Racing Tip For Thirsk

Thirsk 4.10

9/2 Karaka Jack, 5/1 Dubai Dynamo, 6/1 Northern Fling
7/1 Arry´s Orse, 8/1 Reel Buddy Star, 8/1 Summer Dancer
10/1 Everymanforhimself, Ginger Ted, 12/1 Illustrious Prince 20/1 Qadar, 25/1 Arabian Pride, 25/1 Bond Fastrac.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* REEL BUDDY STAR is exposed absent 7 + months
* Thats a lot for horse on a career mark
* Ignore the horses from 3yo handicaps
* BOND FASTRAC – ARABIAN PRIDE fail that
* Horses drawn in stall 1-2 have underperformed
* 30 races here since 2008 with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2 have a 1-56 record
* SUMMER DANCER has a bad draw and modest profile
* GINGER TED has a bad draw and an unsafe profile
* QADAR is 0-27 on Grass and vulnerable
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF – Weight and absence is a worry
* ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE – Not completely out of this
* I dont like the massive stable downgrade he had this winter
* I wouldnt see him as progressive because of that

SHORTLIST

* NORTHERN FLING – Shaky profile but a possible
* I’d like another run this year or a shorter absence
* ARRY´S ORSE – Almost right good enough to respect
* KARAKA JACK – Well treated and good profile
* DUBAI DYNAMO – Serious chance back on fast ground
* KARAKA JACK and DUBAI DYNAMO stand out to me
* DUBAI DYNAMO is a saver
* KARAKA is a win bet

——————————————–

Provided by Guy Ward.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

Racing Tip For Chester

Chester 3.20 ( from www.mathematicianbetting.co.uk )

BENEDICTE  £50 Win Bet 7/4 +
( 2/1 available at Betfred )

CRABBIES ALCOHOLIC GINGER BEER
MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES(CLASS 4) (3yo+)  1m2f75y

9/4 Crazy Chris, 5/2 Benedicte, 3/1 Nesayem, 6/1 Amroth,
12/1 Triple Cee, 50/1 Sacco D’Oro, 66/1 Amber Glow.

This is an all aged Maiden for fillies. There has been about 29 races like this at this time of year. Unraced horses were 0-46 so SACCO D´ORO is rejected. I dont want any horse beaten 10 lengths or more last time. They’ve a 1-27 record. AMBER GLOW would’ve failed that in a bumper last time out. Its very Interesting that 28 of the 29 winners were 3  year olds. Older horses have a poor 1-47 record. I’d worry CRAZY CHRIS is an older horse and that he has to give 6lbs to 4 Three year olds. It wouldnt be a surprise if one was too strong for her. The following is interesting

* September-October has 380 all aged maidens
* Thats 380 maidens at every and any distance
* Older Fillies like CRAZY CHRIS have a 6-391 record
* Those with under 4 career runs are 0-188
* Those with under 2 runs that season are 0-136

Those stats are not as great as they sound as many of
them were not fancied but it raises great doubts about
CRAZY CHRIS’s ability to give weight away and I’d
be looking for an alternative. AMROTH doesnt have
any major flaws I can see. BENEDICTE was expensive
and you can bet she wasnt at her best last time out and
had a quiet introduction. I don’t want TRIPLE CEE as
horses from 3yo handicaps were 0-24 and she comes
down from 13f to 10f and I see her as unsafe. I would
look to AMROTH as one of the potential winners but
BENEDICTE looked quite an interesting runner. Very
well bred half sister to Amadeus Wolf and I think she
will improve a lot on her second run. NESAYEM  sets
the benchmark coming from Handicaps rated 67. She
sets a reasonable standard and will be able to draw on
her experience here. What draws me to BENEDICTE
is the fact NESAYEM whilst attractive statistically
couldnt beat Pyrus Time two runs ago at Lingfield
and that horse has a 0-14 record and was beaten in
a seller yesterday and is exposed and I think I should
give the chance to BENEDICTE to improve past her.

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Free Horse Racing Tips