Picking a Cheltenham Festival 2018 Winner

Picking a Cheltenham Festival 2018 Winner

Many punters will spend lots of time going through the cards looking for the value at the Cheltenham festival. We can help you further! Check out this horse generator which will hopefully select you a winning horse at the 2018 Cheltenham festival. The Gold Cup again has an open look to it with the latest Cheltenham betting odds making the Nicky Henderson trained Might Bite as the 10/3 favourite.

The 9 year old son of Scorpion has always had an incredible amount of ability but has not always had his head firmly on the game. His record under rules now stands at 9 victories in his 14 starts that have included his last 5. He has put in some breath-taking performances in the last few seasons so his position at the head of betting is justified.

Back in December 2016 and the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices Chase, Might Bite was sent off at 11/2 but put in a jaw dropping performance. He pulled 18 lengths ahead before falling at the last in which he was about to clock a very fast time. This performance was the first time Might Bite firmly establish himself as one of the most exciting horses around. This was also another indication of the horse not always have his mind on the job in the finishing stages of a race.

Read the rest of this entry

Saturday Horse Racing Tip

I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f – 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC Betfred

Best Wishes

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

The Great St Wilfrid Sprint

3.55 Ripon – The Great St Wilfrid
Long term members will know I love the big sprints and today instead of looking through each runner one by one, I thought it may be interesting for me to discuss how I have analysed the race. Basically I am thinking out loud here …..
This race is complicated slightly by the fact the going is likely to be good to firm. This gives lower draws more of a chance; if it was good or softer then it would be high all the way. I am torn as all the best pace is low, but the specific race stats point strongly to high. I think the way to go is to back more than one runner – a method I often use in big sprints.
OK – let’s look at the favourite. Markab was definitely unlucky in the Wokingham when 4th and best of the stands side runners. He also was arguably unlucky at Goodwood in the Stewards Cup when 4th again. He is a worthy favourite, but the middle draw in 10 is not ideal and at the prices he looks a little tight. Don’t get me wrong – he is a worthy favourite and the most likely winner, but successful betting is about getting value and I’m not convinced he is value.
2nd favourite Excusez Moi won this race in 2006 and has been in decent form all year. Could be perfectly drawn in 19, but my biggest concern is that he tends to be held up and this is a pace track – a track that favours front runners / prominent racers. Of course people will argue that he won in 2006 so what is the problem  – however at around 7/1 I’m not going to be backing a hold up horse in this race. I may be wrong but that is my thinking.
Outside the top 2, most betting firms go 12/1 and I am hoping that we will find some value amongst the double figure prices.
Advanced – a definite for my shortlist. Has form in these big field handicaps (won Ayr Gold Cup); decent 6th in Wokingham this year; could have a good high draw. Does not race right up with the pace, but recently has only been held up once in last five starts. Amy Ryan is decent for 5lb claimer.
Hitchens – has good speed figures and is looking well handicapped after some recent modest efforts. Concern is that since switching stables to Barron the hold is being held up; he needs to be closer to the pace today and if he is ridden quite handy then he may be worth getting on ‘in running’.
Joseph Henry – could have the plum draw in 20 and I think David Allen is a good jockey booking as he rides his mounts prominently in sprints which is a plus. Not sure Joseph Henry is quite good enough to win here but looks an each way bet to me. Last run over a distance that was not ideal can be ignored.
Of the low draws I like Striking Spirit best – drawn 1 which could prove better than the pundits predict. Expect him to track Tamagin down that rail and looks overpriced to me. Ran well enough in the Stewards Cup (best finish of any horse drawn in the 20s).
Of the remainder I could not rule out Jimmy Styles, Judge ‘N’ Jury, Fullandby, Kostar and Ishetoo – so as you can see this is not easy!
All in all I think I will back one either side(each way) – those being Joseph Henry and Striking Spirit. I may well have covers on Hitchens and Advanced – just a couple of quid on each to balance the main bets.
Joseph Henry 14/1 with Sportingbet ; Striking Spirit 20/1 with Skybet – both are offering 1st five for each way
If you are punting good luck!

