He calls it the Strongest Statisic Today

In short it points to something interesting found

through his research.

Some days it may point to a horse to think about backing.

Other days it may be a strong stat that could lead you to opposing a short priced favourite.

=====================

S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c  T o d a y

Uttoxeter 2.10

VICTORIA ROSE 10/1

Another Positive Statistic today. I dont expect her
to win rated lower than most of her rivals but she is
a double figure price and comes out curiously well so
I wouldnt put anyone off having a small interest bet.

* All Mares Novice Chases run in January
* Horses from Handicap Hurdles
* Between 7 and 20 career starts
* Running over 19f or more last time
* Between 1 and 4 runs that season
* There were 8 horses with that profile
* They finished W 2 W W W W W W
* VICTORIA ROSE  shares that profile

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS price has come in a  bit since Mathematician Members got this earlier today. Now best priced 9/1 at VC

.

He finally had a losing weekend after five winning weekend’s in a row for us here.

Read below his suggested betting advice for today.

———————————————————-

A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, Bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 Bet365 Betfred Sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

.

Can he make it six in a row?

==========================

Mathematician 1153

Lingfield  3.55 – PIPERS PIPING  10/1 Each Way

L i n g f i e l d

Lingfield has a ferocious card. I have half chances in a
lot of races but not sure there is anything good enough
to advise. I nearly did something in the 3.55pm but I’d
run out of time. I like Pipers Piping and City Legend a
bit and although I have not made a strong enough case
for a very strong bet I can go with a mention. Rather
than have City Legend as a saver I will take a simpler
route and suggest PIPERS PIPING each way at 9/1 +

It’s very hard today and I have struggled to find any
really decent bet and I think it’s a dangerous day so
go careful and consider its a particularly tough day.
I see this more as a Fun Bet and no guarantees we are
going to get anything back from it.

L i n g f i e l d   3.55

9/4 Sketchy Evidence, 7/2 Eager To Bow, 11/2 City Legend
13/2 The Strig, 8/1 Pipers Piping, 10/1 Cativo Cavallino
12/1 Hawk Moth, 16/1 Silvee, 20/1 Sienna Blue
25/1 High On The Hog.

No time to look at this handicap in any great detail
but I checked out Sketchy Evidence and would have
opposed him. No winners came from maidens with
2 runs as he does. Only one winner came from a 6f
maiden and that horse had a long absence and I just
see him as shaky. EAGER TO BOW does have the
much safer profile but he didnt excite me and that
aside his draw would put me off him. There are two
I think stand out with recent races in this race.

* CITY LEGEND – Every chance of taking this
* PIPERS PIPING – Looks interesting with better jockey

Selection

PIPERS PIPING  10/1 Each Way at S James

For live market prices see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-07/lingfield-park/15-55/betting/

If you are led personally to City Legend I would not put you off it.

To Visit Guys Site Click Here ==> Betting Advice

Guy is aiming to hit an impressive five winning weekends in a row !

———————————————————-

L i n g f i e l d   2.15

EVEN BOLDER 7/1 + Each Way

I start with a difficult nursery at 12.30 but I feel we
have enough negatives to sort this out. I have made
COMPTON TARGET my selection and had a saver
on Moment In The Sun but I could easily have gone
the other way around. I dont think I will be far away
here but I didn’t really see this bet as selection class.
The short price means SAFARI SUNSEEKER is not
going to be the selection either but a hot profile and
I think he probably will win. I do have a dilemma in
EVEN BOLDER and it is preying on my mind a bit.

In the last two days the best bet in the message won
at 7/1 and 7/2 but only when mentions. Yesterday I
had the first 5 winners at Lingfield and now I come
back to having a selection it would just be so typical
if Lingfield were to bear it’s teeth to throw up some
traffic problems. EVEN BOLDER is often unlucky
and he runs at a track where you need luck so I will
not be surprised I report tomorrow how unlucky he
has been. Emotion and Scare Mongering aside what
a great price he is. Freely available at 8/1 on Betfair
this is the Lowest Class of race he has raced in for
a very long time. He has been beautifully Placed in
this race. He has slipped in nicely into a 0-65 race
for the first time in years and meets opponents he
should be able to beat. We have a Top jockey and
I think he should be closer to 7/2 than 7/1 and he
could be bigger later on. He has to be worth a bet.

L i n g f i e l d   2.15

3/1 Wreningham, 100/30 Griffin Point, 9/2 Royal Bajan
6/1 Dorothy4s Dancing, 7/1 Even Bolder, 12/1 Sherjawy
12/1 Vhujon, 12/1 Welsh Inlet, 25/1 Dells Breezer.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There are 104 similar races at this time of year
* DELLS BREEZER – Opposable with 1 run this year from 5f
* DOROTHY4S DANCING  is hard to read
* She is a 3yo filly and has just 1 run in the last 59 days
* That would worry me for a filly so lightly raced
* I looked at fillies like her with 9-12 runs and Class 4 form
* I found 1 similar winner a long time ago
* That horse had a stone less weight and more recent run
* DOROTHY4S DANCING – Not a negative but not for me
* I am uncomfortable with her profile
* VHUJON – Doesnt really offer me enough
* Not hard to see him getting outpaced here
* Not sure he is capable of taking this over 5f
* GRIFFIN POINT is 4yo filly from a 5f race
* I found 3 winners with that profile but all had more backclass
* None like GRIFFIN POINT has between 13 and 20 runs either
* She has 17 runs and isnt quite right
* I like the recent run just not the limited backclass
* SHERJAWY is a exposed 7 year old
* He lacks a recent run within 2 weeks
* There were 4 winners but 3 had Listed or Group class backclass
* Those like SHERJAWY who didnt were just 1-45
* That winner ran better than he did last time and with less weight
* SHERJAWY -  Not an impressive profile
* He is well handicapped though and not a negative

S h o r t l i s t

* ROYAL BAJAN is 3 from a 5f handicap
* He lacks a recent run and has Class 4 form before
* I found 2 winners like him but with 2 differences
* Both winners ran closer last time than he did
* Both had 8st 11lbs or less and he has 9st 6lbs
* ROYAL BAJAN is not a negative but not quite right
* I’d like less weight and a more recent run
* ROYAL BAJAN has had just 1 race in the last 94 days
* Thats not a lot for a 5f sprinter
* WELSH INLET is an exposed 3yo filly
* She comes from a 5f handicap and has Class 4 form
* I found 2 recent winners bit both ran within 2 weeks
* None with her profile tried to win absent over 2 weeks
* WELSH INLET has a Neutral profile
* WRENINGHAM is an exposed 6yo winning last time
* I found a couple of winners with a similar profile
* One had far more backclass but he ism just about ok
* This is a career high mark though and he is beatable

Selection

* EVEN BOLDER is an 8yo from a 5f race
* All winners his age and over did the same thing
* They all finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time
* EVEN BOLDER beaten 3.5 lengths is not technically right
* Ignore that as he was badly drawn and badly hampered last time
* He could and should easily have been much closer
* This is also a drop in class for him
* When has this horse ever had only a 0-64 field to beat
* EVEN BOLDER has a massive chance for me
* He has spent almost his entire career in better class
* I would see him as a serious runner for all his frustrations

Nb 7/1 was available earlier when full members got this.

Best price now 13/2 at VC

Can he make it three profitable Saturday’s in a row?

—————————

Weather affected day and It’s Southwell that has
the most coverage as the only card that was safe.

I’m surprised an 11f handicap produces my best bet but
the 2.55pm may be best left to FOLLOW THE FLAG
a horse I have being saying for a while was well treated
and looking at his last run I think he needs this distance.
Decided against putting him up as a bet because I know
my angles in 11f handicaps are awkward and messy and
there is every chance a non runner killed my each way
options. I do see FOLLOW THE FLAG as my best bet.

S o u t h w e l l   2.55

7/2 Royal Swain, 7/2 Stanley Rigby, 9/2 Sail Home
6/1 Ostentation, 6/1 Rajamand, 10/1 Follow The Flag
10/1 Hits Only Jude, 12/1 Magic Echo.

This is an 11f Handicap for 0-75 rated horses. This is a
nightmare distance to sort out statistically as I have said
countless times before. I have few 11f races to work with
but I ran all these horses through some statistical tests to get a shortlist.
The horses with long absences struggled a bit and fell short.
So did the horses that were well beaten over 12f last time.
There are stamina doubts to consider with horses like HITS ONLY JUDE.
In the end I felt the most promising profiles were both FOLLOW THE FLAG
and SAIL HOME and whilst neither looked brilliant I can at least find a winner
like both which is a reasonable start. I have flagged up FOLLOW THE FLAG 4
times recently as well handicapped and he may well be able to win over this distance.
He appeals most with Sail Home the horse I fear the most. I could have SAIL HOME
as the saver in the race but I’d rather bet FOLLOW THE FLAG E/W as
I think he looked like he was crying out for a slower and
longer surface last time at Lingfield. He only just coped
with a faster track at a Mile but stayed on very well late
in the race and I think he could well take this race today.

Selection

FOLLOW THE FLAG 11/2 Ladbrokes – Sporting Bet  Each Way

.

Just part of a much larger message from him today.

Fingers crossed for another decent priced winner from him again today.

To visit his site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

Lingfield 3.55

Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I’m not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn’t yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don’t know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don’t
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.

10/1 at Betfred – Ladbrokes – Coral – Stan James

.

In this article I am going to look at long distance handicap chases to see if we can improve our chances of a) picking the winner, but more importantly b) gaining enough value on the winners to make a profit. I have decided that any race 3m2f or longer counts as a long distance chase.

However, what I am not going to do is back track through data and manipulate the stats to some degree. Indeed far too many people do this – they back-fit the results to create a set of rules or a system, that ends up producing a profit. Unfortunately 99 times out of 100 these ‘positive’ findings will not be reflected in future results. My plan to look at a variety of areas in an attempt to find potential starting points – basically these are raw ideas that have the potential to produce winning systems or winning methods. So here goes. The data has been taken from 2007 to October 4^th 2011. All profit/loss figures are calculated to £1 level stakes. SR% stands for strike rate; ROI% stands for return on investment.

