Free Horse Racing Trainer Research

Free Horse Racing Trainer Research

Each racing trainer has their own quirks and tendencies.

One area where they can differ is on seasonality or month of the year.

Different training regimes or even outlook on race targeting

can produce vastly different trainer performance results on a month by month basis.

Trainers stats for the season or year are commonly enough reported but they can be very misleading at times.

Take for example a flat trainer who perhaps roughly breaks even if followed
all season.

Dig a little deeper and you may find that early season performance is poor but he tends to pick up as the season goes on.

That slightly deeper knowledge may sway you to duck him early season but pay much more attention to him later in the season.

Anyone looking at annual stats alone may be blind to the truth.

Each month one of the small extras PunterProfits provide their full members

with is a report detailing Trainer performance records for the month ahead.

This month they have set it as free for all to view.

See ====>      July Trainer Stats

A few suggested ways to use the info:

#1 – Extra useful data for you if you like to assess races for yourself in
detail

#2 – A quick and ready reckoner to cross check any personal punt you were going to have.

ie If July trainers stats are favourable you can have more confidence you were correct.

If not perhaps revaluate your selection.

#3 – create a simple set of mechanical rules based on the report info to in

effect give yourself a mini trainer based horse racing system for July

I hope it helps add a small bit of extra edge to your performance over July.

.

Big Priced Each Way Bets

A couple of big priced each way bets suggested today by Guy from the Mathematician Website.

to visit his site click here ==> Free Horse Racing Tips

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Only Musselburgh on the Flat today and that track wouldn’t
make my list of favourite tracks. Kempton is on the sand a
tough competetive card but we are short of flat cards today.
I have dipped into a National Hunt race but the advice below
I would not steam into with big cash.

Next week will be a huge week. There is a Bank Holiday.
Some very big trend races. There is a Grand National.
I will be stronger at Aintree this year than ever before
witha  huge ammount of pre research already done.

T o d a y ‘s  O p t i o n s

I could have had some shorter priced bets but I didnt want
that. Equally some of my bigger priced options overreach
a little and I am resigned to having a very quiet Saturday
knowing full well we will fire up dramatically next week.
Being a Saturday I will highlight one bet. I’ve a negative
in the 4.05pm and the two obvious alternatives are short
of what I want. There are two very big prices in the race.

Haydock 4.05

VINTAGE STAR 16/1 Each Way

DIZZY RIVER  16/1 Each Way

You can get 18/1 and 20/1 in the offices and both will
be bigger on Betfair. I you bet both each way we have
only got to get one placed to break level and I feel we
could do better than that. Novice Handicaps are quite
complicated but my angles offer encouragement and I
think on a dangerous Saturday we should keep it tight
and wait for Grand National week where tracks suit me.

S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c   T o d a y

H a y d o c k   4.05

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails my angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles over 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails some angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses coming from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* Horses coming up in trip from 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

I think the race is set up for an each way alternative.
I do not want CHADFORD from a 4yo race. KINGS LODGE
and EYRE APPARENT didnt run well enough last time.

* SYDNEY PAGET – 5yo from a novice hurdle
* He has an absence of over 7 weeks
* I found a 2-54 record from these types
* None like SYDNEY PAGET won last time out
* None carried more than 10st 9lbs and he has 11st 10lbs
* SYDNEY PAGET feels unsafe to me
* PINEROLO – Overall positive but not brilliant
* VINTAGE STAR – Hard to read but overall positive
* DIZZY RIVER – Shortlistable and not a bad price
* PERSIAN SNOW – I’d prefer more runs this season
* I found a 7yo winner like him but not 6yo
* GRANDADS HORSE – Comes out as a potential e/w bet
* GRANDADS HORSE – Weight could be his biggest flaw
* All the similar winners had marginally lighter weights

Selection

Split Stake Bet

* VINTAGE STAR 20/1 Each Way S James
* DIZZY RIVER  20/1 Each Way  S James

* Only 1 needs to place to return stakes
* Every £10 bet means £2.50 each way on both horses

.

Free Racing Tip For Newmarket

I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral Bet365 William Hill

===============================

This was provided by Guy Ward aka The Mathematician

To visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Free Horse Racing Tips

Free Horse Racing Software

News this week of a new FREE software tool.
I have seen it plugged in a few places already
but if you missed it here is the link

<== Free Racing Software  ==>

What it does is follow key daily racing info
and alert you in real time as to any important changes
such as non runners and jockey changes.

If out of the blue some tin pot jockey gets replaced
by Kieran Fallon you would want to know about
that ASAP would you not?

Such news is market shifting data that will impact
what you back or lay.
Trader types especially will benefit from knowing news fast.

Any Catches?

Well this software is free..you can take it an run.
You must register an email address to get it however.

Also the makers intend it as a demo of their skill at making
good racing software.
They have a new paid for racing bot they will of course
want to tell you about.

All fair enough I feel seeing as you get to keep the
free software.

Here is the link

<== Free Racing Software  ==>

Best Races For Favourites

Best Races For Favourites

If you examine the long term history of  individual horse races you will
see that some have a tendency for the favourite to do well and some have
a tendency for the favourite to do poorly.

There are two key measures of good or bad.

- Strike rate of favourites

and

- The profit or loss from betting them.

Below is a quick and ready reckoner to the races historically good for favourites for today’s racing.

Newmarket 2.45

Newbury 3.40

Bangor 4.40, 5.15

Uttoxeter 6.20

Doncaster 6.30, 7.05, 7.35

The above was copied from Dave Renham’s free horse racing blog and are based on his research over many years of past racing.

He puts up similar for free each Saturday.

His paid for service however provides a lot lot more detail.

eg Strike rates, return on investment info for layers pinpointing the poor races for poor favourites PLUS a huge amount of research into other areas of racing such as draw bias trainer stats etc.

If interested in testing out his service for free for a month visit the page below which is a secret page with a free trial deal for Sports Betting Blog readers.

http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/sbb-free-trial.php

Saturday National Hunt Favourite Statistics

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS NATIONAL HUNT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Ayr favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

handicap chases

43

130

33.1

+£3.90

+3.0

2.40, 3.15, 4.25

novice / beginner chases

30

51

58.8

+£5.63

+11.0

2.10

handicap hurdles

37

119

31.1

-£8.71

-7.3

3.50, 4.55

novice hurdles

38

74

51.4

-£6.82

-9.2

1.40

Newbury favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

non handicap chases

29

61

47.5

-£5.80

-9.5

2.30, 3.40

novice / beginner chases

20

37

54.1

-£1.14

-3.1

1.30

handicap hurdles

26

88

29.6

+£5.35

+6.1

2.00

non handicap hurdles

53

118

44.9

+£6.42

+5.4

3.05

novice hurdles

40

90

44.4

+£3.77

+4.2

4.15

bumpers

10

43

23.3

-£9.52

-22.2

4.45

Warwick favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

handicap chases

32

84

38.1

+£13.19

+15.7

3.20

novice / beginner chases

30

55

54.6

+£3.99

+7.3

1.45, 2.15

handicap hurdles

30

84

35.7

+£19.42

+23.1

2.50, 4.30

novice hurdles

30

79

38.0

-£19.42

-24.6

3.55

The above is just a small snippet of the horse racing statistics from the Saturday email of the RacingTrends service.

For those of you who are interested in self improvement .. a Free Horse Racing Course is also availalbe from RacingTrends.

Free Horse Racing Course

Uk Horse racing researcher Dave Renham has just released a FREE Horse Racing Course

It covers some basics those new to betting on the horses may find useful to help them get to grips with the game.

Also however there is a bit of more advanced thinking in the latter chapters as Dave expalins some of the key elements of race form one should use if assessing a horse race.

On the whole its an interesting read and well worth a look at the hefty price tag of a big fat zero.

Get your copy now at the link below.

Click Here ==>      Free Horse Racing Course

Free Horse Racing Tip

Free Horse Racing Tip from www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

HAYDOCK 2.55

Betfred.COM OLD BOROUGH CUP
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)
(3yo+ 0-105) 1m6f

5/1 Kings Destiny, 6/1 Alanbrooke, 7/1 Hits Only Vic, 10/1
Chiberta King, 10/1 Yes Mr President, 12/1 Magicalmysterytour 12/1 Nemo Spirit, 14/1 Conquisto, 14/1 Precision Break, 16/1 Highland Legacy, 20/1 Gordonsville, 20/1 Lord Theo, 20/1 Som Tala, 20/1 Spring Jim, 25/1 Macorville, 33/1 Clear Reef 33/1 Hindu Kush.

