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Saturday 10th January 5.30pm ko Live on Setanta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS – 1 LEAGUE GAME) (Stoke and Liverpool have only played one League game in last 5 years)

 

 

 

STOKE – LAST FIVE GAMES

 

LIVERPOOL– LAST FIVE GAMES

 

 

 

 

Alvaro Arbeloa is still missing for Liverpool as is fellow right back Philip Degen. Therefore Carragher is set to continue at right back. Sami Hyypia, Daniel Agger and fit again Martin Skrtel will compete for the two centre back positions.

 

Aurelio returns at left back to replace Insua, who is now away on international duty with Argentina’s U20 squad.

 

Fernando Torres came off the bench to score in the FA cup last week and should start against Stoke.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STOKE                         10/1                   9%

DRAW                          4/1                    20%     

LIVERPOOL                  2/5                    71%

 

 

 

 

MATCH:

 

League leaders Liverpool travel to Stoke looking to open up a five point gap at the top of the premiership. Their away form is excellent with seven wins from ten and just a single defeat, which was a bit of a freak result against Spurs, in a game they had completely dominated. Stoke, like many promoted sides, started the season very well, but after the initial high of premiership football wore off, their results nosedived. Since beating Arsenal on November the first Stoke have won just once in nine league games, and that was a narrow victory against fellow strugglers WBA. In this time they have failed to score five times and are now facing a fourth defeat on the bounce. They were knocked out of the cup last week by league one Hartlepool, and have scored just once in five games. Their task of beating Liverpool is made all the more difficult by the suspension of top scorer Ricardo Fuller who was sent off against West Ham for slapping his own captain, Andy Griffin, across the face. This incident will surely have damaged morale in the dressing room too. Griffin will also be missing with an injury as will Amdy Faye. It all points to an away win, but best odds of 4/9 are not big enough to warrant backing. Stoke did manage a 0-0 draw at Anfield earlier in the season but they might be a little more adventurous at home and this will play into Liverpool’s hands. Liverpool “to win to nil” is almost a bet at 11/10 with Ladbrokes and the Tote but is just a little too short.

 

 

GOALS:

 

The stats above suggest that there will not be many goals in this one and under 2.5 goals at evens with Stan James and VC is worth a bet. From the tables above you can see that 65% of Liverpool’s last twenty away games have featured two goals or less. At the same time, Stoke’s home games this season have resulted in two goals or less 60% of the time. The previous fixture this season also finished 0-0 yet under 2.5 goals is available at evens, suggesting it is only a 50% possibility. When Manchester United visited Stoke earlier in the season they won by just a single goal, and when Chelsea visited they won by two goals to nil. Both these scorelines are strong possibilities on Saturday. Stoke are going to struggle to score without their top scorer and against a defence that has kept five clean sheets on the road already. Their approach should be negative enough to also ensure that Liverpool do not score more than two.

 

 

GOALSCORERS:

 

With a low goals expectancy, it generally means that anytime goalscorer bets should be avoided. Nobody stands out as any real value. If I had to pick someone out I’d have a couple of quid on either Sammi Hyypia or Daniel Agger to score first at 28/1, but check the line ups first.