Over Under Soccer Bet

Louise the lady soccer tipster who uses her maths degree to battle the bookmakers with had a great weekend last weekend with five out of seven winning over under soccer bets.  ( Rather than try and be a jack of all trades she is firmly focussed on the over under betting market )

Read the rest of this entry

Over Under Soccer Betting Tips

Over Under Soccer Betting Tips

Louise is a lady mathematician who uses her
maths degree in the noble persuit of bookie bashing.

Her service is focussed on the over under soccer betting markets.

She has about five selectiosn for her cleints today.
Below I have picked a random two for our free sports betting blog here.

You can read more about Louise at her website

See here ==> Soccer Tip

League – English Championship
Kick Off Time – 15:00 BST
Teams & Selection – Blackburn v Watford OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.84 Pinnacle
Stake – 1.5pts
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the price to be around 1.62

League – English League One
Kick Off Time – 15:00 BST
Teams & Selection – Notts County v Doncaster OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 2.02 Pinnacle
Stake – 1.5pts
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the price to be around 1.80

Draw Bias Stats

Draw Bias Stats

The draw can play a very important role in flat racing.

There are proven biases to certain stall positions over certain course and distances.

Dave Renham is renouned as on of the uk’s leading experts on Draw Bias.

One small element of his daily messages to clients at his Racing Trends service is a section detailing any significant draw bias for that day’s racing.

I have copied today’s Draw Bias section for you below.

If you are the sort who likes to think about their racing and who prefers to make your own mind up as to what to back or lay instead of just following a tipster you may find the RacingTrends service are great daily resource.

Packed full of well researched stats and info it can only help your decission making.

Contact me here at sports betting blog and I should be able to arrange a short free test period trial for you.

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DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

Course & distance (time) Bottom third win % Middle third win% Top third win%
Bath 5f (1.45) 10 0 90
Bath 5f161yds (5.40) 65 4 30
Chester 5f (1.40) 82 9 9
Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) 21 63 16
Doncaster 1m (1.50, 4.50) 27 36 36
Kempton aw 5f (5.50) 44 41 15
Kempton aw 1m (7.20) 37 33 29
Kempton aw 7f (9.20) 41 34 25
Newcastle 1m (2.00, 2.35) 38 31 31
Newcastle 6f (3.10) 19 30 52
Newcastle 5f (5.25) 37 21 42

Bath 5f (1.45) higher draws do best here as low draws tend to go off too quickly. There are only 10 races in this sample so the bias is not as strong as it looks!

Bath 5f161yds (5.40) high draws used to dominate, but it seems lower drawn runners go off at a more steady pace these days hence being more able to take advantage of the bend.

Chester 5f (1.40) low draws have a very significant edge over this C&D. The lower the draw the better.

Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) low draws are perceived to have an edge over this extended 7f, but the figures suggest this is not the case. The value lies with middle drawn horses.

Kempton aw 5f (5.50) low draws have the edge here with higher draws struggling.

Kempton aw 7f (9.20) high draws struggle a little over this distance. Low draws tend to have an advantage when the field size hits 13 runners or more.

Newcastle 6f (3.10) high draws do best and occasionally completely dominate races.

Newcastle 5f (5.25) low draws tend to have the edge, especially in bigger fields, or when the stalls are placed far side (low). However, in fields of 10-12 with the stalls placed stands side, high draws can have an edge.

 

 

 

 

Scottish Grand National Racing Tip

Our regular free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician site is below

His full service has been on fire since Cheltenham.

To visit his site click here Betting Advice

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We have had a decent week for full members here.
Only two firm advised bets over the entire week.
We attacked the 12/1 Coral offered about RIFLESSIONE
with an each way bet and got the place pay off.
Then on Friday we improved on 2nd spot with 8/1 winner VALMINA

We do have another firm bet today that runs in the 6.05
So plenty of time to join up as a member proper
and pick that up in the member area.

As for todays Free Horse Racing Tip.
This is not a firm bet. More so extra analysis and info
from the message extra analysis section.

But it is the big race of the day and the most asked for preview
for the free betting blog.

The Scottish National

A y r 3.25

For live Scottish National Odds odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-21/ayr/15-25/betting/

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I have looked at the last 18 renewals of this race
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* It is Just not the best preparation for this race
* JUNIOR has that against him
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* JUNIOR looks underraced this season to me
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-19 record in this
* JUNIOR also fails this statistic
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-120
* No good coming here after a poor last run
* The following horses didnt do enough last time
* JUNIOR – ETXALAR
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18 4
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17 13
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 4 Chase starts.
* HARRY THE VIKING only has 3 Chase starts
* Thats one less than every 1st 2nd or 3rd
* HARRY THE VIKING doesnt come out that well
* HARRY THE VIKING is also a 7 year old
* We know 7 year olds dont win the Grand National
* In this race since 1992 they have a 1-55 record
* Horses aged 7 (1-55) look unsafe to me
* WALKON is 7 and may not get home
* PORTRAIT KING is 7 and lacks backclass
* He won the Eider last time and this is a second big test
* I see no evidence a 7 year old can do that
* OUR ISLAND – He isnt even 7 until next month
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-89
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* There was only 1 exposed winner aged 11 or more
* He had Graded form and 8 runs that season
* GARLETON – Not right as a 11 year old
* MERIGO – Has some flaws as an exposed 11yo
* The only winner like him had a more recent run
* He didnt win last time either and had more runs that year
* MERIGO – Credit for winning this in 2010 and 2nd last year
* ABBEYBRANEY – Wrong type of 11yo
* BALLYFITZ – HEEZ A STEEL dont offer enough aged 11 +
* 12 of the last 13 winners ran within 60 days
* ANY CURRENCY has been absent longer
* He looks underraced this year with that absence
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 3-89 record
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Graded form
* They all had 10st 4lbs or less as well
* KNOCKARA BEAU fails that
* FRUITY O4ROONEY fails that
* PETTIFOUR fails that
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* AURORAS ENCORE fails that statistic

* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* QUENTIN COLLONGES fails that
* OUR ISLAND also fails that
* QUENTIN COLLONGES only has 3 runs this year
* Some doing that have won but none aged 8
* No winners came from Hurdles
* PETTIFOUR – KING FONTAINE fails that
* GALAXY ROCK also come from hurdles
* Exposed horses won 6 of the last 18 renewals
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* AURORAS ENCORE – GARLETON fail that
* MAD AEDA doesnt look right
* The last 12 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out
* The following horses failed to achieve that
* PETTIFOUR – OUR ISLAND – ANY CURRENCY
* MOSTLY BOB – BE THERE IN FIVE
* GALAXY ROCK is not a negative
* Thats despite coming from hurdles. I can overlook that
* Decided not to shortlist him as an exposed 8yo
* Those that won all had more runs that season
* They all had more backclass and came from further too
* BE THERE IN FIVE also looks underraced this year aged 8

S h o r t l i s t

* MOSTLY BOB – Taking a chance on including him
* He had excused at Cheltenham and passes most stats
* Around 25/1 he could offer some value
* He was really progressive last year
* He has excuses in some races this year
* This track and ground could help him

* BENNY BE GOOD passes all the above trends
* He does have 11st 3lbs though which is a worry
* 8 of the last 10 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* I can overlook that given his price

* IKORODU ROAD sails through the above trends

Selection

Covering a few to small stakes with Ikorodu staked to
just return stakes on the other two if it wins

MOSTLY BOB 25/1 Win Bet ( a bit higher available on Betfair )
BENNY BE GOOD 25/1 Win Bet ( 36/1 Betfair )
IKORODU ROAD 12/1 Saver ( 16/1 Betfair )

Free Racing Favourites Research Report

Everyone seems to be harping on about facebook these days so I thought I better get in on the act and set up a facebook page.

I would not claim to be any facebook expert but it seems that having more “Likes” is a good thing.

What I have done is instead of depending on your good will and charity is to offer you a blatent bribe to click Like on my facebook page.

Any facebook user who clicks the like button there will automatically get an interesting research report in betting on favourites in uk flat racing.

It’s an interesting and well researched report not normally given away for free.

Go and grab it for yourself right now however at http://www.sports-betting-blog.co.uk/facebook

Saturday Racing Lays

The racing trends lay service had a good day yesterday.

13 lays suggested and 13 horses turned over.

Since the start of the year total profit figures on these lays is circa 99 points.

That includes Betfair commission and is based on BSP odds.

The 99 points is based on laying them just to win.

Laying them to place as well is a very viable extra option.

See the post below with long term spreadsheet etc.

Lay Sreadsheet Staking Plans

I popped a few up here last weekend and both were unplaced.

One from this method for  today is

Haydock 4.10 Royal Rock

PS Subtle Hint:

1 – Register for my own blog here http://www.sports-betting-blog.co.uk/register/

2 – Contact Me http://www.sports-betting-blog.co.uk/contact-me/ and ask me if as a subscriber to sports betting blog I can wrangle for you a free trial of Racing Trends :)

Stats For Saturdays Horse Racing

The below comes from Dave Renhams blog see horse racing blog

The favourites stats are based on many years historical research.

( his members get much more detail including strike rate and return on investment etc )

As for the In running notes.

The rough idea with these is to back them pre race and lay them back in running. The rough logic behind them is that these horses are assessed by Dave’s research as prominant front runners and are therfore likely to trade at lower when betting in running compared to pre off prices.

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Best races for favourites:

Newmarket  1.55

Newbury 2.45, 5.05

Haydock 6.40

Lingfield 6.50, 7.20, 7.50

In running notes

Horses I expect to trade lower “in running” – offering either free bets nothing or arbing opportunities to win money whatever the result:

3.25 Ripon Templetuohy Max

5.15 Newmarket Sutton Veny

6.50 Lingfield Sermons Mount

8.10 Haydock Welsh Emperor

Tote Exacta and CSF Bets

Tote Exacta and CSF Bets

Dave Renham made an interesting post the other day on his blog analysing the pros and cons of The Tote Exacta and the bookmaker equivalent the computer straight forcast bet.

These bets are roughly the same in that you are trying to predict the first two home in a race.

A question worth asking however is whether the Tote version or the bookmaker version is likely to pay you more cash winnings.

Dave’s research into this question is worth a read.

Click Here ==> Exacta and CSF Bets

Best Races For Favourites

Best Races For Favourites

If you examine the long term history of  individual horse races you will
see that some have a tendency for the favourite to do well and some have
a tendency for the favourite to do poorly.

There are two key measures of good or bad.

- Strike rate of favourites

and

- The profit or loss from betting them.

Below is a quick and ready reckoner to the races historically good for favourites for today’s racing.

Newmarket 2.45

Newbury 3.40

Bangor 4.40, 5.15

Uttoxeter 6.20

Doncaster 6.30, 7.05, 7.35

The above was copied from Dave Renham’s free horse racing blog and are based on his research over many years of past racing.

He puts up similar for free each Saturday.

His paid for service however provides a lot lot more detail.

eg Strike rates, return on investment info for layers pinpointing the poor races for poor favourites PLUS a huge amount of research into other areas of racing such as draw bias trainer stats etc.

If interested in testing out his service for free for a month visit the page below which is a secret page with a free trial deal for Sports Betting Blog readers.

http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/sbb-free-trial.php

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

The below was provided by RacingTrends

for more info click here ==> Horse Racing Blog

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Sat May 1st 2010

Best races for favourites

2.55 Thirsk

4.15, 5.25 Newmarket

6.45 Doncaster

Trainer stat to note

W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8+ weeks assuming they start in the top 3 of the betting. His strike rate is around 30% with profits of just under 30%. He runs Shamali in the 1.55 Newmarket and he is currently 3rd favourite.

Best race for front runners

5.15; 5.45 Thirsk

Strong course trainer stats

Doncaster trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
M P Tregoning 5 13 38.5 +£3.30 +25.4 8.20
H R A Cecil 7 34 20.6 +£12.00 +35.3 7.15

Newmarket trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
J H M Gosden 80 416 19.2 +£115.79 +27.8 5.25
J R Best 10 56 17.9 +£56.75 +101.3 3.05, 3.05, 4.15
H Candy 14 85 16.5 +£33.25 +39.1 3.40
A P O’Brien 16 98 16.3 +£21.89 +22.3 3.05, 3.05, 3.05