Message From www.RacingTrends.co.uk

 

Thursday 16th April

 

Horses that are positives in more than one area will be noted at the end of the message.

 

Value horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 5 years would have shown good profits in the long term:

 

Sills Vincero (5.15 Wolverhampton)

Milne Bay (6.15 Wolverhampton)

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton)

 

Draw section

 

Ripon 1 mile (3.45 today) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 onwards):

 

bottom third of the draw 12.5%

middle third of the draw 18.8%

top third of the draw 68.8%

 

It seems from the stats that horses from the top third have a very significant edge. However, it should be noted that there have only been 16 handicap races of 10 or more runners in the past four years which is a small sample. Having said that, traditionally high draws over this distance do have a decent edge.

 

Best drawn runners – Trumptoo (drawn 11), Johnmanderville (drawn 10), Firebet (drawn 9), On Offer (drawn 8)

 

 

Ripon 5f (5.30 today) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f there have been 15 races in the past four seasons. Many of these races have seen the field split into two groups as the ground nearer to each rail is quicker than the centre of the course. This fact is demonstrated by the fact that 7 of the 15 winners were drawn in either the two lowest, or two highest stalls. Hence there should be an advantage to horses drawn 1, 2, 15 and 16.

 

Well drawn runners – Circuit Dancer (drawn 1), Rio Sands (drawn 2), Cheshire Rose (drawn 15), Miss Daawe (drawn 16).

 

 

Market information

 

2.00 Ripon; 2.25 Newmarket; 4.20 Ripon; 4.45 Newmarket – POOR VALUE FAVOURITE – Maiden races on turf in March / April when favourite is debutant; sr 26%; roi -24.5%. Overall figures for such runners is 32% and -9%

 

Trainer section

 

Positive trainer stats: please note certain stats will be repeated each day for several horses. It is simply a way of illustrating the type of horse a particular trainer has done consistently well with in the past.

 

Cheviot (2.35 Ripon)M Jarvis – March and April – horses off the track for more than 6 months; SR 26.1%; ROI +37%

 

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket) – John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

 

Close Alliance (3.35 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

 

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

 

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Balaagha (4.45 Newmarket) – M Jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 29%; ROI +75%

 

Balaagha (4.45 Newmarket) – M Jarvis – March and April – horses off the track for more than 4 weeks SR 27.2%; ROI +56%

 

Perpetually (5.20 Newmarket) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% ROI +22.7%

 

Justcallmehandsome (7.45 Wolverhampton) – D Ffrench Davis on all weather – 7lb claiming jockey on board – SR 22.7%; ROI +394%

 

Positive trainer course stats:

 

John Gosden has an excellent overall record at Newmarket since 2000. In all Newmarket races he has an overall strike rate of 19.4% for profits of +33.6% – this comes from over 580 runners. This record means all his runners deserve a second glance – his runners today are listed below:

 

Race time

Horse

1.50 Newmarket

Militarist

1.50 Newmarket

Illusive Spirit

1.50 Newmarket

Reportage

3.00 Newmarket

Prohibit

3.35 Newmarket

Close Alliance

4.10 Newmarket

Virtual

4.10 Newmarket

Tazeez

4.45 Newmarket

Christina Rossetti

4.45 Newmarket

Chicora

5.20 Newmarket

Nawaadi

5.20 Newmarket

Muraweg

 

HOT TRAINERSR Fahey, P Chappell Hyam, J Gosden, J Boyle, B Hills,

P Evans, J Best

 

Horses with decent course records

 

Common Diva (7.15 Wolverhampton) – 3 wins, 1 placed from 8.

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton) – 3 wins from 4

 

 

Horses noted in two or more sections

 

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton)

 

Please note that when evaluating trainer stats, we need two completely different types of positive stat to be included in this section. Hence if we include the Newmarket stats for John Gosden we also have the following horses noted in two sections:

 

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket)

Close Alliance (3.35 Newmarket)

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket)

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket)  

 

——

 

Big race trends (last 10 years)

 

3.00 Newmarket – Abernant Stakes

 

Positives

 

9 of the last 10 winners finished 5th or better LTO.

9 of the last 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the betting LTO.

4yos have won 5 of the 10 races (from 35% of the total runners)

Trainer Richard Hannon has saddled 3 winners and 2 placed from 12 runners

3 of the last 10 winners have won from the front (2 were clear leaders, the other disputed the lead).

7 of the last 10 winners raced at Newmarket or Doncaster LTO.

 

Negatives

 

Priced 16/1 or bigger – 0 from 54 (however, there were three winners at 14/1).

 

3.35 Newmarket – Craven Stakes

 

Positives

 

Richard Hannon (3 wins), Barry Hills (2 wins) and Sir Michael Stoute (2 wins) should be respected.

9 of the last 10 winners ran over 7f LTO.

6 of the last 10 winners ran at Newmarket LTO.

 

Negatives

 

American bred horses have provided just 1 win from 23 runners (compare with British breds – 5 wins from 30; Irish breds 4 wins from 18).

Horses priced 2/1 or shorter have provided just 1 winner from 8.

Racing Trends
Thursday, 16-Apr-2009

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