Sandown Horse Racing Tip

Our regular Saturday free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician Site is below

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A pleasing result last weekend with Bob’s Worth
winning the Hennessy Gold Cup for us.

For full members today I have a firm bet at good odds advised
in the 2.45 race.
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Full Service Christmas Sale is NOW On !

See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

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Here on the free blog I have popped up a race from slightly lower down the pecking order on my main message.

Sandown  2.30

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-12-08/sandown-park/14-30/betting/

* This is a 0-147 handicap hurdle over 2 Miles
* There has been 19 renewals of this race
* There has been 58 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 58 Handicaps at 2m in Class 2-Listed-Grade 3
* Past winners had 4 5 4 9 26 7 5 6 11 7 Hurdle runs
* There is only one past winner with more than 11 runs
* That race (2006) was a falsely run race in a crawl
* Clearly horses with 4-11 hurdle races are best
* The past winners had the following days absence
* 21 28 21 6 6 28 15 9 27 13
* Past winners had these number of runs that season
* 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 4
* A recent run is important in this race
* You want a lightly raced hurdler with a recent run
* You also want a younger horse as well
* Horses aged 8 or more have a miserable 1-67 record
* PETIT ROBIN is a 9yo and I feel too risky
* He has Topweight and that bothers me as well
* Lightweights have a much better record
* Only 1 winner had more than 11st 5lbs
* That was in 2009 a poor renewal with a false pace
* STARLUCK has too much weight for 15 hurdle runs
* You want an in form horse as well
* 16 of 19 past winners of this were 1-2-3-4-5 last time
* Only one was beaten more than 12 lengths last time
* That came in a Graded race as welll
* RAJAMAND is out as a seasonal debutant
* HELIUM is too exposed
* ROWAN TIGER – I wanted a better last run
* SOFTSONG – Not keen as a 4yo from a novice hurdle
* Especially beaten last time out and so lightly raced
* I think there are better options
* DOLATULO – Didnt think he had proven enough
* SWAMPFIRE is 4 and from a Novice Handicap
* There was 1 winner aged 4 doing that
* That horse had Grade 1 form and he doesnt
* SWAMPFIRE is therefore unsafe but respected
* INTO WAIN – I cant find a good stat against him
* I dont like the fact he raced recently on the flat
* Very few do that and It undermines their chance

Shortlist

* MONTE CAVALLO has enough to shortlist
* Not many 7yo’s are as lightly raced though

* CANADIAN DIAMOND is 5 from a Novice Handicap
* The 2008 winner was similar from the same race
* CANADIAN DIAMOND has enough to shortlist

* IFANDBUTWHYNOT also comes from this race
* Lots to like in his profile and has to go well
* The only downside is he is shorter than ideal
* Because of that he’s a saver not a selection

Selection

70% of stake Win MONTE CAVALLO 10/1  victor chandler stan james ( who both offer best odds guarantee )

30% of stake Saver IFANDBUTWHYNOT 3/1  bet 365 Ladbrokes William Hill ( who all offer best odds guarantee )

 

Sandown Free Horse Racing Tip

Our regular Saturday free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician site.

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I do have a firm bet for full members today which runs in the 5.20 at Beverly

Member access in immediate if you join up at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

If the above is my gold bet for today on the free blog here I am providing my next best.

Sandown   2.00

For Latest Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-07-07/sandown-park/14-05/betting/

* This is a Group 3 over 5f for all aged horses
* Horss that came from handicaps underperformed
* Very few won and those that did were certain types
* ELUSIVITY isnt safe aged 4 from a handicap
* I also think he has the worst of the draw
* HUMIDOR comes from a handicap
* Not keen on him as an older horse absent 135 days
* MEDICEAN MAN comes from a 6f handicap
* No winners did that aged 6 or more
* No winners did that when exposed either
* TRIPLE ASPECT fails the same angles
* CALEDONIA LADY is a 3yo filly
* The 3 winning fillies aged 3 of similar races had 4 4 7 runs
* CALEDONIA LADY has 17 and may be too exposed
* DUCHESS DORA is an exposed mare from 5f
* The only similar winners had far more runs that season
* NIGHT CARNATION won this last year asa 3yo filly
* Now as a 4yo filly we have two winners like her
* Both however dropped from 6f races
* NIGHT CARNATION doesnt and isnt an exact match
* DINKUM DIAMOND looks underraced this year
* He looks short of class for a race like this
* CONFESSIONAL lost by 34 lengths just 7 days ago
* I cant find a winner overcoming such a defeat so recently
* ELNAWIN comes from 6f with 2 runs that season
* Both winners doing that were younger than him
* They both had under 13 runs as well
* ELNAWIN has 20 runs and may need another this season
* Or another race but Richard Hughes is bullish about him
* FREE ZONE is a 3yo with 13 runs
* He has never raced in Group Class before
* I looked at all 3 year olds without any Group form
* There were 3 winners aged 3 like that
* Those that had under 7 runs were 3-16
* Those that had 7 + runs were 0-20
* They were all lightly raced with 4-5-6 runs
* FREE ZONE has 13 and doesnt fit that well
* I’m saying after 13 runs he should have Group class form

S h o r t l i s t

* JUDGE 4N JURY is an 8yo
* None have won this race as old as he is
* I found 2 similar races won by 8yo’s elsewhere
* Because of that I cant rule him out
* I’d rather have seen an 8yo win this race though
* His recent run is a strong help
* So to is excellent track form as well

* SPIRIT QUARTZ is hard to read
* 9 of his 15 career starts were in Italy
* I have no problem with his general profile though
* He has shown the required Class
* SPIRIT QUARTZ is a big runner

Selection

JUDGE 4N JURY 7/1 Win Bet  BoyleSports – blue square – stan james
SPIRIT QUARTZ 5/1 Saver Bet   William Hill – stan james – BetfredBet365

( saver bet just a bet staked to win back stake on main bet if saver wins )

.

Scottish Grand National Racing Tip

Our regular free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician site is below

His full service has been on fire since Cheltenham.

To visit his site click here Betting Advice

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We have had a decent week for full members here.
Only two firm advised bets over the entire week.
We attacked the 12/1 Coral offered about RIFLESSIONE
with an each way bet and got the place pay off.
Then on Friday we improved on 2nd spot with 8/1 winner VALMINA

We do have another firm bet today that runs in the 6.05
So plenty of time to join up as a member proper
and pick that up in the member area.

As for todays Free Horse Racing Tip.
This is not a firm bet. More so extra analysis and info
from the message extra analysis section.

But it is the big race of the day and the most asked for preview
for the free betting blog.

The Scottish National

A y r 3.25

For live Scottish National Odds odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-21/ayr/15-25/betting/

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I have looked at the last 18 renewals of this race
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* It is Just not the best preparation for this race
* JUNIOR has that against him
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* JUNIOR looks underraced this season to me
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-19 record in this
* JUNIOR also fails this statistic
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-120
* No good coming here after a poor last run
* The following horses didnt do enough last time
* JUNIOR – ETXALAR
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18 4
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17 13
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 4 Chase starts.
* HARRY THE VIKING only has 3 Chase starts
* Thats one less than every 1st 2nd or 3rd
* HARRY THE VIKING doesnt come out that well
* HARRY THE VIKING is also a 7 year old
* We know 7 year olds dont win the Grand National
* In this race since 1992 they have a 1-55 record
* Horses aged 7 (1-55) look unsafe to me
* WALKON is 7 and may not get home
* PORTRAIT KING is 7 and lacks backclass
* He won the Eider last time and this is a second big test
* I see no evidence a 7 year old can do that
* OUR ISLAND – He isnt even 7 until next month
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-89
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* There was only 1 exposed winner aged 11 or more
* He had Graded form and 8 runs that season
* GARLETON – Not right as a 11 year old
* MERIGO – Has some flaws as an exposed 11yo
* The only winner like him had a more recent run
* He didnt win last time either and had more runs that year
* MERIGO – Credit for winning this in 2010 and 2nd last year
* ABBEYBRANEY – Wrong type of 11yo
* BALLYFITZ – HEEZ A STEEL dont offer enough aged 11 +
* 12 of the last 13 winners ran within 60 days
* ANY CURRENCY has been absent longer
* He looks underraced this year with that absence
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 3-89 record
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Graded form
* They all had 10st 4lbs or less as well
* KNOCKARA BEAU fails that
* FRUITY O4ROONEY fails that
* PETTIFOUR fails that
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* AURORAS ENCORE fails that statistic

* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* QUENTIN COLLONGES fails that
* OUR ISLAND also fails that
* QUENTIN COLLONGES only has 3 runs this year
* Some doing that have won but none aged 8
* No winners came from Hurdles
* PETTIFOUR – KING FONTAINE fails that
* GALAXY ROCK also come from hurdles
* Exposed horses won 6 of the last 18 renewals
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* AURORAS ENCORE – GARLETON fail that
* MAD AEDA doesnt look right
* The last 12 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out
* The following horses failed to achieve that
* PETTIFOUR – OUR ISLAND – ANY CURRENCY
* MOSTLY BOB – BE THERE IN FIVE
* GALAXY ROCK is not a negative
* Thats despite coming from hurdles. I can overlook that
* Decided not to shortlist him as an exposed 8yo
* Those that won all had more runs that season
* They all had more backclass and came from further too
* BE THERE IN FIVE also looks underraced this year aged 8

S h o r t l i s t

* MOSTLY BOB – Taking a chance on including him
* He had excused at Cheltenham and passes most stats
* Around 25/1 he could offer some value
* He was really progressive last year
* He has excuses in some races this year
* This track and ground could help him

* BENNY BE GOOD passes all the above trends
* He does have 11st 3lbs though which is a worry
* 8 of the last 10 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* I can overlook that given his price

* IKORODU ROAD sails through the above trends

Selection

Covering a few to small stakes with Ikorodu staked to
just return stakes on the other two if it wins

MOSTLY BOB 25/1 Win Bet ( a bit higher available on Betfair )
BENNY BE GOOD 25/1 Win Bet ( 36/1 Betfair )
IKORODU ROAD 12/1 Saver ( 16/1 Betfair )

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

Haydock Free Horse Racing Tip

In Yesterday’s main member message I didn’t suggest a stand out bet and decided to let the message stand or fall on the previews.
The mail had 10 previews and we came back with 5 winners
including a 16/1 winner and plenty of places as well.
It shows I am reading things well at the moment and have
the right level of confidence and momentum.

A ridiculous ammount of racing today. The main message for full members
has comments in 20 seperate races today so plenty to read.
Some are full detailed previews and others
just notes and little more.

Here on the free blog I am posting up one of the races covered.

Join the full service at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
and you can read the other races covered in our full member area.
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HAYDOCK 2.50

Bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)1m3f200y

9/2 Barshiba, 11/2 Polly´s Mark, 13/2 Grace O´malley
7/1 Les Fazzani,  8/1 Lady Jane Digby 9/1 Tinaar
10/1 Rosika, 14/1 Champagnelifestyle 25/1 Cassique Lady
25/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, 40/1 Najam.