Age

When thinking about long distance chasers I think about older horses rather than younger ones. However as the table shows, it is horses aged 6 to 8 that tend to do best in these events:

Combining horses aged 6 to 8 we get 257 wins from 2180 runners (SR 11.8%) for a loss of £232.19 (ROI -10.7%). OK it still makes a loss, but less than 11p in the £, so these horses seem a good group to concentrate on. If we compare their record with horses aged 9 and older we can see it compares favourably – the older group combine for 229 wins from 2796 runners (SR 8.2%) for a loss of £754.48 (ROI -27.0%). So we have losses of 27p in the £, and a lower strike rate to boot.

Position LTO

Recent form is something most punters latch on to, and hence there often is limited value around following a good run last time out. However, let us see the figures for LTO performance in terms of finishing position for our long distance chasers:

LTO winners have actually got a decent record with losses of only 4.5p in the £. Interestingly, horses that finished 6^th or worse LTO have lost only 6.6p in the £ – I would imagine these runners tend to start at better prices than they should due to punters being indifference to their chances. Horses that failed to finish LTO look very poor value and are horses to avoid.

LTO Market Position

Market factors are often used when looking for ideas, angles or systems, but usually it is the actual starting price that is used. The problem with using this as a ‘filter’ is that we don’t know the SP until after the event. We may have a pretty good idea close to the ‘off’ but not many people are able to wait until the very last minute to place their bet. I often look at market factors from previous races. Here, I am looking at their market position LTO. The results are as follows:

The only semi-positive here is the performance of LTO favourites – a decent enough strike rate coupled with losses of around 6p in the £.

Race type LTO

Most long distance handicap chasers race primarily over fences, but there are a few horses that switch back and forth. I thought it was worth looking at whether race type LTO makes any difference:

It looks as if horses that ran over hurdles last time are worth closer scrutiny. They have a better strike rate than those running over fences LTO, and backing all of them actually has made a profit. Now, it is unlikely this profit would be repeated over a subsequent 5-year period, but clearly these runners perform above expectations and probably start at prices that are higher than they should be.

Jockeys

The perception of many is that although claiming/conditional jockeys are able to take weight off the back of a horse, their inexperience means that the claim becomes effectively worthless. The stats for jockeys in these long distance chases makes interesting reading …………

Conditional jockeys claiming 5lb or more have a strike rate virtually identical to professional jockeys, but their losses are significantly less. This is almost certainly down to punters or bookmakers pushing out the prices of horses ridden by conditional jockeys claiming 5lb or more.

Conclusions

I have looked at 5 different angles and the stats have pinpointed some areas that are better than others. So how best can we utilize the stats? Well, the lazy system punter would almost certainly combine the ‘best’ bits of the five areas – so the system would look something like this:

1. won LTO

2. favourite LTO

3. Aged 6 to 8

4. Ridden by conditional jockey claiming 5lb or more

5. Raced in hurdle race LTO

For the record since 2007 this ‘system’ would have produced a strike rate of 66.7% and a return on investment of over 90%. However, before you all start planning your retirement due to this gilt-edged winning system, I should point out that there would have only been 3 selections in the 5 years of study!!! Essentially, this is an example of why back-fitting is not good practice. Too often people use too many rules when creating their systems – this either cuts down the number of bets to ridiculously small amounts, as in this case, or it simply gives a false set of figures even with a decent final sample size.

At the beginning of the article I mentioned the fact I would be looking to find potential starting points – this is rather than producing rigid ‘systems’ that have too many rules. It is my belief that a sensible starting point is when you combine two factors only. So that is what I am going to do. I am going to use the same 5 rules in the lazy system example, but will combine them in twos, not in one block of five. Here are the results:

As we can see, only one combination has produced poor returns – ‘the won LTO and ran in hurdle LTO’ one. Of the remaining 9 starting points, 4 showed a profit, the other 5 showed small losses. Now I am not advocating backing all horses in the future that match these starting points, but clearly any runner that does ‘match’ should be given further consideration. Others factors could then be taken into account such as going, trainer, class, fitness, etc.

Author Bio

Dave Renham works at the Racing and Football Outlook newspaper as their Race Trends expert; has worked on The Racing Post as a writer of the spotlight column and has published several books about horse racing research.

On the Web Dave is heavily involved with the respected horse racing websites www.PunterProfits.com and www.RacingTrends.co.uk

For more free advice from him see ==> free horse racing tips

=============================================

N e w m a r k e t 5.00

(8) GOLDEN DESERT 18/1

Each Way Bet

* Do not mix the name up with another horse
* Another horse in the same race has a similar name.
* The bet is Number 8 on the card Golden Desert

I’ve gone with GOLDEN DESERT and He is one of
those bets that you know is unsafe but his price does
compensate for that. He is knocking in a bit aged 7
and hasn’t won for 2 years and it’s not hard to see a
couple of younger horses beating him. That said it’s
a race with a lot of good negatives. There are some
very good reasons why he might win this race. I see
promise in his last run where I flagged him up before
the race at 20/1. He ran well last time and although
I wouldnt have tipped him at 8/1 the 18/1 is far too
big as is the 20/1 on Betfair so going with him today.

N e w m a r k e t 5.00

Betfred The Bonus King Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

4/1 Asraab, 13/2 White Frost, 8/1 Bonnie Brae
8/1 Golden Delicious, 10/1 Lutine Bell
12/1 Axiom, 12/1 Mr David, 14/1 Elna Bright
14/1 Gallagher, 16/1 Citrus Star, 16/1 Mia4s Boy
16/1 Woodcote Place, 20/1 Golden Desert
25/1 Space Station, 25/1 Striking Spirit.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7 furlongs
* Newmarket has had 22 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 68 similar races at other tracks
* I think the Draw Shows you want a Middle Draw
* I would be worried about horses drawn very low
* I would also be worried about horses drawn very high
* I predict the winner will be drawn between 3 and 14
* STRIKING SPIRIT is not well drawn in Stall 16
* I didnt like him profile at all exposed from 6f
* Not without a recent race
* STRIKING SPIRIT is statistically weak
* ASRAAB could have been better drawn in stall 15
* ASRAAB only has 1 run this season
* Horses doing that in 68 races had a 1-19 record
* That winner was a completely different type
* ASRAAB has a long absence as well and only 3 runs
* Its an Unsafe profile and not a great draw
* I’d be a Fool to discount him from Godolphins
* As an option in this race he doesn’t really appeal
* WHITE FROST has a bad draw in Stall 1
* I dont like his profile from a 3yo handicap either
* There were 4 winners doing this
* Those with Under 7 runs that season were 0-48
* WHITE FROST has just 4 runs and I see him as weak
* WOODCOTE PLACE has a bad draw in Stall 14
* I looked at Exposed horss in 68 similar races
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that year were 0-43
* WOODCOTE PLACE has only 4 runs and is 8 years old
* No exposed horse aged 6 won without at least 6 runs
* WOODCOTE PLACE has to be underraced this year
* MIA4S BOY also looks underraced this year
* He is 7 and has had just 4 runs this season
* ELNA BRIGHT won a 5f handicap last time
* More than happy to oppose him doing that
* Especially as an exposed 6 year old and he looks wrong
* AXIOM is 7 and only 2 winners were as old
* I looked at all exposed horss aged 6 or more
* Those without Pattern Class form won just 5 races
* Most of these had more runs that season than him
* None of these carried more than 9st weight as well
* AXIOM has a difficult task from Topweight
* GALLAGHER is very well treated these days
* There is a doubt about what he can achieve these days
* Recently changed stables he ran ok last time
* He is underraced this year though
* Exposed horses from 6f or shorter struggled
* Those that won were rare and all had far more runs
* GALLAGHER falls short for me
* Fillies dont have a great record in these races
* None were absent as long as BONNIE BRAE
* BONNIE BRAE looks wrong as a filly absent 63 days
* Winning last time with that absence worries me
* BONNIE BRAE doesnt offer me enough
* GOLDEN DELICIOUS is a 3yo filly
* These 3yo fillies have a poor record and he isnt for me
* SPACE STATION is an exposed 5yo
* Statistically he is generally fine with no weak areas
* The only question remains has he got the class
* There are some factors that worry me
* SPACE STATION has a career high mark
* He has only ever won in a Class 4 race before
* He needs to produce a career best by some way
* All his wins come on sharp tracks as well
* MR DAVID is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were just 1-44
* That winner had much less weight than he does
* None had raced in Group class before like him
* I Dont fancy him but there are better negatives
* Wouldnt be a complete shock but not for me

S h o r t l i s t

* CITRUS STAR is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those with 13-20 runs like him were only 1-59
* All 3 of these unexposed winners were different
* Troubles me he only has 5 runs that season
* I’d like more and I cant match him exactly to a winner
* CITRUS STAR is respected and shortlistable
* I did struggle to find enough I liked

* LUTINE BELL is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* He has Class 2 form and no higher
* I found 4 winners that had that profile in 68 races
* LUTINE BELL was 2nd last time in a tough race
* That was a career best performance
* He has to repeat that today but should go well
* A couple of things worry me
* I think he has plenty of weight for his profile
* There is a chance his last run was a falsely run race
* The 1-2-3 all came from behind that day
* They may have benefitted from the pace of the race
* I wasnt overkeen he has just 1 race in the last 59 days
* Shortlistable but not completely convinced

* GOLDEN DESERT is a worrying aged at 7
* That said we had 2 horses winning aged 7
* Both were very well raced that year like him
* Both ran well last time in 7f handicaps like him
* I flagged him up as very interesting last time out
* Go back a year and he was 2nd here in a similar race
* That run would win this and he is 9lbs lower today

SELECTION – GOLDEN DESERT 18/1 Eachway at BoyleSports & William Hill

See full market odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-24/newmarket/17-00/betting/

.

It will mean lots more non runners later on top
of several already pulled out. Plenty of opinions
in lots of races today. Done what I can despite a
lack of knowledge about what will run. Its one of
those messages to slowly navigate through. Dont
be afraid to overrule some selections if evidence
later shows that to be sensible. The weather does
not make it safe or sensible to go with a strong
stake today.

Perhaps unpredictable as a race but the 4.30pm at
Ripon interested me. I wasnt convinced about the
favourite and I felt the bet was BLUE DEER as
an improver from a stronger stable with entries
all over the place and bred to appreviate softer
ground. I felt he was worth a bet around 11/2.

