Why would you be interested in such advice?

Well Phil is an ex bookmaker and has proven he knows a thing or two about betting on soccer.

The Football Bets site has an excellent long term record indicating that you would be circa £16k up since Nov 2009 if you had had a £100 level stakes bet on each selection advised.

These are some of the advices for today.

More in the football bets member area right now and you can access that for just £1

Click Here ==>  Football Betting Tips

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Walsall v Bournemouth (3:00pm)
Bournemouth ‘DRAW NO BET’ at 4/5 William Hill  8/11 Sky 1pt

Milton Keynes Dons v QPR (3:00pm)
QPR ‘DRAW NO BET’ at 10/11 William Hill 20/23 BoyleSports 5/6 Bet365 – Sky – VC  1pt

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The nation’s football spread betting fans have been showing their support for newly promoted  QPR, Norwich and Swansea ahead of the start of the new football season.

The Hoops, Canaries and Swans will be facing a baptism of fire in the top flight after winning promotion into the premier league last term.

However, punters have been backing the teams to beat the forecasted 2011-12 season points predictions made by leading sports betting and financial bookmaker Spreadex.

Initial points quotes by the firm are between 36.5-38 points by the end of the season for QPR, between 31.5-33 for Norwich and between 31-32.5 for Swansea.

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Spreadex Free Bet

Click the link below to get a secret page free bet offer not found by their home page visitors.

Free £30 Bet With Spreadex

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Spread betting punters have been putting their money behind all three finishing on higher points totals come May.

Spreadex spokesman Andy MacKenzie said: “After Blackpool’s plucky showing last season, football spread betting punters have been really getting behind the newly promoted clubs.

“Although Ian Holloway’s men did eventually get relegated last term, they finished far higher than their predicted points total meaning anyone who gambled on them on our Premier League Points market would have been left quids in.

“This market is very popular with gamblers as you are not necessarily just betting on who will win the league or who will get relegated.

“Every team is given a points prediction which is updated as the season progresses meaning punters can bet on individual teams to do better or worse than our forecast, with the option of opening or closing bets at any point in the season to take winnings or cut losses.”

Other markets where bettors have put down big money include  Sunderland and Fulham to finish on 48 points or higher and West Brom to end the campaign with more than 44 points while Blackburn and Newcastle are predicted to find the season tough going.

As for who will win the league itself, punters are finding it hard to look past current Premier League champions Manchester United.

MacKenzie added: “United have won four titles in the past five years and our clients seem to think that dominance is going to continue.

“Punters have already backed them in from 2/1 to 7/4 to win the title and have been buying on the spreads their predicted points total of 79.5-81.

“We’ve had little interest in Chelsea, Arsenal or Liverpool, however, it seems our customers fancy Manchester City to finish with more than 76 points and to be United’s main title challengers this season.”

Spreadex’s Premier League Points Predictions 2011-12

Team                                                               Points

Man Utd                                                          79.5-81

Chelsea                                                            78-79.5

Man City                                                          74.5-76

Arsenal                                                              70.5-72

Liverpool                                                          69-70.5

Spurs                                                               61.5-63

Everton                                                            54-55.5

Villa                                                                 47-48.5

Fulham                                                         46-47.5

Stoke                                                               46-47.5

Sunderland                                                       46-47.5

Bolton                                                              43.5-45

Newcastle                                                        43.5-45

West Brom                                                       42-43.5

Blackburn                                                         39.5-41

Wolves                                                             39.5-41

Wigan                                                              37.5-39

QPR                                                                36.5-38

Norwich                                                           31.5-33

Swansea                                                           31-32.5

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Spreadex Free Bet

At Spreadex you can bet both normal fixed odds markets as per most bookmakers but they also offer spread betting too.

Click the link below to get a secret page free bet offer not found by their home page visitors.

Free £30 Bet With Spreadex

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SD2 – Alloa WIN @ 4/5 (vs. Dumbarton) – 1 Star Bet (Bet365, Blue Square, Stan James, William Hill)

Analysis

Alloa vs. Dumbarton

Dumbarton did win away on Tuesday but as previously mentioned midweek form is unreliable and apart from that, their recent away form has been absolutely dire. Alloa play on a 3G pitch and tend to experience a home advantage because of it. They haven’t been firing recently, but there’s a lot to take from their narrow 1-0 loss at home to Ayr in their last home game. That showed signs of a revival and Ayr are a far superior side to Dumbarton. As the odds suggest, this should be a comfortable win for Alloa and 4/5 still represents good value.

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This is an excerpt from this weekend’s scottish soccer message from Tammboy over at the Football Bets site.

Tammboy is an ex odds compiler for a major uk bookmaker and forms part of the team of soccer betting experts over at Football Bets

Wrong.

There is good money to be made from soccer betting if you stick to some simple
basic rules.

Rule 1 – This is a golden rule, you must shop around for the best value. Open accounts with as many on line bookmakers as possible, they nearly all offer free bets to entice you to open accounts with them.

You should have no loyalty to any bookmaker and the sole reason you should be placing a bet with one is because you are getting the best price. People who just use the nearest high street shop haven’t got a chance. Most Bookmakers have a profit margin of around 10% for football matches but because different bookmakers offer different prices it is still possible to swing the odds in your favour.

Rule 2 – Work out a staking plan. Once you have identified a value bet the next question is “how much should I bet?”. The answer to this question is determined firstly, by how confident you are about the bet, and secondly, by how much value you think you are getting. For example, if you toss a coin in the air you have a 50% chance it will be heads and a 50% chance it will be tales. The correct price for each outcome should therefore be evens. But what if somebody offered you 3/1 that the coin would land on heads, you are obviously being offered huge value and if you repeated this bet ten times you would have to be incredibly unlucky not to be in profit at the end.

Whatever staking plan you have worked out, this would obviously be a maximum bet scenario, you could still lose but you have secured huge value and if you consistently bet when the odds are in your favour you theoretically will make money in the long run. Your staking plan should accommodate the fact that despite the huge value any individual bet may lose.

Rule 3 – Never, EVER, chase. We’ve all been there, you’ve had a terrible day and lost a lot of money, the live Spanish game is about to come on and it’s the last game of the day. “Time to get my money back”, you say to yourself and you have a silly bet on Real Madrid at terrible odds. To make things even worse Madrid concede a last minute goal to level the game. They then go and miss a penalty deep in injury time, what a disaster, your days losses just got worse! To make money betting on soccer it is crucial that you have discipline. Just because a game is on TV doesn’t mean you have to bet on it. If you didn’t identify a value bet in the game at the start of the day then don’t bet on it. We all have bad days and there will be plenty of good value opportunities to get your money back in the next set of fixtures.

You must be selective with your bets. If you do feel the need to bet on every game you watch then keep your stakes small unless you have identified value.

Rule 4 – Stick to singles or doubles. It is hard enough predicting the outcome of one match let alone five.

Bookmakers love to promote accumulator bets because they know the more selections you choose the less likely you are to win. No matter how many teams you pick there will always be one result that lets you down. Many people are attracted to these bets by the possibilities of winning a lot of money from relatively small stakes. You will find that if you increase your stakes a little and stick to singles and doubles your profits will increase long term.

Rule 5 – Pay close attention to team news. An injury to a key striker or a suspended captain can sometimes greatly swing the odds in your favour. As a general rule the higher the level of soccer the less affect team news will have as the top clubs have large squads full of quality players. The lower league teams however, operate with much smaller squads and can have their chances of winning badly affected by key players being injured or suspended. Be warned however, team news can be misleading. Some clubs actively give out false information in order to gain an advantage over their opponents so it is dangerous to base your bet on team news alone.

Rule 6 – Choose which markets you bet on carefully. The best
markets to bet on are generally the match odds and some of the goals markets.
Halftime/full time, correct score, first goal scorer and other similar markets
have a higher profit margin built in by bookmakers and therefore generally offer
poor value. This is not always the case though and occasionally you will find
the odd juicy price in these markets.

For example, injuries may result in a midfield player starting up front making him much better value to be first goal scorer. Asian Handicaps are another market which you should make yourself familiar with. The bookmakers profit margin on these markets is a lot lower and so straight away you have more chance of finding value.

Rule 7 – Bend the rules in your favour. There are a number
of things you can do to achieve this. Firstly make sure you pick up a coupon
from your local shops at the start of the week. The prices printed on these
coupons are compiled up to a week ahead of the game and are often cut online
or on the phone. However the big two on the high street will hold the prices
printed on these coupons so you can often find a bigger price on a shop coupon
than you will be able to get online or even with the Exchanges. If there is
a big move for a certain game then they might impose restrictions of between
£50-200 per customer, but you should still be able to get on. Likewise,
when there is a move online and the match odds are cut you will sometimes find
that a bookmaker has forgotten to cut the “draw no bet” or maybe the
“halftime / full time” price.

It is also worth keeping an eye on long term markets when games are being played as you wouldn’t believe how sloppy some bookmakers can be at suspending markets. This can be especially useful near the end of the season when it is clearer which teams might win the league or be relegated.

Rule 8 – Keep records of all your bets. It is important to do this so that you know exactly how much money you are making or losing. It will help you decide on your staking plan and make it clear that you should stop if you aren’t making money in the long run.

Rule 9 – Stick to what you know and don’t bet on leagues you haven’t been following. You can only get an edge on bookmakers if you have better knowledge than they do on a certain league. If you don’t usually bet on Italian soccer but Milan are playing Inter on Channel five, then don’t bet on it. Accept that the bookmaker is likely to know much more about the two teams than you do and that, as a result, you are unlikely to beat him with bets on this league.

Depending on how much time you have free to study each league, you should be careful not to overstretch yourself. Pick one or two leagues out and concentrate on building up your knowledge of the players, managers, derbies and grudge matches. Most odds compilers will have several leagues to cover and may not have time to concentrate fully on each one.

Rule 10 - Don’t get carried away by short term trends and always be mindful of the bigger picture. This applies both to the leagues you are betting on as well as your own results. For example, if a team has won four games on the bounce then ask yourself “are they winning these games because they are a good team or is it just a lucky run?”. If you believe they are a good team then keep backing them but if you think its a lucky run that is likely to end soon, then you may well get the opportunity to back one of their opponents at an inflated price. Man City’s excellent run of results at home at the start of the season was a good example. City won their first nine home league games but if you thought this run was going to continue indefinitely then you would have lost your next six bets on them. Another good example is when one of the top teams is having a good run in several different competitions. The media tend to get carried away and soon start suggesting that this club can win all four trophies. Bookmakers latch on to this and ridiculously short prices for a quadruple appear in the Racing post prompting bets from hundreds of mug punters.

You should also be wary of “short termism” when it comes to your own bets. In any given season you will have good spells and bad spells and you should not get carried away with either. Stick to your staking plan and don’t start betting bigger and bigger because you are having a good run. Don’t go spending all your winnings either, keep a betting fund and only withdraw from it once you have gone over a certain level. You may need it to fall back on during a bad spell. Likewise, don’t get too upset by a bad run of results. Analyse your bets to see where you may have gone wrong but don’t be panicked into any rash changes. Bad spells can be very disheartening, but if you know your stuff and have made money in the past, then you probably aren’t doing too much wrong and the next good spell is just around the corner. The end of the season is the best time to take stock and analyse your performance over the season as a whole.

These rules should help you to tip the odds in your favour. It is possible to make money from betting on soccer but you will need to invest time and effort. It should be enjoyable too, a moneymaking hobby if you like. If you find the bad spells too upsetting or stressful then maybe it’s not for you.

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This advice was provided by Football-Bets.co.uk and written by a professional
soccer odds compiler with many years experience working for major uk bookmakers.

The Football-Bets site have several ex bookmakers providing clients with profitable
betting advice on uk and european soccer. Worth a look is their short free course
aimed at increasing your understanding of soccer betting.

A couple of bets today from Phil over at the Football Bets website.

Phil spent many years working for an independant bookmaker.
He now advises clients on what to bet on and has a very good long term record.

See Football Results

Anyhow enough waffle.

See below which football bets he is advising today.

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Morning Guys,

We had a nice winner last night as our double came in at a decent 21/10

Today we hope to continue winning ways with a couple of solid bets in the shape of another Double and a single

1pt Schalke v Hamburg (2:30pm)
OVER 2.5 Goals at 19/20 Bet365 10/11 Coral 8/9

1pt Win Double
Bayern Munich TO BEAT Wolfsburg (2:30pm)
Aberdeen TO BEAT St Mirren (3:00pm)
This Double pays just shy of 11/5 at Betfred and 21/10 at Coral William Hill  Tote

Speak Soon – All The Best , Phil ( BettingLayingClub)

Picture horse racing punters up and down the country
opening up their daily newspaper racing page
or flicking through the Racing Post sheets in their local bookmakers shop.

What is the most obvious element of racing form their eyes will
immediately latch on to?

Most likely it is the recent finishing positions from recent races.

If you see a horse with 000 ( failed to place in the top six in it’s last three races )
I suspect you would immediately discount it from your calculations.

If you note 111 however ( won it’s last three races ) your interest in betting on it will be tweaked.

And why not.

It is a proven consistent winner.

Probably the factor most weight is generally given to is it’s performance Last Time Out ( LTO )

The shrewd and canny amongst you are probably saying to yourself..

“Strike rate is only half the equation.
There is a very good chance that because winning last time out is so bleeding obvious
to everyone.. it is a factor that will over bet by the racing population and thus such horses
will offer long term poor value odds.”

Taking your questioning further you might ask..

“Are there any situations where horses that won last time out do better or worse than normal?

Is a horse that won a Group 1 race for example better to follow next race than a horse that win a maiden?”

Your average racing journalist or tv pundit will likely give you a load of personal hunch and supposition
on such matters.

Better you ask a more qualified horse racing researcher who can give you the cold hard facts.

Dave Renham has carried out research into this issue of last time out winners.

You can read his findings at the page below.

Horse Racing – Last Time Out Winners

The following comes from Tammboy over at the Football Bets website.
As an ex odds compiler for a major bookmaker his advice has proven worth following. He specialises in betting on Scottish soccer.

NB He actually has fours bets this weekend. This is just a sample one of them

SD3 Stranraer WIN@6/4 (vs. Arbroath) – 2pt win bet ( William Hill )

Stranraer vs. Arbroath

Stranraer have really got their act together and have had a great start to the season. A good 2-2 draw at Berwick last week outlines their quality at present. Arbroath, relegated last term have been having mixed results. Good at home but woeful away, hammered 4-1 by Berwick only two weeks ago. William Hill have clearly priced this up on the basis of a relegated 2nd division team must be stronger than a mid-table 3rd division team, but confidence means a lot in these lower leagues. A look along the odds-line will tell you this is way out. Bag the 6/4 before they change it.

The following comes from Tammboy over at the Football Bets website.
As an ex odds compiler for a major bookmaker his advice has proven worth following.

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Scottish Division Two
Livingston WIN @Evs (vs. Peterhead) – 1pt win bet (Bet365, Blue Square, Coral, William Hill)

Peterhead vs. Livingston

Livingston are the division’s favourites and they’ve done nothing wrong this season beating most
of the better sides in the division and only a last minute penalty stopping them from winning
all their games.
They face Peterhead, one of the weaker teams and it’s arguable they should be shorter than
the Evens available. Back them to win at Evens before the price goes.

The tips below come from a bloke called Phil who is one of the experts at the Football Bets site.

Phil spent many years working for a bookmaker and hs turned down job opportunities as a soccer betting odds compiler to focus on his own personal betting.

As you can see he is not one for long winded wordy waffle.

His betting success comes from his personal database of soccer statistics.

The stats and numbers lead his advice not random human hunch.

At last count he was running at  a strike rate of 59% and had a very impressive profit on turnover of  24% at level stakes.

The tip below is just one of four today from him.

Bolton v Wolverhampton
First goal OVER 27mins at evens Bet365 PaddyPower 1.5pts
Saver bet on correct score 0-0 at 9/1 Sky sportingbet willhill extrabet 0.5pts

CHELTENHAM 2.35

9/4 Carruthers, 5/2 Madison Du Berlais, 3/1 Inchidaly Rock, 12/1 Joe Lively, 12/1 Taranis, 20/1 Ollie Magern, 33/1 Knowhere.

The Argento chase is a Grade 2 chase over 25f. The history
of this race demands a horse that has ran in a Grade 1 race
or a Grade 2 at the very least. All past winners did that and 9 out of 10 had Grade 1 before.
They also show you want a penalised horse as well which means in this race carrying more
than 11st. Therefore I am ignoring TARANIS with a massive absence.
OLLIE MAGERN is out unpenalised and
older than any past winner. INCHIDALY ROCK does not
appeal as he has no Graded form and none of the winners
came from a Novice Chase like him. Last year JOE LIVELY
won this but he was in much better form then and I couldnt
trust him  aged 11 with an inferior preperation. KNOWHERE
is too old. I dont fancy any of the above. This is between
MADISON DU BERLAIS – CARRUTHERS. What bothers
me about CARRUTHERS is past winners came from Listed
or a graded Chases and he comes from a Graduation Chase
and has fewer chase starts than every other past winner.
MADISON DU BERLAIS  has a solid profile and comes
from the best trial race the King George at Kempton. Its
pretty cleat he is best on a Flatter track but he has placed here at the Cheltenham Festival
and does have some form here. I am going with CARRUTHERS as he loves smaller
fields and has a great record in them.

Selection – CARRUTHERS

Was best priced 9/4 earlier today when I sent this out to full members.

Has shortened up a  touch since then.
19/10 CanBet   ( a bookmaker who run an interesting bonus of giving you
a percentage of any losses abck at the end of each month )

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk