Sandown Horse Racing Tip

Our regular Saturday free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician Site is below

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A pleasing result last weekend with Bob’s Worth
winning the Hennessy Gold Cup for us.

For full members today I have a firm bet at good odds advised
in the 2.45 race.
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Full Service Christmas Sale is NOW On !

See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

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Here on the free blog I have popped up a race from slightly lower down the pecking order on my main message.

Sandown  2.30

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-12-08/sandown-park/14-30/betting/

* This is a 0-147 handicap hurdle over 2 Miles
* There has been 19 renewals of this race
* There has been 58 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 58 Handicaps at 2m in Class 2-Listed-Grade 3
* Past winners had 4 5 4 9 26 7 5 6 11 7 Hurdle runs
* There is only one past winner with more than 11 runs
* That race (2006) was a falsely run race in a crawl
* Clearly horses with 4-11 hurdle races are best
* The past winners had the following days absence
* 21 28 21 6 6 28 15 9 27 13
* Past winners had these number of runs that season
* 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 4
* A recent run is important in this race
* You want a lightly raced hurdler with a recent run
* You also want a younger horse as well
* Horses aged 8 or more have a miserable 1-67 record
* PETIT ROBIN is a 9yo and I feel too risky
* He has Topweight and that bothers me as well
* Lightweights have a much better record
* Only 1 winner had more than 11st 5lbs
* That was in 2009 a poor renewal with a false pace
* STARLUCK has too much weight for 15 hurdle runs
* You want an in form horse as well
* 16 of 19 past winners of this were 1-2-3-4-5 last time
* Only one was beaten more than 12 lengths last time
* That came in a Graded race as welll
* RAJAMAND is out as a seasonal debutant
* HELIUM is too exposed
* ROWAN TIGER – I wanted a better last run
* SOFTSONG – Not keen as a 4yo from a novice hurdle
* Especially beaten last time out and so lightly raced
* I think there are better options
* DOLATULO – Didnt think he had proven enough
* SWAMPFIRE is 4 and from a Novice Handicap
* There was 1 winner aged 4 doing that
* That horse had Grade 1 form and he doesnt
* SWAMPFIRE is therefore unsafe but respected
* INTO WAIN – I cant find a good stat against him
* I dont like the fact he raced recently on the flat
* Very few do that and It undermines their chance

Shortlist

* MONTE CAVALLO has enough to shortlist
* Not many 7yo’s are as lightly raced though

* CANADIAN DIAMOND is 5 from a Novice Handicap
* The 2008 winner was similar from the same race
* CANADIAN DIAMOND has enough to shortlist

* IFANDBUTWHYNOT also comes from this race
* Lots to like in his profile and has to go well
* The only downside is he is shorter than ideal
* Because of that he’s a saver not a selection

Selection

70% of stake Win MONTE CAVALLO 10/1  victor chandler stan james ( who both offer best odds guarantee )

30% of stake Saver IFANDBUTWHYNOT 3/1  bet 365 Ladbrokes William Hill ( who all offer best odds guarantee )

 

Aintree Horse Betting Advice

A free horse betting tip for Aintree this week from Guy over at the mathematician betting website.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

 

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Looks another classy Saturday and fascinating racing again and I have covered
something from every track this afternoon for the full member message.
The flat is closing down now and much of this is rubbish but there are
still some really intersting races. The National Hunt cards are getting better all the time.
It’s as least as good as the flat today and they
contribute a lot to the 16 Saturday previews but the problem yet again is the
best racing is saved for Saturday and there is simply not enough time to do it all justice.

I am having one full bet for full members today in the 2.30 at Doncaster.
Here on the free blog I am posting up one from slightly further down the full member message.
It almost made full bet status but not quite.

Aintree   1.50

For latest live odss see here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-10-27/aintree/13-50/betting/

Not ready yet for big field Aintree Handicap Hurdles.
I did notice from 7 past renewals that horses that came from Novice races were 0-16
so I would raise a question mark about favourite CAPE EXPRESS as well as KARTANIAN as well.
I want to oppose these. There are several that have acceptable profiles.
AGENT ARCHIE and NAMPOUR look threatsbut I was drawn to EMPIRE LEVANT first time out.
He had no chance at last years festival over 2m 5f as he doesnt stay.
He wants to race over 18f or less on good ground and on a flat track
and these are his conditions and I think he is a far better bet than the favourite here.

Selection

EMPIRE LEVANT 4/1 ( best odds guaranteed )  at stan james

 

 

Sandown Free Horse Racing Tip

Our regular Saturday free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician site.

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I do have a firm bet for full members today which runs in the 5.20 at Beverly

Member access in immediate if you join up at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

If the above is my gold bet for today on the free blog here I am providing my next best.

Sandown   2.00

For Latest Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-07-07/sandown-park/14-05/betting/

* This is a Group 3 over 5f for all aged horses
* Horss that came from handicaps underperformed
* Very few won and those that did were certain types
* ELUSIVITY isnt safe aged 4 from a handicap
* I also think he has the worst of the draw
* HUMIDOR comes from a handicap
* Not keen on him as an older horse absent 135 days
* MEDICEAN MAN comes from a 6f handicap
* No winners did that aged 6 or more
* No winners did that when exposed either
* TRIPLE ASPECT fails the same angles
* CALEDONIA LADY is a 3yo filly
* The 3 winning fillies aged 3 of similar races had 4 4 7 runs
* CALEDONIA LADY has 17 and may be too exposed
* DUCHESS DORA is an exposed mare from 5f
* The only similar winners had far more runs that season
* NIGHT CARNATION won this last year asa 3yo filly
* Now as a 4yo filly we have two winners like her
* Both however dropped from 6f races
* NIGHT CARNATION doesnt and isnt an exact match
* DINKUM DIAMOND looks underraced this year
* He looks short of class for a race like this
* CONFESSIONAL lost by 34 lengths just 7 days ago
* I cant find a winner overcoming such a defeat so recently
* ELNAWIN comes from 6f with 2 runs that season
* Both winners doing that were younger than him
* They both had under 13 runs as well
* ELNAWIN has 20 runs and may need another this season
* Or another race but Richard Hughes is bullish about him
* FREE ZONE is a 3yo with 13 runs
* He has never raced in Group Class before
* I looked at all 3 year olds without any Group form
* There were 3 winners aged 3 like that
* Those that had under 7 runs were 3-16
* Those that had 7 + runs were 0-20
* They were all lightly raced with 4-5-6 runs
* FREE ZONE has 13 and doesnt fit that well
* I’m saying after 13 runs he should have Group class form

S h o r t l i s t

* JUDGE 4N JURY is an 8yo
* None have won this race as old as he is
* I found 2 similar races won by 8yo’s elsewhere
* Because of that I cant rule him out
* I’d rather have seen an 8yo win this race though
* His recent run is a strong help
* So to is excellent track form as well

* SPIRIT QUARTZ is hard to read
* 9 of his 15 career starts were in Italy
* I have no problem with his general profile though
* He has shown the required Class
* SPIRIT QUARTZ is a big runner

Selection

JUDGE 4N JURY 7/1 Win Bet  BoyleSports – blue square – stan james
SPIRIT QUARTZ 5/1 Saver Bet   William Hill – stan james – BetfredBet365

( saver bet just a bet staked to win back stake on main bet if saver wins )

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Racing Post Chase Tip

One of the major races today is The Racing Post Chase over at Kempton.

