Saturday racing message from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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A longer than usual Saturday blog post today.

I do have an Account Bet today in the 5.15 however
I have held that back as full member only.

What you have here are a lot of stats and thoughts on many other races.
This is typical of the extra supplementary info clients get daily from me.
Many clients ignore it and wait for Account Bets.
Others use it as extra info in their own personal betting decission making process.

Selections noted treat as “If you forced a fiver into my hand and gave me a free bet”

It is only the full Account Bets however I get heavily stuck into myself.

T O D A Y ‘S   R A C I N G

Heavy Rain today will probably change the ground
at several tracks and that looks the most important
issue today. I have a few National Hunt things to say
but there isnt much over the Jumps and after that it
is a look at a few races on the Flat.

A I N T R E E

The 1.05 is a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2 Miles. There
has been 47 of these races at this time of year. What you
have to avoid in these races is exposed horses. Interesting
that 46 of the 47 winners were lightly raced wikth under 21 career starts.
I would rule out European Dream – Front Rank and Premier Dane.
ST BOREAS HAWK is impossible to get
a grip on absent 2 seasons and more so I’m neutral about him.
No 4yo had the weight INDIAN GROOM has and managed
to win. THUMBS UP is a 4yo from a Novice Hurdle. Two
winners did that and they had 5-6 runs and he’s just 4 runs.
Almost forgivable but a big weight wont help. None of the 47 went to
seasonal debutants from Novice handicaps so I oppose SUNSETTEN
who may need the race according to his trainer.
MAGELLAN STRAITS is also opposed. I didnt
like the profile of HARRY TRICKER. I doubt STELLINO
or AMAZING KING is about to win a Class 2 race. Given
the choice I See four potential winners.  THUMBS UP has
chances. SIR BOREAS HAWK can win if fit. ZANIR and
NAMPOUR are also potential winners. Final choice would
be THUMBS UP each way at 5/1.

The 2.50pm is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 3 Miles.
You will be in the dark with several seasonal debutants
in the race. The best profile for me could be the recent
winner DUNBRODY HOUSE. I looked at all similar 3m
Novice Handicaps. Horses that won a Novice handicap
Hurdle in the last month had a 9-19 record and take the
ones that had 11st 2lbs or less and that improves to a
7-10 record. Those aged 5 like him were 1-1. Those
who came from 2m 4f as he does were 3-5. This is a
step up in class though and thats my main worry. It
may be best to go with a Place Only bet.

C H E P S T O W

The 1.20pm  is a weak renewal of the Persian War Hurdle.
There is no ideal type which would be a horse with multiple
runs this year. We havent got that. This is a Graded Hurdle
and I would have to oppose AITEEN THIRTYTHREE as
a horse from a Bumper with just 1 career run. No similar
race went to a horse like that. I would prefer a horse from
a Grade 1 hurdle like REVE DE SIVOLA much as it was only
a 4yo Grade 1 Hurdle. REVE DE SIVOLA is my choice.

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NEWBURY 1.30

Hildon EBF Maiden Stakes (Div 1) (CLASS 4) (2yo) 1m

7/2 Sir Pitt, 9/2 Latansaa, Total Command, 13/2 Aultcharn,
13/2 Multames, 7/1 State Fair, 11/1 Sea Of Heartbreak,
11/1 Tappanappa, 20/1 Boston Blue, 20/1 Sweet Secret,
25/1 Green Moon, 25/1 Mount Athos, 40/1 Baoli, 40/1
Goldtrek,  40/1 Oak Leaves, 66/1 Big Talk, Green Army,
100/1 First Post.

Starts off with a Big field Maiden for 2 year olds over a
Mile.  I want to oppose some of the fancied runners in a
race I can only guess in. STATE FAIR has had  4 runs
already and hasnt won. This is a Grade 1 track and if you
have not won by your fourth race you must have some
limitations. Very few Grade 1 track maidens go to a horse
so experienced. In fact those doing just this and stepping
up in trip were just 1-36 and none that exposed won this
race. I think his draw in stall 3 is a problem too as the last
19 races here with 9 + runners show only one horse drawn
1-2-3 winning. I would be inclined to go for a lighter raced
fancied runner as an alternative. Male horses with 1 run that
come from maidens over 7f when beaten more than 10 lengths
in that race in the last month have a 2-175 record.
Thats not good and  both TOTAL COMMAND  and
AULTCHARN have that to overcome so I dont see
them as good enough options. Marcus Treggoning hasnt
had an unraced 2yo win at a Grade 1 track at this time
of year so LATANSAA has issues as well. If I had to be
with any of these it would be SIR PITT. I think its a race
for a split stake bet to maximise the chances of a return.
SIR PITT is a win bet to half your stake and the other
half on STATE FAIR to place in the hope his experience
is enough to stop 3 horses beating him. I’m guessing here.

