Football Tip From Ex Bookmaker

Football Tip From Ex Bookmaker

Phil spent many years working for a bookmaker called PageBet

He turned down several offers of work there as an odds compiler in order to focus on his own personal betting.

He now also earns a bit extra helping members over at the Football Bets site win cash from the bookmakers.

His long term record there is pretty impressive.

See Football Betting Results

Below is a copy of one of his tips for today.

As you can see he is short and sweet and gets straight to the point.

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A great result last night as two of our bets won and we got stake back on the other for a 2.6pts profit.

Today we have just the one small bet from League One…

OVER 2.5 Goals Double
Hartlepool v Peterborough OVER 2.5 Goals
Carlisle v Notts County OVER 2.5 Goals
This Double pays out 9/4 at Bet365 Bluesquare Sportingbet 0.5pts

————————————————————————

Out of interest the tips from yesterday he was referring to are copied below.

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A day of Euro2012 qualifiers today and thats where we head with two singles and a win treble…

Northern Ireland v Italy (7:45pm)
Northern Ireland DRAW NO BET at 3/1 Coral BoyleSports 14/5 Bwin Unibet 0.5pts

( stake returned as match was a draw )

Ireland v Russia (7:45pm)
OVER 2.5 Goals at 6/4 William Hill 11/8 Several firms 1pt

WON

WIN TREBLE
Belgium TO BEAT Kazakhstan (5:00pm)
FYR Macedonia TO BEAT Andorra (6:00pm)
Germany TO BEAT Turkey (7:30pm)
This Treble pays out 11/5 at William Hill and Victor Chandler 0.5pts

WON

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Racing Tip For Carlisle

Free tip form Guy over at mathematician betting is below

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Tips

================================

Today is probably the quietest Saturday we will get
for a few months. No Flat cards at all. Kempton is an
awful card on the sand. That just leaves an all chase
card at Carlisle and Haydock where neither card has
a maiden or Novice Hurdle. It’s a very drab saturday.

Our season proper will start on Bank Holiday Monday.
Next week will be a significant week. The Flat starts to
take off and get busy and the Grand National meeting
at Aintree dominates so I can start to give more bets
and have much more choice and variety something I
just have not had this week or today which is awful.

Done what I can looking at a few races today but we
have not been offered anything interesting and Not
close to having a Bet today. There are a few horses
with good solid profiles today but not exceptionally
good ones. Reluctant to go with any horse today at
the top of the message. I’m not going to let the worst
Saturday Cards in months seduce me into a serious bet but
now the Flat is back we will get a lot busier from now on.

If stuck for inspiration today however consider the following

CARLISLE 4.00

More Live Football Betting At Totesport.com
Novices´ Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+)  2m4f

13/8 Mr Woods, 3/1 Finney, 7/2 Youngstown
7/1 Ginolad, 15/2 Heez A Steel.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Chase. There has been 453 similar
races at this time of year. I dont have a big problem with
FINNEY’s absence or the fact he is so lightly raced this
season but any horses that won with his profile had not
come from a Handicap. I couldnt find one from a Novice
Handicap and I wasn’t that impressed with his profile.

* YOUNGSTOWN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not coming down 12f in 17 days
* HEEZ A STEEL has a poor profile
* Exposed horses from hurdles struggled
* None dropped in trip and I thought he was unsafe
* GINOLAD has a difficult profile to read
* He is 10 and most of his career was in Australia
* He won the 2008 Australian Grand National
* Good start to his English career but he has regressed
* I couldnt rule him out but I couldnt find a similar winner
* I thought MR WOODS had the strongest profile

MR WOODS

* Males winning 2m 4f Novice Chase last time
* 13 or more career starts
* 5-6 runs this season
* Running within a month
* There were 20 horses with that profile and 10 won
* The 10 losers finished 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 F
* MR WOODS has a strong profile

5/2 at many including  PaddyPower S James BoyleSports Bet365

Course Favourites Stats

This is a small snippet from a comprehensvive
client message from Dave Renham over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS

This section looks at the stats for favourites at courses in certain
race types

(data taken from 2002 to 2008)

Beverley favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
46
175
26.3
-£29.69
-17.0
3.20,
4.25
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
99
381
26.0
+£1.36
+0.4
2.45,
3.55
3yo+
maidens
24
59
40.7
-£4.23
-7.2
5.00
3yo
only maidens
12
26
46.2
-£4.02
-15.5
2yo
maidens
51
125
40.8
-£0.96
-0.8
2.15
Carlisle favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
26
87
29.9
+£3.07
+3.5
9.05
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
35
184
19.0
-£41.77
-22.7
7.05,
8.35, 9.35
3yo+
maidens
11
16
68.8
+£2.31
+14.4
3yo
only maidens
4
12
33.3
-£4.63
-38.6
2yo
maidens
33
72
45.8
+£7.84
+10.9
7.35
Haydock favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
46
167
27.5
-£21.25
-12.7
2.20,
4.35
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
86
387
22.2
-£34.40
-8.9
2.55,
5.10, 5.45
3yo+
maidens
31
49
63.3
+£21.61
+44.1
3yo
only maidens
22
41
53.7
+£4.64
+11.3
2yo
maidens
51
140
36.4
+£2.45
+1.8
Leicester Favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
36
132
27.3
-£13.31
-10.1
2.30
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
60
246
24.4
-£7.02
-2.9
3.35,
4.10
3yo+
maidens
24
47
51.1
+£1.85
+3.9
5.20
3yo
only maidens
23
43
53.5
+£11.64
+27.1
2yo
maidens
59
157
-£37.60
-20.28
-12.9
Nottingham Favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
49
183
26.8
-£15.98
-8.7
8.50
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
75
313
24.0
-£28.74
-9.2
6.20,
8.20, 9.20
3yo+
maidens
21
50
42.0
-£8.55
-17.1
3yo
only maidens
36
85
42.4
-£6.96
-8.2
2yo
maidens
61
184
33.2
-£30.12
-16.4
7.20,
7.50
Sandown favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
53
208
25.5
-£19.36
-9.3
4.55,
5.30
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
70
250
28.0
+£26.14
+10.5
2.40
3yo+
maidens
15
26
57.7
+£7.85
+30.2
3yo
only maidens
10
28
35.7
-£2.75
-9.8
2yo
maidens
42
102
41.2
+£8.36
+8.2

Racing Tip For Haydock

Racing Tip For Haydock From www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Haydock 2.55

DANNY ZUCO

Each Way 9/2 CanBet   Ladbrokes   VC

I see todays selection as just a routine one and it
was closer to being a no bet day than an account
bet day. We knew this particular Saturday was one
where we had no Flat racing on Grass and that our
options would be limited and its possibly the worst
Saturday card of the season.

The only flat card today is the All Weather card
at Kempton and I would be hard pressed to name
a track that I dislike more. I detest the place with
a passion. I dont like my angles there. I dont like
the way races are run there and the place leaves
me cold and lacking confidence there. That said I
have a few races I’m previewing and have done as
much as I can there as its the only flat card.

**********************************************

T O D A Y ‘ S   R A C I N G

N A T I O N A L    H U N T

Given that Kempton is the only Flat card today to be
confident of a great message I needed some excellent
jump cards and I dont feel I have that today and I am
dissapointed with the National Hunt cards especially
as none of these have any history to fall back on and
it wont be easy to nail anything today.CARLISLE has
a tedious all chase card as they always do these days.
Big fields make the meeting even harder. In the end
I felt only 1 race was worth a quick preview.

HAYDOCK throws us a nasty card. Not many races I
wanted to preview there but I will do the 2.55pm race.

HAYDOCK 2.55

Blue Square “FIXED BRUSH” NOVICES’ HURDLE FINAL
BONUS RACE (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) 2m4f

3/1 Burton Port, 6/1 Danny Zuko, 6/1 Fredo, 6/1 Rouge Et Blanc, 8/1 Sparrow Hills, 10/1 Fiendish Flame, 10/1 Magellan Straits, 12/1 Border Reiver, 12/1 Quinz, 12/1 Riddleofthesands, 16/1 Broken Beau, 20/1 Karmadice

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 31 similar races at this time of year
* Thats 31 races in Class 2-3-4 over 19f – 22f
* I want to oppose horses that are up in distance
* Horses from 16f and 17f had a 4-116 record in 31 races
* Those aged 5 that came from 17f or less were 0-36
* FIENDISH FLAME fails this and has other problems
* No horse from a 16f race had more than 11st 4lbs
* MAGELLAN STRAITS also comes from a 16f race
* We know horses aged 5 doing that are 0-36
* FREDO is also a 5yo from 2 miles (0-36)
* KARMADICE is out coming from a 16f race
* RIDDLEOFTHESANDS comes from 16f
* He is also a 5yo and all 36 doing it lost
* No horse that came from 16f or 17f had under 5 runs
* All 27 that tried failed
* ROUGE ET BLANC fails that and is only a 4yo
* QUINZ is a bit too inexperienced for me
* None of the 31 winners came from a maiden hurdle
* SPARROW Hills fails that
* BROKEN BEAU also fails that
* BORDER REIVER is a 5yo unplaced last time
* No 5yo finished unplaced in a novice hurdle and won
* There look to be only 2 strong runners in this race
* BURTON POINT – DANNY ZUKO
* BURTON POINT was 4th in a Graded Hurdle last time
* Horses coming from Graded races were 2-5
* Both came from the same race as he did
* DANNY ZUCO has won a novice hurdle easily last time
* He gets 25lbs from BURTON POINT and thats a lot
* I think I would prefer DANNY ZUCO because of that

SELECTION – DANNY ZUCO 9/2 Each Way

besy Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk