I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral Bet365 William Hill

===============================

This was provided by Guy Ward aka The Mathematician

To visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Free Horse Racing Tips

News this week of a new FREE software tool.
I have seen it plugged in a few places already
but if you missed it here is the link

<== Free Racing Software  ==>

What it does is follow key daily racing info
and alert you in real time as to any important changes
such as non runners and jockey changes.

If out of the blue some tin pot jockey gets replaced
by Kieran Fallon you would want to know about
that ASAP would you not?

Such news is market shifting data that will impact
what you back or lay.
Trader types especially will benefit from knowing news fast.

Any Catches?

Well this software is free..you can take it an run.
You must register an email address to get it however.

Also the makers intend it as a demo of their skill at making
good racing software.
They have a new paid for racing bot they will of course
want to tell you about.

All fair enough I feel seeing as you get to keep the
free software.

Here is the link

<== Free Racing Software  ==>

Best Races For Favourites

If you examine the long term history of  individual horse races you will
see that some have a tendency for the favourite to do well and some have
a tendency for the favourite to do poorly.

There are two key measures of good or bad.

- Strike rate of favourites

and

- The profit or loss from betting them.

Below is a quick and ready reckoner to the races historically good for favourites for today’s racing.

Newmarket 2.45

Newbury 3.40

Bangor 4.40, 5.15

Uttoxeter 6.20

Doncaster 6.30, 7.05, 7.35

The above was copied from Dave Renham’s free horse racing blog and are based on his research over many years of past racing.

He puts up similar for free each Saturday.

His paid for service however provides a lot lot more detail.

eg Strike rates, return on investment info for layers pinpointing the poor races for poor favourites PLUS a huge amount of research into other areas of racing such as draw bias trainer stats etc.

If interested in testing out his service for free for a month visit the page below which is a secret page with a free trial deal for Sports Betting Blog readers.

http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/sbb-free-trial.php

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS NATIONAL HUNT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Ayr favourites

Newbury favourites

Warwick favourites

The above is just a small snippet of the horse racing statistics from the Saturday email of the RacingTrends service.

For those of you who are interested in self improvement .. a Free Horse Racing Course is also availalbe from RacingTrends.

Uk Horse racing researcher Dave Renham has just released a FREE Horse Racing Course

It covers some basics those new to betting on the horses may find useful to help them get to grips with the game.

Also however there is a bit of more advanced thinking in the latter chapters as Dave expalins some of the key elements of race form one should use if assessing a horse race.

On the whole its an interesting read and well worth a look at the hefty price tag of a big fat zero.

Get your copy now at the link below.

Click Here ==>      Free Horse Racing Course

Free Horse Racing Tip from www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

HAYDOCK 2.55

Betfred.COM OLD BOROUGH CUP
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)
(3yo+ 0-105) 1m6f

5/1 Kings Destiny, 6/1 Alanbrooke, 7/1 Hits Only Vic, 10/1
Chiberta King, 10/1 Yes Mr President, 12/1 Magicalmysterytour 12/1 Nemo Spirit, 14/1 Conquisto, 14/1 Precision Break, 16/1 Highland Legacy, 20/1 Gordonsville, 20/1 Lord Theo, 20/1 Som Tala, 20/1 Spring Jim, 25/1 Macorville, 33/1 Clear Reef 33/1 Hindu Kush.

This Old Borough Cup has 9 renewals and although
it has upgraded over the years in class its a good stats
race and I think we should be able to get this sorted.
I would advise you follow these trends in the race

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs had a 0-51 record
* Every past winner had at least 4 runs that season
* Every past winner was aged 3-4-5
* Every past winner ran within 7 weeks
* Every past winner finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time (0-57)
* No winner lost by 6 or more lengths last time (0-62)
* No past winners dropped from 2 Miles or more
* Horses aged 4 or more coming from 12f or less are 0-43
* This leaves to a shortlist of 2 horses
* ALANBROOKE – KINGS DESTINY
* I think KING’S DESTINY stands out
* Look at horses aged 3 in this race from 12f races
* When they have between 5 and 8 career starts
* When they finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time out

3 year olds that have that profile had a 4-5 record in this
race. The 5 horses finished W W W 2 W and the only one
that didnt win finished second to one of the winners so he
couldnt have won. Thats the outstanding profile in this race and I am placing KINGS DESTINY in the new statistically strong horses paragraph.

SELECTION

KINGS DESTINY – Win Bet  11/2 at Blue Square, CanBet , sportingbet

I have gone with IMPERIAL SWORD at Ayr.
To be honest if I had complete faith in the Trainer and could rely on the fact
he is doing his best I might have upgraded him as a bet. Its a very hard yard to read though.
IMPERIAL SWORD was 2nd in this race last year and should have won.
Ran well last time. He will probably be in last place 3 furlongs out and will come late.
Happy enough with the 8/1 but I know we are taking a risk with the stable.

AYR 5.50

CHAMPAGNE G H MUMM GRAND CRU APPRENTICE
HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) 6f

4/1 Hitches Dubai, 9/2 Botham, 9/2 Downhill Skier,
11/2 Feeling Fresh, 7/1 Imperial Sword, 10/1 Thunder Bay,
12/1 Almost Married, 12/1 Liberty Trail, 25/1 Coconut Moon, 33/1 Forrest Star.

