Soccer Corner Statistics

One of the options available when soccer betting are the corner betting markets.

Two popular markets are

Which Team Will Score Most Corners

and

Total Corners in a match ( usually set out as over or under a certain figure such as 10.5 corners )

Betting volume on these markets is not as high as other key markets and as such bookmakers can often be a bit lazier as a result. This opens up opportunity for the sharp minded punter.

The article below from the football bets site provides an interesting summary of how corners counts in matches tend to differ across the five major European soccer leagues.

Are you  curious as to which team across Europe wins more corners than any other?

That information is detailed as well.

See Soccer Corner Statistics

 

 

Over Under Soccer Bet

Louise the lady soccer tipster who uses her maths degree to battle the bookmakers with had a great weekend last weekend with five out of seven winning over under soccer bets.  ( Rather than try and be a jack of all trades she is firmly focussed on the over under betting market )

Read the rest of this entry

Football Bets For Saturday

A couple of free football tips today courtesy of ex bookmaker Phil
from the football bets service.

As you can see Phil is a man of few words.
His advices are based on his assessment of true odds versus
odds available at the bookmakers.

If you want to read waffle about football, buy a newspaper.
If you want to win betting on football .. focus on the numbers.

QPR v Aston Villa (3:00pm)
QPR To Win at 11/10 (2.1) PaddyPower 21/20 (2.05) Coral William Hill Ladbrokes Betfred Tote 1pt

Watford v Barnsley (3:00pm)
Watford To Win at 5/6 (1.83) William Hill Pinnacle 4/5 (1.80) Stan James Victor Chandler 1pt

To visit his site see here ==> Football Bets

 

 

 

 

Soccer Betting Ten Commandments

Gambling on soccer is a mugs game, you can’t beat the bookmaker, right?

Wrong.

There is good money to be made from soccer betting if you stick to some simple
basic rules.

Rule 1 – This is a golden rule, you must shop around for the best value. Open accounts with as many on line bookmakers as possible, they nearly all offer free bets to entice you to open accounts with them.

You should have no loyalty to any bookmaker and the sole reason you should be placing a bet with one is because you are getting the best price. People who just use the nearest high street shop haven’t got a chance. Most Bookmakers have a profit margin of around 10% for football matches but because different bookmakers offer different prices it is still possible to swing the odds in your favour.

Rule 2 – Work out a staking plan. Once you have identified a value bet the next question is “how much should I bet?”. The answer to this question is determined firstly, by how confident you are about the bet, and secondly, by how much value you think you are getting. For example, if you toss a coin in the air you have a 50% chance it will be heads and a 50% chance it will be tales. The correct price for each outcome should therefore be evens. But what if somebody offered you 3/1 that the coin would land on heads, you are obviously being offered huge value and if you repeated this bet ten times you would have to be incredibly unlucky not to be in profit at the end.

Whatever staking plan you have worked out, this would obviously be a maximum bet scenario, you could still lose but you have secured huge value and if you consistently bet when the odds are in your favour you theoretically will make money in the long run. Your staking plan should accommodate the fact that despite the huge value any individual bet may lose.

Rule 3 – Never, EVER, chase. We’ve all been there, you’ve had a terrible day and lost a lot of money, the live Spanish game is about to come on and it’s the last game of the day. “Time to get my money back”, you say to yourself and you have a silly bet on Real Madrid at terrible odds. To make things even worse Madrid concede a last minute goal to level the game. They then go and miss a penalty deep in injury time, what a disaster, your days losses just got worse! To make money betting on soccer it is crucial that you have discipline. Just because a game is on TV doesn’t mean you have to bet on it. If you didn’t identify a value bet in the game at the start of the day then don’t bet on it. We all have bad days and there will be plenty of good value opportunities to get your money back in the next set of fixtures.

You must be selective with your bets. If you do feel the need to bet on every game you watch then keep your stakes small unless you have identified value.

Rule 4 – Stick to singles or doubles. It is hard enough predicting the outcome of one match let alone five.

Bookmakers love to promote accumulator bets because they know the more selections you choose the less likely you are to win. No matter how many teams you pick there will always be one result that lets you down. Many people are attracted to these bets by the possibilities of winning a lot of money from relatively small stakes. You will find that if you increase your stakes a little and stick to singles and doubles your profits will increase long term.