Race analyst Guy Ward provides his thoughts on the race below.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Betting

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Thanks for those of you who emailed to say thanks for a bit of extra winnings last week.  Not the full cigar but 9/1 each way returned a bit of profit.

I had a couple of requests to have a look at the Racing Post Chase this week on the free blog.

It’s one of the extra races I looked at for full members so here are my quick thoughts on it.

KEMPTON 3.00

Racing Post Chase Handicap Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

5/1 Fistral Beach, 5/1 Nacarat, 6/1 Quinz, 8/1 Bakbenscher
9/1 Mostly Bob, 10/1 Sagalyrique, 12/1 Hey Big Spender
12/1 Tatenen, 14/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Polyfast
20/1 Crescent Island, 20/1 Door Boy, 20/1 Ringaroses
25/1 Piraya, 33/1 Safari Adventures, 40/1 Free World
40/1 Mount Oscar.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 16 renewals of this race.
* Febuary and March have seen 136 Handicap Chases
* Thats 136 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher
* FISTRAL BEACH doesnt offer enough for me
* Not keen he has just 1 run this season
* No past winner of this race had 1 run that season
* In 136 of these races I looked at those with 1 run this year
* When coming from 22f or shorter there were 3 winners
* Those with 7 or more career starts were just 1-35
* That winner had less weight and a more recent run
* CRESCENT ISLAND has the same problems to overcome
* RINGAROSES is wrong with 1 run this season
* None of the 136 winners came from 18f or shorter
* All 32 lost and FREE WORLD fails that
* QUINZ comes from a Novice Chase
* No winner of this race came from an ordinary Novice Chase
* Horses doing that in 136 other races had a 3-59 record
* None were aged 7 like QUINZ (0-14)
* None had as much weight as he does either
* Horses beaten in a Novice Chase last time were 0-24
* QUINZ also fails that and doesnt come out well enough
* MOUNT OSCAR is out up in trip aged 12
* SAFARI ADVENTURES is exposed and up in trip
* He lacks the backclass to overcome that
* PIRAYA is exposed up in trip with 1-2-3 runs this season
* Similar horses had a 1-51 record
* That winner had more backclass than PIRAYA
* He also flopped in last years race and wants a small field
* RAZOR ROYALE won this race last year
* This year he has a much inferior preparation
* He is exposed this year and has far fewer prep runs
* He also has a nasty absence which doesnt help him
* I dont see him bouncing back to form with his profile
* MOSTLY BOB comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* He only has 9 career National Hunt Starts
* Horses from Novice Handicaps with under 13 runs are 0-14
* MOSTLY BOB fails that and looks wrong to me
* I looked at all 8 year olds from Novice Handicap Chases
* I found only 1 winner and he had far more backclass
* MOSTLY BOB only has 3 career Chase starts
* Thats very inexperienced and he fell in one of those chases
* The 16 winners of this race had the following Chase starts
* 9 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13
* The lightest raced chaser to win this Gloria Victus (2000)
* He had 5 runs which is far more experienced than he is
* MOSTLY BOB doesnt look right with 3 runs from handicaps
* DOOR BOY doesnt appeal much to me
* Well beaten on all  starts this year
* I couldnt find a winner like him in the 136 races
* His lack of form this year makes him vulnerable
* POLYFAST is 8 and won a Handicap Chase last time
* That was over 2m 5f and there are 4 similar winners
* They all had a more recent run than him
* They all had more backclass as well
* POLYFAST hasnt been out of Listed Class yet
* 3 or the 4 similar winners had Grade 1 form before
* They all came from higher in the weights as well
* His form over this far raises stamina doubts too
* Statistically he doesnt make the grade for me
* SAGALYRIQUE is 7 and comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* I found 1 similar winner doing that
* He did have a bit more backclass than he does
* The issue with SAGALYRIQUE is if he has the class
* My best guess is that he wont
* The overnight rain wont have helped him either
* With Blinkers and a Tongue Strap he doesnt feel like the one

POSSIBLES

NACARAT – BAKBENSCHER
HEY BIG SPENDER – TATENEN

* NACARAT doesnt have a major statistical problem
* The 2004 winner (Malborough) had a very similar profile
* His stable is out of form though
* HEY BIG SPENDER is 8 and won a 21f handicap last time
* I found 3 similar winners with that profile
* They all had Grade 1 form and a high weight and recent run
* HEY BIG SPENDER also fits that profile
* The 2001 and 1999 winners of this race had that profile
*  HEY BIG SPENDER has a good profile for me
* One doubt is whether he can recover from his last race
* Only 14 days ago it would be a small concern
* No horse won this from 2m 5f in the past fortnight
* The other is whether a right handed flat track suits
* All his best form came away from tighter tracks
* It was tight at Warwick last time but not right handed
* TATENEN is 7 and won a 22f handicap last time
* I found 1 similar winner in the 136 races
* TATENEN has to prove he stays 3 Miles today
* His 4 runs at 3m and more have been bad defeats
* He was not fancied in 3 of those 4 runs
* Wrong to assume he doesnt stay based on that record
* His trainer is on record as being unsure if he stays 3m
* Shortlistable on his profile his biggest issue is stamina
* BAKBENSCHER is hard to read from a Graduation Chase
* Plenty to like about his profile
* Not least a good recent win and strong form right handed
* Statistically he is hard to assess because of his last run
* The Positives far outweight the doubts for me

SELECTION

All 4 have at least one concern as mentioned above. I see
TATENEN placing but perhaps not staying well enough to
win. NACARAT is respected and looks saver material with
topweight. The last four winners were 8 year olds and that
and a recent run steers me towards  BAKBENSCHER

BAKBENSCHER Win Bet     9/1  at Bet365 and VC

( Nacarat – Optional Saver)

Ayr Gold Cup Tip

AYR GOLD CUP TIP

This comes from Guy aka The Mathematician

To Visit Guys site click here ==> Horse Betting Advice

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I nailed my colours to Johnny Mudball’s mast in Fridays full member message.
Quite surprised Pricewise have tipped him too today.
I’m not sure there is any value in the price now
but full members would have backed him at 11/1 and 12/1 on Friday.

Arguably with pricewise coming in today and smashing the price down a touch
I should have picked a different race for you today here on the free blog.

I did get a few emails seeking thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup however
so thought it would be the most popular race to cover here today for you.

Find Current Best Odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-18/ayr/15-20/betting/

Personally looking at the stats for these races
I think IRISH HEARTBEAT has a better profile than
anything in either race and I am slightly more hopeful
that he will win the Silver Cup at 2.15pm. I plan a bit
on him around 9/1 or 10/1 but low stakes in this race.

This is my friday message on the Ayr Gold Cup

AYR 3.20

William Hill (Ayr) Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

11/2 Poet’s Place, 7/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 8/1 Victoire De Lyphar 10/1 Genki, 12/1 Jonny Mudball, Redford, 14/1 Evens And Odds 16/1 Tajneed, 16/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, 16/1 Hitchens 20/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 20/1 Jimmy Styles, 20/1 Knot In Wood 20/1 Signor Peltro, 20/1 Noverre To Go, 25/1 Damien 25/1 Parisian Pyramid, 25/1 Striking Spirit, 25/1 Partner 25/1 Prime Exhibit, Barney McGrew, 33/1 Castles In The Air 33/1 Quest For Success, 33/1 Flipando, 33/1 Damika
33/1 Arganil, 33/1 Johannes

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1992
* I have used the 18 renewals of this race
* I have used 156 similar Class 2 handicaps
* These 156 races came between August and October

THE DRAW

Most are saying High. It is the safest choice. Nobody has any clue.
They were saying “High” last year yet the low numbers had it in the 3 Gold Silver and Bronze Cup races.
Even if there is a bias some belive the pace of the race matters more.
I dont have a strong view. My research is based on Handicaps only at
Ayr at this trip and I looked at every Handicap here since 2003 with 15 or more runners.
What that tells me is Stall 1 has a poor record. It also tells me horses drawn 23 or higher are 1-85 and I
would be very wary about the very high draws. Overall though I intend to ignore the draw at this stage and see what looks best.

NEGATIVES

* VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR is a Negative for me
* He is 3 and has just 3 runs this year and a 50 day break
* There were 2 winners aged 3 in this race
* They both had twice as many runs this year as he does
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3 runs that season were 1-82
* Those with 5 + runs had a 0-69 record and he has 9 runs
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3 runs that season were 3-153
* Those absent a month with 5 + career runs were 0-50
* They say he is a Group horse. He will need to be
* Drawn 24 may not be the help some think it is
* VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR doesnt come out well enough
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Horses aged 8 or more struggle in these races
* They won 7 races in a 7-275 record
* None were absent more than a month
* KNOT IN WOOD fails that
* Those aged 8 or more with under 8 runs that year are 1-104
* KNOT IN WOOD fails that as well
* FLIPANDO is too old aged 9 to be dropping from 7f
* BARNEY MCGREW is all wrong aged 7 from a Group 1 race
* TAJNEED is 7 and has not run in 2 weeks
* Horses with that profile were 6-255
* Those with under 8 runs that season were 0-120
* TAJNEED only just fails that with 7 runs but he fails it
* Those without Group Class form were 0-86
* TAJNEED also lacks Group class form as well
* Horses aged 7 winning 2+ weeks ago were 0-18
* TAJNEED has an unsatisfactory profile
* He is a Ripon specialist and has a career high mark
* Since 1986 horses aged 7 or more are 1-100 in this race
* DAMIKA is 7 and has to come from a 7f race
* There were 2 winners in 156 races doing that
* Those beaten more than 4 + lengths last time were 0-45
* He has a career high mark and this may be too much for him
* JOHANNES is underraced for a 7 year old
* Drawn one I will be shocked if he wins this
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Exposed horses absent over a month have a weak 5-297 record
* In this race these horses have a 0-60 record
* Those without Group class form were just 1-125
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails this and looks weak
* EVENS AND ODDS is exposed and absent a month
* Horses in this race with that profile were 0-60
* In 156 similar races they were 5-297 but none like him
* Those that placed 1-2-3 last time out were 0-69
* JIMMY STYLES is exposed absent over a month
* It worries me he has just 4 runs this season
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH is exposed and absent over a month
* No 4 year olds were exposed and absent as long as that
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH looks unsafe to me
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses from Group races had a 2-60 record
* None were aged 6 or more like GENKI
* Exposed horses trying this were 1-38
* None were as lightly raced this season as he is
* He is trying to do what Advanced did in 2007
* Thats to come from the Haydock Group 1 sprint
* Advanced was an unexposed 4 year old though
* I cant match GENKI to any of the 156 winners
* He has a tough weight of 9st 8lbs to overcome
* Horses in this race with 9st 7lbs or more struggled
* Those with 13 + runs and that weight were 0-58
* GENKI doesnt appeal much to me
* CASTLES IN THE AIR is exposed and from a 7f Listed race
* He looks unsafe and I cant find a winner like him
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* He has no Group form and comes from a 6f handicap
* Horses doing that within 2 weeks had a 1-85 record
* That winner ran much better than he did last time
* He also had much less weight and more runs this year
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS doesnt come out like any winners
* STRIKING SPIRIT has exactly the same profile
* I see him as weak as well
* HAWKEYETHENOO has been absent 56 days
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses absent 7 weeks or more like him were 11-265
* Those that were exposed were 1-110
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that as he is exposed
* The only winner managing it was older
* He had more backclass as well
* In 156 races last time winners with 13 + runs won 58 races
* None were absent 7 weeks or more like him (0-32)
* Those absent over a Month were only 1-104
* That winner was an unexposed 4 year old
* HAWKEYETHENOO doesnt look right to me
* PARISIAN PYRAMID is an exposed 4yo
* He has no form higher than Class 2 and hasnt run in 2 weeks
* In 156 races horses with that profile were 2-74
* Those like him beaten last time were 0-64
* I cant match him to any of the 156 winners
* PARTNER is difficult to read coming from Ireland
* He is an unexposed 4yo absent over a month
* There were 3 winners like that in 156 races
* Those beaten 4 + lengths with that profile were 0-34
*  PARTNER hasnt really shown enough to consider
* HITCHENS is an exposed 5 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time out
* Horses with that profile had a 0-26 record
* Exposed 5 year olds that were 1-2-3 last time were 6-157
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 1-77
* Those with under 7 runs that season were 0-41
* HITCHENS only has 5 runs and is poor
* DAMIEN is an unexposed 4yo from a 7f handicap
* 2 of the 156 winners had that profile
* Neither of them won this race
* Neither had form in Group class before like him
* I didnt see enough I liked about him

POSSIBLES

* SIGNOR PELTRO is a 7yo
* Since 1986 horses aged 7 or more are 1-100 in this race
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses aged 7 or more from 6f handicaps in a month won races
* Those with No form in Group Class races were 6-141
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 1-62
* SIGNOR PELTRO just lacks enough runs this year
* He has a career high mark of 100 as well
* I dont think he will win but I feel he is a Possible
* ARGANIL looks shortlistable at a huge price
* He is hard to fancy admittedy
* He was only beaten 4.5 lengths in this race last year
* This year he has a better preparation and a lower mark
* ARANGIL is very similar to the 33/1 winner in 2004
* He came from well beaten in the Portland
* He also had Group form and was the same age
* ARANGIL has to be shortlisted at a big price
* His biggest problem may be his draw in stall 2
* PRIME EXHIBIT has a complicated profile
* I found 2 winners of similar races but none of this race
* 5 year olds with 13-20 runs and an absence of 7 + weeks
* I cant make him a negative so I’d shortlisting him
* REDFORD comes from an 8f race
* In 156 of these races there were 3 winners doing that
* 2 of them came in this race as well
* However they were all unexposed
* Exposed horses like REDFORD from 8f races were 0-40
* The horses from 8f races in this race were aged 3 and 4
* REDFORD is 5 and I cant match him to a winner
* With 1 run less I could so I would respect him
* POET´S PLACE is very hard to assess
* Being 5 with only 7 career starts makes him tricky to read
* Horses with that profile won 3 races
* Those with No Group class form had a 1-1 record
* That winner had less weight and a long absence
* He didnt win last time either
* 2 Portland winners have won this race
* They were both younger though confusing things more
* Overall I would play on the safe side and shortlist him
* NOVERRE TO GO comes from the Stewards Cup
* There were 2 winners of this race doing that
* Both were unexposed 4 year olds like him
* They had 10 and 11 runs and he has 16 runs
* Thats close enough for me
* Unexposed 4 year olds won this race 6 times
* 2 of the last 3 winners were unexposed 4 year olds
* With fast ground NOVERRE TO GO could go close

STRONG PROFILE

JONNY MUDBALL

* JONNY MUDBALL has a very smart profile
* JONNY MUDBALL is 4 and absent 49 days
* 4 year olds absent over a Month won 9 races
* Those with 7-12 runs like him won 5 races
* Those with Class 2 form made that a 5-14 record
* Extract those that were not beaten 4 + lengths last time
* Those that came from a 6f handicap had a 4-5 record
* Those that started under 33/1 had a 4-4 record
* Horses with his profile had a 4-4 record
* The 1996 and 2001 winners of this race had this profile
* They both came from the Stewards cup like him
* He is very similar to 1996 winner Coastal Bluff

Find Current Best Odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-18/ayr/15-20/betting/

Horse Betting This Saturday

Mathematician Betting  have recently introduced a few changes to their full member service messages.

I thought that this Saturday instead of just pulling out one small section of the message for the free blog we would give you the whole thing.

You can see the clear cut advised bet at the top under the Daily Recommendations Section.

Also there are extra races assessed with a lot of stats and info aimed at providing a bit of extra help to those who like to make their own final horse betting or horse laying  decissions.

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Mathematician 753

Daily Recommendation

Stratford 2.20

RUSSIAN GEORGE 5/2

Win Bet

11/4 Stan James – BoyleSports- Bet365 – Blue Square
5/2  VC – Betfred -Sky
Some firms have not yet priced up.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS

I hope a few of you are on the same double as me today after Kinigi won yesterday. Those that had that bet will now be on RED CADEAUX and KANSAI SPIRIT at prices between 25/1 and 33/1 depending on what odds you got. Win lose or draw it is a great position to be in so all we need now is some luck.

It is a strange Saturday. There are 5 meetings and 3 of these look rough. I can’t see much at Kempton and rarely commit to anything there. It’s dissapointing that on an 8 race card at THIRSK I can’t find more than 2 races to preview. That said I have problems at this track and it usually gets the better of me and little point in trying to tackle races there that look  too difficult so I’ve settled on the two races. STRATFORD’s thrown up one decent race I like.WOLVERHAMPTON has nothing aside from a negative so HAYDOCK provides most of the previews today and overall there are just 7 of them.

I’m Leaving Thirsk alone today. I thought about having a
bit on Select Commitee in the 4.40pm but deep down I am
sceptical I have enough negatives in the race. I’m locked in with yesterdays double in the 3.05pm so I am letting both those doubles run and laying both back in running at Evens. I wouldnt put anyone off an interest bet in the Group 1 race at Haydock 3.35pm and Kinsgate Native each way but thats all it would be for me and I am not that bothered about the  race. Like many races today it’s a bitting and bobbing day.

The stand out bet for me has always been at Stratford in a
Novice Hurdle at 2.20pm. Its the first race in the message
so we will know our fate early. RUSSIAN GEORGE has to
be my main bet today. I have a favourite who has a poor
profile that I want to take on. RUSSIAN GEORGE is like
24 horses running in similar races and these 24 finished as
follows – 1 2 1 5 1 3 1 2 F 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 5 1 2 F 1 so given that he isnt even favourite he has to be the best bet.

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REVIEW OF LAST MESSAGE

No selection yesterday but KINIGI the only horse I had
in the message won. I hope most people either backed
him or had the same doubles as me. Some did both and I
wish I had now. Nothing official though so a blank day
but on a 1 race day it was nice to have 1 winner on it.

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T O D A Y ‘S  R A C I N G

STRATFORD 2.20

Lafarge GTEC Plasterboard Solutions
Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+) 2m110y

11/4 Tout Regulier, 7/2 Russian George, 7/2 Unleashed
4/1 Saltagioo, 12/1 Addwaitya, 12/1 That´s Some Milan
16/1 Chadwell Spring, 20/1 Celtic Dragon 20/1 Hector Spectre 100/1 High Dee Jay.

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* I looked at 529 similar races at this time of year
* Thats 529 Novice Hurdles at 16f and 17f July-September
* RUSSIAN GEORGE has the best profile
* TOUT REGULIER may be worth opposing
* TOUT REGULIER pulled up in a handicap 13 days ago
* Thats hardly the greatest preparation but it’s more than that
* Horses that came from Handicap Hurdles won 48 races
* Those that came from 2m 5f or more were 0-22 though
* That makes TOUT REGULIER unsafe
* TOUT REGULIER is also a Mare
* Female horses like her coming from 2m 5f or more were 4-89
* Those with 7 or more career starts were 0-26 and she has 14
* Mares aged 6 or more from 2m 5f or more had a 0-52 record
* TOUT REGULIER fails both those angles
* At the very least she has to be unsafe back in distance
* UNLEASHED pulled up in a Maiden hurdle last time
* Horses doing that in the last 3 months were 1-80
* He may pop in but his last run makes him look weak
* SALTAGIOO has plenty to prove after a poor last run
* RUSSIAN GEORGE should be favourite here
* He isnt as others are rated higher in the race
* Thats a worry but it ensures a better price
* RUSSIAN GEORGE has this profile
* Horses aged 4 winning a Novice Hurdle last time
* Running within a Month
* No form in Class 2 or higher before
* Having between 3-6 runs
* There were 24 horses with that profile and 13 won
* The 24 finished in these positions
* 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 F F
* That looks a serious record
* It’s why RUSSIAN GEORGE has to be the selection

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HAYDOCK 2.30

Betfred “The Bonus King” Be Friendly Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 5f

6/1 Golden Destiny, 9/1 Anglezarke, 10/1 Courageous
10/1 Strike Up The Band, 12/1 Archers Road, 12/1 Favourite Girl 12/1 Haajes, Medici Time, Pavershooz, 12/1 Secret Millionaire 14/1 Cheveton, 14/1 Confessional, 14/1 Lucky Numbers 14/1 Reignier, Desert Phantom, 20/1 Piscean, 25/1 Solemn.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* There has been 57 similar races at this time of year
* GOLDEN DESTINY is a 4yo filly
* Fillies aged 4 have a 0-43 record in the 57 races
* Fillies only won 6 of the 57 races
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 2-66
* Those like GOLDEN DESTINY from handicaps were 0-35
* None carried her weight either
* GOLDEN DESTINY is not right statistically
* ANGLEZARKE is a 4yo filly
* We know Fillies aged 4 are 0-43 in these races
* Fillies with 9 or more career starts were 3-118
* Those without at least 9 runs that year are 1-71
* That winner came from a Group race
* ANGLEZARKE lacks relevant handicap form as well
* FAVOURITE GIRL is a 4yo filly
* We know Fillies aged 4 are 0-43 in these races
* All fillies like her from 6f races were 0-43
* On a career high mark  FAVOURITE GIRL looks weak
* ARCHERS ROAD is 3 and has 19 career starts
* Horses aged 3 with 13 or more runs were 3-62
* None had under 6 runs that season
* ARCHERS ROAD has only 3 runs
* None of them were absent as long as he is
* ARCHERS ROAD has plenty to prove for a 3yo

* Horses absent 7 + weeks have a 2-65 record
* Those aged 4 or more with that absence were 0-38
* DESERT PHANTOM fails that
* No 4yo like DESERT PHANTOM won absent a month
* None of the 57 winners came from 7f or further
* LUCKY NUMBERS is hard to fancy coming from 8f
* Not with a career high mark and no wins above Class 4
* SOLEMN is exposed and lost by 10 + lengths last time
* Only 1 of the 57 winners did that
* That horse had Group 2 class form and didnt run recently
* SOLEMN lacks that and looks weak on a career high mark
* He has never won out of a Class 4 race yet
* MEDICI TIME is an exposed 5yo from a 5f race
* He has no pattern class form before
* Horses with that profile were 3-40
* All 3 winners had more runs that season than he has
* MEDICI TIME is also on a tough handicap mark
* He is 8lbs higher than his best previous winning rating
* He is unplaced in his 5 races beyond a Class 4 race
* He will need a career best to win this
* CONFESSIONAL is from a 3yo handicap with 16 runs
* Horses from 3yo handicaps with 9 + runs were 2-45
* Both winners had Group Class form before
* CONFESSIONAL lacks that
* Both winners came from Class 3 handicaps
* Those like CONFESSIONAL from Class 2 races were 0-18
* CONFESSIONAL is not close enough to any winners
* HAAJES is an exposed 6 year old from a 5f race
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race
* Horses like that without a run in 7 days were 1-30
* Its no more than an average profile
* HAAJES has ran in 12 Class 2 races and unplaced 12 times
* On a Career high mark there are some worries there

POSSIBLES

* PISCEAN is an exposed 5yo from a 5f race
* He has listed class form but no Group class form
* There were 5 winners with that profile
* Males like him beaten 6 + lengths last time were 1-12
* That winner had an absence but he isnt too far away
* PISCEAN will probably find something to beat him
* Statistically there are worse profiles and he looks a possible
* It worries me he is 0-19 in fields of 13 or more though
* REIGNIER is 3 and has been absent 63 days
* There were 2 winners aged 3 absent over a Month
* These had slightly fewer runs but he has 9 and thats ok
* Both winners had 3 runs that season as he does
* Neither came from a Group race as he did last time
* Neither were beaten as far as he was last time
* COURAGEOUS is 4 and absent a month
* We know no 4 year old won with that absence
* He only just fails it though and I’d overlook that
* He does have his first run for Dandy Nicholls today
* There would be a slight added risk because of that

SELECTION

* STRIKE UP THE BAND may be ready to win again
* He was 3rd in this race last year
* Last year he faced a difficult 51 day absence
* This year he ran just 5 days ago
* Last year he ran off a rating of 100
* This year he runs only off 87
* STRIKE UP THE BAND carries 8lbs less weight as well
* STRIKE UP THE BAND has a great chance in my view

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THIRSK 2.55

Hambleton Cup Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

5/2 Green Lightning, 7/2 George Adamson, 9/2 Lady Luachmhar
13/2 Ethics Girl, 8/1 Brouhaha, 8/1 River Ardeche
10/1 Snow Dancer, 12/1 Kames Park.

This is a 12f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. There are 391
similar races at this time of year. I think its worth looking for an alternative each way to GREEN LIGHTNING. There are 4 options for me. None have outstanding profiles but it’s probably worth trying to find one to beat him. The problem I have with GREEN LIGHTNING is his 2f drop in distance.

* Horses from 3yo Handicaps over 14f struggled
* Those with 4 or more career starts were 2-48
* Those with under 6 runs that season were 0-26
* GREEN LIGHTNING only has 4 starts
* Those beaten more than 10 lengths last time were 0-28
* GREEN LIGHTNING also fails that

I just think GREEN LIGHTNING falls a bit short of what is
required. I didnt like BROUHAHA as I could not match him
with an absence and a poor last run. ETHICS GIRL may just
want more runs and KAMES PARK didnt achieve enough on
his last run. I think there are 4 possible choices in this race. I felt GEORGE ADAMSON lacked a bit of backclass leaving him a litle unsafe. LADY LUACHMHAR is a 4yo filly down from a 2m race. I found 2 similar winners but neither had less than 13 career starts and she has 9 runs so again she is a little unsafe. RIVER ARDECHE is shortlistable but I’d have liked a bit better last run. SNOW DANCER is also worth considering. I felt one of these 4 each way was the sensible bet and given the choice I just prefered RIVER ARDECHE each way at 16/1.

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HAYDOCK 3.05

Betfred Kingspin Old Borough Cup (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m6f

5/1 Kansai Spirit, 13/2 Lady Eclair, 13/2 Red Cadeaux
12/1 Chilly Filly, 12/1 Recession Proof, 14/1 Ajaan
14/1 Braveheart Move, Rangefinder, 14/1 Woolfall Treasure
16/1 Becausewecan, 16/1 Cotillion, 20/1 Crackentorp
20/1 Moon Indigo, 20/1 Perfect Shot, 20/1 Porgy
33/1 Shipmaster, 40/1 Macarthur.

* The Old Borough Cup is a 14f Handicsap
* There are 10 renewals of this race
* It has been upgraded in status over the years
* I’m looking at the 10 past renewals
* I’m also looking at 35 similar Class 2 races elsewhere
* Looking at the angles in this race they are as follows
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs had a 0-55 record
* Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season were 0-29
* Horses aged 6 or more were 0-36
* Every past winner ran within 7 weeks
* Every past winner finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time (0-64)
* No winner lost by 6 or more lengths last time (0-69)
* Every past winner was a Male horse
* No past winners dropped from 2 Miles or more (0-40)
* No winners came from 11f or shorter
* This leaves a shortlist of 2 runners
* RED CADEAUX – KANSAI SPIRIT

There are 35 similar races at this time of year. None of them were as old as SHIPMASTER or absent as long. There were 4 winners aged 6 or more. They all had at least 4 runs that year and AJAAN looks weak with just 2 runs this year. All horses his age that won also had much less weight. RANGEFINDER  is also a 6 year old. He only won a Class 4 handicap last time  and no winner his age won any handicap last time over 14f or 16f and I see him unsafe on a career high mark coming from  a 0-80 race to a 0-100 contest. We know exposed horses are 0-57 record in this race. In 35 similar races they had a 4-153 record. Those from 12f or shorter were 0-59 and it puts me off MACARTHUR who was also beaten too far last time. I’m worried about BECAUSEWECAN as he is a 4yo and exposed  and in all similar races these types are 0-20. The few exposed
horses that won these races all had light seasons. Those with 7 or more runs that year were 0-52 and BECAUSEWECAN
fails that. WOOLFALL TREASURE also fails that and does
not make any appeal as another exposed horse on a career
high mark. I would oppose PORGY coming from a 10f race.
BRAVEHEART MOVE is also rejected coming from 10f too.
I dont like the record of fillies. None have won this race and No filly like LADY ECLAIR won last time. She is a 4yo filly and so far all 23 of those have been beaten in these 35 races. CHILLY FILLY is also a 4yo filly (0-23) and she comes from a 12f race and the only fillies to do that had Listed and Group class form and she does not. RECESSION PROOF has got too long an absence and looks underraced. MOON INDIGO comes from a Group 2 race. None of the 35 winners had ever run in a Group 1-2 race before never mind come from one. None of the 35 winners came from Group races unless they were 3 year olds and MOON INDIGO looks unsafe with 2 runs this season. Horses coming from 12f races with 9 or more career starts are 3-172 a miserable record. CRACKENTORP fails that and his last run was not good enough and no winners were similar to him. In the 35 renewals there were only 3 winners that hadn’t run in at least a Class 2 race before and they were all 3 year
olds. No older horse aged 4 or more failed to have run beyond a Class 3 race before telling me COTILLION lacks backclass to win this. Horses aged 4 with 13 or more career starts had a 2-100 record. PERFECT SHOT fails that. He has 3 career wins and horses in that 2-100 record with more than 2 wins were 0-67. I see PERFECT SHOT as unsafe and not for me.

I had 2 horses shortlisted on my Old Borough stats. I was left  with RED CADEAUX and KANSAI SPIRIT. I had a look at
KANSAI SPIRIT as a 4 year old with 7-12 runs and 1-2-3-4
runs that year. There were 3 winners but they all came from
better class races. I think he lacks backclass. If you look at all horses aged 4 or older that had never run in a Class 2 race or better before there is a 0-22 record and I just felt that he lacked backclass. You have to accept he could be improving fast but because of the superior backclass he has I would see RED CADEAUX as better statistically. His problem may be the drying ground. It will help his stamina but he likes softer ground and thats the main issue with RED CADEAUX. This is always a track that is well watered though. He is my choice

SELECTION – RED CADEAUX

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HAYDOCK 3.35

Betfred Sprint Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)  6f

7/4 Starspangledbanner, 9/2 Regal Parade, 9/1 Kingsgate Native 9/1 Markab, 10/1 Lady Of The Desert, 12/1 Borderlescott 16/1 Rainfall, 20/1 Doncaster Rover, 20/1 Genki 20/1 Prime Defender, 40/1 Our Jonathan, 50/1 Barney Mcgrew 50/1 Serious Attitude, 66/1 Sir Gerry, 100/1 Iver Bridge Lad 200/1 Fullandby

The Betfred Sprint Cup has never been a great race for strong angles despite a long history. I looked at the last 20 renewals of this race. None of them were 3yo fillies so I would oppose RAINFALL who is less experienced than any past winner and LADY OF THE DESERT who has the added problem in going down from an 8f race. Go back to 1966 in this race and only 1 winner was aged 7 or more. No winners since 1966 were aged 8  like BORDERLESCOTT and MARKAB is also older than ideal and has a bit to prove anyway. DONCASTER ROVER has the bridge from Listed Class to Group 1 to overcome something I dont think he will manage. Only 3 winners have won this race without Past Group 1 form  and they all had under 13 runs and  I think that suggests he will lack the class. The issue with those horses from 5f races is simple. There were 5 winners and they
all came from the Nunthorpe like STARSPANGLEDBANNER
and  KINGSGATE NATIVE. The better record comes from 4
year olds like STARSPANGLEDBANNER. It’s also interesting
every horse coming from the Nunthrope were beaten less than  4 lengths last time out. STARSPANGLEDBANNER managed
that but KINGSGATE NATIVE was beaten 5.5 lengths so just
marginally fails that angle. The issue with REGAL PARADE
is no past winner as old as him dropped in distance so I can’t match him to any past winner well enough. Statistically I see STARSPANGLEDBANNER as having the best chance but it’s a tight call and I dont see his price any bigger than it should be and at the prices I prefer KINGSGATE NATIVE. His profile is ony wrong as he lost by a little further in the Nunthorpe than ideal but that was a joke race where they went off far too hard and it was a false pace and KINGSGATE NATIVE had a weak profile that day and a bad draw. He looks the best value here.

Selection – KINGSGATE NATIVE Each Way 8/1 +

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THIRSK 4.40

See You Next Year Handicap (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 6f

5/1 Divertimenti, 11/2 Select Committee, 6/1 Avontuur
6/1 Rainy Night, 8/1 Mullglen, 8/1 Foreign Rhythm
10/1 Cross of Lorraine, 10/1 Secret City, 14/1 Pearly Wey
16/1 Dispol Grand, 16/1 Sea Rover, 20/1 Avertuoso
33/1 The Happy Hammer

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-70 rated horses. There has been 406 similar races at this time of year. It looks open and not an easy race. I wasnt keen on DIVERTIMENTI. I looked at all exposed horses like him that had just won a 6f handicap but did not run within 2 weeks. There were 3 winners doing that but none were like him. None were aged 6 or more and the 3 horses that did it all had form in a Class 2 race before and he has never been out of a Class 4 race before and that’s left me doubting his chance of following up. PEARLY WEY  doesnt come out well not doing enough last time out. I dont see a great case for CROSS OF LORRAINE. All similar types that went up in distance all had more backclass and that does hurt his profile and the booking of Paul Hanagan is probably shortening his price. On his profile there are doubts. Another 5f trip jumper  DISPOL GRAND didnt do enough last time. I see SEA ROVER underraced this year coming from a 5f race. I see AVERTUOSO as opposable. There are 5 horses that I’d
have to argue are “Possibles” and one selection.

POSSIBLES

AVONTUUR – 1 similar winner but badly treated
FOREIGN RHYTHM – Mare from 5f. I’d prefer recent run
RAINY NIGHT – Shortlistable but not quite right
MULLGLEN – I’d have liked less weight but chances
SECRET CITY – Would be much better with a recent run

SELECTION

SELECT COMMITTEE would be a Positive for me. It would
not worry me he hasnt won at 6f before. It wouldnt worry me he comes from a 5f race either because he has a recent run and  is well raced and fit. This trip could be what he has needed for  sometime now and I dont see many better profiles.

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HAYDOCK 4.45

Betfred.com Stakes (Registered As The Ascendant Stakes)
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 1m30y

4/6 Measuring Time, 4/1 Robin Hood, 6/1 Sonning Rose
12/1 Rhythm Of Light, 20/1 Claret´n´blue, 20/1 Singapore Lilly.

This is a Listed class race for 2 year olds over a Mile. It has had just 1 year’s history so I have looked at the 24 races like this at all tracks. These 24 races show horses that had  just 1 career start had a 0-19 record so RHYTHM OF LIGHT and CLARET´N´BLUE look underraced. Horses that came from Nurseries have a 0-18 record so SINGAPORE LILLY looks a horse to avoid. These would be my negatives. I think the other runners will provide the winner. ROBIN HOOD looks impossible to rate coming from Ireland but few past winners were beaten far last time and he was. Without any doubt the best profile belongs to favourite MEASURING TIME.

* Horses coming from the Solario Stakes last time
* Finishing 2nd or 3rd last time out
* Horses with that profile had a 4-5 record
* They finished W W W 2 W
* MEASURING TIME has that profile and looks best

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W O L V E R H A M P T O N

Not bothering with the Wolverhampton card as the earlier
racing has taken up a bit too much time and I did not fancy  much at all there. There is a quick statistic in the opening race at 5.50pm that I want to mention and see how it does.

* August-September have 315 maidens for 2yo’s at less than 6f
* Horses that started 66/1 or more last time out were 0-221

The favourite in this 5.50pm race is PLUME DE MA TANTE
and she started 66/1 only 10 days ago in a Catterick Race. The conidence behind her must have been slim. Yes she ran well in 2nd that day but on a tricky track and she comes out after just 10 days and starts favourite against many possible winners. My  interest will be in watching how PLUME DE MA TANTE gets on and seeing if She overcomes the 0-221 statistic in this race.  Its an obscure stat admittedly but it’s still 0-221 and because of  that I predict she will lose.

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
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Racing Tip For Newmarket

Some thoughts on Newmarket 2.05 today from Guy over at Mathematician Betting

==========================

I have previewed ten races today for full members.

For full service joining info See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

One of them I will pop up on the free blog.

NEWMARKET 2.05

Bbag-sales.de Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 1m2f

2/1 Psychic Ability, 11/2 Rumble Of Thunder, 13/2 Abergavenny 13/2 Spanish Duke,  Kindest, 10/1 Putra One, 12/1 Geneva Geyser 14/1 Bollin Dolly,16/1 Ramona Chase 40/1 All Annalena.

This is a complicated 10f Handicap. There are only 34 of these Class 2 handicaps in August. They’ve all gone to horses younger than BOLLIN DOLLY. My problem with PSYCHIC ABILITY  is having 1 run this year something no horse like him managed to do. I think the following statistic puts this in its right context.

* August has had 824 Handicaps at Every Distance
* Thats 824 races at any Distance in Class 2 and Class 3
* I looked at 3 year olds with 1 run this season
* There was a 3-67 record in these 824 races
* 1 of these came from a Group Class race so ignore that
* Those that had No Group class form were 2-52
* None of them won last time out (0-8)
* None of then won at shorter than 12f (0-42)
* Those with 8st 12lbs or more were 0-36
* Those with Under 5 career starts were 0-29
* That included 7 beaten favourites
* PSYCHIC ABILITY fails all these angles

I think the above statistics show it should be wise to try and get an alternative to PSYCHIC ABILITY who has after all got some Cheekpieces after just 3 runs. RUMBLE OF THUNDER is 4 and  has over 12 career starts and no 4 year old that esposed managed  to win with under 4 runs that season. I think he would have been Far better with another run. ALL ANNALENA also fails that as well. Horses aged 4 with 1-2-3 races this season need to be very  lightly raced and to have had form in Class 2 or higher. All those
that won also finished 1-2-3 last time out and failing those angles  is PUTRA ONE who may lack the backclass to win.

The 34 races show fillies having a 1-34 record and KINDEST is  not going to find this easy when you consider it’s a Handicap in Class 2 and she has never been out of a Class 4 race yet. She has benefitted from the rain but this is a step up in class for her. To  win a Class 2 Handicap you want recent form. The horses beaten  over 10 lengths last time were just 1-109 which puts me against RAMONA CHASE who was hammered last time. Horses aged 3 coming from 3yo handicaps have won these races.  However it is interesting None of them came from 12f races. None of them had an absence of more than a month and none had under 4 runs
that year. SPANISH DUKE has all of those factors against him.

* August has seen 286 Class 2 Handicaps at every distance
* Horses from 3yo handicaps when absent over a month are 4-79
* Those with 7 or more runs had a 0-47 record
* SPANISH DUKE has 9 runs and absent 63 days
* I think he is too exposed for a 3yo
* Especially facing a very unpleasant absence.

GENEVA GEYSER is 4 and has 4 runs this season and I see him  having too much weight for a 4yo with just 4 runs this year and  10st and he fails to make the shortlist.

SELECTION

ABERGAVENNY comes from a 3yo handicap but he has the
recent run and all the right backclass and is lightly raced and  thats a good profile and I dont see a better option. There is a question mark about the ground but there is no obvious reason why he should not appreciate it. I like ABERGAVENNY.

6/1 available widely including Betfred, Bet365, Ladbrokes

7/1 Betfair

check currest best odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-07/newmarket/14-05/betting/

Guy

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

Haydock Free Horse Racing Tip

In Yesterday’s main member message I didn’t suggest a stand out bet and decided to let the message stand or fall on the previews.
The mail had 10 previews and we came back with 5 winners
including a 16/1 winner and plenty of places as well.
It shows I am reading things well at the moment and have
the right level of confidence and momentum.

A ridiculous ammount of racing today. The main message for full members
has comments in 20 seperate races today so plenty to read.
Some are full detailed previews and others
just notes and little more.

Here on the free blog I am posting up one of the races covered.

Join the full service at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
and you can read the other races covered in our full member area.
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HAYDOCK 2.50

Bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)1m3f200y

9/2 Barshiba, 11/2 Polly´s Mark, 13/2 Grace O´malley
7/1 Les Fazzani,  8/1 Lady Jane Digby 9/1 Tinaar
10/1 Rosika, 14/1 Champagnelifestyle 25/1 Cassique Lady
25/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, 40/1 Najam.

* The Lancashire Oaks has 19 renewals since 1991
* This is a Group race over 11.5f for fillies
* The race may have changed since 2004
* Before then horses with 9 or more starts were 0-21
* Since 2004 we have had 3 winners with 9 or more runs
* I dont mind these horses as long as they match previous winners
*  NAJAM  won a 3yo maiden last time out like 4 past winners
* None however had 4 + runs like her
* None like her had 2 + runs that season
* NAJAM took 4 runs to win a maiden and thats not good enough
* TINAAR has just been beaten in a Hamilton Handicap
* None of the last 19 winners came from Handicaps
* TINAAR has never been in Listed or Group Class before
* Only 3 past winners could say that and all had under 4 runs
* TINAAR has 9 and may well lack the class
* No 4 year old won this with just 1 run this season
* The 2007 winner did officially but had 3 Hurdle races as well
* I think 1 run this year will leave a 4yo short
* ROSIKA fails that and has no form in Group class
* I dont fancy her winning this with just 1 run
* FLAME OF GIBRALTAR is rejected for similar reasons
* She is also a 4yo with 1 run this year
* She was well beaten last time as well
* There were only 2 winners aged 5 or more
* Both ran within a month and had 2-3 runs this season
* CLOWANCE is 5 and has just 1 run this season
* She also has a 77 day absence to overcome
* That would trouble me that no similar horse won
* Both winning horses aged 5 or more had Grade 1 form
* CASSIQUE LADY is 5 and does not have that
* They both came from higher class races than she does
* CASSIQUE LADY looks a grade below what is required
* BARSHIBA won this last year as a 5 year old
* She is now 6 and no past winner was that age
* Last year she was beaten 7 lengths at Ascot with 3 prep runs
* This year she was beaten 9 lengths at Ascot with 2 prep runs
* Not convinced that will be enough for her
* Only 2 past winners came From Royal Ascot
* Both had 3 + runs that season
* Thats my only concern alongside her age
* I am not shortlisting her because of that
* LADY JANE DIGBY doesnt interest me
* There were 5 winners that came from 10f or shorter
* They were all 3 year olds and lightly raced
* LADY JANE DIGBY is exposed and aged 5 doing that
* Because of that I feel she is the wrong type
* LES FAZZANI is 6 older than all past winners since 2001
* With 23 runs he is the joint most exposed runner
* You can argue all her turf wins came on soft ground
* If the ground was not fast I would respect her
* She is still older than any past winner though
* Because of that I dont want to select her

SHORTLIST

POLLYS MARK
GRACE O´MALLEY
CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE

* CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE is 3 and comes from the Oaks
* Horses doing that with 2 runs this season like here were 2-5
* They both had 3 career starts and she has 4 runs
* Thats the only thing different from her profile
* She was backed for this last Wednesday
* I think she has a reasonably good chance of a surprise
* POLLYS MARK is 4 and has had 13 career starts
* Horses aged 4 won 6 races but only 1 had 9 or more starts
* The record of 4 year olds with 9 + runs is 1-26 (Pongee 2004)
* However that 4yo winner (Pongee) had 2 runs that year like her
* She also came from the same race the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock
* That puts POLLYS MARK firmly in the picture
* She didnt win at Haydock unlike the 2004 winner
* She was beaten in a photo and thats good enough for me
* You would like the stable in better form though
* GRACE O´MALLEY is a Positive
* Hard to read and from Ireland but no obvious flaws
* In form and thriving now she is in foal

SELECTION

GRACE O´MALLEY 6/1 Each Way

If the 3 year old (Champagnelifestyle) pops up I wont
be surprised but I have 3 on the shortlist and can not go
with all of them. I am going with GRACE O´MALLEY
because she is in Foal and has already won recently when
in Foal and hopefully she can carry that forward to win.

GRACE O´MALLEY 7/1 Each Way

(Polly’s Mark an optional Saver)

NB 7/1 was available earlier when this was given to full members

now best priced 13/2 at VC stanjames Tote

Saturday Betting Advice

Ten previews today for full members.
Impossible to go throughit all with so many
meetings and as ever it’s theusual Saturday balancing
act of trying to offer a balanced message with potential
bets withoutkilling the chances through looking at too much.

This feels like a tough Saturday to me. Plenty of
the big field Saturday television handicaps today.
Statistically the strongest profiles in these races
have non – statistical problems with the likes of
Our Joe Mac and Ziggy Lee in the 2.30 and 3.40
races having outstanding profiles but issues to
overcome with the ground and the draw. I don’t
see either as safe enough to go with as a bet. I’d
not see this as a message to follow all the way to
the end as the races are too difficult and there is
a limit to how many winners we can have today.

Would have liked a strong bet on a Saturday but
if there is not one so be it. I think the race that I’d
be best to advise to bet in would be the Haydock
Mile handicap at 4.40pm. I think I have the correct
mix of negatives prices and profiles in the race and
I want to use this race to try and get a winner for
full members.

They quite rightfully complain however if the strongest bets
go up here on the free blog so I have selected another race
from the main message here today.

CHESTER 5.10

Lambrini Original Handicap (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 1m2f75y

7/2 Norwegian Dancer, 7/2 Prince Of Johanne
9/2 Bullet Man 6/1 I´m In The Pink, 10/1 Kidlat
10/1 Paquerettza, 20/1 Geneva Geyser, 25/1 Dragon Slayer
33/1 Bagutta Sun.

This is a 10f handicap for 0-85 rated horses. We have 145
similar races at this time of year. I think KIDLAT looks to
have too much to do well beaten just 2 days ago. Horses
beaten more than 10 lengths with just 1 run this season
had a miserable record. Those like GENEVA GEYSER that
dropped in trip were 0-50 and he looks weak. Another to
fall foul of that stat is DRAGON SLAYER too old for me
to overcome such a defeat. I’d oppose BAGUTTA SUN
from a 7f race. Only 2 of the 145 winners did that but its
relevant none were fillies and none as inexperienced as
she is. PRINCE OF JOHANNE has a complicated profile.
I looked at all 4 year olds like him with 7-12 runs who are
running within the last fortnight and found a poor 1-39
record. I can improve that record if I look at horses that
ran 2-4 weeks away but none were 1st or 2nd last time
and most had less weight. I think he is a borderline case
for shortlisting as he is complicated. What I dont like is
his Draw in stall 1. At this trip thats not the best draw
as very low drawn horses can often get cut off at what
is a very quick first bend. Overall I felt he was never a
horse I would select so I leave him off the shortlist. It’s
hard to rule out I´M IN THE PINK but I was not happy
with a horse without any backclass coming down from
a 12f race and found a weak profile. As it is already a
heavy shortlist as it is such an open race I am leaving
I´M IN THE PINK off it as there are better profiles.

SHORTLIST

NORWEGIAN DANCER has a good profile and from all
4 year olds winning with 1 run that season he comes out
as quite similar to those so is a positive. I have found 1
similar winner to PAQUERETTZA. Not a prolific profile
but it gets her shortlisted. No reason why BULLET MAN
cant win this race. 3 shortlisted. Open race. Tight Decision.

SELECTION

BULLET MAN each way
5/1 PaddyPower Ladbrokes Betfred blue sq stanjames

Guy Ward

For More info on Guys advisory service

click here   ===> Betting Advice

2000 Guineas Analysis

2000 Guineas message from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

—————————————————————–

It is 2000 Guineas day today. There are some big
poweful meetings today. There’s plenty of rain in
the air as well and some changing in the ground.
Always a danger of overstretching yourself and
doing too much on this particular Saturday. The
message for full members has 7 previews including
five handicapsand the 2000 Guineas itself which is
fascinating.

The seven races start slowly and build up into a
strong finish. Early doors there are 2 Goodwood
handicaps and they are just standard bottom of
the message races. I take in the Guineas and the
Palace House Stakes but we are not really in the
territory we should be for account bets. I like a
good go at the Thirsk Hunt Cup and have done
well there over the years. This year I like a 16/1
chance but it is probably too difficult this year.

The two races I like best are two divisions of a
5f Handicap at Thirsk at 5.15pm and 5.45. Same
angles apply in both races. Sometimes Thirsk is
such a seductive track as the angles there can
be out of this world but it is a track that throws
up results that make the angles look ridiculous
at times but despite that I feel strong in these 2
races and thats where I feel we should be going.

For full members there are Account Bets in these two thirsk races.

For the free blog however we will take a look at the the big race of the day
the 200 Guineas

****************************************************
****************************************************

NEWMARKET 3.05

StanJames.com 2000 Guineas Stakes
(Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (3yo)1m

Evs St Nicholas Abbey, 7/1 Elusive Pimpernel, 9/1 Canford Cliffs 10/1 Awzaan,
12/1 Fencing Master, 20/1 Al Zir, 20/1 Dick Turpin 20/1 Inler, 20/1 Xtension,
28/1 Makfi, 33/1 Hearts Of Fire 40/1 Viscount Nelson, 66/1 Fair Trade,
100/1 Buzzword 100/1 Elspeth´s Boy, 100/1 Lord Zenith,
100/1 Red Jazz 200/1 Audacity Of Hope, 200/1 Greyfriarschorista.

The 2000 Guineas is fascinating as ever. There are so many
issues in this race. I can throw killer stats at everything in the race.
It depends mainly on ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and whether
Aidan O Brien’s horse needs further.
Those people opposing ST NICHOLAS ABBEY have valid arguments.
It is true his Sire has a poor Group 1 record with Milers.
It is also true running over a mile as a 2 year old has not been a good thing to
do in this race but it has been done and he is clearly going to be top class.
The issue for me is what can I sensibly oppose him with. I think there are few alternatives.

With ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL he is already well held by the
favourite. I dont see winning the Craven as a big help and
he is also a middle distance horses. I think he find Stall one hurts him.
Since 2007 Newmarket’s had 25 races with 14 or more runners.
Stalls 1-2-3 had a 1-72 record in these races and that sole winner was
Sea The Stars a wonderhorses. I’d argue ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL may
be in trouble from his draw trying to get into the race.
AWZAAN also has a poor draw in Stall 2 and has to come from a 6f race
and has never run at further than 6f. I read in the paper recently that in the last
50 years there was only 1 winner of this race that never previously ran at 7f
or more and that was in 1999 and a race generally viewed as one of the worst
Guineas in years and over 100 of these horses like AWZAAN had tried.
He lacks a good profile and a good draw. FENCING MASTER makes limited appeal.
He looks like he wants further just as both his parents did and all his siblings.
CANFORD CLIFFS did not look certain to stay the 7f in the Greenham so
there has to be serious doubts about him staying a mile and beaten in a trial is
hardly a ringing endorsement. I cant have INLER as a horse coming from 6f with
just 1 career start. I’d question whether XTENSION has the class. AL ZIR needs to improve
so much and has already been beaten up by the favourite in
the Racing Post Trophy. I can see the argument to suggest
that DICK TURPIN is overpriced at 25/1 and could place. I
do think there are good arguments about every runners. In
the end it came down to ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and I dont
see a horse I can offer as a sensible alternative. I’d pick him.

SELECTION

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY

Check the link below for best current odds

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-05-01/newmarket/15-05/betting/