This Old Borough Cup has 9 renewals and although
it has upgraded over the years in class its a good stats
race and I think we should be able to get this sorted.
I would advise you follow these trends in the race

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs had a 0-51 record
* Every past winner had at least 4 runs that season
* Every past winner was aged 3-4-5
* Every past winner ran within 7 weeks
* Every past winner finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time (0-57)
* No winner lost by 6 or more lengths last time (0-62)
* No past winners dropped from 2 Miles or more
* Horses aged 4 or more coming from 12f or less are 0-43
* This leaves to a shortlist of 2 horses
* ALANBROOKE – KINGS DESTINY
* I think KING’S DESTINY stands out
* Look at horses aged 3 in this race from 12f races
* When they have between 5 and 8 career starts
* When they finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time out

3 year olds that have that profile had a 4-5 record in this
race. The 5 horses finished W W W 2 W and the only one
that didnt win finished second to one of the winners so he
couldnt have won. Thats the outstanding profile in this race and I am placing KINGS DESTINY in the new statistically strong horses paragraph.

SELECTION

KINGS DESTINY – Win Bet  11/2 at blue square, canbet , sportingbet

Saturday Horse Betting

I have gone with IMPERIAL SWORD at Ayr.
To be honest if I had complete faith in the Trainer and could rely on the fact
he is doing his best I might have upgraded him as a bet. Its a very hard yard to read though.
IMPERIAL SWORD was 2nd in this race last year and should have won.
Ran well last time. He will probably be in last place 3 furlongs out and will come late.
Happy enough with the 8/1 but I know we are taking a risk with the stable.

AYR 5.50

CHAMPAGNE G H MUMM GRAND CRU APPRENTICE
HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) 6f

4/1 Hitches Dubai, 9/2 Botham, 9/2 Downhill Skier,
11/2 Feeling Fresh, 7/1 Imperial Sword, 10/1 Thunder Bay,
12/1 Almost Married, 12/1 Liberty Trail, 25/1 Coconut Moon, 33/1 Forrest Star.

* 317 Similar low grade handicaps at this time of year
* Only seven of the 317 winners came from Maidens
* Those that came from 5f maidens were 0-42
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that
* Horses aged 4 from maidens were 0-28
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that as well so he is avoided
* ALMOST MARRIED is a negative
* He won last years race but not with just 1 run and 81 days off
* FEELING FRESH has a poor profile in my view
* Horses from 8f or more with 3 or less runs that year are 2-78
* None did it with 13 or more runs
* FEELING FRESH fails that and looks opposable
* THUNDER BAY has a poor profile
* FORREST STAR – COCONUT MOON are out of form mares
* LIBERTY TRAIL has an unsafe profile
* All the above horses are negatives
* DOWNHILL SKIER is drawn 1 and I dont like that
* The last 12 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* 11 of the 12 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* He beat IMPERIAL SWORD last time out
* IMPERIAL SWORD was second in this race last year
* He was also unlucky in running
* BOTHAM is well drawn and has no obvious flaws
* I prefer IMPERIAL SWORD and Botham

SELECTION

IMPERIAL SWORD

Blog Comment was 8/1 or more earlier
Now 7/1 Betfred, Corals , Tote

Guy Ward

The Mathematician

to visit guys site click here => free horse racing tips

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip from The Mathematician

To Visit his site click here ==> Horsre Racing Tips

NEWMARKET 1.50

SIGN UP BONUS AT BetInternet.com
MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 4) (3yo) 1m

2/1 Invisible Man, 3/1 Merdaam, 4/1 Present Alchemy, 7/1 Kapsiliat, 10/1 Secret Life, 12/1 Bourne, 12/1 Moojeh, 14/1 Kimberley Rocks, 20/1 Bengal Tiger, 33/1 A Lot Of Red, 33/1 Kilkenny Bay, 66/1 Cake Stand, 66/1 Inside Trade, 66/1 Laminka, 66/1 Supera.

Not a lot to say in the Opening maiden. I think I would have to go down the Each Way double route and consider that the best horse to do that with is INVISIBLE MAN. In the last 7 renewals of this race 4 winners were unraced shocks at double figure prices so much as you can see 20/1 bar 3 and assume it is a race full of unfancied horses its rarely as simple as that and I think the each way double makes sense. I have chosen INVISIBLE MAN as the selection as I was concerned about his main rivals. MERDAAM could be being handicapped on his 3rd run and KAPSILIAT is a filly from a 6f race and just one career run. I’d be inclined to oppose her especially from a low draw. INVISIBLE MAN may not win but he is likely to place. There were 24 horses starting favourite in all similar races with 3 or more runs as INVISIBLE MAN has and 20 of the 24 that tried placed or won. That suggests to me the saftest bet here is INVISIBLE MAN in an each way double. My best suggestion as the second leg is Riggins in the 2.20 at Newmarket who should go very close as well.
Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horsre Racing Tips