Can he make it three profitable Saturday’s in a row?

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Weather affected day and It’s Southwell that has
the most coverage as the only card that was safe.

I’m surprised an 11f handicap produces my best bet but
the 2.55pm may be best left to FOLLOW THE FLAG
a horse I have being saying for a while was well treated
and looking at his last run I think he needs this distance.
Decided against putting him up as a bet because I know
my angles in 11f handicaps are awkward and messy and
there is every chance a non runner killed my each way
options. I do see FOLLOW THE FLAG as my best bet.

S o u t h w e l l   2.55

7/2 Royal Swain, 7/2 Stanley Rigby, 9/2 Sail Home
6/1 Ostentation, 6/1 Rajamand, 10/1 Follow The Flag
10/1 Hits Only Jude, 12/1 Magic Echo.

This is an 11f Handicap for 0-75 rated horses. This is a
nightmare distance to sort out statistically as I have said
countless times before. I have few 11f races to work with
but I ran all these horses through some statistical tests to get a shortlist.
The horses with long absences struggled a bit and fell short.
So did the horses that were well beaten over 12f last time.
There are stamina doubts to consider with horses like HITS ONLY JUDE.
In the end I felt the most promising profiles were both FOLLOW THE FLAG
and SAIL HOME and whilst neither looked brilliant I can at least find a winner
like both which is a reasonable start. I have flagged up FOLLOW THE FLAG 4
times recently as well handicapped and he may well be able to win over this distance.
He appeals most with Sail Home the horse I fear the most. I could have SAIL HOME
as the saver in the race but I’d rather bet FOLLOW THE FLAG E/W as
I think he looked like he was crying out for a slower and
longer surface last time at Lingfield. He only just coped
with a faster track at a Mile but stayed on very well late
in the race and I think he could well take this race today.

Selection

FOLLOW THE FLAG 11/2 Ladbrokes – Sporting Bet  Each Way

.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral Bet365 William Hill

===============================

This was provided by Guy Ward aka The Mathematician

To visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Free Horse Racing Tips

Doncaster favourites

Goodwood favourites

Hamilton favourites

Lingfield favourites

Newmarket favourites

Thirsk favourites

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

==================================================

This information was taken from the excellent RacingTrends Service.

Shown above is actually just a small portion of the Saturday message from RacingTrends. In addition to horse racing statistics RacingTrends also provide long term profitable systematic lays selections which are a bit more akin to a normal tipping service.

HINT: RacingTrends  will on occasion offer a free trial to sports betting blog subscribers. Why not Register Here for Free so you know when such a deal is available.

This is typical style of Guy’s daily output for clients there.

As you can see he knows a lot and works very hard.

Quite a few of his clients have been with him not for a month or six months even but for over 5 years !

=====================

No Strong Bet Today

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2 Bets Today

Lingfield 4.55

SEEK THE FAIR LAND 8/1

Win Bet

Thirsk 6.30

DESERT STRIKE 8/1

Each Way Bet

* No Message Tomorrow *

This is the 11th message in a row without a break and
National Hunt cards tomorrow give me a chance for a
break and as I’m flagging now and tired it’s a good time.

Never really liked the cards on this day as there are so
many smaller field conditions races. The evening cards
are not as good as normal as fast ground has reduced a
few of the fields to uncompetetive races. I have decided
to go with two chosen bets on the day and both are big
prices in open handicaps. SEEK THE FAIR LAND has
a decent chance and looks overpriced to me but there’s
no margin for error in this race and we may need to be
lucky despite a good draw. DESERT STRIKE also has
a reasonable chance. Unusual bet for me as statistically
he is just average but I was given a good word for him
earlier in the week and having watched his last run in
the understanding he wasn’t fancied last time I liked a
performance that showed he had a lot in hand. Think
he is worth a bet as there are lots of horses I dislike in
this race and there are 4 places available. Worth a bet.

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Message Thoughts

Not that many places that I want to go today. I have a
hatred of Ascot and find it beats me more often than it
helps me so nothing there except the Victoria Cup stats
and I am only doing those as its the showcase handicap
of the day. I also hate the Haydock mixed card as usual.

There a lots of races I can’t get serious in. I dont want
to get dragged into smaller field races. The Maidens or
the trial races , conditions races or the pattern contests
are all unpleasant. I have looked at a few of these from
a safe distance but these rarely throw up stronger bets.

Far too many of those today and not that many suit me
today. It is normally a weak Saturday for us. Only doing
a short portfolio of races I feel I can offer something in.

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Friday’s Summary

One bet and a winner in GALA CASINO STAR which was
welcome after an unsteady few days. Hopefully that was a
sign of things to come. I thought the message was the best
for a while. Seemed to be lots of winners in there.
Overall  a strong message and with quite a lot going our way
it felt like it worked on a day I was forced into summarising more.

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P R O F I L E S   &  P R E V I E W S

Nottingham 1.50

9/4 Select Committee, 7/2 Secret Venue, 5/1 Absa Lutte
6/1 Atlantic Beach, 7/1 Black Baccara, 10/1 Bilash
14/1 Micky Mac, 14/1 Yurituni.

Unpleasant 5f Handicap to start with. Weak profiles for the
likes of BILASH and MICKY MAC. I found YURITUNI not
safe enough and unlike any winners. SELECT COMMITTEE
lacks a bit of backclass and because of that I just failed to get him
into safe statistical territory as all similar horses needed 3 runs that year.
I felt the same with SECRET VENUE who’s younger but has just
1 run this year. I am oppose these horses. I think one of 3 horses should be considered here

* BLACK BACCARA – Well raced filly with chances
* ABSA LUTTE – Older Mare but offers enough
* ATLANTIC BEACH – Solid enough profile

Lingfield 2.10

Seasonal debutants have won the last 6 Chartwell Stakes
but’s time for a change now. DEVER DREAM is having
her first run but the only winners as experienced as her
had by then achieved Group 1 Class before and she lacks
that. PYRRHA and TROPICAL PARADISE also racing
first time out are a little bit exposed to be doing that so
with all 3 of these badly drawn I expect the winner will
have run this year. No 3 year old that had raced at least
5 times before won with under 2 runs that season which
is a problem for EUCHARIST and no 3yo has won this
coming from 6f like PERFECT TRIBUTE. Overall the
safest choice looks to be FLAMBEAU the favourite.

Lingfield 2.40

100/30 Field Of Miracles, 4/1 Date With Destiny
5/1 Palm Pilot, 6/1 Zain Al Boldan, 7/1 Always The Lady
10/1 Galivant, 12/1 Al Mayasah, 12/1 Saint Helena
20/1 Barathea Dancer.