* 317 Similar low grade handicaps at this time of year
* Only seven of the 317 winners came from Maidens
* Those that came from 5f maidens were 0-42
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that
* Horses aged 4 from maidens were 0-28
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that as well so he is avoided
* ALMOST MARRIED is a negative
* He won last years race but not with just 1 run and 81 days off
* FEELING FRESH has a poor profile in my view
* Horses from 8f or more with 3 or less runs that year are 2-78
* None did it with 13 or more runs
* FEELING FRESH fails that and looks opposable
* THUNDER BAY has a poor profile
* FORREST STAR – COCONUT MOON are out of form mares
* LIBERTY TRAIL has an unsafe profile
* All the above horses are negatives
* DOWNHILL SKIER is drawn 1 and I dont like that
* The last 12 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* 11 of the 12 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* He beat IMPERIAL SWORD last time out
* IMPERIAL SWORD was second in this race last year
* He was also unlucky in running
* BOTHAM is well drawn and has no obvious flaws
* I prefer IMPERIAL SWORD and Botham

SELECTION

IMPERIAL SWORD

Blog Comment was 8/1 or more earlier
Now 7/1 Betfred, Corals , Tote

Guy Ward

The Mathematician

to visit guys site click here => free horse racing tips

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip from The Mathematician

To Visit his site click here ==> Horsre Racing Tips

NEWMARKET 1.50

SIGN UP BONUS AT BetInternet.com
MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 4) (3yo) 1m

2/1 Invisible Man, 3/1 Merdaam, 4/1 Present Alchemy, 7/1 Kapsiliat, 10/1 Secret Life, 12/1 Bourne, 12/1 Moojeh, 14/1 Kimberley Rocks, 20/1 Bengal Tiger, 33/1 A Lot Of Red, 33/1 Kilkenny Bay, 66/1 Cake Stand, 66/1 Inside Trade, 66/1 Laminka, 66/1 Supera.

Not a lot to say in the Opening maiden. I think I would have to go down the Each Way double route and consider that the best horse to do that with is INVISIBLE MAN. In the last 7 renewals of this race 4 winners were unraced shocks at double figure prices so much as you can see 20/1 bar 3 and assume it is a race full of unfancied horses its rarely as simple as that and I think the each way double makes sense. I have chosen INVISIBLE MAN as the selection as I was concerned about his main rivals. MERDAAM could be being handicapped on his 3rd run and KAPSILIAT is a filly from a 6f race and just one career run. I’d be inclined to oppose her especially from a low draw. INVISIBLE MAN may not win but he is likely to place. There were 24 horses starting favourite in all similar races with 3 or more runs as INVISIBLE MAN has and 20 of the 24 that tried placed or won. That suggests to me the saftest bet here is INVISIBLE MAN in an each way double. My best suggestion as the second leg is Riggins in the 2.20 at Newmarket who should go very close as well.
Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horsre Racing Tips

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

NOTTINGHAM 1.50

BET ON TotePLACEPOT AT ToteSPORT.COM

HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 5f13y

11/4 Silver Prelude, 9/2 Molly Two, 12/1 Bluebok,

12/1 Ryedane, 12/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 14/1 Gwilym,

16/1 Lake Chini, 16/1 Ronnie Howe, 16/1 The History

Man, 20/1 Comptonspirit, King Of Swords, 25/1

Brandywell Boy, 33/1 Thoughtsofstardom.

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-70 horses

* Nottingham has 11 renewals of this race

* There has been 162 similar races elsewhere

* Taking the Nottingham race first

* Horses with under 21 career runs were 0-70

* Horses that came from 6f or more were 0-36

* None of the 11 winners were aged 8 or more

* Horses with under 9st scored badly (1-84)

* Horses absent over a month also struggled

Some of these trends have to be broken today and I think the horse that will do it is SILVER PRELUDE. I totally agree with the Racing Post that now he is back at 5f he can dominate the stands rain. SILVER PRELUDE may be better on the sand but he is also effective on turf. He is very well handicapped off 55. He has his lowest turf mark in years and if you look at the class of horse he was facing a few months ago it dwarfs these. His turf form isnt as good but it is still more than good enough to beat this 0-70 field. Dont forget he is just about bottomweight as well for this and all his 3 wins on Turf have been over 5f. I think he could blow these away on his best form. He comes from a Folkestone race where he made all the running for the first 5f. He came into that race with question marks. He had lost in every 6f race he had contested before. He was an 8yo absent over a month so could have been fitter. This front runner needs the drop down in trip and I cant see many of these catching him in this race. There are certainly some negatives about his opponents.

* There has been 162 of these 5f handicaps in May

* Fillies that had under 9 starts had a poor 2-71 record

* None of those had just 1 run that season (0-20)

* None of those were aged 4 or more (0-30)

* MOLLY TWO fails those trends

* Fillies aged 4 with under 13 runs won just 3 of the 162 races

* None had under 3 runs this season though

* MOLLY TWO has that to overcome

* All winning fillies had more backclass than her

* LAKE CHINI is out aged 7 with long absence

* KING OF SWORDS doesnt look ready to win

* THE HISTORY MAN has all his wins after July

* He should need more runs to get to peak fitness

* TYRANNOSAURUS REX is exposed with a 44 day break

* Exposed Male horses that had run this year struggled with absence

* Those like him absent over a month were 1-116

* All 42 aged 5 like TYRANNOSAURUS REX lost

* I think the absence beats TYRANNOSAURUS REX

* THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM is in the same boat

I think there are several that might win this if others

dissapoint. I quite like the mare COMPTONSPIRIT

as a big priced runner but the way this should map

out is that SILVER PRELUDE a fit and in form and

very well handicapped runner should make all and

run these into the ground. I will be surprised if any

horse manages to get to him and overtake him.

SHORTLIST

* COMPTONSPIRIT is value at 25/1

* She was 4th in this race last year

* I like her profile and she fits the “Nottingham” stats

* SILVER PRELUDE looks the one

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

Silver Prelude is 3/1 with Sportingbet and Betfair

Silver Prelude is 11/4 with Bet365 – Betfred – BSq

Silver Prelude is 5/2 with Tote – VC

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Advice