SELECTION

SIR PITT – Win Bet
STATE FAIR – Place Bet

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DONCASTER 1.50

Lincoln Restaurant Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 4)
(3yo+ 0-80) 1m2f60y

9/4 Starla Dancer, 5/1 Veiled Applause, 6/1 Baltimore Jack,
13/2 Nevada Desert, 9/1 Admiral Dundas, 12/1 Maybeme,
12/1 Northern Jem, 14/1 Middlemarch, 16/1 Agapanthus,
16/1 Punch Drunk, 16/1 Taaresh, 25/1 Desert Vision.

This is a 10f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses. There’s
been 177 similar races this time of year. If you look
at 3 year old fillies that come from 3yo handicaps
they dont have a great record. Those that ran in the
last 7 weeks had a 1-52 record in the 77 races. This
is not a strong profile and STARLA DANCER and
PUNCH DRUNK have that against them. I would
not make STARLA DANCER a negative though. It
would have been more promising if horses like her
had a better record but that sole winner in the 1-52
record did win last time and recently as she has so
she’s very similar to that winner. DESERT VISION
looks outclassd. NEVADA DESERT isnt for me. He
won a Class 6 handicap on the sand last week but this
is a much better race and horses his age score poorly
and none won coming up from such low grade races
and I wouldnt see him as a great bet.  TAARESH has
been off far too long. MIDDLEMARCH looks too
old with his absence. AGAPANTHUS is trained by
Barney Curley and you never know where you are
with him. Statistically as a 4 year old that was well
beaten last time and with just 4 runs this season he
has a weak profile and I am taking him on. Fillies
aged 3 that have not won before like MAYBEME
had a 2-73 record and those beaten 2 + lengths last
time were 0-64 so I would avoid her as well. I dont
want NORTHERN JEM. I have found horses like
him well beaten last time out and he was hampered
badly last time but he has only had 1 run since July
and I think he is underraced and may not be at his
peak. I would shortlist these

SHORTLIST

ADMIRAL DUNDAS has a strong profile and is a
potential winner if the rains stay away. I feel the
same about VEILED APPLAUSE another who is
better on faster ground. Bearing in mind the rain
thats falling I wouldnt want to be with either of
them. BALTIMORE JACK is another who has a
decent profile but concerns on the ground. With
the ground issue STARLA DANCER may well be
sticking with.

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NEWBURY 2.05

Totesport 0800 221 221 Stakes
(Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes)
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f

5/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 11/2 Pastoral Player, 6/1 Audacity Of Hope,
6/1 Classic Colori, Burnett, 9/1 Cadley Road, 11/1 Critical Moment,
12/1 Dubawi Phantom, 12/1 Red Badge, 14/1 Carnaby Street,
16/1 Pleasant Day, 25/1 Exceedingly Bold, 33/1 Art Excellence, 40/1 Navajo Chief.

If you look at the 20 years of results in the Horris Hill
Stakes you see that horses from 6f races have struggled.
Overall in 20 years they are 3-48 but it masks the fact
that only 1 has won since 1992. Horses from a 6f race
have never won this race with under 3 career starts as
all 12 lost and None have won from a 6f maiden. I would
see horses like this as questionable at beat and all wrong at worst.
CLASSIC COLORI is from a 6f maiden with just 1
run and no past winner did that.  PASTORAL PLAYER
has the same problem. None of the last 20 winners were
like IVER BRIDGE LAD coming up from a 5f race so I
oppose him. CARNABY STREET is rejected as well as
he comes from a 6f Maiden. No past winners came from
an 8f maiden like ART EXCELLENCE and BURNETT.
I think the best profiles come from those at bigger odds
like CRITICAL MOMENT – AUDACITY OF HOPE or
CADLEY ROAD. The issue with these three runners is
Soft ground as they all would have doubts about them
on softer ground. I feel the same way about another in
PLEASANT DAY. He may want in faster. In the end
I decided to risk RED BADGE. He has improvement to
find but he is experienced and will handle the ground.
I will go with RED BADGE at 14/1.

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DONCASTER 2.20

Coral.co.uk Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)  5f

11/2 Rulesn´regulations, 7/1 Cheveton, 10/1 Cape Vale,
10/1 The Nifty Fox, 11/1 Judge ´n Jury, 12/1 Fathom Five,
12/1 Invincible Lad, Quest For Success, 16/1 Equuleus Pictor,
16/1 Wi Dud, 20/1 Hamish Mcgonagall, 20/1 Northern Dare,
20/1 Parisian Pyramid, 20/1 Waffle, 25/1 Canadian Danehill,
25/1 Captain Gerrard, 25/1 Fullandby, 25/1 River Falcon,
33/1 Excusez Moi, 33/1 Matsunosuke.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* We have 47 similar races at this time of year
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time need opposing
* Of those that ran within 2 weeks had a 0-55 record
* Ignore all horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Oppose all exposed horses absent over a month
* Ignore all horses with under 5 runs or under 2 runs this year
* Avoid horses aged 9 or more
* Horses from 6f handicaps were fine
* They must be Class 2 handicaps (Others 1-79)
* Horses from 6f are intersting and won 16 races
* However those who were 1st or 2nd last time struggled
* They had a 0-38 record
* I’d oppose horses 1-2 over 6f last time
* I would oppose horses aged 7 or more from 6f
* Exposed horses from 5f races need 7 + runs this year

SHORTLIST

THE NIFTY FOX isnt too bad statistically but a career
high mark wont be easy to overcome. The horse behind
him last week EQUULEUS PICTOR is fine statistically.
WI DUD has a strong profile. HAMISH MCGONAGALL
looks excellent statistically.  CAPE VALE is also strong.
INVINCIBLE LAD was 3rd over 6f just 3 days ago and
may have a fitness edge. In 47 races there was just one
horse that ran within 4 days dropping back from a 6f race
and that horse came second at 10/1 coming from a class 4
handicap. I will go with him. INVINCIBLE LAD  is the
suggestion.

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NEWBURY 2.35

Totesport.com St Simon Stakes
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m4f5y

100/30 Harbinger, 5/1 All The Aces, 5/1 High Heeled,
5/1 Tastahil, 15/2 Chock A Block, 10/1 Enroller,
16/1 Drill Sergeant, 20/1 Illustrious Blue, Halicarnassus,
25/1 Heliodor, 25/1 Merchant Of Dubai.

The St Simon Stakes (2.35) is always a complicated race
over 12f. I am just going to follow the trends in the race
and see what I am left with. Horses dropping in distance
have struggled with a 2-50 record and no 4 year old did
that so MERCHANT OF DUBAI and ALL THE ACES
have that to overcome. TASTAHIL drops from 2 miles
and just one past winner  did that and he didnt have the
long absence  TASTAHIL has. HELIODOR doesnt look
good enough up in trip. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE looks too
exposed and short of runs this year. HALLICARNASSUS
isnt my first choice. I would shortlist these 5 runners.

ENROLLER – DRILL SERGEANT -HARBINGER
HIGH HEELED – CHOCK A BLOCK

I Like ENROLLER’s profile a lot. Horses aged 4 that had
13 + career runs from 12 races had a 4-10 record  in this
race. The downside being they ran better than he did when
running with that profile last time. DRILL SERGEANT
has a similar profile and whilst technically a bit exposed
he comes from the Godolphin Stakes which both the 2008
and 2007 winners did and its a key trial. CHOCK A BLOCK
won that race and has to be shortlisted as does HARBINGER
but you can argue that CHOCK A BLOCK and HARBINGER
would be the least experienced 3yo Male to win. All the past winning
3 year olds had at least 5 career starts and this pair have just 4 runs.
HIGH HEELED is a 3yo filly and they’ve a brilliant record in this race.
The only problem statistically is all past winning 3yo fillies were both lighter
raced than her and had lighter seasons as well.In the end there was just one
niggling thing wrong with every runner. I decided to go with a 3yo filly with
recent form and ability to handle the going so I suggest HIGH HEELED
each way around 6/1.

