Everyone seems to be harping on about facebook these days so I thought I better get in on the act and set up a facebook page.

I would not claim to be any facebook expert but it seems that having more “Likes” is a good thing.

What I have done is instead of depending on your good will and charity is to offer you a blatent bribe to click Like on my facebook page.

Any facebook user who clicks the like button there will automatically get an interesting research report in betting on favourites in uk flat racing.

It’s an interesting and well researched report not normally given away for free.

Go and grab it for yourself right now however at http://www.sports-betting-blog.co.uk/facebook

The racing trends lay service had a good day yesterday.

13 lays suggested and 13 horses turned over.

Since the start of the year total profit figures on these lays is circa 99 points.

That includes Betfair commission and is based on BSP odds.

The 99 points is based on laying them just to win.

Laying them to place as well is a very viable extra option.

See the post below with long term spreadsheet etc.

Lay Sreadsheet Staking Plans

I popped a few up here last weekend and both were unplaced.

One from this method for  today is

Haydock 4.10 Royal Rock

PS Subtle Hint:

1 – Register for my own blog here http://www.sports-betting-blog.co.uk/register/

2 – Contact Me http://www.sports-betting-blog.co.uk/contact-me/ and ask me if as a subscriber to sports betting blog I can wrangle for you a free trial of Racing Trends

The below comes from Dave Renhams blog see horse racing blog

The favourites stats are based on many years historical research.

( his members get much more detail including strike rate and return on investment etc )

As for the In running notes.

The rough idea with these is to back them pre race and lay them back in running. The rough logic behind them is that these horses are assessed by Dave’s research as prominant front runners and are therfore likely to trade at lower when betting in running compared to pre off prices.

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Best races for favourites:

Newmarket  1.55

Newbury 2.45, 5.05

Haydock 6.40

Lingfield 6.50, 7.20, 7.50

In running notes

Horses I expect to trade lower “in running” – offering either free bets nothing or arbing opportunities to win money whatever the result:

3.25 Ripon Templetuohy Max

5.15 Newmarket Sutton Veny

6.50 Lingfield Sermons Mount

8.10 Haydock Welsh Emperor

Tote Exacta and CSF Bets

Dave Renham made an interesting post the other day on his blog analysing the pros and cons of The Tote Exacta and the bookmaker equivalent the computer straight forcast bet.

These bets are roughly the same in that you are trying to predict the first two home in a race.

A question worth asking however is whether the Tote version or the bookmaker version is likely to pay you more cash winnings.

Dave’s research into this question is worth a read.

Click Here ==> Exacta and CSF Bets

Best Races For Favourites

If you examine the long term history of  individual horse races you will
see that some have a tendency for the favourite to do well and some have
a tendency for the favourite to do poorly.

There are two key measures of good or bad.

- Strike rate of favourites

and

- The profit or loss from betting them.

Below is a quick and ready reckoner to the races historically good for favourites for today’s racing.

Newmarket 2.45

Newbury 3.40

Bangor 4.40, 5.15

Uttoxeter 6.20

Doncaster 6.30, 7.05, 7.35

The above was copied from Dave Renham’s free horse racing blog and are based on his research over many years of past racing.

He puts up similar for free each Saturday.

His paid for service however provides a lot lot more detail.

eg Strike rates, return on investment info for layers pinpointing the poor races for poor favourites PLUS a huge amount of research into other areas of racing such as draw bias trainer stats etc.

If interested in testing out his service for free for a month visit the page below which is a secret page with a free trial deal for Sports Betting Blog readers.

http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/sbb-free-trial.php

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

The below was provided by RacingTrends

for more info click here ==> Horse Racing Blog

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Sat May 1st 2010

Best races for favourites

2.55 Thirsk

4.15, 5.25 Newmarket

6.45 Doncaster

Trainer stat to note

W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8+ weeks assuming they start in the top 3 of the betting. His strike rate is around 30% with profits of just under 30%. He runs Shamali in the 1.55 Newmarket and he is currently 3^rd favourite.

Best race for front runners

5.15; 5.45 Thirsk

Strong course trainer stats

Doncaster trainer stats

Newmarket trainer stats

Before we move to today’s racing  a couple of points to cover.

1 – The Worst Tip Ever !

Last weekend’s blog tip was the worst tip ever.
Not that Maku ran a bad race finishing 2nd at 7/1 beaten by a head.
The analysis was almost spot on.
The horror was in the fact that Maku actually ran on Friday not Saturday when the tip was posted.
This was genuine human error.
My admin man posted it up. He was away from home confused with a borrowed PC and obviously working with insufficient caffeine in his system.

I have told him if he ever posts up a free blog tip again the day after it runs ..  to post up  a winner ..not a horse beaten by a head

2 – Full Service Cheap Price Cheltenham Deal

We are running a half price offer now for full membership.
Join today and your months membership obviously covers the upcoming Cheltenham festival.
If you are a regular blog reader you will know the sort of detail we go into.
For Cheltenham I work even harder for clients.
I doubt you will get a more comprehensive Cheltenham service anywhere.

You know you want in for Cheltenham so just do it now while it’s half price.

Here is the cheap price link
*************************************************

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

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A sample message from last year is at the link below

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-betting-advice.asp

On to Today

For full members we have a full account bet in the 4.05

Out of respect for them we can’t post that here.

A small snippet from the extra analysis section of the main message is copied below for you however.

KEMPTON 3.05

Racing Post Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

7/2 Nacarat, 4/1 Fistral Beach, 9/2 Kilcrea Castle,
8/1 Madison Du Berlais, 12/1 Atouchbetweenacara
14/1 Oedipe, 16/1 Le Burf, 16/1 Piraya, 16/1 Private Be
20/1 Razor Royale, 28/1 Something Wells, 33/1 Bible Lord
66/1 Ollie Magern.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 15 renewals of this race.
* There has been 70 similar races in Febuary
* Thats 70 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher

I think we can rule out Something Wells- Ollie Magern and
Bible Lord who wants a smaller field than this. PIRAYA may
also want a smaller field. All his dissapointing runs come in field sizes of 11 or more runners.
Horses with 1 run this year score badly. Those like ATOUCHBETWEENACARA who
have to step up in trip struggle and he didnt do enough for
me last time. OEDIPE has just 1 run this year and I don’t see enough in his profile to
forgive him that. Experience could be a problem for FISTRAL BEACH who has had
just 3 runs over Chases. The lightest raced chaser to win this was the high class
Gloria Victus who won this in 2000 with just five  chase starts and went on to run
in the Gold Cup after this race. It’s asking a lot for  FISTRAL BEACH to win
with just 3 runs. The 15 winners of this race all had more experience.
They had 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13 chase runs.
I am looking elsewhere. I dont know if LE BURF will have the class.
Most recent winners of this were unexposed. He isnt and none came from
Class 3 races or lower like him. He  isnt proven beyond doubt over this
distance and having never placed or won above a Class 3 grade before
he may just be found out on a career high mark.

NACARAT won this easily last year by 11 lengths although
he was in much better form last year.  This year he has been beaten miles in
all 3 races albeit in top class races. His issue is can he come back to form -
and can he show he stays this far on much softer ground than last year and
with a longer than ideal absence. If you look at the winners of this race in the
past you want a consistent horse thats been running well all year and NACARAT
does not fit that pattern. The Last 14  winners of this race ran 50 seperate times
in the season they won. In these 50 races in the season they won – the winners
managed to either Win or Place in 44 out of the 50 races. It’s
a strong statistic that shows you want a horse thats running well all season and
coming here with several wins and places this year. You want consistency as
much as anything else in this race and Last time out winners won 12 of the last
16 races  and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one
falling. NACARAT hasnt placed since 2009 and I reject him.

SHORTLIST

RAZOR ROYALE – Best outsider – Small chance – Shortlistable

KILCREA CASTLE – Profile is quite good and a strong runner

MADISON DU BERLAIS – Class horse and every chance

PRIVATE BE – The arguments for him are persuasive

SELECTION

I dont really want to be with Madison Du Berlais as this
is a Momentum race. I would want a better stable for this
class than Kilcrea Castle. You can look at Private Be in
two ways. Ideally I wouldnt want a 11yo up in trip but
the arguments for him on the track and with some of his
form is persuasive off 10st weight so a split stake bet.

PRIVATE BE 10/1
RAZOR ROYALE 20/1

Split Stake Bet

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

The Website football-bets.co.uk is currently running a live public test / trial

of several candidates seeking the job of official betting advisor there.

Canditates include an ex bettign shop manager, ex bookmaker odds compilers and bookmaker and spreadbetting traders. Also some more boffin like stats blokes and researchers.

They are in effect tipping for a month for free as their interview for the job.

Follow their progress at www.football-bets.co.uk/blog

Horse Laying System Tip

3.35 Haydock – Green Manalishi

This selection comes from a long term profitable laying system thread over in the full member area of www.PunterProfits.com

The system was devised by a member there after reading a horse racing research article into favourites.

http://www.punterprofits.com/horse-racing/can_you_make_a_profit_backing_favorites.php

Nb the above research is full member only there but if you email punterprofits and say you are coming from sports betting blog  and ask for a one month free trial you can get in for free for a month.

Rough guidlines for following these selections are do not lay at greater than 6/1 for the win.

Also lay thehorse to place as well as win.

Every meeting gets the go ahead today. Some very

interesting and significant Jumping action. Much of it is more Positioning for

Cheltenham. Plenty of races that don’t make any appeal to me as they throw up

short priced favourites or impossible to asses handicaps.

The racing selection for the blog this weekend however is

at Lingfield.

Lingfield 4.05

TITAN TRIUMPH Each Way 100/30 at Corals

There seems to be a school of though that TITAN

TRIUMPH is unproven in this class and has a lot to do. You can definitely make that argument but horses trying exactly what he attempts today have a strong record. I felt he was highly impressive last time and that he meets a mixed bag of unfit and badly treated horses. He will need luck in running as they all do
here but I thought he had a strong chance and is good enough to win.

LINGFIELD 4.00

William Hill JANUARY SALE – BET NOW! HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m

5/2 Titan Triumph, 3/1 Atlantic Story, 5/1 Red Somerset, 8/1 Ace Of Hearts,

8/1 Samarinda, 10/1 Capricorn Run, 16/1 Kayak, 20/1 Fajr, 20/1 Swiss Act.

* This is an 8f handicap for horses rated 0-108

* Its a class handicap and there’s been 51 similar races

* ACE OF HEARTS has to go aged 10 absent 107 days

* Thats asking too much as he has a career high mark

* FAYR won this race last year but had a recent run

* He is now a 7 year old absent 56 days

* I don’t want an older horse with a long absence like him

* KAYAK is out as a 7yo absent 42 days

* I don’t want SWISS ACT as he has ran once since June

* CAPRICORN RUN is not too bad statistically

* Not many horses come via conditions races though

* RED SOMERSET comes from that same race

* He is also reasonably fine statistically

* RED SOMERSET has never won in this class though

* He has never won from this handicap mark either

* He has never won off higher than 86 or above 0-90 class

* Today he is off 89 and facing a 0-108

* SAMARINDA is fine statistically but has a tough mark

* He has never won from his current mark

* ATLANTIC STORY has some issues to overcome

* None of the 51 winners came from Listed class as he does

* He is also a 7 year old with a 31 day absence

* He also has a career high mark to overcome

* TITAN TRIUMPH looks the progressive improver

* He has just won his last 4 races

* He has just won 0-74 – 0-75 – 0-80 and a 0-84 handicap

* This is clearly a step up in Class

* To counter that he is a fast improving well handicapped horse

* I looked at horses in 51 races with similar profiles

* Horses that won their last 2 races in Class 3 or lower

* Horses that came into these races like that scored well

* When they came from 8f or longer handicaps they were 6-14

* The Males that tried it starting under 12/1 were 6-12

* This suggests in form improvers can bridge the class gap

* TITAN TRIUMPH is my choice to improve past these

* With many potentially unfit and badly handicapped

* TITAN TRIUMPH may be able to win in this class

Racing advice from Guy at Mathematician-Betting

To visit Guy’s website click here ===> Horse Racing Tips

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Check

For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses

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