* The Lancashire Oaks has 19 renewals since 1991
* This is a Group race over 11.5f for fillies
* The race may have changed since 2004
* Before then horses with 9 or more starts were 0-21
* Since 2004 we have had 3 winners with 9 or more runs
* I dont mind these horses as long as they match previous winners
*  NAJAM  won a 3yo maiden last time out like 4 past winners
* None however had 4 + runs like her
* None like her had 2 + runs that season
* NAJAM took 4 runs to win a maiden and thats not good enough
* TINAAR has just been beaten in a Hamilton Handicap
* None of the last 19 winners came from Handicaps
* TINAAR has never been in Listed or Group Class before
* Only 3 past winners could say that and all had under 4 runs
* TINAAR has 9 and may well lack the class
* No 4 year old won this with just 1 run this season
* The 2007 winner did officially but had 3 Hurdle races as well
* I think 1 run this year will leave a 4yo short
* ROSIKA fails that and has no form in Group class
* I dont fancy her winning this with just 1 run
* FLAME OF GIBRALTAR is rejected for similar reasons
* She is also a 4yo with 1 run this year
* She was well beaten last time as well
* There were only 2 winners aged 5 or more
* Both ran within a month and had 2-3 runs this season
* CLOWANCE is 5 and has just 1 run this season
* She also has a 77 day absence to overcome
* That would trouble me that no similar horse won
* Both winning horses aged 5 or more had Grade 1 form
* CASSIQUE LADY is 5 and does not have that
* They both came from higher class races than she does
* CASSIQUE LADY looks a grade below what is required
* BARSHIBA won this last year as a 5 year old
* She is now 6 and no past winner was that age
* Last year she was beaten 7 lengths at Ascot with 3 prep runs
* This year she was beaten 9 lengths at Ascot with 2 prep runs
* Not convinced that will be enough for her
* Only 2 past winners came From Royal Ascot
* Both had 3 + runs that season
* Thats my only concern alongside her age
* I am not shortlisting her because of that
* LADY JANE DIGBY doesnt interest me
* There were 5 winners that came from 10f or shorter
* They were all 3 year olds and lightly raced
* LADY JANE DIGBY is exposed and aged 5 doing that
* Because of that I feel she is the wrong type
* LES FAZZANI is 6 older than all past winners since 2001
* With 23 runs he is the joint most exposed runner
* You can argue all her turf wins came on soft ground
* If the ground was not fast I would respect her
* She is still older than any past winner though
* Because of that I dont want to select her

SHORTLIST

POLLYS MARK
GRACE O´MALLEY
CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE

* CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE is 3 and comes from the Oaks
* Horses doing that with 2 runs this season like here were 2-5
* They both had 3 career starts and she has 4 runs
* Thats the only thing different from her profile
* She was backed for this last Wednesday
* I think she has a reasonably good chance of a surprise
* POLLYS MARK is 4 and has had 13 career starts
* Horses aged 4 won 6 races but only 1 had 9 or more starts
* The record of 4 year olds with 9 + runs is 1-26 (Pongee 2004)
* However that 4yo winner (Pongee) had 2 runs that year like her
* She also came from the same race the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock
* That puts POLLYS MARK firmly in the picture
* She didnt win at Haydock unlike the 2004 winner
* She was beaten in a photo and thats good enough for me
* You would like the stable in better form though
* GRACE O´MALLEY is a Positive
* Hard to read and from Ireland but no obvious flaws
* In form and thriving now she is in foal

SELECTION

GRACE O´MALLEY 6/1 Each Way

If the 3 year old (Champagnelifestyle) pops up I wont
be surprised but I have 3 on the shortlist and can not go
with all of them. I am going with GRACE O´MALLEY
because she is in Foal and has already won recently when
in Foal and hopefully she can carry that forward to win.

GRACE O´MALLEY 7/1 Each Way

(Polly’s Mark an optional Saver)

NB 7/1 was available earlier when this was given to full members

now best priced 13/2 at VC stanjames Tote

Free Horse Racing Tip For Newmarket

Guy from Mathematician Betting is having a busy day today on his Full Service. He has three advised bets in total. Here we have just one of them.

It’s just a tiny snippet from a very comprehensive message his Full Members receive

Newmarket 5.05

COMPTON’S ELEVEN 6/1 Win Bet
VIOLENT VELOCITY 4/1 Saver

I thought hard about making COMPTONS ELEVEN an account bet with VIOLENT VELOCITY as a saver.
He’s such a typical account bet for me down in class and also conceeding weight to inferior horses.
On Paper he smells like a great bet but the danger is he could now be a sour 8 year old grey mule that has forgotten how to win.
There are other well treated runners as well and I just feel he is a
little short of a full bet especially with the rain about.
In terns of strength he is a very strong selection as I’m also saving on the second best handicapped horse in the race.
Both these horses are so well treated I will be shocked if one doesnt win.
They are both worth a decent bet but just fall short of a maximum.

COMPTONS ELEVEN 7/1 LadbrokesHills – S James -Skybet – Paddy Power

VIOLENT VELOCITY 11/2 Bet365
VIOLENT VELOCITY 5/1 LadbrokesHills

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NEWMARKET 5.05

AGORA APPRENTICE HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(4yo+ 0-70) 7f

4/1 Another Try, 5/1 King’s Icon, 13/2 Convince, 13/2 Pretty Officer, 8/1 Tri Chara, 10/1 Bigfanofthat, 10/1 Cavalry Guard, 10/1 Violent Velocity, 12/1 Compton’s Eleven, 14/1 King Of The Moors, 16/1 Rough Rock, 25/1 Majestic Cheer, 33/1 Ramblin Bob.

SELECTION -COMPTON´S ELEVEN

SAVER – VIOLENT VELOCITY

This is a 7f Handicap For Apprentice riders. June and July have seen 64 handicaps like this.
There has been 578 similar races for all types of jockeys and not just Apprentices. I used both trends.

* KINGS ICON has 1 run this year
* In 64 Apprentice races horses doing that were 0-42
* He also has a 65 day absence
* He looks potentially unfit for a semi exposed horse
* I looked at 578 similar 7f handicaps
* No horse as exposed as him won with 1 run and a break
* He is well handicapped and from a shrewd stable
* I would question his fitness though and he isnt for me
* RAMBLIN BOB lost by too far just 3 days ago
* TRI CHARA is hard to fancy
* He is exposed and comes from a 6f race
* No winners did that without a recent run and he’s been off 92 days
* He is also USA Bred and has all his best form on sand
* He may also struggle on the ground
* ROUGH ROCK will struggle to get home on the ground
* He also has the worst draw for me
* PRETTY OFFICER has spent her last races at 10f or more
* Its asking her a lot to drop from 10f to 7f
* No Filly did that in any of the 64 Apprentice races
* They scored very poorly in 578 other races
* There is far too much risk in her as a Filly not won before
* The ground could also hurt to PRETTY OFFICER is out
* MAJESTIC CHEER has to go from a 6f Seller
* CAVALRY GUARD was beaten too far in a 0-55 last time
* I dont see him as good enough
* Not without any form on the ground and winless on grass

POSSIBLES

* KING OF THE MOOR has reasonable claims
* He has a 39 day absence though
* Thats not easy for an exposed 6 year old
* He also has no recent form at 7f in years
* All his runs in the last two years were at 8f or more
* All his wins in the last two years were at 8f and more
* KING OF THE MOOR does have questions to answer
* ANOTHER TRY is inexperienced with 7 runs
* In 64 Apprentice Handicaps only 2 winners had under 9 runs
* I have found 1 similar winner to him
* Statistically I dont have a problem but there are issues
* His last win was when given a gift of a Draw
* I dont see his draw today as favourable at all
* He has to come from 6f to 7f and thats not straight forward
* He may also find the ground more testing than he faced before
* I respect him but he isnt for me
* BIGFANOFTHAT has a chance
* He still has to come up from 6f with just 1 run since April
* He certainly has a chance in this race
* CONVINCE is entitled to run well
* I dont have a major problem with him
* VIOLENT VELOCITY has a serious chance
* He is thrown in off his current mark
* The Absence doesnt worry me
* I have found several winners like him
* I rate him a good saver

COMPTON´S ELEVEN is very interesting. I remember making
him an account bet when he won the Grey Horse Handicap her
in 2007. Statistically he is fine. I think I have made a reasonable case against a lot of his rivals.
What interests me though is that he could have a Class advantage.
COMPTON´S ELEVEN is rated 69 and he has to win what is only a 0-64 handicap.
He has come down about 14lbs in the weights within the last year.
He has been running himself fitter and fitter all year as he comes down the
handicap and today is a Career low mark.

* His last run was 6th at Warwick beaten 7 lengths
* That was in a 0-83 Handicap much better than this race
* The Lowest rated horse he faced that day was 70
* The Highest rated horse he faces today is 64
* He was also badly drawn at Warwick in stall 11
* He was last into the turn and finished away from the track bias
* 6th place wasnt bad and the 4th and 5th came out and won since
* His previous race at Folkestone was in a better class 0-78 handicap
* His 4th that day doesnt suggest he couldnt win this 0-64
* He stays – He has won with ground on the soft side
* Most of his wins come on a straight track as well

SELECTION -COMPTON´S ELEVEN

SAVER – VIOLENT VELOCITY

Guy Ward

The Mathematician

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To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Advice

Free Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

NOTTINGHAM 1.50

BET ON TotePLACEPOT AT ToteSPORT.COM

HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 5f13y

11/4 Silver Prelude, 9/2 Molly Two, 12/1 Bluebok,

12/1 Ryedane, 12/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 14/1 Gwilym,

16/1 Lake Chini, 16/1 Ronnie Howe, 16/1 The History

Man, 20/1 Comptonspirit, King Of Swords, 25/1

Brandywell Boy, 33/1 Thoughtsofstardom.

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-70 horses

* Nottingham has 11 renewals of this race

* There has been 162 similar races elsewhere

* Taking the Nottingham race first

* Horses with under 21 career runs were 0-70

* Horses that came from 6f or more were 0-36

* None of the 11 winners were aged 8 or more

* Horses with under 9st scored badly (1-84)

* Horses absent over a month also struggled

Some of these trends have to be broken today and I think the horse that will do it is SILVER PRELUDE. I totally agree with the Racing Post that now he is back at 5f he can dominate the stands rain. SILVER PRELUDE may be better on the sand but he is also effective on turf. He is very well handicapped off 55. He has his lowest turf mark in years and if you look at the class of horse he was facing a few months ago it dwarfs these. His turf form isnt as good but it is still more than good enough to beat this 0-70 field. Dont forget he is just about bottomweight as well for this and all his 3 wins on Turf have been over 5f. I think he could blow these away on his best form. He comes from a Folkestone race where he made all the running for the first 5f. He came into that race with question marks. He had lost in every 6f race he had contested before. He was an 8yo absent over a month so could have been fitter. This front runner needs the drop down in trip and I cant see many of these catching him in this race. There are certainly some negatives about his opponents.

* There has been 162 of these 5f handicaps in May

* Fillies that had under 9 starts had a poor 2-71 record

* None of those had just 1 run that season (0-20)

* None of those were aged 4 or more (0-30)

* MOLLY TWO fails those trends

* Fillies aged 4 with under 13 runs won just 3 of the 162 races

* None had under 3 runs this season though

* MOLLY TWO has that to overcome

* All winning fillies had more backclass than her

* LAKE CHINI is out aged 7 with long absence

* KING OF SWORDS doesnt look ready to win

* THE HISTORY MAN has all his wins after July

* He should need more runs to get to peak fitness

* TYRANNOSAURUS REX is exposed with a 44 day break

* Exposed Male horses that had run this year struggled with absence

* Those like him absent over a month were 1-116

* All 42 aged 5 like TYRANNOSAURUS REX lost

* I think the absence beats TYRANNOSAURUS REX

* THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM is in the same boat

I think there are several that might win this if others

dissapoint. I quite like the mare COMPTONSPIRIT

as a big priced runner but the way this should map

out is that SILVER PRELUDE a fit and in form and

very well handicapped runner should make all and

run these into the ground. I will be surprised if any

horse manages to get to him and overtake him.

SHORTLIST

* COMPTONSPIRIT is value at 25/1

* She was 4th in this race last year

* I like her profile and she fits the “Nottingham” stats

* SILVER PRELUDE looks the one

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

Silver Prelude is 3/1 with Sportingbet and Betfair

Silver Prelude is 11/4 with Bet365Betfred – BSq

Silver Prelude is 5/2 with Tote – VC

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Advice