Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Febuary 14th

No Account Bet

Promised a Blockbuster and its certainly that with 18
previews today. Whether its an Oscar nominated mail
or box office flop remains to be seen. 18 previews is a
pretty Grotesque thought and the big risk of spreading
myself too thinly has to be a concern. I have things to
say about all 18 races though so it will stand or fall on
todays results but I think my strongest bets are the 2
listed below and I hope I have that right today.

LINGFIELD 3.05 – Full Members Only Bet

WINCANTON 3.10 – CHARITY LANE 6/4

It’s possibly a day where the selections become victim
to the ammount of racing and the size of the message
and they could get marginalised as there is so much to
edit and decide upon but I do feel both horses will win.
Personally I think the obscene size of this mail has
made it imposible to find an account bet and I hope we
can make up for that with the selections.
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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

We had a quiet Friday with no business done.
The message hit a couple of winners and held its own which was as much
as I’d have predicted as I felt it was a rough day that didnt offer us much at all and because of that happy with results yesterday.

Eighteen Previews today spread around most meetings for Full Members and
all codes and the hardest task is extracting the best bits of business and getting them to the top of the message.

For the free blog today just the one race examined.

WINCANTON 3.10

BATHWICK TYRES YEOVIL HANDICAP HURDLE
(DIV I) (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-135)2m6f

13/8 Charity Lane, 4/1 Midnight Chase, 9/2 Khachaturian,
6/1 Mendo, 10/1 Captain Americo, 12/1 Portland Bill,
14/1 Snake Charmer, 20/1 Ned Ludd.

I will be surprised if CHARITY LANE is beaten in this race.
Its quite a good handicap hurdle. I have to be with the lightly raced novice CHARITY LANE in this.
This race has often gone to a Paul Nicholls Novice Hurdler.
He’s won this race 3 times before and two with a Novice Hurdler winners
which is also significant. Nicholls won this in 2002 with Iverain and that interests me as
Iverain won the same novice at Chepstow in December as CHARITY LANE last
ran in and won and he then went to a Grade 1 at Cheltenham.
This horse ran in the 2008 Aintree Bumper.
The Stewarts bought him for 200k a massive sum and he has won both hurdle races since.
He was odds on in both and they were easy races and he wasnt always impressive but its
bought him a reasonably good mark and I think he will improve past these.
One of my better bets.
If you want a saver then its Snake Charmer at 14/1

SELECTION -CHARITY LANE
SAVER -  SNAKE CHARMER

Blog comment:
Prices above were from earlier message for Full members.
Snake Charmer now best 9/1 Ladbrokes, Tote
Plenty of 7/4 around for Charity Lane

Visit Guys Site Click Here ===> Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Horse Racing Tip

Lingfield 3.35   INTERNATIONALDEBUT

Each Way Single Best Price 10/1 William Hill , Ladbrokes, Coral

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On the Service for Full Members of www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
there are seven previews today with 5 at Lingfield and 2 at Wolves.
The 1.20 at Lingfield is a novelty selection
so lets ignore that to start with. That leaves 6 previews.
It sounds far too ambitious to say this – especially as its
Lingfield and its a Saturday but the remaining 6 previews
have produced 6 very strong selections. I feel that I have
Nailed it today and I fancy all 6 very strongly. I think it
is that good a message. Realism tells me I have no hope
of getting 6 winners in 6 races but I dont see where my
weak link are and I wouldnt have a problem at all with
making any of the 6 selections and had the prices been
better in a few cases even account bets were possible in
many of these races. This makes picking the right ones
today for the top of the message a nightmare.

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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

Yesterday we had no business and just side stepped a pretty
limited day that didnt offer anything. Hope thats put me in
the right frame of mind for a much busier day today. With
all the inspections and marginal decisions about what is on
and whats off I decided to concentrate mainly on the sand.
Its a Number Cruching Blockbuster at Lingfield and Wolves
and whilst maximum respect is given both tracks I have had
a good crack at both meetings and hope for a good day.

For the free blog I am lookign at just one race at Lingfield.

LINGFIELD 3.35

WIILIAM HILL TOP TEAM FOOTBALL
PRICES HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m2f

9/2 Lady Jane Digby, 5/1 Baylini, 11/2 Philatelist,
8/1 Ace Of Hearts, 8/1 Formation, 8/1 Internationaldebut,
14/1 John Terry, 16/1 Al Muheer 33/1 Prairie Spirit.

* This is a 10f handicap for horses rated 0-100
* We have had about 64 similar races run before
* PRAIRIE SPIRIT looks unfit to win a race like this
* ACE OF HEARTS is a 10 year old
* None of the 64 winners were that old
* He also has to step up from a Mile
* No horse aged 8 or more managed that
* He also has just 1 run since October
* He isnt well treated for his age and hasnt won at 10f before
* I dont see ACE OF HEARTS as a good bet here
* AL MUHEER has only ever won a maiden
* That instantly made him badly handicapped
* All 14 races since he has lost and is only 5lbs lower
* He has never done the trip before
* It will need to improve him a lot to win a 0-100
* That said AL MUHEER might find that improvement
* He is a fair price at 14/1 and has an outside chance
* JOHN TERRY looks more of a 12f horse
* He has a chance but I have to prefer others
* The race 14 days ago at Lingfield could be important
* FORMATION won that race at 11/1
* LADY JANE DIGBY was 2nd and BAYLINI 3rd
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT was back in 4th
* Less than 2 lengths seperated all 4 runners
* FORMATION won that race 14 days ago
* He had previously been beaten in a claimer
* I think the race was run to suit him last time
* I wouldnt be confident he would beat them all again
* His draw in stall 2 could be an issue
* The last 13 handicaps here with 8 or more runners
* None went to horses drawn in stall 1 or 2
* Only 1 went to a horse drawn 3 as well
* Higher drawn horses have had the edge recently
* This puts me off FORMATION and CONFIDENTIALITY
* I dont want to shortlist FORMATION
* LADY JANE DIGBY is another filly
* Fillies that came from handicaps were 1-45
* They dont score well but you have to respect her
* She’s in form – unexposed and has run in the class before
* LADY JANE DIGBY is respected and shortlisted
* BAYLINI has a chance but does have a bit to prove
* He hasnt yet won from his mark or in the class before
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT is a big runner for me
* He has won from marks of 87 and 92
* Today he has a mark of 95 but that doesnt worry me
* His last 3 runs all had excuses from marks of 99
* Three runs ago he dropped from 8f to 6f a big problem
* I didnt fancy him that day and he duly lost
* Two runs ago he moved up to 7f
* He had a 0-50 stat to overcome that day and lost
* That was no surprise as it was also his Southwell debut
* He ran in the race 14 days ago behind Formation
* He was a fast finishing 4th that day but he may improve
* That day he was up from 7f to 10f
* That had to have inconvenienced him
* Now conditioned at 10f he looks a big runner
* PHILATELIST is respected and has a chance
* He is slowly getting fit now
* Not the best handicapped horse in the race but all class
* PHILATELIST has to be respected but not for me

SHORTLIST

INTERNATIONALDEBUT
LADY JANE DIGBY

SELECTION – Its a wide open race but I feel I have made
a reasonable case for INTERNATIONALDEBUT and he is my main fancy in the race.
I think his last run has been criminally ignored. He was inches behind 3 of these when
having a 3f step up in trip which disadvantaged him. I feel
10f here must be in his range lookingat his form especially
here. If they got off hard he might be suited to a come from behind run and if there
is no pace he has a turn of foot. I see him coming fast and late and whilst this is not easy
and he does have a bit to prove like many others he looks the forgotten horse and a really big price around 10/1

SELECTION – INTERNATIONALDEBUT  EACH WAY