R i p o n  4.30

5/2 Arrivaderci, 6/1 Blue Deer, 17/2 Song Of Parkes
9/1 Decadence, 9/1 Eeny Mac, 10/1 Lady Platinum Club
12/1 Cottam Stella, 12/1 Gambatte, 12/1 Grazeon Again
12/1 Spinatrix, 14/1 Roman Ruler, 16/1 Bahamian Jazz
25/1 Ivy And Gold.

This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f. This race has 18
renewals and being a “Maiden” handicap its best seen
in isolation from other races. I didnt like the look of
favourite ARRIVADERCI as a 3yo filly coming from
a 5f race when inexperienced and having so few races
this season and I would look elsewhere. For the same
reasons I would also oppose COTTAM STELLA too.
No past winners of this dropped from a Mile or more
so SONG OF PARKES from 8f and DECADENCE as
a horse from a 10f race look vulnerable. These would
be my main negatives in an open looking races. I feel
LADY PLATINUM CLUB and EENY MAC have to
be seriously considered. So to does BLUE DEER who
comes from a good stable and a horse entered all over
the place this week.  EENY MAC who looks likely to
appreciate the drop in class and track and I was very
tempted by him but an inexperienced winnerless pilot
puts me off him. BLUE DEER looks the one to me.

Selection – BLUE DEER 6/1 bet 365
If that goes or 365 have limited you to penny stakes as they tend to do..
11/2 available at Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Sky

Live prices at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-07-16/ripon/16-30/betting/

==============================

This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

This is typical style of Guy’s daily output for clients there.

As you can see he knows a lot and works very hard.

Quite a few of his clients have been with him not for a month or six months even but for over 5 years !

=====================

No Strong Bet Today

****************************************************
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2 Bets Today

Lingfield 4.55

SEEK THE FAIR LAND 8/1

Win Bet

Thirsk 6.30

DESERT STRIKE 8/1

Each Way Bet

* No Message Tomorrow *

This is the 11th message in a row without a break and
National Hunt cards tomorrow give me a chance for a
break and as I’m flagging now and tired it’s a good time.

Never really liked the cards on this day as there are so
many smaller field conditions races. The evening cards
are not as good as normal as fast ground has reduced a
few of the fields to uncompetetive races. I have decided
to go with two chosen bets on the day and both are big
prices in open handicaps. SEEK THE FAIR LAND has
a decent chance and looks overpriced to me but there’s
no margin for error in this race and we may need to be
lucky despite a good draw. DESERT STRIKE also has
a reasonable chance. Unusual bet for me as statistically
he is just average but I was given a good word for him
earlier in the week and having watched his last run in
the understanding he wasn’t fancied last time I liked a
performance that showed he had a lot in hand. Think
he is worth a bet as there are lots of horses I dislike in
this race and there are 4 places available. Worth a bet.

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Message Thoughts

Not that many places that I want to go today. I have a
hatred of Ascot and find it beats me more often than it
helps me so nothing there except the Victoria Cup stats
and I am only doing those as its the showcase handicap
of the day. I also hate the Haydock mixed card as usual.

There a lots of races I can’t get serious in. I dont want
to get dragged into smaller field races. The Maidens or
the trial races , conditions races or the pattern contests
are all unpleasant. I have looked at a few of these from
a safe distance but these rarely throw up stronger bets.

Far too many of those today and not that many suit me
today. It is normally a weak Saturday for us. Only doing
a short portfolio of races I feel I can offer something in.

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Friday’s Summary

One bet and a winner in GALA CASINO STAR which was
welcome after an unsteady few days. Hopefully that was a
sign of things to come. I thought the message was the best
for a while. Seemed to be lots of winners in there.
Overall  a strong message and with quite a lot going our way
it felt like it worked on a day I was forced into summarising more.

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P R O F I L E S   &  P R E V I E W S

Nottingham 1.50

9/4 Select Committee, 7/2 Secret Venue, 5/1 Absa Lutte
6/1 Atlantic Beach, 7/1 Black Baccara, 10/1 Bilash
14/1 Micky Mac, 14/1 Yurituni.

Unpleasant 5f Handicap to start with. Weak profiles for the
likes of BILASH and MICKY MAC. I found YURITUNI not
safe enough and unlike any winners. SELECT COMMITTEE
lacks a bit of backclass and because of that I just failed to get him
into safe statistical territory as all similar horses needed 3 runs that year.
I felt the same with SECRET VENUE who’s younger but has just
1 run this year. I am oppose these horses. I think one of 3 horses should be considered here

* BLACK BACCARA – Well raced filly with chances
* ABSA LUTTE – Older Mare but offers enough
* ATLANTIC BEACH – Solid enough profile

Lingfield 2.10

Seasonal debutants have won the last 6 Chartwell Stakes
but’s time for a change now. DEVER DREAM is having
her first run but the only winners as experienced as her
had by then achieved Group 1 Class before and she lacks
that. PYRRHA and TROPICAL PARADISE also racing
first time out are a little bit exposed to be doing that so
with all 3 of these badly drawn I expect the winner will
have run this year. No 3 year old that had raced at least
5 times before won with under 2 runs that season which
is a problem for EUCHARIST and no 3yo has won this
coming from 6f like PERFECT TRIBUTE. Overall the
safest choice looks to be FLAMBEAU the favourite.

Lingfield 2.40

100/30 Field Of Miracles, 4/1 Date With Destiny
5/1 Palm Pilot, 6/1 Zain Al Boldan, 7/1 Always The Lady
10/1 Galivant, 12/1 Al Mayasah, 12/1 Saint Helena
20/1 Barathea Dancer.

The Oaks trial looks destined for a horse that’s ran this
year. No past winners came from 3yo handicaps which
is why I reject ZAIN AL BOLDAN – SAINT HELENA
and PALM PILOT. The horses winning 10f maidens
all had more experience than ALWAYS THE LADY
and more runs that year. DATE WITH DESTINY is
respected but I think FIELD OFF MIRACLES might
improve past her and she would be my choice.

Nottingham 2.55

9/4 Shernando, 5/2 Hallstatt, 9/2 Bollin Greta
6/1 Emrani, 6/1 Wild Desert, 12/1 Daylami Dreams

This is a 14f Handicap. I looked at 112 similar races at this time of year.
Horses aged 4 coming from 3yo handicaps first time out are 2-22.
However fillies were 2-2 and Males had a 0-20 record and SHERNANDO
fails that as a male. The two winners also had much more experience and less
weight so I am avoiding SHERNANDO. Also out are BOLLIN GRETA
and DAYLAMI DREAMS both older seasonal debutants and not like any of the 112 winners.

These are my negatives.

EMRANI – Hard to read perhaps didnt do enough last time
WILD DESERT – Very hard to read but a possible
HALLSTATT – Limitations but easily the Fittest horse

Lingfield 3.10

The Derby Trial is another messy trials race.
HURRICANE HIGGINS would be my choice.

Ascot 3.25

Totesport Victoria Cup (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 7f

8/1 Horseradish, 10/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 14/1 Al Muheer
14/1 Brae Hill, 14/1 Shamandar, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Excellent Guest, 16/1 Lowther, 16/1 Nasri, Lutine Bell
20/1 Fathsta, Himalya, 20/1 Mon Cadeaux, 20/1 Zero Money
25/1 Gouray Girl, 25/1 Noble Citizen, 25/1 Sunraider
28/1 Layla´s Hero, 33/1 Advanced, 33/1 Bay Knight
33/1 Bravo Echo, 33/1 Dhaular Dhar, 33/1 Douze Points
33/1 Golden Desert, 33/1 Manassas, 33/1 Oasis Dancer,
33/1 Parisian Pyramid, Rulesn´regulations, Corporal Maddox.

* The Victoria Cup is a 7f Handicap for 0-110 horses
* Since 1990 there has been 18 renewals of this race
* Avoid horses with 3 or more runs that season
* Avoid horses from 5f races
* Oppose horses aged 7 or more (0-46)
* Oppose exposed horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Oppose exposed 6 year olds with 1 run this season
* Oppose exposed horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Avoid fillies who are 0-23 in this race
* Oppose exposed horses from 8f races if 1 run this year
* Oppose exposed horses from 6f or shorter
* Oppose exposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time
* Avoid any horses from a Conditions race (0-41)
* Avoid 4 year olds with 13 + runs unless with Group 1 form
* Seasonal debutants have a 3-95 record
* All 3 were male aged 4 or 5
* They all came from 7f races and had 7-20 runs
* Horses with 6 or more career wins are 0-71
* Horses with 9st 5lbs or more had a poor 1-73 record
* Horses from 6f races won 4 renewals
* All 3 that did it had 1 run this year
* None that did it ran within 2 weeks (0-29)
* Only 2 past winners ran in Group class before
* None were aged 6 or more
* Those doing that with under 21 career runs were 0-38
* Horses that come from 8f or more won 4 races
* Those that had 13 or more runs doing this were 1-73
* That winner ran within 2 weeks

SHORTLIST

* HORSERADISH – similar to 1999 winner – Draws a worry
* ZERO MONEY – Statistically fine if he is fit enough
* BRAE HILL – Acceptable profile

Nottingham 3.30

Hard race and I couldnt sort it.
BOUNTY BOX – Dont like the profile much
BEYOND DESIRE – Definate chance
KHOR SHEED – Acceptable
ANNE OF KIEV – Unmatchable but interesting
There is one bet that I see worth having if playing
ANNE OF KIEV as a Place Only Bet at evens

Haydock 3.40

6/1 Remember Now, 10/1 Knight In Purple
10/1 Tatispout, 12/1 Ballybriggan, 12/1 Higgy´s Ragazzo
12/1 Pires, 12/1 Rebel Dancer, 14/1 Jubail, 16/1 Eradicate
16/1 Hunterview, 16/1 Pokfulham, 20/1 Barizan
20/1 Chaninbar, 20/1 Drill Sergeant, 20/1 Safari Journey
25/1 Rio Gael, 33/1 Andhaar, 33/1 Olympian, 33/1 Orsippus
33/1 Tarkari, 40/1 Caravel, 40/1 Mason Hindmarsh
50/1 Maoi Chinn Tire.

