Bold Racing Tip For Lingfield

Our Usual free Saturday Tip from Guy at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Guy is aiming to hit an impressive five winning weekends in a row !

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L i n g f i e l d   2.15

EVEN BOLDER 7/1 + Each Way

I start with a difficult nursery at 12.30 but I feel we
have enough negatives to sort this out. I have made
COMPTON TARGET my selection and had a saver
on Moment In The Sun but I could easily have gone
the other way around. I dont think I will be far away
here but I didn’t really see this bet as selection class.
The short price means SAFARI SUNSEEKER is not
going to be the selection either but a hot profile and
I think he probably will win. I do have a dilemma in
EVEN BOLDER and it is preying on my mind a bit.

In the last two days the best bet in the message won
at 7/1 and 7/2 but only when mentions. Yesterday I
had the first 5 winners at Lingfield and now I come
back to having a selection it would just be so typical
if Lingfield were to bear it’s teeth to throw up some
traffic problems. EVEN BOLDER is often unlucky
and he runs at a track where you need luck so I will
not be surprised I report tomorrow how unlucky he
has been. Emotion and Scare Mongering aside what
a great price he is. Freely available at 8/1 on Betfair
this is the Lowest Class of race he has raced in for
a very long time. He has been beautifully Placed in
this race. He has slipped in nicely into a 0-65 race
for the first time in years and meets opponents he
should be able to beat. We have a Top jockey and
I think he should be closer to 7/2 than 7/1 and he
could be bigger later on. He has to be worth a bet.

L i n g f i e l d   2.15

3/1 Wreningham, 100/30 Griffin Point, 9/2 Royal Bajan
6/1 Dorothy4s Dancing, 7/1 Even Bolder, 12/1 Sherjawy
12/1 Vhujon, 12/1 Welsh Inlet, 25/1 Dells Breezer.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There are 104 similar races at this time of year
* DELLS BREEZER – Opposable with 1 run this year from 5f
* DOROTHY4S DANCING  is hard to read
* She is a 3yo filly and has just 1 run in the last 59 days
* That would worry me for a filly so lightly raced
* I looked at fillies like her with 9-12 runs and Class 4 form
* I found 1 similar winner a long time ago
* That horse had a stone less weight and more recent run
* DOROTHY4S DANCING – Not a negative but not for me
* I am uncomfortable with her profile
* VHUJON – Doesnt really offer me enough
* Not hard to see him getting outpaced here
* Not sure he is capable of taking this over 5f
* GRIFFIN POINT is 4yo filly from a 5f race
* I found 3 winners with that profile but all had more backclass
* None like GRIFFIN POINT has between 13 and 20 runs either
* She has 17 runs and isnt quite right
* I like the recent run just not the limited backclass
* SHERJAWY is a exposed 7 year old
* He lacks a recent run within 2 weeks
* There were 4 winners but 3 had Listed or Group class backclass
* Those like SHERJAWY who didnt were just 1-45
* That winner ran better than he did last time and with less weight
* SHERJAWY -  Not an impressive profile
* He is well handicapped though and not a negative

S h o r t l i s t

* ROYAL BAJAN is 3 from a 5f handicap
* He lacks a recent run and has Class 4 form before
* I found 2 winners like him but with 2 differences
* Both winners ran closer last time than he did
* Both had 8st 11lbs or less and he has 9st 6lbs
* ROYAL BAJAN is not a negative but not quite right
* I’d like less weight and a more recent run
* ROYAL BAJAN has had just 1 race in the last 94 days
* Thats not a lot for a 5f sprinter
* WELSH INLET is an exposed 3yo filly
* She comes from a 5f handicap and has Class 4 form
* I found 2 recent winners bit both ran within 2 weeks
* None with her profile tried to win absent over 2 weeks
* WELSH INLET has a Neutral profile
* WRENINGHAM is an exposed 6yo winning last time
* I found a couple of winners with a similar profile
* One had far more backclass but he ism just about ok
* This is a career high mark though and he is beatable

Selection

* EVEN BOLDER is an 8yo from a 5f race
* All winners his age and over did the same thing
* They all finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time
* EVEN BOLDER beaten 3.5 lengths is not technically right
* Ignore that as he was badly drawn and badly hampered last time
* He could and should easily have been much closer
* This is also a drop in class for him
* When has this horse ever had only a 0-64 field to beat
* EVEN BOLDER has a massive chance for me
* He has spent almost his entire career in better class
* I would see him as a serious runner for all his frustrations

Nb 7/1 was available earlier when full members got this.

Best price now 13/2 at VC

Welsh National Tips

Tips and Analysis for the Welsh National from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

CHEPSTOW 1.45

Coral Welsh National Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m5f110y

4/1 Synchronised, 6/1 Maktu, 8/1 Dance Island
10/1 Watamu Bay, 14/1 Arbor Supreme, 14/1 Dream Alliance
14/1 Exmoor Ranger, 14/1 Giles Cross, 14/1 Silver By Nature
16/1 Ballyfoy, 20/1 Ballyfitz, 20/1 I´moncloudnine
25/1 Old Benny, 25/1 Royal Rosa, 33/1 Bench Warrent
33/1 Theatre Dance, 40/1 Dashing George, 40/1 Flight Leader
40/1 Magic Sky, 50/1 Eric´s Charm.

The Welsh National is a Handicap Chase over an extended
3m 5f. Usually run in December the race has been moved to
January after the recent cold weather.
That leaves a dilemma about whether to rely on statistics for this
and all other races  when they have been run in December and
especially when all  horses are a year older once we get to January.
In the end the best plan for me was to look at all similar races over 3 months

* December – January – Febuary have 65 Handicap Chases
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases between 3m 5f and 4m
* Thats 65 of these races in Class 2 – Listed – Grade 3

There are several of these that look quite simple to eliminate from consideration.
ERIC´S CHARM and ROYAL ROSA do not appeal and look too old with no
winners aged 11 or more since 1976. FLIGHT LEADER – MAGIC SKY are also passed
over as too old. DASHING GEORGE has completely a wrong
preparation. BENCH WARRENT didnt do much last time and
I wasnt sure he will stay in the ground. All his sires wins over a distance like this in
the class are on firm ground and he looks unsafe to me. OLD BENNY looks on the
road to Cheltenham and probably wont be fit here. I looked at all 10 year olds
that ran in these races with 1 run that season. The only horses that won with the
profile were last time out winners. He was beaten too far and it may be the
same as last years race when he was beaten miles after 1 poor run last year.
BALLYFOY is facing a similar problem as a 10yo with 1 run this year and he
doesnt have much backclass. I’d question his stamina. I’d question his suitability to the track too.
THEATRE DANCE may struggle  coming from 2m5f and he has not achieved much this season.
ARBOR SUPREME may pop up but I dislike his profile as an  exposed horse and beaten easily
on his only run this year. He  looks badly handicapped to me and may be on the road back
to the Grand National. The problem with GILES CROSS apart  from Stamina and a
testing absence is his last run.
Very few  winners managed to win these sort of races without finishing last time and I felt he was unsafe.

* SYNCHRONISED doesnt convince me completely
* My argument is his weight and his class
* He has 11st 6lbs and No form in Graded races before
* I looked at horses with no previous runs in Graded races
* Those that had 11st or more had a 0-29 record
* Almost all past winners of the race had GradedForm before
* 13 of the last 14 winners had no more than 11st weight
* He has to overcome that weight stat without graded form
* SYNCHRONISED has a stiff task for me with his weight
* SILVER BY NATURE was 2nd in last years race
* He had 10st 2lbs last year yet has 11st 12lbs this year
* Thats a massive jump considering he’s run just twice since
* SILVER BY NATURE fails a lot of angles
* He has a horrible weight with 11st 12lbs
* He ran badly last time out as well
* Exposed with 1 run this year he looks wrong to me
* All these are serious problems for an exposed horse
* DREAM ALLIANCE won this last year with 10st 8lbs
* This year he has a crippling weight of 11st 12lbs
* He is not in the same form as he was last year
* He fails multiple angles including a poor last run
* I think its too much of an ask to win again
* WATAMU BAY is very inexperienced with 3 chase runs
* Going back to 1990 the winners had these Chase runs
* 10-9-4-4-16-7-24-8-14-17-8-13-22-12-12-9-14-18
* WATAMU BAY will be the least experience winner in ages
* WATAMU BAY also comes from a Novice Chase
* Only 1 of the 65 winners managed that
* That horse was older and had more experience
* He also won within 2 weeks and had a stone less weight
* 11st 3lbs is a tough ask for a Novice Chaser
* Dont forget 13 of the last 14 winners had 11st or less
* I don’t like his chance when inexperienced with weight

There is a case statistically for I´MONCLOUDNINE. The
big problem is Chepstow is a track he has never experienced
before. It would worry me his wins are on sharp flat tracks and most
were right handed too.  I´MONCLOUDNINE also suffers from a lack of backclass.
Almost all past winners of the race  had Graded Form before and none with
13 or more runs failed  to have form in a Graded race before.
I nearly shortlisted him but I couldnt get past the Track suitability.
What swung it was the half brother who only won right handed on fast tracks.

SHORTLIST

EXMOOR RANGER – DANCE ISLAND
MAKTU  -BALLYFITZ

* DANCE ISLAND has 4 Chase starts
* There were 2 recent winners with only 4 chase runs
* Statistically I can turn a blind eye to some of his problems
* I can not match him exactly to any of the 65 winners
* Partly as he has an absence but so do many
* Partly  as he is 8 and comes from 3m or shorter
* I don’t feel he has a bad profile just not a good or safe one
* I would have to question whether he will stay this far
* I think there is a serious stamina doubt in this class

* EXMOOR RANGER has a good profile
* You would be worried about stamina on this ground
* I dont see him getting home on this ground
* Noy with a tough weight and a stiff handicap mark

* MAKTU has a decent chance with strong track form
* Ground – Consistency and a decent weight all in his favour
* I would have liked more backclass
* He is unexposed over fences though
* He has never been out of the 1-2-3-4 in all 8 chase starts

BALLYFITZ is technically too old as an 11 year old but as
he wouldnt have been last week it seems we should overlook
that.I ran his profile in all the 65 other races.
There were 3  winners aged 11 that had 1-2 runs that season like him.
None of them were as absent as long as he is but we have to overlook
that when so many others have absences because of the harsh winter.
BALLYFITZ ran well in this race last year.
I felt he’d been overprepared last year.
He had a hard race in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham and then took in the
Hennessy as well. That was more than enough but he then went and won over
hurdles at Sandown as well and this may have been too much for him.
This year he has been far better prepared and now he gets to race off a 10lbs lower mark.
That will be a serious help as will a better preparation and he has only has 12 starts over fences.
I’m overlooking his age as he would have been a
10 year old last week and this is a career low mark for him in a Chase.
His run last year suggests he should at least place.
I feel the best option is to bet both horses in a split stake bet.

SELECTION

MAKTU – Win Bet 13/2  ( now 6/1 Coral  Bet365 BoyleSports )

BALLYFITZ – Win Bet 16/1 + Bet365  BoyleSports  William Hill