Dave Renham

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport

Local pride is all to play for this weekend with three local derbies in the Premiership. Newcastle visit the Riverside to face Middlesbrough on Saturday, while on Super Sunday Blue faces Red in Manchester as City play United. On Sunday afternoon Chelsea welcome Arsenal in the London derby, with a chance for the Blues to possibly kill off the Gunners title ambitions. The Hennesy Gold Cup is the big race of the weekend at Newbury, where Paul Nicholls will be looking to replicate his success from last year with the phenomenal Denman.

Weekend Football

Manchester City v Manchester United, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 1:30pm

City welcome United to the City of Manchester Stadium, with their two victories in last years Manchester derby’s fresh in their memories. City won this fixture 1-0 last season, although it will probably be the 2-1 win at Old Trafford that they will draw from in the build up to this weekend. United will be looking to avenge those defeats, the first time City had done the double over United in nearly 40 years. They have overcome their slow start and are now looking to close down Chelsea and Liverpool’s 8 point lead over them.

Manchester City are 3/1 with Pagebet bookmaker to claim a third successive win in the Manchester Derby, while Manchester United are 4/5 with Centrebet to claim top honours in the city.

If Carlos Tevez scores at anytime during Manchester City v Manchester United, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Man City v Man United finishes 0-0 BGbet will refund all losing correct score bets on that game.¹

Chelsea v Arsenal, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 4:30pm

A respondent Arsenal will travel to Stamford Bridge on Sunday following their midweek Champions League win. Niklas Bendtners late goal against Dynamo Kiev eased some of the pressure that had been building with recent poor results, and that had been heightened following William Gallas’ comments last week. Chelsea will still fancy their chances against the Gunners, and will look to exploit any weaknesses that have been exposed in recent events.

Chelsea are the 4/6 favourites with BGbet to pull further clear of the Gunners at the top, while Arsenal are 4/1 with VCbet to get their season back on track with a victory.

If Joe Cole scores at anytime during Chelsea v Arsenal, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

Liverpool v West Ham United, Monday, Setanta Sports 1, 8:00pm

Liverpool face West Ham in the Monday night game, hoping Arsenal would have helped them to stay at the top of the Premiership. However, if the Gunners do not beat Chelsea then Liverpool will need to win this game to reclaim their place at the top. West Ham will enter this game with some confidence following their win over Sunderland last week. That was the Hammers first win since September, although they face a difficult task at Anfield.

Liverpool are 1/3 favourites with bookmakers VCbet to continue their time at the top of the Premiership, with West Ham 9/1 at Pagebet to shock the league leaders at Anfield.

If Dirk Kuyt scores at anytime during Liverpool v West Ham United, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

Championship and SPL football, throughout the weekend, Sky Sports & Setanta Sports

There is a full set of Championship football this weekend, including the Midlands derby where Wolves entertain Birmingham. These two local rivals sit first and second in the Championship respectively, and Birmingham will be looking to cut Wolve’s six point lead over them at Molineux this weekend. The two Welsh sides in the Championship meet on Sunday when rivals Cardiff travel to Swansea, with both in the hunt for a playoff place. Two other sides just outside of the playoff places meet on Saturday when Bristol City travel to Deepdale to meet Preston, while Monday night’s game sees Reading attempt to strengthen their playoff position against struggling Coventry. In the SPL Rangers meet Hearts as they look to close the 4 point gap to rivals Celtic when they meet third place Hearts on Saturday.

If Sam Vokes scores at anytime during Wolves v Birmingham, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Nacho Novo scores at anytime during Hearts v Rangers, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Jon Parkin scores at anytime during Preston v Bristol City, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Febian Brandy scores at anytime during Swansea v Cardiff, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Stephen Hunt scores at anytime during Reading v Coventry, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer bet stakes on the match.¹

Place a correct score bet on any of the above matches this week, and if it gets beat by an injury time goal BGbet will refund all losing correct score stakes on that match.¹

Destruction Derby

If any player gets sent off in the 2 derby matches on Sunday, Man. United v Man. City OR Chelsea v Arsenal, Pagebet will refund all 1st goalscorer and correct score bets on the match the red card occurs in.2

1st SCORER 2nd CHANCE

Applies to all Premier League matches this weekend

Place a First Goal scorer bet and if your player fails to score the first goal but scores at any other time in the match VCbet will refund your stake as a free bet on any future match.3

Can you beat Victor?

You receive a mythical £1 on each correct score you choose. If your prediction is correct your mythical £1 will be settled at the VC Bet price on that correct score.

Every one who Beats Victor’s total points score from the four matches wins a £5 free bet and if you are the tipster with the largest overall return you win a £500 free bet!

Victor’s selections are…

Aston Villa v Fulham: 3-1
Middlesbrough v Newcastle United: 2-2
Manchester City v Manchester United: 2-3
Chelsea v Arsenal: 2-1

Entry is free, simply register and open an account to take on Victor today!4

Weekend Horse Racing

This weekends racing takes us to Newbury where the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase at 2.40pm on Saturday is the headline race.

Denman romped home at 5/1 to take this race last year, and his winning trainer Paul Nicholls is back again with three runners this year. Big Buck’s looks to be Nicholl’s best chance at successive winners, as he is a 5/1 shot with Pagebet. Air Force One and Character Building are leading the chasing pack in the betting, at 6/1with Centrebet and 7/1 at BGbet respectively.

Paul Maloney won this race is 2006, and is looking for a repeat on High Chimes, a 16/1 chance with BGbet, while Tony McCoy saddles Albertas Run for Jonjo O’Neill, a 10/1 shot with Pagebet.

Jump for Joy

If your horse jumps the last fence in the lead and gets beaten Pagebet will refund your win only single on that horse.5

If your horse gets beat by a Short Head or Nose in the Hennesy Gold Cup Chase at 14.40pm at Newbury on Saturday, BGbet will refund your win stakes in the form of free bets.6

FIRST OR LAST FREE FALL …

Applies to the Hennessy Gold Cup, 2.40pm Saturday at Newbury

If your selection FALLS , VCbet will refund your losing stake as a free bet on Sunday’s racing!

Open an account with any of the following bookmakers and receive a free bet:

Pagebet £25 Free Bet
VC Bet £100 in Free Bets
Centrebet £20 Free Bet
BGbet £100 Free Bet

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport
The National Hunt season starts in earnest this weekend as Cheltenham hosts the Open Meeting, with the highlight coming on Saturday afternoon in the form of the Gold Cup Chase. The two early Premiership leaders will be looking to gain an advantage in one of the most competitive Premiership races in years this weekend. Liverpool are in action first when they travel to Bolton on Saturday lunch time, while Chelsea must wait until later that day to face bottom side West Bromwich Albion. On Sunday Everton host Middlesbrough as seventh meets eighth, while Hull look to continue their bright start when they host Manchester City.

Weekend Horse Racing

Cheltenham hosts the first jumps festival of the new season this weekend, with the three day Open Meeting. The highlight is the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at 2:35pm on Saturday, where Silverburn is the 10/3 favourite at VCbet, with Imperial Commander, a 6/1 shot with Pagebet, and Barbers Shop at 8/1 with BGbet following closely behind in the betting.

Last years winning trainer Ferdy Murphy is looking to defend the crown he won with 13/2 chance L’Antartique, and his challenger this year is Three Mirrors. However another success would be even more impressive this time round as Three Mirrors is currently a 40/1 outsider with both Pagebet and BGbet.

Existing Pagebet customers! Have FIVE outright win bets of £25 or more on any FIVE different races at Cheltenham over the 3 days of the festival, and Pagebet will give you a free £25 bet. 1

If your horse falls in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at 2.35pm Cheltenham on Saturday, we will refund your win stakes in the form of free bets.2

Free Fall…

All races at Cheltenham (Saturday & Sunday)

If your selection FALLS, VCbet will refund your losing stake as a free bet on the following day’s racing!3

Weekend Football

Bolton v Liverpool, Saturday, Sky Sports 1, 12:45pm

Liverpool are the first of the leaders to play this weekend, and they will want to leave the Reebok with a three point lead over Chelsea after their game against Bolton. After their stutter against Tottenham the Reds looked to be back on form last week against West Brom as they ran out 3-0 winners. Robbie Keane scored his first Premier League goals for Liverpool at Anfield as his brace sealed the game before half time. Bolton have had a mini revival of late which has seen them climb from the relegation to mid table. They beat upstarts Hull 1-0 last time out, and that came on the back of a 2-0 win over Man City at the Reebok.

Bolton are 5/1 with BGbet to continue their good form, while Liverpool are 3/5 with Pagebet to build their lead at the top of the Premiership.

If Ryan Babel scores at anytime during Bolton v Liverpool, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

West Bromwich Albion v Chelsea, Saturday, Setanta Sports 1, 5:30pm

Chelsea travel to the Hawthorns on Saturday evening for a possible top v bottom clash. Going into the weekend they were top thanks to their goal difference, which is down to new coach Phil Scolari’s attacking mentality. They have scored 16 goals in their last 5 Premiership games, and the West Brom defence will have to hold strong to withstand the formidable Chelsea attack. The Baggies will certainly have to put on a better performance than they have done so far against other sides from the “Big Four”, as Liverpool beat them 3-0 last week, while Manchester United put four past them in October.

West Brom are a massive 7/1 outsider with Centrebet to cause a huge upset, while Chelsea are 2/7 with BGbet to move back to the top of the Premiership.

If Florent Malouda scores at anytime during West Brom v Chelsea, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

Everton v Middlesbrough, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 1:30pm

Two sides who have had promising starts to the campaign meet on Sunday when Middlesbrough travel to Goodison to face Everton. Everton will be full of confidence as they have won their last three Premiership games, although in each of these games they have only scored in the last ten minutes. This knack of scoring late goals was demonstrated in its most startling effect at West Ham last week, when they scored three times in the last ten minutes to come form a goal behind to win 3-1. Boro have also left it late in scoring in their last two games, as Tuncay’s 88th minute winner at Villa Park last week followed Mido’s 83rd minute goal at West Ham the week before that gave the Teesider’s a 1-1 draw.
Everton are 4/5 with Pagebet to stretch their unbeaten run to five games, with Boro 7/2 at Centrebet to continue their recent good run of form.

If Marouane Fellaini scores at anytime during Everton v Middlesbrough, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

If Everton v Middlesbrough finishes 0-0 BGbet will refund all losing correct score bets on that game.4

Hull v Manchester City, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 4:00pm

Despite their excellent start Hull will be looking to win for the first time in four Premiership games when they welcome Manchester City to the KC Stadium on Sunday. Last week’s 1-0 defeat to Bolton showed how far the Tiger’s have come this season, as many people were shocked that the Premiership new boys were beat by an established Premiership side. Prior to that game they had been brought back down to earth with successive defeats against Man Utd. and Chelsea, although they did push the Champions close at Old Trafford. Manchester City will also be looking for their first league win in four, although their pre-season expectations would have been considerably higher than Hulls. However, the addition of Robinho and Wright-Phillips has not transformed the side in the way many believed, and they will want to leave Humberside on Sunday night with some points as they prepare for a spending spree in January.
Hull are 19/10 with VCbet to continue their excellent start to the season, while BGbet make Manchester City 13/10 at the KC Stadium.

If Shaun Wright Phillips scores at anytime during Hull v Manchester City, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

Place a correct score bet on any of the above matches this week, and if it gets beat by an injury time goal BGbet will refund all losing correct score stakes on that match.¹

1st SCORER 2nd CHANCE

Applies to all Premier League matches this weekend

Place a First Goal scorer bet and if your player fails to score the first goal but scores at any other time in the match we’ll refund your stake as a free bet on any future match.5

Open an account with any of the following bookmakers and receive a free bet:

Pagebet £25 Free Bet  VC Bet  £100 in Free Bets
Centrebet £20 Free Bet  BGbet £100 Free Bet