Aintree Horse Betting Advice

A free horse betting tip for Aintree this week from Guy over at the mathematician betting website.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

 

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Looks another classy Saturday and fascinating racing again and I have covered
something from every track this afternoon for the full member message.
The flat is closing down now and much of this is rubbish but there are
still some really intersting races. The National Hunt cards are getting better all the time.
It’s as least as good as the flat today and they
contribute a lot to the 16 Saturday previews but the problem yet again is the
best racing is saved for Saturday and there is simply not enough time to do it all justice.

I am having one full bet for full members today in the 2.30 at Doncaster.
Here on the free blog I am posting up one from slightly further down the full member message.
It almost made full bet status but not quite.

Aintree   1.50

For latest live odss see here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-10-27/aintree/13-50/betting/

Not ready yet for big field Aintree Handicap Hurdles.
I did notice from 7 past renewals that horses that came from Novice races were 0-16
so I would raise a question mark about favourite CAPE EXPRESS as well as KARTANIAN as well.
I want to oppose these. There are several that have acceptable profiles.
AGENT ARCHIE and NAMPOUR look threatsbut I was drawn to EMPIRE LEVANT first time out.
He had no chance at last years festival over 2m 5f as he doesnt stay.
He wants to race over 18f or less on good ground and on a flat track
and these are his conditions and I think he is a far better bet than the favourite here.

Selection

EMPIRE LEVANT 4/1 ( best odds guaranteed )  at Stan James

 

 

Saturday Racing at Newbury

N E W B U R Y

It’s not a pleasant card. Ground will be soft. I will start with the HACKWOOD Stakes at 2.20pm. Its a race where young horses have dominated. Horses aged 3 have won 22 of the last 31 races and that shows how well they have done. That could all change on soft ground. My own thoughts here were WAR ARTIST is a vulnerable horse despite top rated. I wouldnt trust James Eustace to get a 7 year old with a 372 day absence fit on soft ground and whilst he may well win I’d be looking for an each way bet against him. I would ignore the 5f trip jumpers like Madame Trop Vite,
Matsunosuke . FESTOSO isnt for me as a filly. Much will depend on the ground. Many of these are clearly much better on faster ground. PRIME DEFENDER looks a faster ground type. I didnt like EDGE CLOSER. I think there are Three interesting runners. HIGH YIELD comes via 6f handicaps and only two of the last 17 winners did that but one came from the Wokingham like he does and he has a good chance. ICELANDIC comes from a 5f race but that was yesterday and its just possible he has a fitness edge and I wouldnt rule him out much as his chance is imposible to judge and comes with plenty of risk.The strongest runner statistically for me is DONCASTER ROVER. He is a lightly raced 3yo thats just won the same Haydock Conditions race as similar types won before they won this in 2003 and 2005. I gave him a great chance but like you would not be sure he handles soft. DONCASTER ROVER looks a good price and can win if he handles soft.

I havent got a clue what to make of the Fillies Handicap at 2.50. First of all there has only been 1 Fillies Handicap in July in this Class so we have no similar races to draw stats from. Secondly I wouldnt have a clue how to rate COSMOPOLITAN who comes from a Group 1 race into a Handicap. All I can tell you is that I looked at every Fillies handicap in the last 20 years anywhere and
in any class and horses that dropped from Group 1 or Group 2 races were 0-23 and it hasnt happened yet. Personally I would oppose her. I would take out anything with 1 run this year as well. Bottom line is I dont have the angles.

NEWBURY 3.55

WEATHERBYS SUPER SPRINT(CLASS 2)(2yo) 5f34y

11/4 Monsieur Chevalier, 6/1 Above Limits, 6/1 Shamandar
16/1 Here Now And Why, 16/1 Palisades Park 16/1 Reach For
The Sky, 20/1 Archers Road, 20/1 Chocolate Cookie, 20/1 Red Avalanche, 20/1 Star Rover, 25/1 Desert Auction 25/1 Eternal Instinct, 33/1 Existentialist, 33/1 Reddy To Star 33/1 Social Grace, 40/1 Itsthursdayalready 50/1 Kirsty’s Boy, 50/1 Leleyf, 50/1 Strike Shot, 66/1 Blushing 100/1 French Connexion

The Super Sprint is now on its 17th year. On the one
hand you have some excellent stats in the race. On the
other hand you have an impossible looking race. What
I want to do this year is use the same angles that I used
last year as they shortlisted the winner as well as the
2nd and 4th much as I chose the wrong one ! I will use
the same format as last year and end with a shortlist.

* Newbury has had 17 renewals of the Super Sprint
* Horses at 25/1 and more are 1-178
* No past winner had 6 or more career starts
* You ideally want a horse thats ran in Class 3 or higher
* Horses that hadn’t done that with 3 + runs were 0-85
* Males that hadn’t done that  were 0-70
* Horses that hadn’t done that from 6f were 0-48
* Horses that hadnt done thatfrom novice races were 0-33
* Fillies are best and lead 12 wins to 5
* Males that had just under 3 runs were 0-38
* Males that came from 2yo maidens had a 0-58 record
* No past winner came from Nurseries
* Horses that had penalties didnrt score well but won last years
* Horses that came from maidens with 3 or more runs were 0-62
* Horses that came from conditions races in class 4 or lower were 0-64
* Horses that were 2nd or 3rd last time out struggled (1-97)
* Horses with 4 + runs that didnt come from a Group race were 0-129
* No horse was beaten over 10 lengths over 5f last time
* I have 2 horses on my shortlist
* MONSIEUR CHEVALIER – ABOVE LIMITS
* The ground and penalty worries me for MONSIEUR CHEVALIER
* I just prefer ABOVE LIMITS

I thought the handicap at 4.30 was too hard. I would have opposed all the exposed horses that were well beaten over 12f last time or that were aged 7 or more doing this and Capable Guest , Heron Bay and Cheshire Prince look weak because of that. I wouldnt want any horse with under 2 runs that year so Monreale and JASER are out. I didnt fancy Kevkat. I looked at exposed horses that lost by over
10 lengths last time. When having under 5 runs that year they had a 0-74 record and when running over 9f or less a 1-60 record so as FINAL VERSE fails both he is out as well. I would only shortlist 4 horses in Bugaku – King Charles -Safari Sunup -Dar Es Salaam and forced to pick the lightly raced Stoute improver BUGAKU appeals.

The Staying Handicap that ends Newburys card should go to one of the fancied runners. Horses with absences are poor in these 2m races. ABSOLUT POWER -WINGED D´ARGENT have been off too long. CALCULATING isnt good enough on grass. I like fillies that come from winning and the lighter raced the better so I am making ISABELONABICYCLE a positive. SWORDSMAN also  has to be one with a very recent run. I would concerntrate on these.
best wishes

Guy

To Visit Guy’s  site click here free horse racing tips

Championship Football Betting

Saturday Tip From Football Bets

1pt Reading to beat Crystal Palace in the Championship,

6/4 Betfred, PaddyPower, Stan James, Totesport and on Ladbrokes shop coupons (Saturday 21st March 5.20pm ko)

The Royals currently sit in third place in the Championship, four points away from an automatic promotion slot but with a game in hand. Like their promotion rivals Wolves and Birmingham, Reading have struggled for consistency since Christmas, winning one week then losing the next. However, I think they will finish strongly for several reasons.

Firstly, they have strengthened the squad with two excellent signings in the last couple of weeks. Dave Kitson, whose goals fired them to the Premiership a couple of seasons ago, has returned on loan from Stoke, whilst the source of many of those goals, winger Glenn Little, has also rejoined from Portsmouth. They’ve both had a couple of games to settle in now and Kitson scored the winner at Doncaster during the week (His 55th goal in 113 league starts for Reading). Reading played very well in that game and manager Steve Coppell was delighted with the performance.

Reading’s win at Doncaster was Steve Coppell’s 1000th game in management, and this incredible wealth of experience should also stand Reading in good stead for the run in. They have also retained much of the team that won promotion to the Premiership so emphatically the first time round. These players now have added Premiership experience and they have been here and done it before. The return of Kitson and Little should be the catalyst for a strong finish.

We opposed Crystal palace last weekend against Swansea and typically, Swansea lost at home for only the second time all season. A large part of the reason for opposing Palace last week was their position in a mid table comfort zone. Another reason was Warnock’s comments in the run up to that game:

“We need major surgery to take the club forward now – a new influx of fresh blood is vital. The fans need that as much as I do.”

“We’ve all watched and watched as we’ve blown hot and cold. You’ve got to be consistent and we’re so inconsistent.”

“I’m looking towards next season all the time at the moment. One of my teams shouldn’t lose a game when they are winning 2-0 and I’m going to make sure I get the right people in.”

Maybe these comments were designed to get a reaction from his players and there’s a chance it may have worked. However, Palace were then well beaten at Barnsley during the week and Warnock has again written off his team:

“To be honest, I’ve felt it’s been over for a number of weeks. If I’m honest, we just aren’t good enough.”

If Warnock is trying to get another reaction from his players then he is going a funny way about it. You can maybe use this trick once and get something from it, but to write your team off twice in two weeks is surely going to have a negative affect on the players mentality? Palace are now twelve points adrift of the play offs with just eight games remaining. They are actually closer to the relegation zone, without being in any real danger of going down. If I was a Palace player I would be quite irritated by my manager’s comments and would probably be talking to my agent about looking for another club. It is a classic case of the boy who cried Wolf!

Reading beat Palace 4-2 back in August and with the arrival of Kitson and Little, have more than enough quality and motivation, to complete the double.

Minimum price to take – 5/4

The Oracle

To visit The Oracle’s site click here ===> Football Betting Tips