Hennessy Racing Tip

Hennessy Racing Tip

This fairly comprehensive Hennessy analysis was provided by Guy Ward.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
Sky VC Tote

Saturday Horse Racing Tip

I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f – 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC Betfred

Best Wishes

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Saturday Racing

Saturday January 24th

No Account Bet

1 Multiple Selection

Suggested Stake Totals £20

Cheltenham 2.35 – Tidal Bay
Cheltenham 3.45 – Big Bucks
Doncaster 3.25 – Big Fella Thanks

3  Each Way Doubles
1  Each Way Treble

Advised stakes on selections are £20 compared to
Account bets at £100. Todays stake totals £20 so
I would be looking at suggesting Three each way
doubles at £2.50 each and a £2.50 each way treble.
That comes to £20 and goes down as one seperate
selection on the day. I have decided to go with a
rare multiple bet to small each way money as it is
a riSky strategy but to a £20 stake like all selections
its will do for a tough saturday where we cant lose
much with small stakes yet could win plenty. I
would much rather find that elusive silver bullet
big priced win bet thats long overdue but you deal
with the cards you are dealt and thats where I am
going today. It was either this or a No Bet day.

The message is a few minutes late because of several
non runners which have needed editing. It is a really
interesting but complicated day with the frames of
several races changing by the minute. I quite like the
message. Its honest where it needs to be but there
is plenty commented on in a long message and I hope
its not one of those messages where the content turns
out to be better than the selections given at the top.

In terms of selections the only Lingfield horse I did
consider for a bet was HAMMER in the 12.50pm
but he may be a better each way double horse and
I dont think I have made the case for him enough.

I have tried to tackle some of the big handicaps at
Doncaster. These races looked too hard earlier on
but plenty of non runners have eased congestion
in these races and BIG FELLA THANKS appeals
in the 3.25pm race but I dont know whether the
reduced field after 11 withdrew from it leaves it
safe enough to go with this horse in what’s still a
tough and competetive handicap.

Two races at Cheltenham stand out. The world and
his brother want to bet on the big each way gamble
BIG BUCKS in the 3.45pm and I understand why.
There is pressure on the price around 7/2 and it does
seem everyone sees it as a solid each way bet and he
probably is and I would have to argue BIG BUCKS
each way is a decent bet much as far too many people
seem to agree and it does pick itself. I also like the
Letherby and Christopher at 2.35pm and feel that
TIDAL BAY is the each way bet in the race and I
am seriously considering him as my Gold Cup horse
in March at Cheltenham. He isnt bomb proof because
of the stamina issues but he is one of my better bets
today and I like him a lot in todays race.

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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

Todays Message starts off with six previews on the sand
at LINGFIELD. If the results and how the races were run
yesterday did not prove it once and for all you have to see most races at LINGFIELD as just lucky dip races. You can not trust this place at all and most races here that I preview are written with a very high level of scepticism in the belief that its a diabolical track for big stakes and whatever you think you know here its not as much as you need to know and the track is so dangerous any confidence can quickly be sapped away. After we see whether LINGFIELD will burn our fingers the message then moves to previews of some DONCASTER races. After that its some CHELTENHAM previews so the message isn’t in time order after the Lingfield previews it just runs straight through all of Doncaster and then all of Cheltenham. Because of the inspection I have had no chance to look at Uttoxeter’s card.

L  I  N  G  F  I  E  L  D

LINGFIELD 12.50

100/30 One Zero, 4/1 Flanders Fields, 5/1 Dusk,
5/1 Hammer, 5/1 Regal Angel, 8/1 Lucky Dancer,
8/1 Quite A Fella, 66/1 Lukatara.

SELECTION – HAMMER

This is a maiden race over 12f and its complicated as both
ONE ZERO and FLANDERS FIELDS have foreign form and no English form. Since Lingfield started racing on sand
back in 1990 they have ran 59 all aged maidens over this
distance. This is the 60th maiden race here. Look at the
record of fillies like ONE ZERO in the 59 races. Between
January and March fillies had a 0-103 record. At all times
of years Fillies aged 4 or more like ONE ZERO failed to
win any in a 0-114 record. Fillies with under 3 runs won
just 1 of the 58 past races (1-114) and no filly won when
having under 2 runs that season (0-149). All this suggests
that ONE ZERO has to be opposed. The problem then is
what on earth with. DUSK is a bit of a “problem horse”
and I havent found a similar winner like him but I wouldnt
dismiss him at all. QUITE A FELLA , LUCKY DANCER
and FLANDERS FIELDS are all impossible to rate and It
wouldnt be a shock if any won. Horses like HAMMER
have very strong records and its hard to see many beating
him. He has just come second in a similar race over this
course and distance. His previous 5th in a handicap where
the lowest rated horse was 71 stands out in this race. He’s just finished ahead of REGAL ANGEL and although he
has a chance to reverse that form REGAL ANGEL might
bounce as that was his first run in 2 seasons and this is not much recovery time. I would have to argue that the best
or at least most reliable option is HAMMER

SELECTION – HAMMER

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LINGFIELD 1.25

6/4 Thief Of Time, 9/2 Misyaar, 11/2 Capeability, 7/1
Green Dynasty, 8/1 Pyrus Time, 12/1 Strategic Knight,
16/1 Squad, 20/1 Crag Path, 25/1 Tropical Bachelor, 33/1
Prix Masque, 50/1 Dead Cat Bounce, 66/1 Ensnare.

This is a maiden over 8f and some decent horses from some
powerful stables throw up a trappy race and the market will
offer more insight than me. CAPEABILITY was expensive
and could be interesting in this race but you are dealing with horses you can not accurately rate and you have to guess. I suppose I would argue MISYAAR looks weak as a filly that was well beaten recently and I havent found many like her win similar races. STRATEGIC KNIGHT shouldnt be able to concede the weight if his purchase price is a reflection of his ability. THIEF OF TIME is clearly the obvious one and his stable seem in good spirits but if I backed him I would want him in an each way double because I dont see any great reason why he should be far shorter than some. You should let the market guide you but I would either go with THIEF OF TIME in an each way double or look
for an each way single on a well backed alternative that
the market hopefully suggests. No selection is possible
that wouldnt be a guess but CAPEABILITY did look
interesting and could give the favourite some trouble.

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LINGFIELD 2.00

9/2 Leading Edge, 5/1 Billy Red, 5/1 Capefly, 5/1 Catalan Bay, 11/2 Forest Dane, 8/1 Milton Of Campsie, 8/1 Upstairs, 10/1 Distinctly Game.

This 6f Sprint Handicap looks pretty vile. All I would say her is CAPEFLY may not be fit with just 1 run since April 2008 and being a filly as well she wouldnt be my choice. Neither is UPSTAIRS who wouldnt interest me down from 8f to 6f and from a sire thats 0-50 at distances short of 7f. The Australian horse CATALAN BAY is a total mystery without a run over here or anywhere for 294 days and unless there was a big market move I’d be inclined to leave him alone. These 3 are not negatives more so just horse I want to avoid on a Hunch. If I could add 2
more to this list MILTON OF CAMPSIE comes with too many
doubts and I cant find a similar race won by a similar horse so I’d not want him either. DISTINCTLY GAME doesnt look a horse  about to win so I think you’d be best concentrating on these 3 – LEADING EDGE- BILLY RED – FOREST DANE. If I went with a selection it would be no more than a guess and its a race I have no more than weak trends and half baked hunches in.

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LINGFIELD 2.30

13/8 Trafalgar Square, 9/2 Autumn Blades, 11/2 Compton’s
Eleven, 8/1 Randama Bay, 12/1 Mr Lambros.

This is a 7f handicap and its not been made any easier by the fact there are just 5 runners. The weakest runners from a fitness point of view are COMPTON´S ELEVEN who is 8 years old absent 66 days and AUTUMN BLADES absent 7 weeks. I didnt want an 8 year old like MR LAMBROS up in distance.
I would be nervous about the trip for RANDAMA BAY so
I would argue the market has it reasonably accurate and the
most likely winner has to be TRAFALGAR SQUARE.