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DONCASTER 2.55

Racingpost Stakes Registered As The Doncaster Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

9/4 Citrus Star, 11/4 Corporal Maddox, 100/30 Layla´s Hero, 10/1 Tropical Treat,
11/1 Tomatin, 12/1 Archers Road, 12/1 Walkingonthemoon,
20/1 Colonel Mak, 25/1 Singeur, 50/1 Al Naouwee.

The Doncaster Shield is a trappy Listed Class race for
2 year olds. I would ignore all horses that had not won
a race before. I would oppose all horses from 5f races.
No horse won with 13 or more career runs. Oppose all
horses well beaten last time. Oppose all horses with 7
or more runs if absent over a Month. This leads to a
shortlist of two horses.  I dont feel I have broken into
the race well enough. For the record the two shortlisted
are LAYLA’S  HERO – CORPORAL MADDOX. I feel
LAYLA’S HERO has stronger form and think he wins.

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NEWBURY 4.55

Watch The Jump Season On Racing UK Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)1m2f6y

4/1 Rainbow Peak, 5/1 Namibian Orator, 11/2 Cill Rialaig,
8/1 Bab Al Salam, The Fifth Member, 12/1 The Which Doctor,
12/1 Wintercast, 14/1 William Blake, 16/1 Dr Livingstone,
16/1 King Charles, 16/1 Sohcahtoa, 16/1 Spell Caster,
20/1 The Cayterers, 25/1 Bound By Honour,
28/1 Salden Licht, 33/1 Kaolak.

* This is a 10f handicap for 0-94 rated horses
* There has been 15 renewals of this race
* There has been 53 similar Class 2 races elsewhere
* There has been 89 Class 2 and Class 3 handicaps

Horses from 8f  races havent done that well. In the 89
similar races no horse came from 8f or less with under
5 career starts and NAMIBIAN ORATOR has only 3
career runs and looks opposable. SALDEN LIGHT is
from 8f and doesnt appeal with just 2 runs this year.
SOHCAHTOA is a 3yo coming from an  8f handicap.
When these horses had 9 or more runs as he does they
were just 1-56. BAB AL SALAM was beaten too far in
3yo handicap last time. DR LIVINGSTONE comes out
wrong absent 50 days and with just 3 runs this year. I
feel the same about SPELL CASTER a filly absent 105
days. Exposed horses aged 7 like THE CAYTERERS
scored badly and need a very recent run. In last years
race WILLIAM BLAKE was beaten a long way and I
dont want him this year as no exposed 4 year old won
a similar race down in distance. Horses aged 3 that lost
by 10 + lengths last time were poor. When having 13
or more runs they were 0-39 so KAOLAK has to go.
I couldnt find a winner like THE WHICH DOCTOR
beaten so far last time. BOUND BY HONOUR fails
similar angles. The only lightly raced 4 year olds to
win were horses that won last time out and those that
didnt were 0-31 and WINTERCAST fails that and it
may not have been a good enough run last time.

SHORTLIST

KING CHARLES comes out well. Exposed 5 year olds
down in trip with a recent run had a 2-5 record and he
looks strong in several areas. If you look at exposed
5 year olds that have under 7 runs this season coming
from 10f races as THE FIFTH MEMBER does you get
a 6-19 record. Those that were 1-2-3-4-5 last time out
improved that to a 6-14 record so he has to have a big
chance. My reservation with THE FIFTH MEMBER is
a career high mark and no wins outside Class 4 or lower.
CILL RIALAIG has an excellent profile as a lightly
raced 4 year old filly winning last time out. Those like
her with under 9 runs were 2-2 in the 89 races. Back in
2005 the winner of this race (Khyber Kim) had only 2
runs and came here from a Conditions race and thats a
very similar profile to RAINBOW PEAK so he has to
be shortlistable as well. It may be significant that the
last 7 winners were aged 3-4 and unexposed which is a
pointer to RAINBOW PEAK and CILL RIALAIG off
my shortlist. In the end given the ground I decided to
chance KING CHARLES each way around 20/1.

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