Rule 5 – Pay close attention to team news. An injury to a key striker or a suspended captain can sometimes greatly swing the odds in your favour. As a general rule the higher the level of soccer the less affect team news will have as the top clubs have large squads full of quality players. The lower league teams however, operate with much smaller squads and can have their chances of winning badly affected by key players being injured or suspended. Be warned however, team news can be misleading. Some clubs actively give out false information in order to gain an advantage over their opponents so it is dangerous to base your bet on team news alone.

Rule 6 – Choose which markets you bet on carefully. The best
markets to bet on are generally the match odds and some of the goals markets.
Halftime/full time, correct score, first goal scorer and other similar markets
have a higher profit margin built in by bookmakers and therefore generally offer
poor value. This is not always the case though and occasionally you will find
the odd juicy price in these markets.

For example, injuries may result in a midfield player starting up front making him much better value to be first goal scorer. Asian Handicaps are another market which you should make yourself familiar with. The bookmakers profit margin on these markets is a lot lower and so straight away you have more chance of finding value.

Rule 7 – Bend the rules in your favour. There are a number
of things you can do to achieve this. Firstly make sure you pick up a coupon
from your local shops at the start of the week. The prices printed on these
coupons are compiled up to a week ahead of the game and are often cut online
or on the phone. However the big two on the high street will hold the prices
printed on these coupons so you can often find a bigger price on a shop coupon
than you will be able to get online or even with the Exchanges. If there is
a big move for a certain game then they might impose restrictions of between
£50-200 per customer, but you should still be able to get on. Likewise,
when there is a move online and the match odds are cut you will sometimes find
that a bookmaker has forgotten to cut the “draw no bet” or maybe the
“halftime / full time” price.

It is also worth keeping an eye on long term markets when games are being played as you wouldn’t believe how sloppy some bookmakers can be at suspending markets. This can be especially useful near the end of the season when it is clearer which teams might win the league or be relegated.

Rule 8 – Keep records of all your bets. It is important to do this so that you know exactly how much money you are making or losing. It will help you decide on your staking plan and make it clear that you should stop if you aren’t making money in the long run.

Rule 9 – Stick to what you know and don’t bet on leagues you haven’t been following. You can only get an edge on bookmakers if you have better knowledge than they do on a certain league. If you don’t usually bet on Italian soccer but Milan are playing Inter on Channel five, then don’t bet on it. Accept that the bookmaker is likely to know much more about the two teams than you do and that, as a result, you are unlikely to beat him with bets on this league.

Depending on how much time you have free to study each league, you should be careful not to overstretch yourself. Pick one or two leagues out and concentrate on building up your knowledge of the players, managers, derbies and grudge matches. Most odds compilers will have several leagues to cover and may not have time to concentrate fully on each one.

Rule 10 - Don’t get carried away by short term trends and always be mindful of the bigger picture. This applies both to the leagues you are betting on as well as your own results. For example, if a team has won four games on the bounce then ask yourself “are they winning these games because they are a good team or is it just a lucky run?”. If you believe they are a good team then keep backing them but if you think its a lucky run that is likely to end soon, then you may well get the opportunity to back one of their opponents at an inflated price. Man City’s excellent run of results at home at the start of the season was a good example. City won their first nine home league games but if you thought this run was going to continue indefinitely then you would have lost your next six bets on them. Another good example is when one of the top teams is having a good run in several different competitions. The media tend to get carried away and soon start suggesting that this club can win all four trophies. Bookmakers latch on to this and ridiculously short prices for a quadruple appear in the Racing post prompting bets from hundreds of mug punters.

You should also be wary of “short termism” when it comes to your own bets. In any given season you will have good spells and bad spells and you should not get carried away with either. Stick to your staking plan and don’t start betting bigger and bigger because you are having a good run. Don’t go spending all your winnings either, keep a betting fund and only withdraw from it once you have gone over a certain level. You may need it to fall back on during a bad spell. Likewise, don’t get too upset by a bad run of results. Analyse your bets to see where you may have gone wrong but don’t be panicked into any rash changes. Bad spells can be very disheartening, but if you know your stuff and have made money in the past, then you probably aren’t doing too much wrong and the next good spell is just around the corner. The end of the season is the best time to take stock and analyse your performance over the season as a whole.