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LINGFIELD 3.05

3/1 Halsion Chancer, 7/2 Den’s Gift, 9/2 Just Bond, 6/1 Art Man, 8/1 Mister New York, 8/1 Sofia’s Star, 16/1 Solent Ridge, 20/1 Glencalvie, 25/1 Bee Stinger.

This is a handicap over a mile is for 0-85 rated horses. The main talking point is a massive gamble on SOLENT RIDGE
from 16/1 down to 4/1. That sends shockwaves through the
race. I cant see a case for BEE STINGER. I am also against
SOFIA´S STAR beaten in a 7f claimer and up in distance as
well. GLENCALVIE doesnt look fit enough for an 8 year old.
I cant find a similar race won by a horse that came from a 10f handicap in Class 2 as ART MAN does and as he looks like a mile may be too short for him I would not want to select him. DEN´S GIFT wouldnt be my first pick as he has a 61 day break and his record shows he does not have an edge over the handicapper to counteract his absence. That said DEN’S GIFT is from a yard who have won with their last 4 winners and in similar races plenty of horses win with absences like he has and I wouldnt make him a  negative. I’d rather pick something else. I dont have a big issue with HALSION CHANCER but he wouldnt be my selection in the race. Seems strange that in a 23 race career that spand races from 5f to 10f that he has
never run at either 8f or 8f before and whether this trip is his best or not has to be open to doubt. JUST BOND has a fair chance and so to must MISTER NEW YORK. It may be
significant MISTER NEW YORK comes from a 0-104 to
a 0-84 race. Its a nice drop in class and he is as interesting as many in an open race. In terms of the gamble in this race  SOLENT RIDGE we have 358 similar races to judge horses like him. SOLENT RIDGE is a 4 year old absent 94 days. In 358 races if you take 4 year olds absent 10 weeks or more you find a 12-225 record. That shows they can and do win and all 12 were unexposed as he is. Considering he is unexposed – and well handicapped – and the market move suggests you have to ignore his poor form in the last half of last season I cant argue against him and have to give SOLENT RIDGE a chance in this race much as it is a gamble thats left 4/1 looking very short when 16/1 was the paper price. Money tends to talk on the sand and as he has been so well backed he has to be considered.

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LINGFIELD 3.40

2/1 Lady Jane Digby, 9/4 Australia Day, 9/2 Kandidate,
7/1 Baylini, 10/1 Internationaldebut, 20/1 Formation.

This is a Class 2 handicap over 10f. This is for horses rated 0-103 so its very hard to see FORMATION who has just
been beaten in claimers winning. The race should revolve
around whether KANDIDATE is fit enough. He has not
run in 152 days and is a 7 year old and thats a big worry
but he always run well after a long break and he has far better form than some of these. His highest rated danger is the 97 rated INTERNATIONALDEBUT but I’d be against him
coming from 7f to 10f. If AUSTRALIA DAY has a flaw it
may be that he is a bit underraced and may not be as sharp
as some but thats a dangerous assumption. The solid recent
class 2 handicap form come from the only females in the
race LADY JANE DIGBY and BAYLINI who were 1st and
2nd  in the same race last week. They are serious runners but the race revolves around whether KANDIDATE will be fit
enough to outclass these rivals and that is a tough decision to make. You could argue KANDIDATE could be the
pick and LADY JANE DIGBY a saver at the odds but It
is not a race I feel I can open up well enough to commit to.

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D  O  N  C  A  S  T  E  R

No compelling angles in the Novice Chase at 12.35am and
as there are just 5 runners I dont want to get involved. The mares race at 1.05pm is at the mercy of Chomba Womba
certainly on the ratings of the race. I wouldnt want a short priced bets in bad ground but she is hard to oppose and as there are hardly any similar races to draw any angles from  I will leave the race alone.

DONCASTER 1.40

5/1 Charmaine Wood, 8/1 Character Building, 8/1 Halla San,
8/1 Prideus, 12/1 Kack Handed, 14/1 Imtihan, 14/1 Laredo
Sound, 14/1 Pocket Aces, Serhaaphim, 16/1 Smugglers Bay,
25/1 Currahee, 25/1 Oscardeal, 25/1 Realism.

This 19f handicap hurdle has to go in the “too difficult”
department with 7 runners. We have had 145 of these
handicaps in January. Horses that come from either 16f
or 17f novice hurdles like CHARMAINE WOOD does
have a 0-40 record and that would be a worry for her
especially as she is also a female and no female came
from a novice race to win any of the 145 races. Also
failing that is KACK HANDED another up in distance
having come from a novice hurdle.  If you take all the
similar handicap hurdles with at least 14 runners like
this one in January you find exposed horses are 0-100
but sadly only Imtihan fails that. I would take out all
the rank outsiders as well. CHARACTER BUILDING
would not be my first choice coming from a chase. I
think its interesting that the last 4 winners had just
7-8-7-6 previous hurdle starts. Thats the sort of range
you want and why I would nominate PRIDEUS as
possibly the strongest looking runner statistically.

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DONCASTER 3.25

Sky BET CHASE HANDICAP (LISTED RACE) (5yo+) 3m

5/1 According To Pete, Big Fella Thanks, 6/1 Alexanderthegreat, 8/1 Laskari, 8/1 Montgermont, 12/1 Ungaro, 12/1 Verasi, Flying Enterprise, 20/1 Native Coral, 25/1 Lysander, 33/1 Crozan, 33/1 Irish Raptor,  50/1 Always Waining.

* This is a Listed class handicap chase over 3m
* There has been 14 renewals of this race
* Two were run at Southwell and 12 at Doncaster
* Clearly a very competetive chase but there are angles
* I think you want a lightly raced chaser
* These horses have dominated in recent years
* Since 2000 past winners had the following chase starts
* 5 – 10 – 3 – 10 – 5 – 6 – 9 – 3 – 4
* I would be wary about exposed horses
* The Angles in this race show exposed chasers vulnerable
* Horses with 21 career starts need 4 + runs this year
* Those that did not had a 0-46 record
* They were also considerably better with lightweights
* I would oppose the following 9 horses
* They all look overexposed and underraced this season
* UNGARO-  VERASI – FLYING ENTERPRISE
* ALEXANDERTHEGREAT  – CROZAN
* LYSANDER – IRISH RAPTOR
* ALWAYS WAINING is exposed and I dislike that
* He also has a big weight and ran poorly last time
* My biggest issue with MONTGERMONT is the trip jump
* I dont like horses coming from 2m 4f as he effectively does
* Horses aged 11 or more with 1 run this season are poor
* NATIVE Coral fails that and I see him a vulnerable
* Horses with 1 or 2 runs this season are best if lightly raced
* Those that had 13 + runs and just 1 or 2 runs that year were 0-53
* NATIVE Coral fails that

SHORTLIST

* These 3 horses came out strongly statistically

BIG FELLA THANKS
ACCORDING TO PETE
LASKARI

* LASKARI is fine but doesnt look thrown in
* Not convinced about ground or trip with him
* ACCORDING TO PETE comes from a novice chase
* Thats fine and he has a reasonable profile
* My only worries here are his stiff weight and handicap mark
* Horses with 11st 6lbs + in this race are just 2-48
* A Handicap mark of 146 is a tough task for him
* I share the view its a tough weight for him
* I prefer BIG FELLA THANKS
* BIG FELLA THANKS is unexposed and the right type
* He has a sound chance if he jumps well
* BIG FELLA THANKS is my selection

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Just a quick word about the Bumper at 4pm

DONCASTER 4.00

SkyBET.COM  “JUNIOR” STANDARD OPEN
NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 5) (4yo) 1m5f

11/4 Artist’s Moon, 6/1 Baligha, 6/1 Sure Josie Sure, 8/1
Good Faloue, 10/1 Den Maschine, 10/1 Donny Briggs, 10/1
Just Pickles, 11/1 Young Buddy, 12/1 Steel Giant, 16/1
Letshaveago, 16/1 Switched Off, 20/1 Can’t Remember,
20/1 Lilla Sophia, 33/1 Avanos, 33/1 Turfenmill, 40/1
Best Of The West, 40/1 Gospel Spirit, 50/1 Jazzaria,
66/1 Handtheprizeover, 66/1 Par Avion, 66/1 Shadow
Boxer, 66/1 Suzis Gift.

There has only ever been 26 Bumper races for 4 year olds
run before. Thats 26 races at any track-distance – and any
time of year. In these 26 races Unraced Fillies have never
won anything and have a 0-39 record and thats why I’d
want to avoid SURE JOSIE SURE and BALIGHA from
the fancied runners as well as Letshaveago , Lilla Sophia, Par Avion and Can’t Remember. Clearly the Henderson
horse ARTIST’S MOON has a big chance and in the 26
races this trainer has a 2-5 record with unraced horses.
I think GOOD FALOUE may be better value and a filly
with 1 race has won this race before and they score well
if they placed in that sole race.  AVANOS has been a big
gamble and must be considered. Its a guessers race so lets
no kid ourselves but if I was playing in the race I would
see it between GOOD FALOUE – AVANOS and the favourite ARTIST’S MOON.

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C H E L T E N H A M

The opening Novice hurdle is hijacked by an odds on shot
in DIAMOND HARRY who I wouldnt want to oppose. Whilst his main rivals all come here having won a novice hurdle easily DIAMOND HARRY has just won a Grade 1 easily and looks pretty hard to oppose in a race where we cant really do much with as there is a small field.

CHELTENHAM 1.30

100/30 Tricky Trickster, 4/1 Hennessy, 4/1 Ping Pong Sivola, 7/1 Kilcrea Asla, 8/1 Galant Nuit, 10/1 Quws Law, 12/1 French Saulaie, 14/1 Andrew Nick, 14/1 Camden George, 25/1 Monzon.

The Novice Handicap Chase throws together several that
are the right type that have been winning this race which
is a shame. You want a lightly raced chaser ideally having
his first season over fences. You want a horse that ran at
19f or more last time and a horse that was 1-2-3-4 in that
race and Camden George , Andrew Nick and Momzon are
the only horse that fail those angles. That makes it a tough race with few meaningful statistical angles. Nigel Twiston Davies has been struggling and throwing many arrows at the drat board and just because he had a 14/1 winner the other day I,m not convinced you want to be on runners from this yard so TRICKY TRICKSTER wouldnt be my
choice. QUWS LAW may not want this track and I would
not select him either. The best trainer record belongs to
Venetia Williams as her runners in this race have a decent
W 2 W 2 4 F F record so PING PONG SIVOLA has to be
considered much as he lacks Cheltenham form. This is a
race where too many have chances for me and none come
from a recognised trial race so I dont see an edge. Forced
for a selection I would go with PING PONG SIVOLA

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CHELTENHAM 2.05

6/1 Akilak, 6/1 Stan, 7/1 Battlecry, 10/1 Moon Over Miami, 10/1 Pablo Du Charmil, 10/1 Private Be, 10/1 The Sawyer,
10/1 Turko, 12/1 Reveillez, 16/1 Lidjo De Rouge, 16/1 Mister McGoldrick, 16/1 Too Forward, 25/1 Bring Me Sunshine, 33/1 Foreman.

This is a 2m 5f Novice Handicap Chase and there has
been 13 renewals. I would be looking to take on STAN
on bad ground and BATTLECRY on his stableform and
the trip and ground. TURKO is all over several columns
in several papers. This is a horse thats never been right
statistically for any race he has ran in recently not least
the Grand National when far too young. I can see a
case why many fancy him and it wouldnt shock me if
he won but I’ve put his profile in all 40 novice handicap
chases around this trip and none had his profile so I am
not going to select him.  MOON OVER MIAMI isnt
for me as his sire is 0-48 beyond 2m 4f and he has to
step up in trip and no past winner of this race did that.
TOO FORWARD is too old for me. REVEILLEZ is
out with a long absence.  If I was shortlisting I would
see THE SAWYER and AKILAK as the best profiles.

SELECTION – THE SAWYER
SAVER – AKILAK

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CHELTENHAM 2.35

LETHEBY & CHRISTOPHER CHASE
(REGISTERED AS THE COTSWOLD CHASE)
GRADE 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m1f110y

5/2 Halcon Genelardais, 11/4 Star De Mohaison, 5/1 Nozic,
5/1 Tidal Bay, 8/1 Roll Along, 14/1 Snoopy Loopy, 16/1 Joe
Lively, 33/1 Ollie Magern.

SELECTION – TIDAL BAY Each Way

The Letherby and Christopher chase is a Grade 2 chase
over 25f. Nice small field. In the 2007 renewals of this
race I opposed HALCON GENELARDAIS as I did not think he would recover from a gruelling slog in the welsh
national and he flopped. This year he again comes from
the welsh national where he finished 3rd with a massive
weight and a hard race. I have to oppose him again this
year as that takes so much recovering from. In the 2007
message I listed every horse since 1994 that was 1-2-3-4
in the Welsh National and that came out within a month
as HALCON GENELARDAIS does. I wont repeat the analysis today but you can read it on the message board
in 2007′s message. This analysis shows the complete
record of horses placed at Chepstow and it shows the
vast majority run badly next time. The only horses that
overcame that Chepstow run had excuses. Eudipe did it
in 1998 but he was lucky as a clear leader fell at the last handing him the race. Hedgehunter also did it but as we now know he went on and won the Grand National and
came second in the Gold Cup. This is a small field  and
HALCON GENELARDAIS may go and win but given his very hard race at Chepstow I expect it to be too much for him as it was in 2007. HALCON GENELARDAIS is also unpenalised and the history of this race suggests you want a penalised horse. This leaves me thinking an each way alternative is best. I do not want to consider JOE LIVELY either as he was only beaten 10 lengths in the welsh national and this could come too soon. I cant really consider the outsider OLLIE MAGERN at the moment and SNOOPY LOOPY may well have run his best races already this season.  ROLL ALONG has a fair chance and a reasonable profile but he has only
had 6 chase starts and thats less than all past winners
of this race. Nicholls runs two horses in NOZIC and
STAR DE MOHAISON in this race. You can argue
STAR DE MOHAISON is unpenalised in this race and most winners of this race were penalised. You can also argue STAR DE MOHAISON may not want the ground as bad as it is and Ruby Walsh is on NOZIC. Paul Nicholls says he prefers STAR DE MOHAISON but its a close call. On paper NOZIC has just a good a chance but you can also argue that NOZIC could well bounce having had just one proper race since last March when winning 4 weeks ago. That day NOZIC
beat TIDAL BAY (2nd) in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby but he was getting plenty of weight. Back at level weights today you would expect TIDAL BAY to beat NOZIC but you have to worry about stamina and will TIDAL BAY stay the tough extended 25f at Cheltenham on soft ground. I think he will. There are no concerns on his breeding for me. He’s just run over 25f at Wetherby. Whilst you would expect this race to take longer to run Raceform standard times suggest this is less of a stamina test. Personally I dont trust that at all and think I may have been put away but regardless of that TIDAL BAY has shown he stays close enough to this distance to give him every chance. What really swings it for me is my Cheltenham Gold Cup stats. I
looked at these the other day and surprised myself. I
have very rigid Gold cup stats that have been accurate
and succesful over recent years. They show that almost
all recent winners fit a rigid profile. This year they are
telling me that I can respect Barbers Son if he comes
out and runs well. They tell me if the ground is fast
I have to consider Albertas Run. They also tell me that
if he runs well today TIDAL BAY has a bomb proof
profile for a Gold Cup and if he does then he it would
be more likely than not that TIDAL BAY is going to
be my Cheltenham Gold Cup horse this year. If thats
the case he has to be very appealing here at 7/1 and I
think he will win this. You can argue that he may not
stay because his 2 mile form is so good its unlikely
he has the stamina. You can take the opposite view
and argue he has so much Class that his 2 mile form
was achieved “In spite” of the the minimum distance
just as we found with Kauto Star after he win a Tingle
Creek. If the latter is true and his 2m form was down
to his class and not his true ideal conditions then you
may well be watching the Gold Cup winner in this
race. Thats why TIDAL BAY is my selection in this
race and why he is currently my most likely selection
to win at Cheltenham in March in the Gold Cup

SELECTION – TIDAL BAY Each Way

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CHELTENHAM  3.10

11/10 Walkon, 4/1 Reve De Sivola, 9/2 Higgy’s Boy, 13/2
Simarian, 12/1 Blues In Cee, 14/1 Pemberton, 20/1 Nampour.

The Finess hurdle is a 17f race for juveniles. Not a great
race for trends. WALKON has just won the best trial race
for this when he won the Champion Finale Juvenile Hurdle
run at Chepstow 4 weeks ago. That race has provided the
winner of this race in 2000-2001-2002-2004 and also last
years runner up. WALKON beat REVE DE SIVOLA into
3rd place with SIMARIAN back in 4th that day so we
have 3 horses coming from the best trial. Whats annoying
is just 7 runners making each way alternatives impossible.
I wouldnt want HIGGY’S BOY. Not only does he meet
3 runners from a good trial race he has ran just once and
thats a worry as no past winner of this race did that and
I have to see others as safer and as HIGGY’S BOY beat
BLUES IN CEE last time I have to presume he will lack
the ability to win as well.  PEMBERTON won a race on
the same day as the Best trial race but that was merely a
smaller contest and I didnt want him. I suspect the race
will be won by one that came from the Chepstow race
and REVE DE SIVOLA was finishing well in 3rd place
that day. The added distance may be a big help to him
and the fact he has ran at Cheltenham before and proven
himself unlike Walkon may suggest he is better value. I
would want 8 runners though to get excited about a bet.
For a mudane selection given the odds on offer I will go
with REVE DE SIVOLA in the hope the extra yardage
can help him beat WALKON who has every chance
as well. REVE DE SIVOLA for me at the odds.

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CHELTENHAM  3.45

10/11 Punchestowns, 7/2 Big Buck’s, 11/2 Fair Along,
10/1 Blazing Bailey, 12/1 Lough Derg, 25/1 No Refuge,
25/1 Pettifour, 66/1 Turpin Green.

SELECTION – BIG BUCKS each way 7/2

The Cleeve Hurdle is not be a race for meaningful trends
as it has moved from 2m 4f to a 3 mile race two years ago
and it’s been run at different tracks. Its further complicated as its a prep race for the Stayers Hurdle and many use the race as a warm up for the Festival. Both BIG BUCK’s and FAIR ALONG won 3m handicap hurdles at Cheltenham last time out. As BIG BUCKS did that more recently – and as he won a better class handicap – and carried more weight in doing that I would prefer BIG BUCKS to Fair Along but it is not easy to oppose PUNCHESTOWNS who has just won the Long Walk Hurdle beating both Blazing Bailey and Lough Derg. If PUNCHESTOWNS has a flaw here its bad ground and whether he can overcome that in this race. Paul Nicholls stated the other day he had entered and also backed BIG BUCKS for the Stayers Hurdle and he is 14/1 for that race behind the favourite PUNCHESTOWN. He also states
today that he considers BIG BUCKS his best bet today and
gives him every chance of winning this race. This and other
factors have resulted in a big each way plunge in this race on BIG BUCKS and all the 9/2 and 4/1 have been taken and 7/2 may be the best available price. Personally I agree that BIG BUCKS each way is the outstanding bet in the race and I have to follow that gamble in as well. I wouldnt object to 7/2 each way much as it would have been a bit nicer to have had better prices. I see that as the bet here

SELECTION – BIG BUCKS each way 7/2

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