Saturday Racing Analysis from RacingTrends

Main Account Bets – Haajes (4.45 Ling) – take 6/1 (Corals, Sky bet, sporting bet) WIN

Firstly some 15 year trends for three of the big races today:

1.05 Ascot Reynoldstown Chase

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 9 winning favourites from 15 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of £8.48 (ROI +56.5%).
Market: There were 4 winning second favourites, so 13 of the 15 came from the top 2 in the market.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at either Kempton, Wetherby or Exeter last time out have an excellent combined record with 9 wins from just 19 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £11.68 (ROI +61.5%). Indeed, if you focus on last time winners at those courses the record improves to 8 wins from just 15 qualifiers for a profit of £12.68 (ROI +90.6%).
Price: Horses priced 7/2 or shorter have produced 13 of the 15 winners.
LTO winners: 14 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
Career wins: Horses with 4 or more career wins produced 11 of the last 15 winners.
Racing Post Ratings: The top rated horses fromRacing Post ratings (formerly Postmark) has found the winner on 7 occasions.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced 0 wins from 32 qualifiers.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO have produced 0 winners from 20.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds

have produced 4 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 26.7%); 7 year olds have produced

8 winners from 38 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 8 year olds plus have produced 2 winners

from 37 qualifiers (SR 5.4%).

Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some very strong positive pointers. 13 of the last 15 winners have been one of the top two in the betting market so this is a definite starting point with preference to favourites who have an outstanding record. From there look for last time out winners, although it is likely that the top two in the market would have won LTO. Horses that raced at either Kempton, Wetherby or Exeter last time out would be the next port of call considering their excellent record. Finally, it should be noted that the last 28 horses aged 8 or older have lost, so it is best to concentrate on younger horses (7yo or younger with slight preference to 5 and 6yos).

Conclusion – Breedsbreeze the favourite at a best priced 5/4 looks a solid trends horse.

2.55 Haydock Rendlesham Hurdle

POSITIVE TRENDS

Days since last run: Horses that return to the track within 2 weeks have a good record with 5 wins from 23 qualifiers. The winners included all 3 horses that won the race at 10/1 or bigger (10/1, 12/1, 100/1).
Race type LTO: Horses that ran in a handicap last time out won 7 races, and last time out winners from handicaps have won 3 from 10.
Price: 10 of the last 15 winners were priced 4/1 or bigger last time out.
French breds: 5 of the last 7 winners have been French bred.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course LTO: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a surprisingly poor record with 1 win from 17 for a loss of £13.50 (ROI -79.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 6 winning favourites (including joints)

from 16 qualifiers showing a loss of £1.87 (ROI -9.8%).

Market: The top 3 in the betting provided 10 of the last 15 winners.
Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have won just 1 from 23, but the price of the

winner was 100/1.

Class LTO: 7 of the 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO. 8 of the 15 winners raced

in a higher or the same class LTO.

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winners from 8 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 6 year olds have produced 3 winners from 18 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 3 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.6%); 8 year olds have won 4 from 24 qualifiers (16.7%); 9 years olds plus have produced 4 winners from 29 qualifiers (SR 13.9%).

Trends analysis: the market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. However, any horse returning to the track within 2 weeks is worth close scrutiny, and with 3 fairly decent priced winners from this stat, this is where some value may be found.Horses that ran in a handicap last time have a better record than one would think and the handful who won that handicap LTO have definitely been worth noting. Horses that were 4/1 or bigger last time out have provided 66.7% of the winners – statistically this figure is normally only 40% in this grade type/grade so this is a stat worth checking out. French breds have a good recent record and any such runner demands respect. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

Conclusion – nothing really stands out trends wise and from a form perspective the race does look at match between the top 2 in the market.

2.40 Wincanton – Kingwell Hurdle

POSITIVE TRENDS

Course LTO: Horses that ran at Sandown last time out have a good record with 5 wins from 23 qualifiers. Backing all runners would have produced a small profit of £2.13 (ROI +9.3%).
Age: 6 year olds have a good record with 7 wins from 29 qualifiers including 4 of the last 5 winners of this race. 7 years old have a fairly good record also with 4 wins from 23.
Racing Post: Racing Post Ratings (old Postmark) have had their top rated horse win 6 times out of the last 11 races. Topspeed in the Racing Post has an even better recent record with 7 wins from the last 11 top rated horses.
Recent win: 11 of the last 15 winners won at least once in their last three races.
Position LTO: 9 of the last 15 winners won or finished 2nd LTO. They have provided 60% of the winners from 38% of the total runners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: Only 1 out of 7 “odds against” favourites has won (Inglis Drever at 11/10 in 2005).
Age: Horses aged 8 or older have produced just 1 winner from 28 for a loss of £11.00 (ROI -39.3%).
Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 29.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors, or horses that have worn them at some stage in their career have produced 0 winners from 19.
Beaten favourites: Beaten favourites last time out have a poor record with just 1 win from 10.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 7 winning favourites from 15, but a loss would have been made backing all of them to the tune of £2.57 (ROI -17.1%).

Trends analysis: from the positive stats perspective, preference should be for 6yos, then 7yos. Also monitor closely the selections of Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed. When they have agreed on the top rated selection they have provided 5 winners from just 9 runners. A recent win is a plus (last three starts), while it is best to ignore any runner that is or has done in the past worn blinkers or a visor.

Conclusion – not a particularly strong trends race but Whiteoak looks to fit the trends best.Having said that it looks a tough ask after a long break on not ideal ground.

Other races

1.55 Haydock – good competitive contest this.

Miko De Beauchene – Did well last season, following up Welsh National success with win in this race from a 8lblower mark. Could go well at decent odds on ground he handles.

Opera Mundi – Has a mixed record, but on soft / heavy it reads: 21112163. Solid chance.
Mon Mome – Back to his best this season when winning at Cheltenham in December. Seemed to have put last season which was poor behind him. Excuses in Welsh National next time (race probably came too quick); handles ground and a player. Record on soft/heavy reads 2U3612114224382.
Cornish Sett – in good form last 2 starts including runner-up in Welsh National from this handicap mark.

Nenuphar Collonges – record on soft/heavy reads 61212217. Should go well with a good round of jumping.

Rambling Minster – Won for eighth time in career at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Up in the weights in a stronger race is the concern.

CharacterBuilding – decent chance on best form. Cheekpieces may help; McCoy will help more.

Eric’s Chram – Front-runner who has fair form but his jumping can be sloppy and that will be a problem.
Glasker Mill – slight concern about the trip but should not be dismissed.
Sherwoods Folly – fifth in Welsh National last time and should be on the premises if able to reproduce that sort of effort here.
Beat The Boys – won 4 times as a novice last year. Form of the yard still a bit suspect so passed over.
D’Argent – stable second string but trip will suit.
Nadover – potentially well weighted and goes on heavy. Soft/heavy record reads:

5421113P713737. Not out of it.
CarnivalTown – handicap mark looks a bit harsh at present.
L’Aventure – quirky type who I’d always rather be against than for.

Conclusion – very open race. My two against the field would be Mon Mome and Opera Mundi.

Onto the all weather:

3.30 Kempton – Wotashirtfull is around even money in this 3 runner sprint. He should win.

3.35 Lingfield – Majuro looks the value option here in an open little affair.

4.05 Kempton – Millfield and Tous Les Deux head the market and these definitely look the two most likely winners. Tous Les Deux would just get my vote.

4.10 Lingfield – Quick Single at around 5/1 may be a bit of value in this maiden.

4.45 Lingfield – Haajes looks overpriced in this good sprint. He is nearer a 4/1 chance on my tissue and so at 6/1 he rates as a bet.
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Saturday Racing Bets from RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Horse Racing Bets From www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Gustavo (1.25 Sandown) –

best price 33/1 (sporting bet / skybet) – EACH WAY

Approved Force (3.05 Sandown)

– take 22/1 best odds guaranteed atWilliam Hill – EACH WAY

Diriculous (3.30 Great Leighs)

- take 2/1 best odds guaranteed at William Hill / Stan James / Boyle Sports – WIN

Saturday Racing

First some trends – 15 years worth

2.35 Sandown – Tingle Creek Chase – 2 miles (Grade 1)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
12 of the last 15 winners have come from the top three in the betting.
Price:
9 of the last 15 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter.
Position
LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 8 of the last 15 winners.
Seasonal
debutants: Horses making their seasonal debuts have a good record with
7 wins from 25 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have produced
a £8.50 profit (ROI +34%).
Market
position LTO: Horses that were first or second favourites last time
out have provided 13 winners of the 15 winners.
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Exeter last time out have a good record
with 4 of the 17 qualifiers going onto win this race. Backing all qualifiers
would have yielded a £5.83 profit (+34.3%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market:
Horses ranked fifth or higher in the betting have provided just 1 winner
from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £33.00 (ROI -82.5%).
Price:
Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have recorded no wins from 44 qualifiers.
Position
LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse last time out (and
completed the course) have produced just 2 winners from 34 qualifiers
for a loss of £22.50 (ROI -66.2%).
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time out have
a surprisingly poor record with only 3 wins from 37 qualifiers for a
loss of £25.67 (ROI -69.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites
(inc. joints): There have been 6 winning favourites (including joints)
from 16 for a small loss of 82 pence.
Age:
5 year olds have won 3 races from 8 qualifiers (SR 37.5%); 6 year olds
have won 2 races from 13 qualifiers (SR 15.4%); 7 year olds have won
5 races from 23 qualifiers (SR 21.7%); 8 year olds have won 3 races
from 23 qualifiers (SR 13%); 9 year olds and older have won 2 races
from 33 qualifiers (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis: favourites
have a fairly good record, but it looks best to concentrate on the top three
in the betting as they have provided 80% of the winners. Indeed focusing on
horses priced 15/2 or shorter has provided every single winner in the last 15
years. From there, pay special attention to horses either making their seasonal
debuts, and/or those who were first or second in the betting on their most recent
start. Moving onto negatives, if they raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time
out this then there is almost certainly value looking elsewhere, as is there
looking for horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO (having completed
course). This process should pinpoint a clear trends pick. In terms of age,
5 years have a good record from a small number of runners, while 9 year olds
or older look poor value.

Conclusion – Master Minded
has a good trends profile; slightly better than second favourite TidalBay, but
TidalBay looks the value price of the pair to me.

3.05 Sandown – Listed handicap hurdle 2 miles ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have won 7 races from 49 qualifiers
for a profit of £11.50 (ROI +23.5%).
Position
LTO: 10 of the last 15 winners won last time out. Backing all qualifiers
would have produced a profit of £13.33 (ROI +20.2%).
Weight
carried: The bottom five in the weights (inc. joints) have a good record
with 10 wins from 82 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded
a profit of £23.50 (ROI +28.7%).
Racing
Post Speed ratings: Topspeed in the Racing Post has had 5 top rated
/ joint top rated winners for a profit of £29.25 (ROI +162.5%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
There have been 3 winning favourites from 15 qualifiers for a loss of
£8.17 (ROI -57.5%).
Price:
Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 88 qualifiers
for a loss of £62.00 (ROI -70.5%).
Weight
carried: The top five in the weights have a poor record with only 2
wins from 73 qualifiers and a loss of £69.67 (ROI -88.2%).
Days
since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 7 weeks or more
have produced 0 winners from 35 qualifiers.
Beaten
favourites: 25 beaten favourites have run in this race and all have
lost.

GENERAL STATS

Age:
4 year olds have won 5 races from 49 qualifiers (SR 10.2%); 5 year olds
have won 5 races from 74 qualifiers (SR 6.8%); 6 year olds have won
4 races from 51 qualifiers (SR 7.8%); 7 year olds plus have won 1 race
from 45 qualifiers (SR 2.2%).

Trends analysis: favourites
have a poor record which is no surprise considering the race usually attracts
a big field and hence is a competitive affair. Having said that outsiders have
a poor record also, so it seems best to focus on horses priced under 20/1. The
bottom five in the weights have won 67% of the races from just 37% of the runners,
so these horses merit close scrutiny, as do horses won last time out. Horses
to avoid seem to be horses at the top of the weights, beaten favourites last
time out, 7 year olds and older, and horses that have been off the track for
7 or more weeks.

Conclusion – from a trends
perspective Spear Thistle looks the one to be on.

At an each way price Approved
Force looks interesting. Had good form as 3yo and he looks overpriced. Hills
offer best odds guaranteed at 22/1 and that rates good each way value.

2.00 Sandown – Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – 2 miles (Grade
2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites
(inc. joints): There have been 10 winning favourites (including joints)
from 17 qualifiers for a profit of £4.81 (ROI +28.3%).
Market:
14 of the last 15 winners have come from the top two in the betting.
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter.
LTO
winners: 10 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
Recent
form: 23 horses have come into the race having finished first or second
on all of their last three starts and 8 have won.
Jumping:
All 15 winners came into the race having never fallen / unseated previously
in their careers.
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record
with 6 of the 20 qualifiers going onto win this race.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market:
Horses third or bigger in the betting have provided just 1 winner from
50 qualifiers for a loss of £43.00 (ROI – 86%).
Price:
Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have recorded no wins from 27 qualifiers.
Course
winners: Course winners have only won once from 15 runners for a loss
of £12.62 (ROI -84.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Age:
4 and 5 year olds have won 5 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 6
year olds have won 7 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 21.2%); 7 year olds
plus have won 3 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 13.6%).

Trends analysis: the top
two in the market have dominated this event winning a all bar one of the races,
with favourites doing especially well winning 67% of them. From here you need
to focus on good jumpers as none of the winners had previous fallen in their
careers. Last time out winners have a good record, while horses that ran at
Cheltenham last time out have a good record also.

Conclusion – of the front
two in the market, second favourite Araldur has the better profile and at 7/2
looks better value.

——————–

1.25 Sandown – this is an
open handicap hurdle but one horse stands out for me at the early prices. Gustavo
hails from a stable that seems to be running into form and he has plenty of
other positives as well. He has a good record fresh, has a good record on right
handed tracks (4 wins, 2 placed from 8 ) and acts on the ground. The jockey
looks a potential negative but he has an 18% strike rate for Venetia Williams
so perhaps that is not a worry. At 33/1 best price at sporting bet and sky bet
/ mid 40s on Betfair he looks a worthwhile punt. If you don’t have an account
with sporting bet / sky bet then take the best odds guaranteed at either bet
365 or William Hill (both price up at 25/1).

3.30 Great Leighs – Diriculous
looks a solid favourite and 2/1 looks a fair bet to me.

This message was provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk