 

 

Sandown Horse Racing Tip

Our regular Saturday free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician Site is below

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A pleasing result last weekend with Bob’s Worth
winning the Hennessy Gold Cup for us.

For full members today I have a firm bet at good odds advised
in the 2.45 race.
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See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

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Here on the free blog I have popped up a race from slightly lower down the pecking order on my main message.

Sandown  2.30

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-12-08/sandown-park/14-30/betting/

* This is a 0-147 handicap hurdle over 2 Miles
* There has been 19 renewals of this race
* There has been 58 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 58 Handicaps at 2m in Class 2-Listed-Grade 3
* Past winners had 4 5 4 9 26 7 5 6 11 7 Hurdle runs
* There is only one past winner with more than 11 runs
* That race (2006) was a falsely run race in a crawl
* Clearly horses with 4-11 hurdle races are best
* The past winners had the following days absence
* 21 28 21 6 6 28 15 9 27 13
* Past winners had these number of runs that season
* 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 4
* A recent run is important in this race
* You want a lightly raced hurdler with a recent run
* You also want a younger horse as well
* Horses aged 8 or more have a miserable 1-67 record
* PETIT ROBIN is a 9yo and I feel too risky
* He has Topweight and that bothers me as well
* Lightweights have a much better record
* Only 1 winner had more than 11st 5lbs
* That was in 2009 a poor renewal with a false pace
* STARLUCK has too much weight for 15 hurdle runs
* You want an in form horse as well
* 16 of 19 past winners of this were 1-2-3-4-5 last time
* Only one was beaten more than 12 lengths last time
* That came in a Graded race as welll
* RAJAMAND is out as a seasonal debutant
* HELIUM is too exposed
* ROWAN TIGER – I wanted a better last run
* SOFTSONG – Not keen as a 4yo from a novice hurdle
* Especially beaten last time out and so lightly raced
* I think there are better options
* DOLATULO – Didnt think he had proven enough
* SWAMPFIRE is 4 and from a Novice Handicap
* There was 1 winner aged 4 doing that
* That horse had Grade 1 form and he doesnt
* SWAMPFIRE is therefore unsafe but respected
* INTO WAIN – I cant find a good stat against him
* I dont like the fact he raced recently on the flat
* Very few do that and It undermines their chance

Shortlist

* MONTE CAVALLO has enough to shortlist
* Not many 7yo’s are as lightly raced though

* CANADIAN DIAMOND is 5 from a Novice Handicap
* The 2008 winner was similar from the same race
* CANADIAN DIAMOND has enough to shortlist

* IFANDBUTWHYNOT also comes from this race
* Lots to like in his profile and has to go well
* The only downside is he is shorter than ideal
* Because of that he’s a saver not a selection

Selection

70% of stake Win MONTE CAVALLO 10/1  victor chandler stan james ( who both offer best odds guarantee )

30% of stake Saver IFANDBUTWHYNOT 3/1  bet 365 Ladbrokes William Hill ( who all offer best odds guarantee )

 

Hennessy Racing Tip

Hennessy Racing Tip

This fairly comprehensive Hennessy analysis was provided by Guy Ward.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
sky VC Tote

Hennessy Gold Cup

My Hennessy conclusion is that the bet is both a win bet on ALBERTAS RUN and a saver on BIG BUCKS but like many I’m worried about the ground for ALBERTAS RUN. Midweek I was confident he would win this race but many little things have conspired against him and my confidence has drained a little away from him. I have backed him at a shorter price than he is now and the potential for me to have the race wrong now is a strong possibility.

I hope he wins but I cant pretend I am as bullish as I was 48 hours ago.

This is certainly not Account Bet strength but I hope you enjoy the analysis and find it an aid if trying to unravel the Hennessey yourself.
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NEWBURY 2:40

HENNESSY GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 3 (4yo+) 3m2f110y

Racing Post Forecast Prices
6/1 Air Force One, Big Buck´s, 15/2 Island Flyer, 8/1 Albertas Run, 11/1 Oedipe, 14/1 Slim Pickings, 16/1 Dear Villez, High Chimes, Royal County Star, 20/1 Snoopy Loopy, Verasi, 25/1 Knowhere, 50/1 Always Waining, Madison Du Berlais, Monkerhostin, My Will.


SELECTION- ALBERTAS RUN  ( best current price 9/1 PaddyPower, canbet, pagebet )

SAVER – BIG BUCKS  ( best current price 5/1 Canbet )

This race strongly favours lightly raced, progressive second-season chasers. If you look at the last 15 years of the Hennessy Gold Cup it has been dominated by horses that had between 6 and 20 races before. We haven’t had a winner that had under 5 starts. On the other end of the scale Horses that had More than 20 Career races had a disastrous 0-59 record in this race. All 59 got beaten and not that Many were Placed. You don’t want a seasoned handicapper who has limited potential and whose form is clearly an open book and who has had ample time to be accurately assessed by the Handicapper. These types end up giving weight to horses that have far more scope and Improvement and horses that are very well handicapped. The following tables show how many runs the recent past winners have had and how many handicap runs they have had as well.

* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy

10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16

* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate the Hennessy

0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8

* Finishing 1st-2nd or 3rd last time is important

Recent form seems important. You must have been placed 1st 2nd or 3rd last time out. I have looked at every winner of this going back to 1987 and every one of those winners managed a 1-2-3 Placing last time out. Such is the test of this Class race that we should be ignoring anything that did not have the ability to place last time assuming they do not have the Class to win a Hennessy or the jumping prowess. Since 1987 there have been well over 100 Horses that failed to finish placed or better on their latest start. None of these 100 + runners won.

I don’t want VERASI. I do like the horse. I had him as a saver in last years Sun Alliance at 25/1 so its nothing personal. You can argue that he is over exposed for a race like this but he has only had 6 chase starts so that’s harsh. He fails the statistic that demands a 1-2-3 finish last time out but the one factor I really do not forgive him for is his flat form. This is a Flat bred horse that started his career on the flat. You can go back decades and you wont find any Hennessy winner starting his career on the flat in England.

ROYAL COUNTY STAR looks all wrong. We haven’t had a winner warm up over hurdles. The run he had wasn’t good enough anyway. He did not achieve enough last time. His handicap mark looks stiff and he doesn’t have half the improvement of most of these.

I don’t want KNOWWHERE with top weight. That’s a tall order. The two recent Top weight winners Denman and Trablogan were both Sun Alliance winners and KNOWWHERE looks exposed. He was well beaten in last years race with 10lbs less weight. He has a career high mark and having ran in 12 handicap chase’s is not the profile of a Hennessy winner.

SNOOPY LOOPY is also exposed and has had far more handicap runs than ideal. He was a huge price for this race before he won last week in Kauto Star’s race at 33/1. There must be a huge doubt he can reproduce his best just 7 days later. I have to take him on.

SLIM PICKINGS isn’t for me. I don’t like the fact he comes from a 2 mile race which is not a good thing or a successful thing in this race. I think he looks exposed. Is a horse that has lost his last 14 races likely to win a Hennessy. I don’t think so.

HIGH CHIMES is a seasonal debutant. Several recent winners were making their debuts that season but they were younger. HIGH CHIMES is a 9 year old. If you look at the last 17 Hennessy’s and look at seasonal debutants aged 8 or more you find a 0-42 record. That’s a worry for him. So to is his handicap mark as he won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last March off 127 and has to run from 141 today. There hasn’t been a similar winner of the Hennessy in recent memory so I would not see HIGH CHIMES as my selection in this years race.

DEAR VILLEZ can’t be discounted but he isn’t for me. He won well last time in Ireland and passes most trends in this race. He is clearly Paul Nicholls’s second string. I wonder if he has the class. After all go back to last years Cheltenham festival. DEAR VILLEZ ran and fell in the Jewson Novice Handicap. Compare that with ALBERTAS RUN and AIR FORCE ONE and others that were running in the Grade 1 Sun Alliance Chase and only have to concede a couple of lbs to him. I just don’t see him as good enough.

I don’t want to go with OEDIPE. He is a 6yo seasonal debutant. I haven’t got a big problem with that at all as State of Play (2006) was one. However if you look at the seasonal debutants that have won this race – they had all ran in better class than he has. They were all more experienced. They all ran far better than he did last time and none of them stepped up as far in trip. OEDIPE is a notorious poor work horse so he is has hardly been galloping the house down. He is also a French Bred and there hasn’t been many of those win the race. I think he is out of his depth and I worry his trainer says he is a “hard horse to get fit”.

ISLAND FLYER

One the face of it this horse has a strong profile and comes from a decent trial race and its easy to understand why there has been lots of ante post money for him this week. That said the value has probably gone now. The one trends worry I have with him is his class. ISLAND FLYER is rated 132 and that would make him the lowest rated winner in at least 20 years. Every winner since the 1980′s was rated 135 or more and its just in the back of my mind that off bottom weight in the last two furlongs he could just be fighting to get home in this class on soft ground and his low rating worries me. After all 9 months ago as he was winning a cheap novice chase others were running and winning Sun Alliances and his flaw could be whether he has the class to win.

AIR FORCE ONE

This horse must have a great chance. Statistically he is not unlike One Man who won this in 1994 and both came from the Sun Alliance and AIR FORCE ONE achieved more in that race and had more experience. Both were 6 year olds with 1 handicap run and one run that season. One Man (1994) won with 10st though and AIR FORCE ONE has a much bigger weight to carry. Recent Hennessy’s have shown high weights are fine in this race and AIR FORCE ONE has a strong overall profile. There are two issues to consider. One may be the general theory that he may be best on right handed tracks. The other is whether he wants soft ground. In terms of the Left Handed Track I don’t think there is enough evidence to suggest that. He has ran 5 times on left handed tracks. Even if you ignore his win at Fontwell when odds on in a Figure 8 track you cant draw any conclusions. His other races were 2-5-5-6 on left handed tracks. One of the times he was 50/1. Another was his chasing debut pitched into a Grade 2 chase. He was well beaten in the Sun Alliance at Cheltenham but his 2nd was also there in the Spa Hurdle at the festival and there is nothing wrong with that. The track wouldn’t be a major concern for me as the evidence is not compelling. In terms of the ground you would worry if it was soft. His connections have given excuses before for defeats blaming soft and dead ground. There has to be a slight stamina doubt on the ground as well so he isn’t bomb proof. I also don’t like the fact he has run on the Flat before albeit in Germany as very few Hennessy winners started racing on the flat. I see him and BIG BUCKS as the main contenders for the “saver” but much as I greatly respect his chance I prefer others marginally.

BIG BUCKS

Initially I felt that the favourite was worth opposing as a 5 year old but I would not be too dogmatic about that now. I have had a big rethink about 5 year olds as they have won similar other races at this time of year. BIG BUCKS is a 5 year old. The Hennessy was first run in 1957 and the 51 renewals of the race have never thrown up a 5 year old winner. That must be considered a problem for BIG BUCKS but not many have tried – just 4 in the last two decades and hardly any of the 5 year olds that have run have been fancied and they have had a 3rd with Eudipe in 1997. I couldn’t make him a negative on the back of a statistic that’s admittedly worrying but more importantly not proven. I think trip and ground demand he is a saver

SELECTION

ALBERTAS RUN

I really fancy this horse. He is trying to be the 3rd Sun Alliance Chase winner to win this race in the last 4 seasons after Denman and Trablogan did the double. On his profile he is Similar to Kings Road the 2000 winner in that they both ran in the Cheltenham Bumper early in their career and then the Sun Alliance. He is an even closer type to 2005 winner Trablogan who was also owned by Trevor Hemmings as ALBERTAS RUN is. Trablogan (2005) also ran in the Champion Bumper and won the Sun Alliance as well and ALBERTAS RUN attempts to do the same. He is the right age and a second season chaser. Statistically the only trend he fails was that he wasn’t 1-2-3 last time out. He was 4th of 4 on his seasonal debut but I can forgive him that. He probably was not trained for that race. The trip was too short and he met a top class horse. He was clearly unfit and that was the same Carlisle chase that his trainer ran Exotic Dancer a couple of years ago and he flopped that running a lifeless race before winning the Paddy Power Gold cup next time out. ALBERTAS run holds two wins over Air Force One and has a touch of class as a Sun Alliance Chase winner. His owner will want to win this race again and I think ALBERTAS RUN is good value to win the race. His chance will come down to the ground. If its not too soft he will win for me and if it is it lets in Big Bucks the saver.

Regards

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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