The Oaks trial looks destined for a horse that’s ran this
year. No past winners came from 3yo handicaps which
is why I reject ZAIN AL BOLDAN – SAINT HELENA
and PALM PILOT. The horses winning 10f maidens
all had more experience than ALWAYS THE LADY
and more runs that year. DATE WITH DESTINY is
respected but I think FIELD OFF MIRACLES might
improve past her and she would be my choice.

Nottingham 2.55

9/4 Shernando, 5/2 Hallstatt, 9/2 Bollin Greta
6/1 Emrani, 6/1 Wild Desert, 12/1 Daylami Dreams

This is a 14f Handicap. I looked at 112 similar races at this time of year.
Horses aged 4 coming from 3yo handicaps first time out are 2-22.
However fillies were 2-2 and Males had a 0-20 record and SHERNANDO
fails that as a male. The two winners also had much more experience and less
weight so I am avoiding SHERNANDO. Also out are BOLLIN GRETA
and DAYLAMI DREAMS both older seasonal debutants and not like any of the 112 winners.

These are my negatives.

EMRANI – Hard to read perhaps didnt do enough last time
WILD DESERT – Very hard to read but a possible
HALLSTATT – Limitations but easily the Fittest horse

Lingfield 3.10

The Derby Trial is another messy trials race.
HURRICANE HIGGINS would be my choice.

Ascot 3.25

Totesport Victoria Cup (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 7f

8/1 Horseradish, 10/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 14/1 Al Muheer
14/1 Brae Hill, 14/1 Shamandar, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Excellent Guest, 16/1 Lowther, 16/1 Nasri, Lutine Bell
20/1 Fathsta, Himalya, 20/1 Mon Cadeaux, 20/1 Zero Money
25/1 Gouray Girl, 25/1 Noble Citizen, 25/1 Sunraider
28/1 Layla´s Hero, 33/1 Advanced, 33/1 Bay Knight
33/1 Bravo Echo, 33/1 Dhaular Dhar, 33/1 Douze Points
33/1 Golden Desert, 33/1 Manassas, 33/1 Oasis Dancer,
33/1 Parisian Pyramid, Rulesn´regulations, Corporal Maddox.

* The Victoria Cup is a 7f Handicap for 0-110 horses
* Since 1990 there has been 18 renewals of this race
* Avoid horses with 3 or more runs that season
* Avoid horses from 5f races
* Oppose horses aged 7 or more (0-46)
* Oppose exposed horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Oppose exposed 6 year olds with 1 run this season
* Oppose exposed horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Avoid fillies who are 0-23 in this race
* Oppose exposed horses from 8f races if 1 run this year
* Oppose exposed horses from 6f or shorter
* Oppose exposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time
* Avoid any horses from a Conditions race (0-41)
* Avoid 4 year olds with 13 + runs unless with Group 1 form
* Seasonal debutants have a 3-95 record
* All 3 were male aged 4 or 5
* They all came from 7f races and had 7-20 runs
* Horses with 6 or more career wins are 0-71
* Horses with 9st 5lbs or more had a poor 1-73 record
* Horses from 6f races won 4 renewals
* All 3 that did it had 1 run this year
* None that did it ran within 2 weeks (0-29)
* Only 2 past winners ran in Group class before
* None were aged 6 or more
* Those doing that with under 21 career runs were 0-38
* Horses that come from 8f or more won 4 races
* Those that had 13 or more runs doing this were 1-73
* That winner ran within 2 weeks

SHORTLIST

* HORSERADISH – similar to 1999 winner – Draws a worry
* ZERO MONEY – Statistically fine if he is fit enough
* BRAE HILL – Acceptable profile

Nottingham 3.30

Hard race and I couldnt sort it.
BOUNTY BOX – Dont like the profile much
BEYOND DESIRE – Definate chance
KHOR SHEED – Acceptable
ANNE OF KIEV – Unmatchable but interesting
There is one bet that I see worth having if playing
ANNE OF KIEV as a Place Only Bet at evens

Haydock 3.40

6/1 Remember Now, 10/1 Knight In Purple
10/1 Tatispout, 12/1 Ballybriggan, 12/1 Higgy´s Ragazzo
12/1 Pires, 12/1 Rebel Dancer, 14/1 Jubail, 16/1 Eradicate
16/1 Hunterview, 16/1 Pokfulham, 20/1 Barizan
20/1 Chaninbar, 20/1 Drill Sergeant, 20/1 Safari Journey
25/1 Rio Gael, 33/1 Andhaar, 33/1 Olympian, 33/1 Orsippus
33/1 Tarkari, 40/1 Caravel, 40/1 Mason Hindmarsh
50/1 Maoi Chinn Tire.

* The Swinton Handicap Hurdle is over 2m
* Always play with a few trends and shortlist
* Horses aged 7 or more have struggled
* You ideally want at least 4 hurdle starts
* You want a horse with under 13 hurdle starts
* Your horse must have won in their last 6 races
* Avoid all horses from handicaps in Class 3 or less
* You want a horse thats ran within 80 days
* All past winners had ran in a Class 2 race before
* Horses are strong coming from Novice Hurdles
* They are best with under 4-8 runs when 1-2-3-4 last time
* Most winners had 11st or less weight
* The two I shortlisted from these are below
* JUBAIL  – REBEL DANCER

Haydock 4.10

15/8 Victoire De Lyphar, 11/4 Society Rock
3/1 Bated Breath, 4/1 Royal Rock, 20/1 Tamagin.

This is a Conditions race over 6f with a history
going back to 1997. Dandy Nicholls keeps trying
and failing to win this race and runs the seasonal
debutant VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR. Only 2 past
winners won first time out and none were 4yo’s
like him. BATED BREATH is very sexy and in
the Cammidge Trophy we could clearly see how
unlucky he was. Thats not to say he would have
won though. If you take the 4 year olds that ran
in Listed races with 1 run this season you find a
few winners. SOCIETY ROCK shares the profile.
Of the pair I prefer SOCIETY ROCK. He is from
a better trial race. He has more experience which
has been an advantage and he has more backclass
as well and overall he fits in much better to past
winners than BATED BREATH. I wouldnt rule
out ROYAL ROCK who is almost right and not
too dissimilar to the 2002 winner who was older
but overall the best profile is SOCIETY ROCK.

Lingfield 4.55

More Live Football At Totesport.com Handicap
(Turf) (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 7f

9/2 Bowmaker, 11/2 Den´s Gift, 13/2 Space Station
8/1 Buxton, 8/1 Wilfred Pickles, 10/1 Free For All
10/1 Seek The Fair Land, 12/1 Red Yarn, 14/1 Aldermoor
16/1 Leadenhall Lass, 16/1 Nezami, 16/1 Slugger O´toole
20/1 Aye Aye Digby.

