Saturday National Hunt Favourite Statistics

Saturday, February 13th, 2010 at 11:59 am  
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COURSE FAVOURITE STATS NATIONAL HUNT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Ayr favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

handicap chases

43

130

33.1

+£3.90

+3.0

2.40, 3.15, 4.25

novice / beginner chases

30

51

58.8

+£5.63

+11.0

2.10

handicap hurdles

37

119

31.1

-£8.71

-7.3

3.50, 4.55

novice hurdles

38

74

51.4

-£6.82

-9.2

1.40

Newbury favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

non handicap chases

29

61

47.5

-£5.80

-9.5

2.30, 3.40

novice / beginner chases

20

37

54.1

-£1.14

-3.1

1.30

handicap hurdles

26

88

29.6

+£5.35

+6.1

2.00

non handicap hurdles

53

118

44.9

+£6.42

+5.4

3.05

novice hurdles

40

90

44.4

+£3.77

+4.2

4.15

bumpers

10

43

23.3

-£9.52

-22.2

4.45

Warwick favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

handicap chases

32

84

38.1

+£13.19

+15.7

3.20

novice / beginner chases

30

55

54.6

+£3.99

+7.3

1.45, 2.15

handicap hurdles

30

84

35.7

+£19.42

+23.1

2.50, 4.30

novice hurdles

30

79

38.0

-£19.42

-24.6

3.55

The above is just a small snippet of the horse racing statistics from the Saturday email of the RacingTrends service.

For those of you who are interested in self improvement .. a Free Horse Racing Course is also availalbe from RacingTrends.

Doncaster Racing Tip

Saturday, February 6th, 2010 at 12:54 pm  
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No Account Bet

Twelve races previewed today however for full members.

I have picked a random one for todays free blog.

DONCASTER 4.35

Blue Square Supporting Marie Curie Cancer Care
Maiden Hurdle (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 3m110y

7/4 Wayward Prince, 7/2 South Leinster, 11/2 Penylan Star
10/1 Bally Sands, 10/1 Basford Lady, 12/1 Eros Moon
12/1 Florarossa, 14/1 Supreme Plan, 20/1 Collyns Avenue
20/1 Saddlers Mount, 25/1 Maska Pony, 40/1 Hi Ho Silvia
150/1 Secret Gift, 200/1 Just Chrissie, 200/1 Rosie Larkin.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle over 3m
* January and Febuary have had 60 of these races.

The 60 similar races point to the big two runners at the head of the betting.
If you take horses that come from Bumpers you find a poor 2-102 record.
None of them had just one run (0-39) or were aged 5 (0-22) so PENYLAN
STAR fitting both those stats is a Negative. EROS MOON also fails that and
is a negative. Female horses have a poor 2-118 record. None of them had
under 5 runs. None were Unplaced last time out and those that came from
2m 4f or shorter were 0-58 so It’s easy to oppose both BASFORD LADY
and FLORAROSSA. I can not find a winner like MASKA PONY but he’d
probably be best outsider. I cant find a horse like BALLY SANDS in 60
races beaten so far last time so recently and surely it’s asking a lot for him to
overcome that so soon. No horse was beaten as far as SADDLERS MOUNT
after just 1 run. The outsiders look opposable.
I see this between 2 horses. SOUTH LEINSTER  is respected
but I fancy WAYWARD PRINCE to win

Selection -WAYWARD PRINCE

7/4 when advised to full members earlier but now best priced 11/8 at Betfred

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk