Horse Betting On Derby Day

Our usual free Saturday Horse Racing Tip from Guy over at the Mathematician Betting wesite.

To visit his site click here==>  Horse Betting

———————————————————————-

It’s Derby Day and whilst the big race is a poor shadow of
the race it used to be we have 7 meetings today and simply
a Tsunani of Racing deliberately designed to trip us up. No
chance of covering it all. Just doing what I can where I can.

I have ended up in a lot of quality handicaps in my profiles for full members today. Several lower class races have had to be ignored with so much of it. The Catterick and Beverley cards don’t get much coverage and given time limitations it’s the Classier races that dominate.

The profit built up this year is looking healthy and there’s no long term issues at all. Still aiming for a record breaking season.
It’s in the Short term we could do with a winner and to do that will probably
mean having to sort out a difficult Class 2 Handicap today which is dangerous
and intimidating and I think I have three options today worth considering.

My favoured two options today I have kept for full members as firm advised tips.
Available in the member right now if you care to join up.

Third in my pecking order today is below for you.

Epsom 4.50

5/1 King4s Warrior, 11/2 Communicator
7/1 Spanish Duke, 8/1 A Boy Named Suzi, 8/1 Quiz Mistress
9/1 Fiery Lad, 11/1 Crassula, 12/1 Incendo, 12/1 O Ma Lad
14/1 Oceanway, 16/1 Seaside Sizzler, 20/1 Layline
20/1 Lyssio, 20/1 Mezzanisi, 40/1 Toughness Danon.

This is quite a nasty 12f handicap. It is a Class 2 race and it is a long way
from the comfort zone. I had a proper look at the Draw. Its complicated.
I wouldn’t rule any out but I think the best place to be is Stalls 3-12 and its
the very low or the very high stalls that may suffer. KING4S WARRIOR
doesnt interest me. His draw wont help him but he’s 5 and he comes from a
10f race with 1-2 runs this season. No 5 year old did that when unexposed
and I felt he was generally unsafe. Not keen on QUIZ MISTRESS as a filly
with just one run so far this season. She wont find it easy to win again with
just one run. OCEANWAY is another 4yo filly and I didnt see much in her
profile I liked up in distance. I hate LAYLINE’s break of 70 days.
I don’t want INCENDO as an exposed debutant.
Horses going from Class 5 to Class 2 races like O MA LAD
are more often that not outclassed. SEASIDE SIZZLER and
A BOY NAMED SUZI are seasonal debutants. Neither have
terrible profiles and debutants can and do win. I just dont see a good enough
reason to bet either and feel there are some more likely winners.
FIERY LAD looks a bit too risky after such a hammering last time out.

* SPANISH DUKE – I can see why he may want another run
* I can find a winner like him though so he is respected
* COMMUNICATOR – Comfortably the best profile

* Male horses aged 4
* One race this season
* Absent more than a Month
* Between 7-12 career starts
* Coming from a 12f Handicap
* Horses with this profile were 3-4 finishing W W 7 W
* COMMUNICATOR Has this profile

Selection – COMMUNICATOR

4/1 Betfred – blue square – Betfair

The Derby – Epsom 4.00

Not a race I am playing in myself.

My quick views for what they are worth.

The Derby is a shadow of its former self and sadly one
that has deteriorated as a spectacle. I think CAMELOT
will probably win. I have never been sold on BONFIRE
and don’t see enough about him to oppose this favourite.
I don’t like MAIN SEQUENCE having already raced at
12f last time. ASTROLOGY could run well and may be
the danger but I personally wouldn’t oppose CAMELOT
to win it.

Racing Tip For Newmarket

Some thoughts on Newmarket 2.05 today from Guy over at Mathematician Betting

==========================

I have previewed ten races today for full members.

For full service joining info See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

One of them I will pop up on the free blog.

NEWMARKET 2.05

Bbag-sales.de Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 1m2f

2/1 Psychic Ability, 11/2 Rumble Of Thunder, 13/2 Abergavenny 13/2 Spanish Duke,  Kindest, 10/1 Putra One, 12/1 Geneva Geyser 14/1 Bollin Dolly,16/1 Ramona Chase 40/1 All Annalena.

This is a complicated 10f Handicap. There are only 34 of these Class 2 handicaps in August. They’ve all gone to horses younger than BOLLIN DOLLY. My problem with PSYCHIC ABILITY  is having 1 run this year something no horse like him managed to do. I think the following statistic puts this in its right context.

* August has had 824 Handicaps at Every Distance
* Thats 824 races at any Distance in Class 2 and Class 3
* I looked at 3 year olds with 1 run this season
* There was a 3-67 record in these 824 races
* 1 of these came from a Group Class race so ignore that
* Those that had No Group class form were 2-52
* None of them won last time out (0-8)
* None of then won at shorter than 12f (0-42)
* Those with 8st 12lbs or more were 0-36
* Those with Under 5 career starts were 0-29
* That included 7 beaten favourites
* PSYCHIC ABILITY fails all these angles

I think the above statistics show it should be wise to try and get an alternative to PSYCHIC ABILITY who has after all got some Cheekpieces after just 3 runs. RUMBLE OF THUNDER is 4 and  has over 12 career starts and no 4 year old that esposed managed  to win with under 4 runs that season. I think he would have been Far better with another run. ALL ANNALENA also fails that as well. Horses aged 4 with 1-2-3 races this season need to be very  lightly raced and to have had form in Class 2 or higher. All those
that won also finished 1-2-3 last time out and failing those angles  is PUTRA ONE who may lack the backclass to win.

The 34 races show fillies having a 1-34 record and KINDEST is  not going to find this easy when you consider it’s a Handicap in Class 2 and she has never been out of a Class 4 race yet. She has benefitted from the rain but this is a step up in class for her. To  win a Class 2 Handicap you want recent form. The horses beaten  over 10 lengths last time were just 1-109 which puts me against RAMONA CHASE who was hammered last time. Horses aged 3 coming from 3yo handicaps have won these races.  However it is interesting None of them came from 12f races. None of them had an absence of more than a month and none had under 4 runs
that year. SPANISH DUKE has all of those factors against him.

* August has seen 286 Class 2 Handicaps at every distance
* Horses from 3yo handicaps when absent over a month are 4-79
* Those with 7 or more runs had a 0-47 record
* SPANISH DUKE has 9 runs and absent 63 days
* I think he is too exposed for a 3yo
* Especially facing a very unpleasant absence.

GENEVA GEYSER is 4 and has 4 runs this season and I see him  having too much weight for a 4yo with just 4 runs this year and  10st and he fails to make the shortlist.

SELECTION

ABERGAVENNY comes from a 3yo handicap but he has the
recent run and all the right backclass and is lightly raced and  thats a good profile and I dont see a better option. There is a question mark about the ground but there is no obvious reason why he should not appreciate it. I like ABERGAVENNY.

6/1 available widely including Betfred, Bet365, Ladbrokes

7/1 Betfair

check currest best odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-07/newmarket/14-05/betting/

Guy

Horse Racing Tip For Saturday

Saturday Horse Racing Tips from ===> Horse Racing Tips

1 Selection

Leicester 1.55

HUSTLE 5/1 Bet365

Each Way

The horse I want to bet  today
is HUSTLE. I think he will settle early and after a
furlong or so he will be a little outpaced and look
like he is under pressure. He should come back on
the bridle in the last two furlongs and use his turn
of foot to mow these down if Jamie Spencer can
ride him correctly. I dont think there are many
who can win this race. He comes from a good trial
race and will be finishing when many have cried
enough and I think it will take a dissapointing run
for him not be placed and I think he can win.

**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y ‘S R A C I N G

Winner yesterday with REINDEER DIPPIN. He was not
pretty but he won in a workmanlike fashion and quite
a good price in such a small field and I have to be happy
with that. It may have been over hurdles and another
mismashed message but he won and I am keeping it
tight and profitable at the moment and whilst we are
lacking fireworks I am not in bad form. I am in control
of the racing at the moment which is a good sign.

LEICESTER 1.55

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP (CLASS 4)
(4yo+,0-85) 5f218y

9/2 Hustle, 5/1 Pravda Street, 8/1 Kipchak, 8/1 Vhujon,
10/1 Filligree, 10/1 Gift Horse, 11/1 Dancing Maite,
11/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 12/1 Peter Island, 12/1 Sparton
Duke, 14/1 Harlech Castle, 16/1 Charles Darwin, 16/1
Timber Treasure, 20/1 Methaaly.

* This is a 0-85 handicap just short of 6 furlongs
* This race has an 13 year history
* There has been 100 similar races run at other tracks
* Seasonal debutants had a 1-43 record in this race
* FILLIGREE is a seasonal debutant filly
* 4yo fillies first time out like her won 3 races
* All 3 that won had ran in better grade than her
* She is also on a career high mark and not for me
* SPARTON DUKE is also a 4yo seasonal debutant
* These types are 0-18 in this race
* Horses with 1 run this year underperformed
* HARLECH CASTLE does this and comes from 5f
* Those with 1 run this year coming from 5f were 3-83
* None won this race at Leicester
* None anywhere lost as far as he did last time
* HARLECH CASTLE looks opposable
* Exposed horses with 1 run this year struggled
* All 36 that ran in this Leicester race lost
* PETER ISLAND fails that and has a months break
* GIFT HORSE fails this and usually wins later in the year
* TIMBER TREASURE doesnt appeal well beaten over 5f
* Horses dropping from 7f had a 1-48 record in this race
* In other races they did a bit better
* Those with under 7 runs though were just 1-33
* PRAVDA STREET does that
* Horses that won with under 7 runs were different types
* Those like him that ran this year were 1-31
* PRAVDA STREET is opposed
* KIPCHAK has just won over 7f
* All horses that came from 7f races had more backclass
* I didnt think he was safe in this race
* Not up 9lbs in the weights and up in class
* CHARLES DARWIN hasnt run into form yet
* I feel he needs more runs before he wins
* I cant find a winner like DICKIE LE DAVOIR
* He was beaten too far for me last time

SHORTLIST

HUSTLE
DANCING MAITE
VHUJON

* DANCING MAITE has a very solid profile
* I would have been happier with one factor
* No past winner came from the sand as he does
* I would have liked to have seen that
* HUSTLE comes from the same race as 2 past winners
* The 2006 and 2008 winners came from the same race
* VHUJON also ran in that race but has run since
* They were 4th and 5th in that race and hard to split
* VHUJON is not out of this
* My worry for VHUJON is stall one
* Not sure how bad a draw that might be
* I would rather be drawn high though
* My concern for HUSTLE is will he go the pace
* I see him at the back being bustled along
* I see him crusing through in the last furlong
* He will look the winner but will he run out of road
* His last race over 6f was actually sharper than this
* Despite less yardage this Course and Distance is stiffer
* It takes a second more to run over this trip and track
* Thats a massive help to HUSTLE in my view

SELECTION- HUSTLE each way 5/1 Bet365

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s website Click Here ===> Horse Racing Tips