Racing Post Chase Tip

One of the major races today is The Racing Post Chase over at Kempton.

Race analyst Guy Ward provides his thoughts on the race below.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Betting


Thanks for those of you who emailed to say thanks for a bit of extra winnings last week.  Not the full cigar but 9/1 each way returned a bit of profit.

I had a couple of requests to have a look at the Racing Post Chase this week on the free blog.

It’s one of the extra races I looked at for full members so here are my quick thoughts on it.


Racing Post Chase Handicap Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

5/1 Fistral Beach, 5/1 Nacarat, 6/1 Quinz, 8/1 Bakbenscher
9/1 Mostly Bob, 10/1 Sagalyrique, 12/1 Hey Big Spender
12/1 Tatenen, 14/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Polyfast
20/1 Crescent Island, 20/1 Door Boy, 20/1 Ringaroses
25/1 Piraya, 33/1 Safari Adventures, 40/1 Free World
40/1 Mount Oscar.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 16 renewals of this race.
* Febuary and March have seen 136 Handicap Chases
* Thats 136 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher
* FISTRAL BEACH doesnt offer enough for me
* Not keen he has just 1 run this season
* No past winner of this race had 1 run that season
* In 136 of these races I looked at those with 1 run this year
* When coming from 22f or shorter there were 3 winners
* Those with 7 or more career starts were just 1-35
* That winner had less weight and a more recent run
* CRESCENT ISLAND has the same problems to overcome
* RINGAROSES is wrong with 1 run this season
* None of the 136 winners came from 18f or shorter
* All 32 lost and FREE WORLD fails that
* QUINZ comes from a Novice Chase
* No winner of this race came from an ordinary Novice Chase
* Horses doing that in 136 other races had a 3-59 record
* None were aged 7 like QUINZ (0-14)
* None had as much weight as he does either
* Horses beaten in a Novice Chase last time were 0-24
* QUINZ also fails that and doesnt come out well enough
* MOUNT OSCAR is out up in trip aged 12
* SAFARI ADVENTURES is exposed and up in trip
* He lacks the backclass to overcome that
* PIRAYA is exposed up in trip with 1-2-3 runs this season
* Similar horses had a 1-51 record
* That winner had more backclass than PIRAYA
* He also flopped in last years race and wants a small field
* RAZOR ROYALE won this race last year
* This year he has a much inferior preparation
* He is exposed this year and has far fewer prep runs
* He also has a nasty absence which doesnt help him
* I dont see him bouncing back to form with his profile
* MOSTLY BOB comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* He only has 9 career National Hunt Starts
* Horses from Novice Handicaps with under 13 runs are 0-14
* MOSTLY BOB fails that and looks wrong to me
* I looked at all 8 year olds from Novice Handicap Chases
* I found only 1 winner and he had far more backclass
* MOSTLY BOB only has 3 career Chase starts
* Thats very inexperienced and he fell in one of those chases
* The 16 winners of this race had the following Chase starts
* 9 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13
* The lightest raced chaser to win this Gloria Victus (2000)
* He had 5 runs which is far more experienced than he is
* MOSTLY BOB doesnt look right with 3 runs from handicaps
* DOOR BOY doesnt appeal much to me
* Well beaten on all  starts this year
* I couldnt find a winner like him in the 136 races
* His lack of form this year makes him vulnerable
* POLYFAST is 8 and won a Handicap Chase last time
* That was over 2m 5f and there are 4 similar winners
* They all had a more recent run than him
* They all had more backclass as well
* POLYFAST hasnt been out of Listed Class yet
* 3 or the 4 similar winners had Grade 1 form before
* They all came from higher in the weights as well
* His form over this far raises stamina doubts too
* Statistically he doesnt make the grade for me
* SAGALYRIQUE is 7 and comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* I found 1 similar winner doing that
* He did have a bit more backclass than he does
* The issue with SAGALYRIQUE is if he has the class
* My best guess is that he wont
* The overnight rain wont have helped him either
* With Blinkers and a Tongue Strap he doesnt feel like the one



* NACARAT doesnt have a major statistical problem
* The 2004 winner (Malborough) had a very similar profile
* His stable is out of form though
* HEY BIG SPENDER is 8 and won a 21f handicap last time
* I found 3 similar winners with that profile
* They all had Grade 1 form and a high weight and recent run
* HEY BIG SPENDER also fits that profile
* The 2001 and 1999 winners of this race had that profile
*  HEY BIG SPENDER has a good profile for me
* One doubt is whether he can recover from his last race
* Only 14 days ago it would be a small concern
* No horse won this from 2m 5f in the past fortnight
* The other is whether a right handed flat track suits
* All his best form came away from tighter tracks
* It was tight at Warwick last time but not right handed
* TATENEN is 7 and won a 22f handicap last time
* I found 1 similar winner in the 136 races
* TATENEN has to prove he stays 3 Miles today
* His 4 runs at 3m and more have been bad defeats
* He was not fancied in 3 of those 4 runs
* Wrong to assume he doesnt stay based on that record
* His trainer is on record as being unsure if he stays 3m
* Shortlistable on his profile his biggest issue is stamina
* BAKBENSCHER is hard to read from a Graduation Chase
* Plenty to like about his profile
* Not least a good recent win and strong form right handed
* Statistically he is hard to assess because of his last run
* The Positives far outweight the doubts for me


All 4 have at least one concern as mentioned above. I see
TATENEN placing but perhaps not staying well enough to
win. NACARAT is respected and looks saver material with
topweight. The last four winners were 8 year olds and that
and a recent run steers me towards  BAKBENSCHER

BAKBENSCHER Win Bet     9/1  at Bet365 and VC

( Nacarat – Optional Saver)

Saturday Febuary 28th

No Account Bet

One Selection

Kempton 5.05


Win Bet around 7/2- 4/1- 9/2

Currently 4/1 at William Hill , Ladbrokes , Centrebet , Blue Square

I have spent a lot of time on Bumper at
Kempton where THE BISHOP’S BABY has a massive
chance and I think she may win this. If she had been
trained by a bigger yard and also had a professional
on board I would have made her a full account bet as
an each way bet or with a saver in the race. I think
she will either bolt up or run into something above
average which is unlikely. The other problem is with
these races we have no control over prices so I will
make her a selection only. If she wins around 4/1 I
will have done my job well for a Saturday.

Have to go where the statistics take
me and THE BISHOP’S BABY is favoured as a bigger
price than most of these handicap options yet faces
nothing like as much opposition. Just the One bet on
Saturday but much to pick over elsewhere.


T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

I was hindered yesterday for the full member message
and lost a lot of time with some
connection problems and I didnt have a bet because of it.
If I had just gone with one it probably would have won as
I count 10 selections in yesterdays message and these 10
produced a W W W W W 3rd W W 2nd W record which was
pretty spectacular. Not going to let it get to me and will
carry on as planned. Shorter Messages. Finding some bets
that are stronger than we have had recently and get some
profit racked up as quickly as we can



4/1 Aconitum, 5/1 Artist’s Moon, 5/1 The Bishops Baby,
11/2 Time To Think, 7/1 Divine Intavention, 7/1 Loana
Shell, 8/1 Mintiverdi, 12/1 Robo, 14/1 Genies Lamp, 33/1
Rapid Connection, 100/1 Patrick Dee.

* This is a Maiden Bumper over 2 miles
* Febuary and March have seen 48 of these races
* Rapid Connection- Patrick Dee look outclassed
* Fillies and Mares have a poor 5-172 record
* With 1 career run they are 0-73
* LOANA SHALL fails that
* No mare was absent as long as GENIIES LAMP
* Febuary and March have seen 490 Bumpers
* These are all maiden and non maiden races
* Unraced females are 13-702 a 1.85% strike rate
* Thye score badly but cant be entirely ruled out
* However I would want to oppose these runners
* Both are unraced females and I dislike that
* ROBO is unraced at 16/1 and not for me
* I looked at 4 year olds with 1 run in 490 similar races
* Those absent 7 weeks or more were 1-107
* ACONITUM fails that and also comes from a 3yo race
* Horses that did that were 1-33
* ARTIST´S MOON has to be respected from Hendersons
* However he is a once raced 4yo losing by 59 lengths last time
* 4 year olds with 1 run losing by 25 + lengths were 4-276
* Since 1997 that record was just 1-172
* Those that didnt run in 2 weeks were 1-215
* I dont see where the improvement comes from



DIVINE INTAVENTION ran a strong 5th on his debut
and is statistically strong and I like his chance in this. THE BISHOPS BABY is also highly interesting as the only horse with 2 runs something that last years winner had. I think this pair have the strongest chance by far in this race. Video analysis leads me to the following. THE BISHOPS BABY has already clocked a higher  RPR than the average winners of these races.




Best Wishes


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