* The Swinton Handicap Hurdle is over 2m
* Always play with a few trends and shortlist
* Horses aged 7 or more have struggled
* You ideally want at least 4 hurdle starts
* You want a horse with under 13 hurdle starts
* Your horse must have won in their last 6 races
* Avoid all horses from handicaps in Class 3 or less
* You want a horse thats ran within 80 days
* All past winners had ran in a Class 2 race before
* Horses are strong coming from Novice Hurdles
* They are best with under 4-8 runs when 1-2-3-4 last time
* Most winners had 11st or less weight
* The two I shortlisted from these are below
* JUBAIL  – REBEL DANCER

Haydock 4.10

15/8 Victoire De Lyphar, 11/4 Society Rock
3/1 Bated Breath, 4/1 Royal Rock, 20/1 Tamagin.

This is a Conditions race over 6f with a history
going back to 1997. Dandy Nicholls keeps trying
and failing to win this race and runs the seasonal
debutant VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR. Only 2 past
winners won first time out and none were 4yo’s
like him. BATED BREATH is very sexy and in
the Cammidge Trophy we could clearly see how
unlucky he was. Thats not to say he would have
won though. If you take the 4 year olds that ran
in Listed races with 1 run this season you find a
few winners. SOCIETY ROCK shares the profile.
Of the pair I prefer SOCIETY ROCK. He is from
a better trial race. He has more experience which
has been an advantage and he has more backclass
as well and overall he fits in much better to past
winners than BATED BREATH. I wouldnt rule
out ROYAL ROCK who is almost right and not
too dissimilar to the 2002 winner who was older
but overall the best profile is SOCIETY ROCK.

Lingfield 4.55

More Live Football At Totesport.com Handicap
(Turf) (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 7f

9/2 Bowmaker, 11/2 Den´s Gift, 13/2 Space Station
8/1 Buxton, 8/1 Wilfred Pickles, 10/1 Free For All
10/1 Seek The Fair Land, 12/1 Red Yarn, 14/1 Aldermoor
16/1 Leadenhall Lass, 16/1 Nezami, 16/1 Slugger O´toole
20/1 Aye Aye Digby.

* This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-84
* There are 156 similar races at this time of year
* You want a high draw in these races
* Since 2008 there were 23 Handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2-3 had a poor 1-73 record
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 11-5-16-12-18-6-14-10-11-15-17-8-10
* AYE AYE DIGBY is out drawn 1
* No exposed horse won absent more than 7 months
* ALDERMOOR doesnt appeal in stall 2
* He is an exposed debutant and may need the run
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE has a poor draw in stall 3
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE is exposed and first time out
* RED YARN is not drawn well in stall 4
* She is a 4yo filly racing first time out
* 4yo fillies doing that with 7 + runs had a 0-38 record
* FREE FOR ALL is 4 and last ran in a Maiden last year
* Horses doing that with 2 or more runs were 0-15
* I don’t like her inexperience or his stable
* LEADENHALL LASS is a mare with 1 run this year
* Mares with 1 run this season have a 2-61 record
* None of these won or placed last time out
* She find it hard to follow up with just 1 run
* She won a small field 0-74 last time and this is better
* BOWMAKER has a good draw but a questionable profile
* I looked at 4yo Males with under 13 career starts
* BOWMAKER is 4 and has only raced 7 times
* Those 4 year olds with 1-2-3 runs that year were 2-73
* Not a good record and both winners had Class 2 form
* Those like BOWMAKER who didnt were 0-48
* NEZAMI is respected despite being underraced
* I cant find a similar winner his age
* Not exposed with 1 run this year and an absence
* I Suspect he will need 1 more run this season
* WILFRED PICKLES is 5 and drops down in distance
* No problem doing that but most winners had more backclass
* He has no form beyond this class and it hurts his chance
* So far he has lost in all 15 races on turf
* All came from lower handicap marks as well
* His 42 day absence hurts him as well
* I also wonder if the ground may be too quick
* Given all that and stall 5 of 13 he isnt for me
* BUXTON is fine statistically
* I just question whether he is up to this class
* Most of his runs/wins are against slightly weaker horses
* He is up in class today as well
* One or two may have more talent
* He seems to need to go round a bend as well

SHORTLIST

* DEN´S GIFT has a decent profile
* He is 7 with 3 runs this year running well last time
* I found 3 winners with his profile
* All 3 did have a bit less weight
* He is also 0-19 on Grass and has one of the weaker riders
* I see him as shortlistable though

* SPACE STATION is a 5yo male down from 8f
* SPACE STATION was well beaten last time 5 days ago
* He caught the eye last time but he often does
* I ran his profile carefully
* I found 1 similar winner with slight differences
* That winner had just over a weeks break not under
* That winner had less weight as well
* He didnt come from the sand either
* He isnt that well handicapped either
* He will also have to make sure he runs prominently
* He could throw away a good draw if he doesnt

* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a strong profile
* Male 5 year old exposed with 2 runs this season
* Coming from a 7f handicap with Class 2 backclass
* I found 4 similar winners with that profile
* Those not beaten more than 10 lengths were best
* Those not winning last time were best
* Similar horses had a 2-5 record
* All his wins are on Sand but hes had few turf oppurtunities
* Last time on Grass he was 3rd in a 0-95 Handicap
* That was a much better race and he was out of the weights
* Absent more than 10 weeks before that race as well
* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a serious chance

Thirsk 6.00

Not enough of these 6f sellers to draw any firm conclusions
but I would rather have the older horses especially if having a recent run.
Last years 3rd BONNIE PRINCE BLUE has a sound chance and MARK ANTHONY could also go well.
Its easier to go with MARK ANTHONY on his last run but just
on profiles BONNIE PRINCE BLUE comes out best.

Warwick 6.15

My gut says CHOICE OF REMARK
My stats say No as no similar winner had 4 + runs

Thirsk 6.30

5/1 We´ll Deal Again, 13/2 Desert Strike, 8/1 Mullglen
9/1 River Falcon, 10/1 Bossy Kitty, 10/1 Chosen One
10/1 Dancing Freddy, 10/1 Sir Nod, 12/1 Leonid Glow
14/1 Clear Ice, 14/1 Mandalay King, 16/1 Incomparable
20/1 Sea Salt, BelinSky, 33/1 Ace Of Spies, 66/1 Sea Rover.

* This is a 6f Handicap
* I found the following to all be negatives
* BOSSY KITTY – INCOMPARABLE – SEA SALT
* The above 3 have hideous draws
* RIVER FALCON too old for one run this year
* LEONID GLOW – Absent too long as a mare
* SEA ROVER – BELINSky both weak
* ACE OF SPIES doesnt offer enough
* CLEAR ICE – No 4yo won from a seller
* ACE OF SPIES is unsafe
* WE´LL DEAL AGAIN exposed 4yo from 5f
* Similar horses were 1-59 that winner had more backclass
* DANCING FREDDY fails the same angles
* CHOSEN ONE – Lack of backclass troubles me
* MULLGLEN – Exposed 5yo 1 run this year from 5f
* Similar horses had a 0-17 record which troubles me
* MANDALAY KING – Unimpressive profile
* SIR NOD – Age and absence leaves him vulnerable

SELECTION

* DESERT STRIKE – Shortlisting him
* Not because he is statistically sound he is just average
* I have had a tip for him from a good source
* Very eyecatching on video last time as well

Thirsk 7.00

* Couldnt sort this race out
* I would not have backed these
* Lady Chaparral – Too inexperienced for 4yo filly
* The Caped Crusader – Not overkeen from 3yo handicap

Thirsk 7.30

13/2 Trans Sonic, 8/1 More Than Many, 8/1 Mujaadel
8/1 Our Boy Barrington, 8/1 Ravi River, 10/1 Legal Legacy
10/1 Rosbay, 14/1 Emeralds Spirit, 14/1 Fazza, 16/1 Mozayada
16/1 Tobrata, 20/1 Apache Warrior, 20/1 Call Of Duty 20/1 Hill Tribe,
20/1 Red Scintilla, 33/1 Baltimore Jack 33/1 Chambers, 33/1 Fifty Moore.

* This is a Mile Handicap
* I looked at all Handicaps here with 12-18 runners
* There were 23 of these races since 2009
* The best place to be drawn is stalls 3-14
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 7 6 7 9 4 5 3 10 7 4 12 4 3 8 6 6 9
* LEGAL LEGACY – Profile not good enough to ignore draw
* EMERALDS SPIRIT – Negative profile and draw
* MUJAADEL won a 7f handicap last time
* Horses doing that had a 1-40 record trying to follow up
* That winner had 4 runs this year he has two
* He looks unsafe to me
* OUR BOY BARRINGTON – comes from 3yo handicap
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* RED SCINTILLA – Fillies from 3yo handicaps are 0-31
* TOBRATA – lacks backclass from 7f with 1 run this year
* ROSBAY – down from 10f and 1 run this year
* Thats not a safe profile and he is unsteady
* BALTIMORE JACK – CHAMBERS look weak
* FIFTY MOORE – Not easy to like first time
* CALL OF DUTY ran too badly last time
* HILL TRIBE – Didnt offer enough
* APACHE WARRIOR – Too inexperienced
* MOZAYADA – comes out badly
* MORE THAN MANY – respected but not quite right
* RAVI RIVER – respected but old to be following up
* FAZZA – Strong runner
* TRANS SONIC comes out well
* Exposed 8yo coming from 7f with 3 + runs that year
* Beaten last time but not losing more than 10 lengths
* Similar horses had a 3-5 record

SHORTLIST

TRANS SONIC – Win Bet 8/1

FAZZA – Saver Bet 12/1

Warwick 7.45

This is a 3yo handicap over 7f. I have Freckenham as a
negative failing a 0-36 statistic.  Shostakovich was not
able to be matched to a winner. Tamareen just failed as
he didn’t have the backclass and Nawaashi is supossed to
be the owners second string. I don’t like the race but the
best profile was ROSSETTI. Horses with his profile had
a 6 W 2 record so I will go with him but dislike this race.

Warwick 8.15 – I wouldnt oppose APRIL FOOL

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