How To Pick The Gold Cup Winner

After timing this I know but there is still opportunity to learn from succesfull race analysis.

This was one of the better Gold Cup bits of analysis I read.

Guy seems to have  a bit of knack for the Gold Cup as he made a very good and reasoned case for Imperial Commander at 8/1 when he won last year.

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CHELTENHAM 3.20

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

100/30 Imperial Commander, 9/2 Long Run
5/1 Kauto Star, 11/2 Denman, 11/1 Kempes
12/1 Pandorama, 14/1 Midnight Chase
20/1 Tidal Bay, 20/1 Weird Al, 25/1 Albertas Run
25/1 China Rock, 33/1 Neptune Collonges
33/1 What A Friend, 66/1 Carruthers.

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* Like many I want to oppose the old guard
* KAUTO STAR and DENMAN are opposed
* Both are now 11 year olds
* No Gold Cup winner was that age since 1969
* I take the view both are now vulnerable to improvers
* DENMAN especially looks weak with just 1 run this season
* KAUTO STAR only has 2 runs and doesnt appeal
* I would have to oppose this ageing pair
* PANDORAMA doesnt look safe to me
* You ideally want between 6 and 14 Chase starts
* PANDORAMA has had just 5 and pulled up early in one
* He has ran just twice this year which is a bare minimum
* Having Pulled up early in one of those races I’d worry
* PANDORAMA lacks form at the track as well
* Short on experience it’s not a Gold Cup winners profile
* MIDNIGHT CHASE has been a revelation last Autumn
* He comes from a Handicap and 2 recent winners did that
* That said both those winners had Grade 1 Form before
* Every winner since 1992 won or placed in a Grade 1-2 race
* MIDNIGHT CHASE has never ran in that class before
* Rated 163 without that form I’d question his class
* Coming from a Handicap before Christmass won’t help
* The form of that win has hardly worked out
* With the National in mind I think he will be found out
* CHINA ROCK looks outclassed
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal much either
* CARRUTHERS has shown this race is too much for him
* WEIRD AL only has 5 Chase starts
* That would make him the least experienced winner in ages
* I dont like him with 2 runs this year and a break

POSSIBLES

* KEMPES was impressive in Ireland last time
* He is peaking and could offer more improvment
* Unusual type as he started his career on the Flat
* The last winner to do that was back in 1979
* Thats not a good sign and makes him harder to fancy
* So to does the lack of form at Cheltenham
* One run here over Hurdles and well beaten in that
* His rating is just below the class usually required
* He will probably run well without winning
* WHAT A FRIEND doesnt look a likely winner
* His profile is too good for a 40/1 chance though
* His rating suggests he isnt good enough and he may not be
* It wouldnt be a complete shock if he won though

SHORTLIST

TIDAL BAY
IMPERIAL COMMANDER
LONG RUN

* IMPERIAL COMMANDER is the reigning Champion
* He has had just 1 run this year in a very light season
* His trainer has recently quashed that saying he will win
* He does have a brilliant record Fresh
* Winning last year and going well fresh gets him shortlisted
* He is 10 now and thats older than ideal
* I ignore that statistic as its a race full of older horses
* He is still ideally exposed with 12 Chase starts
* I’d have liked one more run this year but I like his chance
* I think he is one of 3 with outstanding claims

* TIDAL BAY deserves to take his chance
* He is high class and should be suited to the race
* Statistically he is older than ideal aged 10
* There has been a 10yo winner and plenty placed
* I wouldnt rule him out based on that statistic alone
* Not with so many others with bigger problems
* After all 3 or the 4 market leaders are that age and more
* You want 6-14 Chase runs
* He has had 16 Chase runs and thats only 2 more than ideal
* He has never Fallen over fences in his life
* He has a consistent record as well over fences
* TIDAL BAY looks outstanding value at 22/1

* LONG RUN is clearly Top Class and good enough
* The issue is whether he is good enough at the track
* He is 6 and the last 6yo winner was 1948
* It’s not that relevant as hardly any have tried
* Those that did included The Fellow beaten in a photo
* One think I would mention is that he is not technically 6
* He wont become 6 until April unofficially
* The Fellow was 4 months older than he is
* I see him as easily shortlistable and in the 1-2-3
* I dont like the fact he is not actually a full 6yo yet
* There is also the track and many say he doesnt like it
* I find that ridiculous after evidence of just 2 races
* Far too early to write him off at all
* His run in last years Sun Alliance was excusable
* He was statistically Repulsive in that race
* His chance was never as good as it was portrayed
* I have to forgive him that run and he did place
* In the Sun Alliance last year he was inexperienced
* Two days ago we opposed Time For Rupert in the RSA
* He had a better statistical profile than Long Run last year
* LONG RUN had 2 runs and Time For Rupert 3
* LONG RUN also came from 2m to 3m last year
* Time For Rupert didnt have to go up in trip
* LONG RUN was also a 5yo last year in that race
* There are just 2 winners aged 5 since 1946 in the RSA
* LONG RUN didnt have the allowances they had
* His run in 3rd last year was nothing short of magnificent
* Thats the stick many are beating him with this year
* His other defeat here was first time out this year
* That wasnt too bad a run either on his debut
* He demands the benefit of the doubt

SELECTION

LONG RUN 5/1 Win Bet

TIDAL BAY 22/1 + Win Bet

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Free Racing Tip For Saturday

Another comprehensive analysis piece today from Guy Ward over at the mathematician site.

To visit his site click here ==>  Horse Racing Tipster

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HAYDOCK 3.20

Totesport.com Grand National Trial
(Handicap Chase) Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m4f

11/2 West End Rocker, 13/2 Carruthers, 7/1 Mobaasher
8/1 King Fontaine, 8/1 Silver By Nature, 9/1 Le Beau Bai
9/1 Nicto De Beauchene, 10/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Sarde
20/1 Ballyfitz, 25/1 Etxalar, 25/1 Madison Du Berlais
33/1 Jaunty Journey, 40/1 Sound Accord.

* This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase.
* Haydock’s has had 14 renewals of this race

This is a Grand National trial and I think we should split the runners
into two categories. First of all the in form horses in the race that ran
very well last time out and who are likely to be here to do their best.
Secondly the horses well beaten last time that might be using the race
to put the finishing touches on their Grand National chance.
Thats certainly looks like it has happened in the past as only In Form horses win this race.

* Last time out winners won 6 past renewals
* Last time out seconds won 4 past renewals
* Last time out 1st 2nd or 3rd won 12 of the 14 renewals
* Only 2 of the past winners were not placed last time
* One of these was 5th last time but had a long absence
* Another Fell at the 1st on their last run but won before it

I think you need to be against the horses that didnt run
very well last time. SILVER BY NATURE looks one to
oppose beaten too far last time and its interesting only 2
of the 14 winners carried 11st 4lbs or more. I would also
be against MADISON DU BERLAIS and CARRUTHERS
both high weights and not doing enough last time. Harder
to rule out CARRUTHERS. He isnt too unlike the winner
in 2008 (Miko De Beauchene) who had won the Chepstow
Welsh National and won this after a break aged 8 absent a
fair while. CARRUTHERS though has a longer break and
was well beaten last time and is only a small horse who is
best in a very small field and has never been placed in any
prior handicap. SOUND ACCORD – JAUNTY JOURNEY
and ETXALAR are all horses that failed to do enough last
time out. I dont see BALLYFITZ as straight enough to be
winning and you’d expect him to be laid out for Aintree if
he gets in that race. The only winners from a Novice race
ran within 2 weeks and MAJOR MALARKEY has got 66
days absence and No past winners came from any Novice
Handicap to win. I’ve looked at every Handicap Chase in
March and Febuary in Class 2 and Higher and thats all 329
races at any distance in those grades. If you look at 7 year
olds that have No Graded form before and also have 13 or
more career starts you do not find many winners and none
were like SARDE. None had as long an absence or won at
this distance and none managed to win having only 2 runs
that season and I dont see SARDE having enough to win
this. There is an interesting angle about backclass because
12 of the 14 winners of this race had past form in either
a Listed or Graded race before. KING FONTAINE doesn’t
have that. He seems to have plenty of weight for a horse
without it. The only winners of this race without Listed or
Graded form had much less weight than he does and having
been raised 15lbs for his last win he has quite a bit to prove
and his trainer has said the 15lbs rise was harsh.

SHORTLIST

WEST END ROCKER
MOBAASHER
NICTO DE BEAUCHENE
LE BEAU BAI

The issue with WEST END ROCKER s whether he has
recovered from a hard race at Warwick. Similar winners
of that race finished 4 6 11 in this race. Statistically he  is
respectable and earns a shortlist place comfortably.
I like MOBAASHER as he is a promising chaser who
has a progressive profile and looks well handicapped on his
hurdles form. Against him is he hasnt raced over fences this
season yet and I hope it doesnt catch him out.
It’s interesting NICTO DE BEAUCHENE’s full brother has
won this race before much as he was classier. He lacks a
run in Graded Class but both winners that lacked that did
look similar with a months break and a good last run and
I see NICTO DE BEAUCHENE as a serious runner. The
other option is mud loving LE BEAU BAI who finished
3rd in this race last year and should be thereabouts again.
The overnight rain swings me towards LE BEAU BAI.

SELECTION

LE BEAU BAI 9/1 in various spots
Ladbrokes , Sky , Bet365, William Hill etc

Each Way

Hennessy Racing Tip

Hennessy Racing Tip

This fairly comprehensive Hennessy analysis was provided by Guy Ward.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
Sky VC Tote