* This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-84
* There are 156 similar races at this time of year
* You want a high draw in these races
* Since 2008 there were 23 Handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2-3 had a poor 1-73 record
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 11-5-16-12-18-6-14-10-11-15-17-8-10
* AYE AYE DIGBY is out drawn 1
* No exposed horse won absent more than 7 months
* ALDERMOOR doesnt appeal in stall 2
* He is an exposed debutant and may need the run
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE has a poor draw in stall 3
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE is exposed and first time out
* RED YARN is not drawn well in stall 4
* She is a 4yo filly racing first time out
* 4yo fillies doing that with 7 + runs had a 0-38 record
* FREE FOR ALL is 4 and last ran in a Maiden last year
* Horses doing that with 2 or more runs were 0-15
* I don’t like her inexperience or his stable
* LEADENHALL LASS is a mare with 1 run this year
* Mares with 1 run this season have a 2-61 record
* None of these won or placed last time out
* She find it hard to follow up with just 1 run
* She won a small field 0-74 last time and this is better
* BOWMAKER has a good draw but a questionable profile
* I looked at 4yo Males with under 13 career starts
* BOWMAKER is 4 and has only raced 7 times
* Those 4 year olds with 1-2-3 runs that year were 2-73
* Not a good record and both winners had Class 2 form
* Those like BOWMAKER who didnt were 0-48
* NEZAMI is respected despite being underraced
* I cant find a similar winner his age
* Not exposed with 1 run this year and an absence
* I Suspect he will need 1 more run this season
* WILFRED PICKLES is 5 and drops down in distance
* No problem doing that but most winners had more backclass
* He has no form beyond this class and it hurts his chance
* So far he has lost in all 15 races on turf
* All came from lower handicap marks as well
* His 42 day absence hurts him as well
* I also wonder if the ground may be too quick
* Given all that and stall 5 of 13 he isnt for me
* BUXTON is fine statistically
* I just question whether he is up to this class
* Most of his runs/wins are against slightly weaker horses
* He is up in class today as well
* One or two may have more talent
* He seems to need to go round a bend as well

SHORTLIST

* DEN´S GIFT has a decent profile
* He is 7 with 3 runs this year running well last time
* I found 3 winners with his profile
* All 3 did have a bit less weight
* He is also 0-19 on Grass and has one of the weaker riders
* I see him as shortlistable though

* SPACE STATION is a 5yo male down from 8f
* SPACE STATION was well beaten last time 5 days ago
* He caught the eye last time but he often does
* I ran his profile carefully
* I found 1 similar winner with slight differences
* That winner had just over a weeks break not under
* That winner had less weight as well
* He didnt come from the sand either
* He isnt that well handicapped either
* He will also have to make sure he runs prominently
* He could throw away a good draw if he doesnt

* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a strong profile
* Male 5 year old exposed with 2 runs this season
* Coming from a 7f handicap with Class 2 backclass
* I found 4 similar winners with that profile
* Those not beaten more than 10 lengths were best
* Those not winning last time were best
* Similar horses had a 2-5 record
* All his wins are on Sand but hes had few turf oppurtunities
* Last time on Grass he was 3rd in a 0-95 Handicap
* That was a much better race and he was out of the weights
* Absent more than 10 weeks before that race as well
* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a serious chance

Thirsk 6.00

Not enough of these 6f sellers to draw any firm conclusions
but I would rather have the older horses especially if having a recent run.
Last years 3rd BONNIE PRINCE BLUE has a sound chance and MARK ANTHONY could also go well.
Its easier to go with MARK ANTHONY on his last run but just
on profiles BONNIE PRINCE BLUE comes out best.

Warwick 6.15

My gut says CHOICE OF REMARK
My stats say No as no similar winner had 4 + runs

Thirsk 6.30

5/1 We´ll Deal Again, 13/2 Desert Strike, 8/1 Mullglen
9/1 River Falcon, 10/1 Bossy Kitty, 10/1 Chosen One
10/1 Dancing Freddy, 10/1 Sir Nod, 12/1 Leonid Glow
14/1 Clear Ice, 14/1 Mandalay King, 16/1 Incomparable
20/1 Sea Salt, BelinSky, 33/1 Ace Of Spies, 66/1 Sea Rover.

* This is a 6f Handicap
* I found the following to all be negatives
* BOSSY KITTY – INCOMPARABLE – SEA SALT
* The above 3 have hideous draws
* RIVER FALCON too old for one run this year
* LEONID GLOW – Absent too long as a mare
* SEA ROVER – BELINSky both weak
* ACE OF SPIES doesnt offer enough
* CLEAR ICE – No 4yo won from a seller
* ACE OF SPIES is unsafe
* WE´LL DEAL AGAIN exposed 4yo from 5f
* Similar horses were 1-59 that winner had more backclass
* DANCING FREDDY fails the same angles
* CHOSEN ONE – Lack of backclass troubles me
* MULLGLEN – Exposed 5yo 1 run this year from 5f
* Similar horses had a 0-17 record which troubles me
* MANDALAY KING – Unimpressive profile
* SIR NOD – Age and absence leaves him vulnerable

SELECTION

* DESERT STRIKE – Shortlisting him
* Not because he is statistically sound he is just average
* I have had a tip for him from a good source
* Very eyecatching on video last time as well

Thirsk 7.00

* Couldnt sort this race out
* I would not have backed these
* Lady Chaparral – Too inexperienced for 4yo filly
* The Caped Crusader – Not overkeen from 3yo handicap

Thirsk 7.30

13/2 Trans Sonic, 8/1 More Than Many, 8/1 Mujaadel
8/1 Our Boy Barrington, 8/1 Ravi River, 10/1 Legal Legacy
10/1 Rosbay, 14/1 Emeralds Spirit, 14/1 Fazza, 16/1 Mozayada
16/1 Tobrata, 20/1 Apache Warrior, 20/1 Call Of Duty 20/1 Hill Tribe,
20/1 Red Scintilla, 33/1 Baltimore Jack 33/1 Chambers, 33/1 Fifty Moore.

* This is a Mile Handicap
* I looked at all Handicaps here with 12-18 runners
* There were 23 of these races since 2009
* The best place to be drawn is stalls 3-14
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 7 6 7 9 4 5 3 10 7 4 12 4 3 8 6 6 9
* LEGAL LEGACY – Profile not good enough to ignore draw
* EMERALDS SPIRIT – Negative profile and draw
* MUJAADEL won a 7f handicap last time
* Horses doing that had a 1-40 record trying to follow up
* That winner had 4 runs this year he has two
* He looks unsafe to me
* OUR BOY BARRINGTON – comes from 3yo handicap
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* RED SCINTILLA – Fillies from 3yo handicaps are 0-31
* TOBRATA – lacks backclass from 7f with 1 run this year
* ROSBAY – down from 10f and 1 run this year
* Thats not a safe profile and he is unsteady
* BALTIMORE JACK – CHAMBERS look weak
* FIFTY MOORE – Not easy to like first time
* CALL OF DUTY ran too badly last time
* HILL TRIBE – Didnt offer enough
* APACHE WARRIOR – Too inexperienced
* MOZAYADA – comes out badly
* MORE THAN MANY – respected but not quite right
* RAVI RIVER – respected but old to be following up
* FAZZA – Strong runner
* TRANS SONIC comes out well
* Exposed 8yo coming from 7f with 3 + runs that year
* Beaten last time but not losing more than 10 lengths
* Similar horses had a 3-5 record

SHORTLIST

TRANS SONIC – Win Bet 8/1

FAZZA – Saver Bet 12/1

Warwick 7.45

This is a 3yo handicap over 7f. I have Freckenham as a
negative failing a 0-36 statistic.  Shostakovich was not
able to be matched to a winner. Tamareen just failed as
he didn’t have the backclass and Nawaashi is supossed to
be the owners second string. I don’t like the race but the
best profile was ROSSETTI. Horses with his profile had
a 6 W 2 record so I will go with him but dislike this race.

Warwick 8.15 – I wouldnt oppose APRIL FOOL

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
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9/2 Karaka Jack, 5/1 Dubai Dynamo, 6/1 Northern Fling
7/1 Arry´s Orse, 8/1 Reel Buddy Star, 8/1 Summer Dancer
10/1 Everymanforhimself, Ginger Ted, 12/1 Illustrious Prince 20/1 Qadar, 25/1 Arabian Pride, 25/1 Bond Fastrac.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* REEL BUDDY STAR is exposed absent 7 + months
* Thats a lot for horse on a career mark
* Ignore the horses from 3yo handicaps
* BOND FASTRAC – ARABIAN PRIDE fail that
* Horses drawn in stall 1-2 have underperformed
* 30 races here since 2008 with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2 have a 1-56 record
* SUMMER DANCER has a bad draw and modest profile
* GINGER TED has a bad draw and an unsafe profile
* QADAR is 0-27 on Grass and vulnerable
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF – Weight and absence is a worry
* ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE – Not completely out of this
* I dont like the massive stable downgrade he had this winter
* I wouldnt see him as progressive because of that

SHORTLIST

* NORTHERN FLING – Shaky profile but a possible
* I’d like another run this year or a shorter absence
* ARRY´S ORSE – Almost right good enough to respect
* KARAKA JACK – Well treated and good profile
* DUBAI DYNAMO – Serious chance back on fast ground
* KARAKA JACK and DUBAI DYNAMO stand out to me
* DUBAI DYNAMO is a saver
* KARAKA is a win bet

——————————————–

Provided by Guy Ward.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

He is about as fashionable as Drink Driving looking at all other opinions
but many recent winners were and if he can keep in contention for the
first circuit you never know and he still looks a very big price to
me at 33/1 so fingers crossed.

A copy of my analysis from last sunday is below.

AINTREE 4.15

John Smith´s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+) 4m4f

* The Grand National has 17 renewals since 1992
* There are also 75 Handicaps in Febuary-March-April
* Thats 75 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more
* Thats 75 Handicap Chases with at least 12 runners
* Thats 75 Handicap Chases in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* This includes the last 17 Grand nationals
* It includes the Scottish , Irish and Midlands Nationals

ABSENCES

* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 20 winners all ran within 7 weeks
* The last 20 winners were absent this many days
23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25
* What is also significant is the absence of the Runner Ups
* Horses 2nd in the National had the following days absence
* 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 16 of the past 20 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks
* There are over 120 English horses absent 7 + weeks
* None of these have won and I would avoid long absences

* BACKSTAGE has been absent since last July
* CALGARY BAY has been absent 70 days
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE has been absent 101 days
* STATE OF PLAY has been absent 304 days
* HELLO BUD has been absent 84 days
* Other horses that fail this include the following
* Majestic Concorde -  Or Noir De Somoza  – Dooneys Gate
* The Tother One- Nedzers Return – Grand Slam Hero
* Thats Rhythm – Frankie Figg – Our Monty – Starzaan
* Royal Rosa – Putney Bridge -  Imoncloudnine

HORSES AGED 7

* The last 7 year old winner of this race was back in 1940
* Horses aged 7 and unlikely to even complete the course
* QUINZ has to be eliminated aged 7
* QUINZ is not going to be 7 until May anyway
* He is no more than 6 years 11 months old
* I dont see how I can bet him given the record of 7yo’s
* Quolibet – Sagalyrique – Galant Nuit are out aged 7 as well

8 YEAR OLDS

* Only 2 of the last 26 winners were 8 year olds
* Horses aged 8 havent the best recent record
* If you bet an 8 year old make sure it is actually 8
* All recent 8yo winners were foaled early before the race
* Those foaled in Mid april and Beyond are not officially 8
* Bindaree – Party Politics – Corbiere are the last 8yo winners
* They were all foaled early the year they were born
* They were all aged 8 and a few months
* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal
* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8
* They are just 7 and a few months old
* WHAT A FRIEND is 8 and a May Foal
* He is technically still a 7 year old
* Other horses that fail this statistic are as follows
* Majestic Concorde – Our Monty – Belon Gale
* Junior – I’moncloudnine

HORSES AGED 13

* Horses aged 13 can also be opposed with confidence
* HELLO BUD fails that
* Especially when so lightly raced this season

PREPARATION (1)

* Exposed horses struggle with under 4 runs that season
* They have a 1-184 record in 75 Similar races
* The only winner was Grey Abbey – 2000 Scottish National
* I would demand at least 4 runs a year from exposed horses
* The Following Horses all fail this important statistic
* BALLABRIGS -  STATE OF PLAY -  HELLO BUD
* BACKSTAGE – CHIEF DAN GEORGE – SILVER BY NATURE
* NICHE MARKET – OSCAR TIME
* BLUESEA CRACKER – ARBOR SUPREME
* Other horses that fail this statistic are as follows
* Ballytrim -Faasel – Dev – Starzaan – Toby Jug
* Comply Or Die – Frankie Figg – Junior – Royal Rosa

PREPARATION (2)

* In the 75 similar races I looked at horses with 13 + runs
* These horses struggle badly with just 1-2 runs that season
* Whilst horses with 21 or more starts need 4 + runs that year
* Those with 13 or more runs need at least 3 + runs that year
* Those that did not have a 0-144 record
* Horses with 1-2 runs this season should be avoided
* The last 23 winners had the following runs that season
* 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6

* The Following Horses all fail this important statistic
* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB who is favourite for the race
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE fancied as well
* Also failing this statistic are the following
* Our Monty – Majestic Concorde – Dooneys Gate
* Roll Along – Ornais – Surface To Air – Faasel
* Dev – Toby Jug- Gallant Nuit – Treacle

* Seasonal Debutants should be avoided
* BACKSTAGE hasnt run this year under rules
* Our Monty – Starzaan also have that against them

PREPARATION (3)

* Horses coming from a small field struggled
* Horses from races with under 9 runners were 0-104
* Not a strong statistic but worth bearing in mind
* BALLABRIGGS fails that
* THE TOTHER ONE also fails that
* Northern Alliance – Always Waining also fails that
* Skippers Brig

CLASS

* Class is very important in a National Winner
* The last 10 winners all won in at least Listed Grade before
* The last 20 winners had all ran in Graded Class Before
* The vasy majority of the runner ups also did this
* The only ones that did not were very lightly raced
* All exposed horses must have Graded Form
* In15 years no exposed horse won without Grade 1 form
* I would not want a horse without Graded Class form
* BALLABRIGGS fails that
* He’s now exposed and has no form in Listed or Graded races
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE has no Graded Form
* Other horses that fail this statistic are as follows
* Dooneys Gate – Nezders Return – Surface To Air
* Our Monty -Belon Gale – Grand Slam Hero – Putney Bridge

WEIGHT

* I think we should ignore the weight statistics
* Last years winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Horses with 11st 6lbs have struggled overall
* Only Red Rum had won with more weight in recent years
* I would not get too hung up with weight though
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* Horses with 11st 5lbs or more won in 1965 1957 1954 1050
* The Precedents are there are last years winner showed that
* I wont be ruling any horse out on their weight

WINS THAT SEASON

* You dont want a horse with 2 or more wins that season
* Past Winners had the following number of wins that year
* 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0
* Only 1997 winner Lord Gyliene won more than once that year
* BALLABRIGGS fails this statistic
* QUINZ fails that as well
* WEST END ROCKER fails that
* Other horses that fail this statistic are as follows
* Midnight Chase – King Fontaine – Golden Kite
* Skippers Brig – Putney Bridge – Sagalyrique

CHASING EXPERIENCE

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 20 winners had the following Chase runs
* 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 Chase runs and two more had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winner
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I would be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts
* The following horses had under 10 Chase Starts
* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB is favourite with 8 Chase starts
* Thats only really 7 Chases as he had one early fall
* THE TOTHER ONE only has 9 Chase starts
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE has only had 7 Chase starts
* QUINZ has only had 7 Chase starts
* Other horses with fewer Chase runs than ideal are:
* Synchronised – Majestic Concorde – Nezders Return
* King Fontaine – Ornais – Surface To Air -Our Monty
* Skippers Brig – Giles Cross – Starzaan-Gallant Nuit -Junior

JUMPING ABILITY

* You want a decent Jumper of course
* The last 11 winners had not fallen more than twice before
* I wouldnt rule a horse out on this statistic
* It is something to bear in Mind
* BIG FELLA THANKS fell or unseated in 3 of 15 chases
* SILVER BY NATURE has fallen in 3 of 14 chase starts
* NOTRE PERE has fallen 3 times before
* ARBOR SUPREME  has fallen 3 times before
* The following horses fail this as well
* Quolibet – Frankie Figg – The Sawyer – Pomme Tiepy

CURRENT FORM

* You want a horse that was 1-2-3 in at least one of the last 6 runs
* Horse that havent done that score badly in all similar races
* COMPLY OR DIE has not managed that in 6 runs
* ROLL ALONG also fails that

STEPPING UP IN DISTANCE

* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is awful
* This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter
* No exposed horse won from a 2m 6f Chase or shorter
* The following horses have this to overcome
* BIG FELLA THANKS has to come from 2m 4f
* NICHE MARKET also comes up in distance
* Or Noir De Somoza – Dooneys Gate – Scotsirish
* Northern Alliance – In Compliance – Santa’s Son
* Askthemaster – Dev – Starzaan – Duers – Treacle

STAMINA

* Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
* The following horses have this to overcome
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE hasnt won at 3m yet
* The following also fail this statistic
* Or Noir De Somoza – Scotsirish -  Nezders Return
* Quolibet – In Compliance – Santa’s Son – Piraya
* Faasel – Putney Bridge -  Askthemaster -Dev
* Starzaan  – Duers

HANDICAP CHASE FORM

* Recent winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
*  5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
* Every recent winner has ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
* Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well
* They won 12 of the last 18 renewals
* I would like to see at least 4 previous Handicap Chase runs
* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB is favourite
* He has only ran in 2 Handicap Chases before
* WHAT A FRIEND has only ran in 1 handicap chase
* TIDAL BAY has raced in just 2 handicap chases
* OSCAR TIME has raced in just 3 handicap chases
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE has just 1 handicap chase runs
* The following horses also fail this
* Synchronised – Majestic Concorde – Or Noir De Somoza
* Scotsirish – Quolibet – Roll Along – Ornais – Junior
* Our Monty – Surface To Air – Starzaan – Toby Jug

O T H E R   A N G L E S

* Number of Handicap Chases won
* Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases
* 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
* No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases

* The last 18 winners had between 3 and 7 Chase wins before
* They had  4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins

C O N C L U S I O N

Whilst he is progressive THE MIDNIGHT CLUB has plenty
to prove as favourite when lightly raced and having just two runs
this year and at the price I am against him especially as he has just
two runs in Handicap Chases losing both. Others I dislike at the head
of the market as I see their preparation as wrong include
WHAT A FRIEND – STATE OF PLAY – BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE -
NICHE MARKET – QUINZ – HELLO BUD – ARBOR SUPREME -
BALLABRIGGS.
I’m against MERIGO as he doesnt look about to win and there must be a big form and fitness question.

POSSIBLES

OSCAR TIME doesnt offer enough given his price as He is
failing one of the strong stats. BACKSTAGE is technically
wrong with an absence but there is a temptation to ignore
that as he is Irish and has been Point To Pointing and that counts for something.
There will be a serious stamina doubt with him but you can argue he comes
from the same sire as Mon Mome the 2009 winner. I shouldnt select him
but he’s one of those that could win and it wouldnt shock me.
I dont  agree with people who say BIG FELLA THANKS does not stay.
He has been 4th and 6th in the last 2 Nationals.
Once when Under 7 years old and again when under 8 years old  and in
Neither race was he remotely equipped to win this race failing several angles
and his two performances in the race were remarkable. I really dont like the
fact he comes from 2m 4f but he does have a chance in this race.
Given a weight of 11st 10lbs DONT PUSH IT is bound to fail a weight statistic
but thats all he does fail and having won this last season and having promised
myself not to worry about the weight too much I think he is shortlistable much
as he has a stiff mark and the last time he ran over fences was in this race last
year which I dont see as an advantage.

WEST END ROCKER has plenty on his side considering
he is a 50/1 chance but I prefer others. I think Mares are
quite interesting in this race but BLUESEA CRACKER is
exposed and only has 3 runs this season and that makes
her unlike any recent winners. SILVER BY NATURE is
a big danger. He has been very impressive and probably
underestimated by many but he isnt for me mainly down
to the likely ground and the fact he is short of runs this
season. I dont see VIC VENTURI winning with so much
weight at his age but he passes most of the better angles.
So to does KILLYGLEN much as he is complicated and
has only finished in 5 of his last 9 Chases a big worry. I
think TIDAL BAY has a good chance and I have backed
him as well. He has a great Aintree record and has never
fallen before. Throw in Bags of Class and 50/1 there are
worse bets and he could run very well for an old rogue.

PROVISIONAL SELECTION

CHARACTER BUILDING 33/1

Getting his profile out of the way first have a similar
type winning. In 2004 Amberleigh House won when
an exposed 11 year old with 5 runs that season. It’s
also interesting that Amberleigh House had his prep
run in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster and thats
where CHARACTER BUILDING last ran. There is
a similar profile there and enough to be confident in
CHARACTER BUILDING that he is the right type.

CHARACTER BUILDING came 7th in the 2010
race beaten 37 lengths. That does not worry me for
several reasons. He simply was not fit. He had won
at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival. He ran just twice
in the next 15 Months and by the 2010 National
he had only had 2 runs that season which is simply
not enough for a horse like him. He went there as
unfit and underprepared and out of form. There is
more to his run than meets the eye. He jumped all
the way round. This is a horse who has never fallen
in his life before and that counts for plenty. In last
years race he proved he handled the track. He was
mid division most of the way. Some will say that
he is unable to lay up close to the front but I have
to answer that by stating he was out of form last
year and underraced that season and he wasnt fit.

I watched the video of last years Grand National.
When DON’T PUSH IT jumped the penultimate
fence in front CHARACTER BUILDING was just
3 seconds behind him staying on overtaking quite
a few horses. He then faded but he was entitled to
as he was not fit and he blew up and came home in
7th place. In last years race he was a 16/1 chance.
This year He has a considerably better profile yet
is twice the price. This year he has 5 prep runs to
go to war with 3 more than last year. He also has
7lbs less weight this year which must help. He has
twice proven himself at this distance. He’s proved
he stays marathon trips before. He finished second
in the 4m National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in
1997 when having a poor profile and badly treated
at the weights. He should have placed in this race
last year had he been fit. I see enough stamina and
Class there. CHARACTER BUILDING’s trainer is
John Quinn who’s won with 3 of his last 5 runners
and has struck form this week which must help.

So many of this years rivals are underraced and do
not have enough runs this season. The previous 23
winners had these following runs that season

4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6

CHARACTER BUILDING fits that like a Glove as
he has 5 runs. We know all past winners had under
7 wins in Handicap Chases and he does that as well.
Its also very interesting the last 18 winners of this
had 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 chase wins
and CHARACTER BUILDING fits in well with 3.
I can not find a better option and he looks the one

33/1 and 5 places at Bet365 and Stan James
VC offer 6 places but are currently 25/1

Guy Ward

****************

Guy Ward is one of the uk’s hardest working horse racing analysts.

Find out more about at service at this link Horse Racing Tips

This is the second article in a series of three all weather articles – the first being on southwell Sires In this piece I am going to look at specific race types in attempt to help you, the reader, gain that important edge over “the crowd”. Many punters are put off the all weather due to the general standard of racing – low grade handicaps, claimers and sellers are regular events on the all weather circuit, but there are plenty of positive and negative angles that once appreciated can improve your chances of making a profit. The focus of this article is these lower grade contests.

The data for this article is taken from last six years; ROI stands for return on investment; SR stands for strike rate and LTO stands for last time out. Unless otherwise stated, all profit and losses are quoted to industry starting price.

Claiming races

Market – the top three in the betting have provided just under 74% of the winners. Favourites have an especially good record in all weather claimers scoring 35.6% of the time. Indeed backing all favourites “blind” would have yielded very small losses of 4%. Indeed backing all favourites since the inception of Betfair SP would have seen you break even and that is taking commission into account. Longer priced horses have a poor record and runners priced 16/1 or bigger show significant losses. Their record reads 73 wins from 3570 qualifiers (SR 2%) showing losses of £1473.00 to (ROI -41.3%). At the completely rank outsider stage – horses priced 80/1 or bigger have produced 425 consecutive losers with just 8 of them managing a place.

Last time out – horses that won LTO go on to win again just over 25% of the time in claimers, and backing all such runners would have produced losses of around 11%. Horses that won on the all weather LTO are much better betting propositions that horses that won on the turf LTO – strike rates of 26% against 15% confirm this. Indeed, regardless of LTO position, it is an advantage to have raced on the all weather LTO rather than on the turf LTO.

Age – interestingly older horses have a better strike rate than younger ones in all age claimers. Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined strike rate of 8.7%, whereas horses aged 6 or older have a combined strike rate of 14.4%.

Sex of horse – In claimers colts, geldings and horses are 1.62 times more likely to win than fillies and mares.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Horses that are racing for a new stable in all weather claiming races score around 9% of the time, but backing all runners would have lost you about 46% (46p for every £1 wagered);

2. Maiden runners have a poor record in claimers scoring just 6% of the time and losing around 37%;

3. Horses that have recorded 2 or more course successes have a decent strike rate of 17% and backing all runners would have yielded very small losses of 2.2%;

4. Horses having their first ever racecourse outing are worth avoiding with only 7 wins from 229 qualifiers (SR 3.1%). Backing all debutants would have produced significant losses of £149.50 (ROI -65.3%);

5. Horses that raced in a claiming race last time have a strike rate of 15%; compare this to horses that raced in a selling race last time whose strike rate is under 8%;

6. The following trainers secured a strike rate of 20% or better during the 6-year study (from at least 60 runners) – Tom Dascombe, Dandy Nicholls, Kevin Ryan, Jim Boyle, Jack Pearce, Gary Moore.

Selling races

Market – the top three in the betting have provided 71.7% of the winners with favourites winning a third of all races. Backing all selling favourites would have yielded a loss of 6.8%. There are two favourite stats worth noting; firstly horses priced 8/11 or shorter have scored over 70% of the time and backing them all would have produced a profit of 10%; secondly favourites returning to the track less than 10 days since their last run have provided 89 winners from 227 (SR 39.2%) for a profit of £19.55 (ROI +8.6%). Runners priced 25/1 or bigger have an extremely poor record – just 20 wins from 1887 qualifiers (SR 1.1%) showing huge losses of £1164.00 to (ROI -61.7%). Horses priced 50/1 or bigger have produced just 3 winners from 890 runners for losses of over 81%.

Last time out – horses that won LTO are not good propositions in selling races. They win roughly 1 time in 5 but backing all runners would have yielded losses of around 19%. One area worth noting is that horses that ran LTO in 3yo or all age maidens have a dreadful strike rate – they have provided just 14 winners from 317 qualifiers (SR 4.4%).

Age – as with claiming races, older horses have a better strike rate than younger ones in all age claimers. However, the bias is less pronounced. Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined strike rate of 9%, whereas horses aged 6 or older have a combined strike rate of 12.2%.

Sex of horse – in sellers once again colts, geldings and horses have an edge over fillies and mares. However, it is not quite as clear cut as it was in claimers with the male to female success ratio in sellers standing at 1.4.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Horses upped in class have won just 4.5% of the time; horses racing in the same class as LTO have won 10.3% of the time; horses dropping in class have won 11.4% of the time;

2. Trainers Peter Evans, Jim Boyle, Gary Moore and George Baker are trainers who have good records in selling races on the all weather;

3. Horses carrying high weights in sellers have a better strike rate than those carrying low weights. Horses carrying 9st or more have a strike rate of 12.6%; horses carrying under 9st have a strike rate of 8.8%;

4. For “in running” punters it should be noted that the early leader of a 5f seller goes on to win over 25% of the time.

Handicap races (class 6 or lower)

Market – the top three in the betting have provided just over 54% of the winners. Favourites win around 1 race in 4 (26% to be precise) for losses of under 7%. The most successful favourites in handicaps have been in 2yo nurseries – a strike rate of 30.4% and profits of 6%. 3yo only handicaps see favourites perform solidly thanks to a strike rate of 30.9% with losses amounting to less than 2%. Lingfield has been most successful track for low grade handicap favourites producing a break even situation to SP.

Last time out – LTO winners score 16.6% of the time, with losses standing at 19%. However, if the LTO winners return to the track within 7 days their strike rate increases to 24%. These quick returns score 37% of the time and reach a break even situation if they start favourite. However, beware of LTO winners that start 10/1 or bigger in the betting – they have won just 4.4% of the time with steep losses of 38%.

Horses that ran in handicaps LTO are better betting propositions that horses that ran in non handicaps LTO – strike rates of 9% against 6.5% confirm this. The returns for each category though do not totally mirror the strike rates with losses of 21% for runners that ran in handicaps LTO, compared with losses of 25% for runners who ran LTO in non handicaps.

Sex of horse – the male to female success ratio is 1.3 in low grade handicaps open to both sexes. Percentage losses for male runners stand at only 17% compared with 28% for females. It is also should be noted that female runners have really struggled at Lingfield – their strike rate at the Surrey track is just 5.6% and losses are over 40%. Male runners have a definite advantage over female runners in these handicaps.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Female runners returning to the track after a break of 57 or more days have a poor record – just 92 wins from 1967 runners (SR 4.7%) for a loss of £788.17 (ROI -40.1%);

2. Colts when starting favourites have been fairly rare (around 40 per year). However, of the 225 qualifiers over the past 6 seasons, 86 have won (SR 38.2%) for a profit of £50.05 (ROI +22.2%);

3. Runners priced 25/1 or bigger have won 2.1% of the time for losses to SP of 25%. However, since Betfair Starting Price was introduced in 2008 you could have made a profit by backing them all at BSP. Despite having only 70 winners from 3717 runners, you would have made a profit of £730.88 (ROI +19.7%).

I hope this article has shown you that the all weather offers betting opportunities in all race types – you just need to do some digging!

—————————————————–

Dave Renham is a leading researcher into uk horse racing.

His site at www.PunterProfits.com contains a lot more of his research work. Some is free and some is member only. It’s a good site for racing realists who believe that knowing your stats is a likely root to success.

The private boards there contain many interesting and highly past profitable threads maintained by members of punterprofits who obvioulsy have learnt a trick or two from all Dave’s horse racing research teachings.

Favourites

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

This information was provided by www.RacingTrends.co.uk

This fairly comprehensive Hennessy analysis was provided by Guy Ward.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

——————————————————————

The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
Sky VC Tote

This comes from Guy aka The Mathematician

To Visit Guys site click here ==> Horse Betting Advice

————————————————————————
I nailed my colours to Johnny Mudball’s mast in Fridays full member message.
Quite surprised Pricewise have tipped him too today.
I’m not sure there is any value in the price now
but full members would have backed him at 11/1 and 12/1 on Friday.

Arguably with pricewise coming in today and smashing the price down a touch
I should have picked a different race for you today here on the free blog.

I did get a few emails seeking thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup however
so thought it would be the most popular race to cover here today for you.

Find Current Best Odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-18/ayr/15-20/betting/

Personally looking at the stats for these races
I think IRISH HEARTBEAT has a better profile than
anything in either race and I am slightly more hopeful
that he will win the Silver Cup at 2.15pm. I plan a bit
on him around 9/1 or 10/1 but low stakes in this race.

This is my friday message on the Ayr Gold Cup

AYR 3.20

William Hill (Ayr) Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

11/2 Poet’s Place, 7/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 8/1 Victoire De Lyphar 10/1 Genki, 12/1 Jonny Mudball, Redford, 14/1 Evens And Odds 16/1 Tajneed, 16/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, 16/1 Hitchens 20/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 20/1 Jimmy Styles, 20/1 Knot In Wood 20/1 Signor Peltro, 20/1 Noverre To Go, 25/1 Damien 25/1 Parisian Pyramid, 25/1 Striking Spirit, 25/1 Partner 25/1 Prime Exhibit, Barney McGrew, 33/1 Castles In The Air 33/1 Quest For Success, 33/1 Flipando, 33/1 Damika
33/1 Arganil, 33/1 Johannes

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1992
* I have used the 18 renewals of this race
* I have used 156 similar Class 2 handicaps
* These 156 races came between August and October

THE DRAW

Most are saying High. It is the safest choice. Nobody has any clue.
They were saying “High” last year yet the low numbers had it in the 3 Gold Silver and Bronze Cup races.
Even if there is a bias some belive the pace of the race matters more.
I dont have a strong view. My research is based on Handicaps only at
Ayr at this trip and I looked at every Handicap here since 2003 with 15 or more runners.
What that tells me is Stall 1 has a poor record. It also tells me horses drawn 23 or higher are 1-85 and I
would be very wary about the very high draws. Overall though I intend to ignore the draw at this stage and see what looks best.

NEGATIVES

* VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR is a Negative for me
* He is 3 and has just 3 runs this year and a 50 day break
* There were 2 winners aged 3 in this race
* They both had twice as many runs this year as he does
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3 runs that season were 1-82
* Those with 5 + runs had a 0-69 record and he has 9 runs
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3 runs that season were 3-153
* Those absent a month with 5 + career runs were 0-50
* They say he is a Group horse. He will need to be
* Drawn 24 may not be the help some think it is
* VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR doesnt come out well enough
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Horses aged 8 or more struggle in these races
* They won 7 races in a 7-275 record
* None were absent more than a month
* KNOT IN WOOD fails that
* Those aged 8 or more with under 8 runs that year are 1-104
* KNOT IN WOOD fails that as well
* FLIPANDO is too old aged 9 to be dropping from 7f
* BARNEY MCGREW is all wrong aged 7 from a Group 1 race
* TAJNEED is 7 and has not run in 2 weeks
* Horses with that profile were 6-255
* Those with under 8 runs that season were 0-120
* TAJNEED only just fails that with 7 runs but he fails it
* Those without Group Class form were 0-86
* TAJNEED also lacks Group class form as well
* Horses aged 7 winning 2+ weeks ago were 0-18
* TAJNEED has an unsatisfactory profile
* He is a Ripon specialist and has a career high mark
* Since 1986 horses aged 7 or more are 1-100 in this race
* DAMIKA is 7 and has to come from a 7f race
* There were 2 winners in 156 races doing that
* Those beaten more than 4 + lengths last time were 0-45
* He has a career high mark and this may be too much for him
* JOHANNES is underraced for a 7 year old
* Drawn one I will be shocked if he wins this
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Exposed horses absent over a month have a weak 5-297 record
* In this race these horses have a 0-60 record
* Those without Group class form were just 1-125
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails this and looks weak
* EVENS AND ODDS is exposed and absent a month
* Horses in this race with that profile were 0-60
* In 156 similar races they were 5-297 but none like him
* Those that placed 1-2-3 last time out were 0-69
* JIMMY STYLES is exposed absent over a month
* It worries me he has just 4 runs this season
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH is exposed and absent over a month
* No 4 year olds were exposed and absent as long as that
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH looks unsafe to me
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses from Group races had a 2-60 record
* None were aged 6 or more like GENKI
* Exposed horses trying this were 1-38
* None were as lightly raced this season as he is
* He is trying to do what Advanced did in 2007
* Thats to come from the Haydock Group 1 sprint
* Advanced was an unexposed 4 year old though
* I cant match GENKI to any of the 156 winners
* He has a tough weight of 9st 8lbs to overcome
* Horses in this race with 9st 7lbs or more struggled
* Those with 13 + runs and that weight were 0-58
* GENKI doesnt appeal much to me
* CASTLES IN THE AIR is exposed and from a 7f Listed race
* He looks unsafe and I cant find a winner like him
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* He has no Group form and comes from a 6f handicap
* Horses doing that within 2 weeks had a 1-85 record
* That winner ran much better than he did last time
* He also had much less weight and more runs this year
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS doesnt come out like any winners
* STRIKING SPIRIT has exactly the same profile
* I see him as weak as well
* HAWKEYETHENOO has been absent 56 days
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses absent 7 weeks or more like him were 11-265
* Those that were exposed were 1-110
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that as he is exposed
* The only winner managing it was older
* He had more backclass as well
* In 156 races last time winners with 13 + runs won 58 races
* None were absent 7 weeks or more like him (0-32)
* Those absent over a Month were only 1-104
* That winner was an unexposed 4 year old
* HAWKEYETHENOO doesnt look right to me
* PARISIAN PYRAMID is an exposed 4yo
* He has no form higher than Class 2 and hasnt run in 2 weeks
* In 156 races horses with that profile were 2-74
* Those like him beaten last time were 0-64
* I cant match him to any of the 156 winners
* PARTNER is difficult to read coming from Ireland
* He is an unexposed 4yo absent over a month
* There were 3 winners like that in 156 races
* Those beaten 4 + lengths with that profile were 0-34
*  PARTNER hasnt really shown enough to consider
* HITCHENS is an exposed 5 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time out
* Horses with that profile had a 0-26 record
* Exposed 5 year olds that were 1-2-3 last time were 6-157
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 1-77
* Those with under 7 runs that season were 0-41
* HITCHENS only has 5 runs and is poor
* DAMIEN is an unexposed 4yo from a 7f handicap
* 2 of the 156 winners had that profile
* Neither of them won this race
* Neither had form in Group class before like him
* I didnt see enough I liked about him

POSSIBLES

* SIGNOR PELTRO is a 7yo
* Since 1986 horses aged 7 or more are 1-100 in this race
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses aged 7 or more from 6f handicaps in a month won races
* Those with No form in Group Class races were 6-141
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 1-62
* SIGNOR PELTRO just lacks enough runs this year
* He has a career high mark of 100 as well
* I dont think he will win but I feel he is a Possible
* ARGANIL looks shortlistable at a huge price
* He is hard to fancy admittedy
* He was only beaten 4.5 lengths in this race last year
* This year he has a better preparation and a lower mark
* ARANGIL is very similar to the 33/1 winner in 2004
* He came from well beaten in the Portland
* He also had Group form and was the same age
* ARANGIL has to be shortlisted at a big price
* His biggest problem may be his draw in stall 2
* PRIME EXHIBIT has a complicated profile
* I found 2 winners of similar races but none of this race
* 5 year olds with 13-20 runs and an absence of 7 + weeks
* I cant make him a negative so I’d shortlisting him
* REDFORD comes from an 8f race
* In 156 of these races there were 3 winners doing that
* 2 of them came in this race as well
* However they were all unexposed
* Exposed horses like REDFORD from 8f races were 0-40
* The horses from 8f races in this race were aged 3 and 4
* REDFORD is 5 and I cant match him to a winner
* With 1 run less I could so I would respect him
* POET´S PLACE is very hard to assess
* Being 5 with only 7 career starts makes him tricky to read
* Horses with that profile won 3 races
* Those with No Group class form had a 1-1 record
* That winner had less weight and a long absence
* He didnt win last time either
* 2 Portland winners have won this race
* They were both younger though confusing things more
* Overall I would play on the safe side and shortlist him
* NOVERRE TO GO comes from the Stewards Cup
* There were 2 winners of this race doing that
* Both were unexposed 4 year olds like him
* They had 10 and 11 runs and he has 16 runs
* Thats close enough for me
* Unexposed 4 year olds won this race 6 times
* 2 of the last 3 winners were unexposed 4 year olds
* With fast ground NOVERRE TO GO could go close

STRONG PROFILE

JONNY MUDBALL

* JONNY MUDBALL has a very smart profile
* JONNY MUDBALL is 4 and absent 49 days
* 4 year olds absent over a Month won 9 races
* Those with 7-12 runs like him won 5 races
* Those with Class 2 form made that a 5-14 record
* Extract those that were not beaten 4 + lengths last time
* Those that came from a 6f handicap had a 4-5 record
* Those that started under 33/1 had a 4-4 record
* Horses with his profile had a 4-4 record
* The 1996 and 2001 winners of this race had this profile
* They both came from the Stewards cup like him
* He is very similar to 1996 winner Coastal Bluff

Find Current Best Odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-18/ayr/15-20/betting/