Saturday Racing Tip for Wolverhampton

WOLVERHAMPTON  3.30

William Hill LINCOLN TRIAL (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-105) 1m141y

4/1 Flipando, 11/2 Flowing Cape, 8/1 Capricorn Run,
9/1 Ace Of Hearts, 10/1 Mahadee, 10/1 Whitcombe Minister,
12/1 Bolodenka, 12/1 Extraterrestrial, 14/1 Flawed Genius,
14/1 Nightjar, 16/1 Lucky Dance, 16/1 Samarinda, 33/1 Raptor.

* This is a 0-105 Handicap
* This race has been ran 12 times before
* Most winners were lightly raced aged 4 and 5
* Horses aged 4 and 5 won 11 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won just 2 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses that were aged 6 or more were 0-47
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – CAPRICORN RUN -ACE OF HEARTS
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -FLIPANDO – LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses that didnt run within 2 weeks were 0-53
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – ACE OF HEARTS – EXTRATERRESTRIAL
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-39
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – MAHADEE – SAMARINDA – LUCKY DANCE
* This race usually goes to either a seasonal debutant
* Or a horse with 2 or more runs since January 1st
* Every past winner came from a handicap (Others 0-38)
* SAMARINDA
* None of the winners came from 6f or shorter
* NIGHTJAR – FLOWING CAPE fail that
* There has been 322 Class 2 handicaps at 8f
* Thats 322 races anywhere and any time of year
* In 322 races horse from 6f races won just 2
* They had a 2-106 record and both winners had long breaks
* Those that ran within 10 weeks were 0-80
* Based on these trends I would shortlist the following

MAHADEE
WHITCOMBE MINISTER
FLAWED GENIUS

* MAHADEE fails one trend above
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 were 0-39 in this race
* Ignore that statistic for this horse
* He is only just exposed with 21 career starts
* His Saddle slipped last time and he was heavily eased
* MAHADEE comes from a 7f race at Lingfield
* The 2007 and 2008 winners of this came from that race
* MAHADEE has every chance of making that 3 in a row
* WHITCOMBE MINISTER is interesting
* He’s a similar profile to 2002 winner Dayglow Dancer
* The one worry is he comes from 12f
* That was last year though and he is unexposed
* FLAWED GENIUS is another with a fine chance

SELECTION

Given the seasonal debutants are 4 year olds I have
to go with MAHADEE each way coming from the best trial
race but the best saver may be Whitcombe Minister

Mahadee is currently 9/1 Ladbrokes, Stan James and William Hill

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Saturday Horse Racing Tip

Every meeting gets the go ahead today. Some very

interesting and significant Jumping action. Much of it is more Positioning for

Cheltenham. Plenty of races that don’t make any appeal to me as they throw up

short priced favourites or impossible to asses handicaps.

The racing selection for the blog this weekend however is

at Lingfield.

Lingfield 4.05

TITAN TRIUMPH Each Way 100/30 at Corals

There seems to be a school of though that TITAN

TRIUMPH is unproven in this class and has a lot to do. You can definitely make that argument but horses trying exactly what he attempts today have a strong record. I felt he was highly impressive last time and that he meets a mixed bag of unfit and badly treated horses. He will need luck in running as they all do
here but I thought he had a strong chance and is good enough to win.

LINGFIELD 4.00

William Hill JANUARY SALE – BET NOW! HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m

5/2 Titan Triumph, 3/1 Atlantic Story, 5/1 Red Somerset, 8/1 Ace Of Hearts,

8/1 Samarinda, 10/1 Capricorn Run, 16/1 Kayak, 20/1 Fajr, 20/1 Swiss Act.

* This is an 8f handicap for horses rated 0-108

* Its a class handicap and there’s been 51 similar races

* ACE OF HEARTS has to go aged 10 absent 107 days

* Thats asking too much as he has a career high mark

* FAYR won this race last year but had a recent run

* He is now a 7 year old absent 56 days

* I don’t want an older horse with a long absence like him

* KAYAK is out as a 7yo absent 42 days

* I don’t want SWISS ACT as he has ran once since June

* CAPRICORN RUN is not too bad statistically

* Not many horses come via conditions races though

* RED SOMERSET comes from that same race

* He is also reasonably fine statistically

* RED SOMERSET has never won in this class though

* He has never won from this handicap mark either

* He has never won off higher than 86 or above 0-90 class

* Today he is off 89 and facing a 0-108

* SAMARINDA is fine statistically but has a tough mark

* He has never won from his current mark

* ATLANTIC STORY has some issues to overcome

* None of the 51 winners came from Listed class as he does

* He is also a 7 year old with a 31 day absence

* He also has a career high mark to overcome

* TITAN TRIUMPH looks the progressive improver

* He has just won his last 4 races

* He has just won 0-74 – 0-75 – 0-80 and a 0-84 handicap

* This is clearly a step up in Class

* To counter that he is a fast improving well handicapped horse

* I looked at horses in 51 races with similar profiles

* Horses that won their last 2 races in Class 3 or lower

* Horses that came into these races like that scored well

* When they came from 8f or longer handicaps they were 6-14

* The Males that tried it starting under 12/1 were 6-12

* This suggests in form improvers can bridge the class gap

* TITAN TRIUMPH is my choice to improve past these

* With many potentially unfit and badly handicapped

* TITAN TRIUMPH may be able to win in this class

Racing advice from Guy at Mathematician-Betting

To visit Guy’s website click here ===> Horse Racing Tips

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