These rules should help you to tip the odds in your favour. It is possible to make money from betting on soccer but you will need to invest time and effort. It should be enjoyable too, a moneymaking hobby if you like. If you find the bad spells too upsetting or stressful then maybe it’s not for you.

————————————————————————–

This advice was provided by Football-Bets.co.uk and written by a professional
soccer odds compiler with many years experience working for major uk bookmakers.

The Football-Bets site have several ex bookmakers providing clients with profitable
betting advice on uk and european soccer. Worth a look is their short free course
aimed at increasing your understanding of soccer betting.

Football Tip & Each Way Betting

This soccer betting advice actually comes from a service that
is predominantly a horse racing service.

Paul Ruffy who runs it has a good reputation in my book.
I have been receiving his tips for some time now and can confirm
he runs an honest service.

He specialises in exploiting each way betting.
This is one of the few mathematical chinks in the traditional bookmakers armoury.

He puts out the odd bonus sports bet like the below as well.

If at all interested in his service ..well the good news is he
offers a FREE TRIAL.
It is not very obvious on his site but click the link below scroll to page
base and hit the subscribe button.
You will then note the free trial option.

Click Here ==> Visit Paul’s Site

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Bonus Bets

Aston Villa v Arsenal 12.45
Villa are unbeaten at home but Arsenal have a very good record at Villa
Park. The visitors are without Fabregas but Villa have a small and
inexperienced squad and are missing 5 midfielders in total. The “kids” that
have stepped in for Villa have done well, especially against Man Utd, but
probably the brightest of these young stars, Albrighton, is out today along
with Hogg. And Utd were way under par that day. The result will most likely
mean a midfield threesome of Bannan, Clark and Ireland. It is essentially a
makeshift team that Villa are fielding, they’ve been struggling to score
all season and I feel the likes of Arshavin, Van Persie, Nasri and Chamakh
will out-play them today. Arsenal have had a bad week, but as usual their
troubles tend to get blown out of proportion, up until the 50th minute
against Spurs things were looking very good, and previous away wins at
Everton and Wolves were more in character. The Gunners have the best away
record in the league.
Arsenal 2% stake @ 5/4 Coral
Arsenal -1 (asian handicap) 1.5% stake @ 21/10 Bet365

That’s my strongest football advice of the weekend, but I also think Stoke
are too big at 11/4 against City, that Chelsea will win at Newcastle, and
Tottenham (If van der Vaart plays) are decent at 11/10 v Liverpool. Arsenal
can also be backed at 8/13 in the “draw no bet” market with Bluesquare.
That price again looks value given that they haven’t lost at Villa Park
since 1998.

50/1 Winner At Newmarket?

50/1 Winner At Newmarket?

A specualtive  long shot each way suggestion for newmarket today from The Mathematician. To visit his own site click here ==> Horse Betting

————————————-

NEWMARKET 1.50

Victor Chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, 10/1 Main Aim
12/1 Cat Junior, 12/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing
20/1 Duff, 20/1 Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George 25/1 Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 20 renewals since 1990
* 18 of the 20 winners had between 9 and 14 career runs
* Horses with 13 or more starts struggled
* The only ones that won had Grade 1 form before
* Male 3 year olds are just 1-37 with 13 or more runs
* No 3 year old has won this down in distance

SHORTLIST

* DELEGATOR has 1 run this season
* A Few past winners had 2 runs but none had 1
* Thats the biggest problem he faces
* BLUE ANGEL has a surprisingly good profile
* She is very similar to the 2007 winner
* She is  close to 2 other winners
* In a race of shocks she could be interesting
* 3 Year Old fillies with 7-12 career starts
* Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
* At least 6 runs this season
* These horses had a 4-6 record in this race
* The last 2 that won (2007 and 2000) were 20/1
* BLUE ANGEL is a possibly shock  winner.

It looks a ridiculous shout to go with BLUE ANGLE who
is 50/1 and more on Betfair and multiple bookmakers but the last 10 renewals have
seen horses win a 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 and 16/1 and they
were impossible to find as well so she may be able to nick
a place. I’m not keen on any of the alternatives so with a
risk of making myself look stupid I will go with her.

Definately more chance of losing with this bet than winning with it but the name of the game is long term edge and at 50/1 I sniff some value.
SELECTION

BLUE ANGEL 50/1 + Each  Way Bet365BetfredLadbrokesStan James

Scottish Football Bet From Bookmaker

Scottish Football Bet From Bookmaker

This comes from Tammboy an ex bookmaker odds compiler
who is now providing Scottish soccer tips at the Football Bets website.

Tammboy is one of three soccer experts there.
Combined all three have racked up a profit of about £10k to £100 level stakes
since circa November 2009

For further info on how to get regular football betting advice advice from two
ex bookmakers and an ex player manager visit the football bets website.
Click here ==> Football Betting Tips

———————————————————
Stenhousemuir vs. East Fife

Scottish Division 2 – East Fife WIN @33/20 (vs. Stenhousemuir) – 2 star bet (Bet365)

East Fife drew against Livingston last week and are one of the stronger sides in the division.
Expect them to be competing for 2nd place along with the likes of Alloa.
Although some results haven’t worked out, it’s clear that they’ve been scoring freely
even against the better teams. Stenhousmuir are an in and out side and although they’re
better at home the percentage play is in backing East Fife
(which are still value at 13/8 with Betfred and Ladbrokes) as they should be favourites for this tie.

Saturday Soccer Betting

Saturday Soccer Betting

A few football bets for you today from Phil over at the Football Bets site

Phil used to work in a bookmakers and in fact turned down work as an football odds compiler to focus on his own betting.

He is one of several expert soccer advisors over at the football bets website.

I can’t promise success today with these bets but following his advice is a shrewd move long term as he has a very good record for strike rate and profitability.

============================================

Morning Guys 2 singles and a mixed treble for today
Which all look decent value.

Birmingham v Arsenal
OVER 35 booking points at evens extrabet 1pt

Celtic to win with a clean sheet v Kilmarnock at 10/11 BoyleSports 1pt

Mixed Treble
Arsenal to get most corners v Birmingham
Chelsea to get most corners v Aston Villa
Shrewsbury to beat Darlington

This bet pays 21/20 at williamhill have 1pt on it

============================================

Scottish Football Betting Tip

This advice comes from Tammboy over at football-bets.co.uk

Tammboy is an ex soccer odds compiler who has worked for several major bookmakers and spread betting firms.

His speciality is the Scottish Football

Stranraer WIN  (vs. Elgin City) – 1 star bet.

@13/8 Ladbrokes or slightly better 7/5 Bet365

Elgin City vs. Stranraer  Scot Div 3

Elgin city have been great away but not so good at home, they’ve had their confidence shaken in recent games by loses to Forfar and Livingston. To compound that, they’ve also got a bit of a bug running through the team. While Stranraer are no world beaters, they’re a team capable of winning this and 13/8 represents decent value.

Bookmaker Cash Back Offer

Bookmaker Cash Back Offer

There is some major news this week on the bookmaker front I wanted to
make sure you were all aware of.

Coral have introduced quite an enticing cash back offer.

Each month you make a net loss with them on all sportsbook and gaming action
( excludes poker and any other peer to peer bets )
They will give you 10% of your net losses back.

See here for full details. ==> Coral

NB this is not just an offer for new account holders.
You can get this cash back if you already have a Coral account.

IMPORTANT

If you already have an account with them you need to opt in for this offer.
Do that now if you have not done so already by clicking here ==> Coral

Also if you open a new account with them, again opt into the 10% refund offer after you set up your account.

Also Note …

Bookmaker CanBet also offer a rebate on monthly losses

Pros of the CanBet offer .. they give 25% back which is obviously better than Corals 10%

Cons of CanBet

the rebate is restricted to losses only on UK and Irish horse racing ( whilst Coral is any sports and gaming too )

You have to manually claim it at the end of each month by logging in and entering a code into your account.
Once you opt into the Coral scheme rebate cash if due will automatically be placed into your account
which is obviously a much more punter friendly approach that cuts out the possibility of you forgetting to claim a refund due to you.

The CanBet rebate is limited to 8% of total stakes

You also need 25 settled bets each month on CanBet totalling at least £100

So as you can see CanBet do of course offer a significantly higher percentage if your focus is horse racing.
It would be nice however to see them cut out some of the hoops and hurdles and automate the crediting of your account each month if you are due cash.

Overall I think I have to applaud Coral for this losses rebate introduction.
It will put pressure on some of the other bookmakers to start thinking about how they too can offer something more attractive to us punters.

Best wishes
Sports Betting Blog