Draw Bias Stats

Draw Bias Stats

The draw can play a very important role in flat racing.

There are proven biases to certain stall positions over certain course and distances.

Dave Renham is renouned as on of the uk’s leading experts on Draw Bias.

One small element of his daily messages to clients at his Racing Trends service is a section detailing any significant draw bias for that day’s racing.

I have copied today’s Draw Bias section for you below.

If you are the sort who likes to think about their racing and who prefers to make your own mind up as to what to back or lay instead of just following a tipster you may find the RacingTrends service are great daily resource.

Packed full of well researched stats and info it can only help your decission making.

Contact me here at sports betting blog and I should be able to arrange a short free test period trial for you.

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DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

Course & distance (time) Bottom third win % Middle third win% Top third win%
Bath 5f (1.45) 10 0 90
Bath 5f161yds (5.40) 65 4 30
Chester 5f (1.40) 82 9 9
Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) 21 63 16
Doncaster 1m (1.50, 4.50) 27 36 36
Kempton aw 5f (5.50) 44 41 15
Kempton aw 1m (7.20) 37 33 29
Kempton aw 7f (9.20) 41 34 25
Newcastle 1m (2.00, 2.35) 38 31 31
Newcastle 6f (3.10) 19 30 52
Newcastle 5f (5.25) 37 21 42

Bath 5f (1.45) higher draws do best here as low draws tend to go off too quickly. There are only 10 races in this sample so the bias is not as strong as it looks!

Bath 5f161yds (5.40) high draws used to dominate, but it seems lower drawn runners go off at a more steady pace these days hence being more able to take advantage of the bend.

Chester 5f (1.40) low draws have a very significant edge over this C&D. The lower the draw the better.

Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) low draws are perceived to have an edge over this extended 7f, but the figures suggest this is not the case. The value lies with middle drawn horses.

Kempton aw 5f (5.50) low draws have the edge here with higher draws struggling.

Kempton aw 7f (9.20) high draws struggle a little over this distance. Low draws tend to have an advantage when the field size hits 13 runners or more.

Newcastle 6f (3.10) high draws do best and occasionally completely dominate races.

Newcastle 5f (5.25) low draws tend to have the edge, especially in bigger fields, or when the stalls are placed far side (low). However, in fields of 10-12 with the stalls placed stands side, high draws can have an edge.

 

 

 

 

PunterProfits Christmas Sale

PunterProfits is a great site for thinking punters who appreciate the benefits of having lots of racing research work done for them.

Dave Renham has knocked up a few words below highlighting some of
the key things going on in the full member area now.

PS Note info at the bottom about the Christmas sale
:)

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PunterProfits is an on-line betting
community where punters share racing systems, betting ideas, tips, research
and the like. The content is mainly horse racing, but football does get an airing,
as does greyhound racing and other sports.

At first glance the
website may look a little over-whelming, as there is so many options
and places to check out. However, it is fairly straight-forward once
you get your bearings as essentially it is a forum with numerous threads.
The forum is split in different sections – the busiest two are ‘Racing-
Daily Tips’ and ‘Racing – Systems, Ratings’. These two sections
have several threads that are on-going and updated each day. Most members
follow threads that suit their betting style, as well as following the
more profitable ones!

One of the impressive
aspects about the threads on PunterProfits is how often big priced winners
are found. For example:

25/11/2010 – on the
aw pacey
thread Abulharith was tipped up going on to win at 50/1
and paying a massive 88.5 Betfair SP;

28/10/2010 – on the
October trainers
thread Educated Evans was a selection winning at
a huge 66/1 and paying roughly double that Betfair SP at 132.47. This
horse was also flagged up on the NH Trainer Report thread.

9/10/2010 – on the
Pacey
thread Tres Coronas won at 33/1 and paid a massive 86.49 on
Betfair SP;

8/10/2010 – on the
2 system to trial
thread No Supper won at 33/1 (BSP 49.18)

30/9/2010 – on the

Sam Specials thread Dance and Dance won at 33/1 (BSP 50.0)

28/9/2010 – on the
Draw Biases
thread, a tricast was landed producing a profit of £842.30
thanks to the 2nd and 3rd horses being priced
at 25/1 and 18/1 respectively. The bet was equivalent to a 36/1 winner.

30/7/2010 – on the
Sam Specials
thread Joseph Henry was advised at 40/1 and won (SP
was 28/1 and BSP 46.54).

7/7/2010 – on the
Sam Specials
thread Crown won at 50/1 paying 61.38 BSP.

21/6/2010 – on the Market Bias system

thread there was an incredible double with Blue
Aura winning at 25/1 (BSP 31.61) and half an hour later The Jailer winning
at 66/1 (BSP 94.57).

14/5/2010 – on the
Market Bias system
thread Ginger Ted won at 40/1 paying a huge 107.53
Betfair SP.

Several big priced
winners show that these are not just flashes in the pan. One aspect
of betting that we encourage at PunterProfits is the need to find VALUE.
To make regular profits from betting there is not one single method
that works, but getting value about your selections is key. We emphasise
the need to use early prices and/or Betfair to enhance profits. As you
will see from the Betfair SPs above, there is a huge advantage to using
Betfair SP especially on big priced runners.

Let me now look at
some of the threads in the full member’s area at PunterProfits:

Terrys Lays

This thread has been our most
successful laying thread since it was launched in July 2007. To date profits
stand at £16,456 to £100 per lay; even at just £20 per lay profits stand at
an impressive £3291.20. The method revolves about laying Racing Post forecast
favourites and has made a profit in each of the four years we have been running
it. This year’s profit stands at about £5000 to £100 per lay.

Southwell breeding thread

This thread revolves
around the fact that Southwell favours certain horses that are influenced
in their pedigree by American breeding. This had been running since
January 2010 and after 90 selections profits stand at +33.62pts to SP;
39.89pts to BSP. Hence £20 per selection at BSP would have yielded
a profit of £797.80. Selections occur mainly in the winter months as
this is when the majority of all weather meetings at Southwell take
place.

Sam’s Specials

This thread started
on June 10th 2010 and soon established itself as one of the
threads to follow. Sam looks at a variety of strong statistics each
day from which he makes his selections. By the end of November profits
stood at an impressive +192.74pts to advised prices; +153.16 using Betfair
SP at level stakes. At £20 per selection profits to advised prices
stand at a highly impressive £3854.80. No wonder he has a huge following.
He is not afraid to put up big prices and he started December in the
same vein as previous months with each way selection Ad Vitam finishing
2nd at 80/1.

Saintmartin’s
Daily Selections

This thread is one
for those who like high strike rates. He uses a staking system to aid
profits and at the end of November profits stood at +72.23 points. The
staking plan is a sensible one which increases only small amounts after
a loser. A very consistent thread.

Pacey/AW Pacey/NH
Pacey

There are three separate
threads run by the same member all based on the idea of pace bias. All
3 are in profit at the end of November 2010. Often horses are decent
prices and this is definitely a thread where it is SO IMPORTANT to beat
SP because although SP profits are excellent at +44.46pts, BSP profits
stand a huge +155.87pts. At £20 this is a difference in profit of £2228.20
– now that is going to make a big difference to most people.

Going Going Gone

This is a relatively
new thread focusing on horses that has shown strong preference for certain
types of going. To the end of November this thread had nailed 8 winners
from 50 for a profit of +21.33 to SP (BSP profit +34.49). Winners have
been a mixture of prices from 5/6 to 25/1. Looks one to keep a close
eye on.

Market Bias system

This has wound up for the year
as it concentrates on the summer months. However, it will be back in May. In
2010 profits stood at +124.75pts; in 2009 profits were +40.18. At £20 per bet
therefore these two summers would have yielded a fantastic profit of £3298.60.
The selections tend to be at the higher end so it is a thread that requires
patience. However, as you may have noted above this thread had a 66/1 winner
and a 25/1 winner on the same day this year.

NH Trainer Report

This thread notes selections
connected with strong trainer trends that were highlighted in the National
Hunt Trainer Report. The National Hunt Trainer Report is a 122 page
report that you receive for free if you join the full member’s area.
This thread had noted numerous winners in the first couple of months
of the season including a 66/1 winner.

—-

As you can hopefully
see, this forum is surely the best in the business. Numerous threads
banging out winners on a consistent basis – and not just short priced
jollies either! Not only that, members are hugely supportive of each
other which is fantastic.

Not only do you get
some fantastic daily tips/bets, you also get much, much more. This includes:

1. Regular betting articles
– over 130 articles are free to view with virtually every topic you
can think of being addressed. For example favourites, sires, the draw,
pace bias, trainer stats, jockeys stats, recent form, betting in running,
placepots; exotic bets, etc, etc;

2. Free System checking
– if anyone has a system they want to check the results, but do not have the
capability, then Punter Profits is happy to have a look and see if we can check
it over past years for you. This could save you a lot of time not to mention
cash if it turns out to be a dud or if course it might quickly confirm you are
on to a winning approach

3. Regular Research Reports
– detailed racing research reports / booklets are collated and given to members
for FREE. Some reports run in to over 100 pages of detail. Topics explored include
Flat Trainers, NH Trainers, Favourites etc. ( you get to keep these big reports
even if you just upgrade for a short time )

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CHRISTMAS SALE

We like drinking beer.

If you give us £3 to buy a pint with, we will provide
you with full membership here for three weeks.

A very fair deal considering you get to keep the big research
reports even if you do not wish to remain a member after that.

Step 1 – Register a free account at
http://www.punterprofits.com

Step 2 – Log In

Step 3- Follow the prominent upgrade link once logged in.

Step 4 – Pay your three quid and you you will be upgraded to
full member status

Draw Bias Explained

In flat racing the horses start the race from metal starting stalls.
The draw refers to a horse’s placing / position in the starting stalls.
Draw 1 is on the left, while the highest number is on the right.
On left handed round courses the lowest draw is drawn next to the inside rail;
on right handed courses the highest draw is drawn next to the inside rail.

The draw can be very important at certain courses over certain distances.

This is due to a number of factors – it could be that some horses have an
advantage because they are drawn on the inside and are hence able to
take the shortest route round the bend.
Picture I guess the 400m in athletics and the advantage you would
have on the inside track if starting positions were not staggered.

Another factor that can induce draw bias is the ground.
It could be that the ground close to one of the rails is quicker than the
rest of the course and hence those horse drawn in the right position can
take best advantage of the better ground.

To give you an idea of how strong draw biases can be ponder Chester over
5 furlongs. 5f at Chester is a classic case of a draw bias resulting from track configuration.

Since 1997 horses drawn 1 (on the inside) have won 43 of 205
races which is better than winning 1 race in every five.

You would have made a profit backing all horses drawn 1 over that period.
Compare this to horses drawn 10 or higher who have combined to win just 1 race from 276 runners!

Knowledge of where Draw Bias is likely to occur is very important to have.

Draw Bias stats can be used in a variety of ways.

Well drawn horses should be given much more consideration when analyzing a race for example.
Conversely poorly drawn horses have a severe negative to overcome and
you should be wary if you wish to back them. You may use the draw to
eliminate all the weaker drawn horses in order to make the race easier.

Clearly occasionally these poorer drawn horses will win but overall the stats
will be in your favour. At some courses backing the best drawn horse or best
two drawn horses has made a long term profit – this is a rather simplistic way
of using the draw but it can be profitable.

Indeed you may want to consider backing the best drawn horses in forecasts and tricasts.
For example, looking at Thirsk over 5 furlongs – from 2005 to 2008 in 10+ runner handicaps
(the best races to use draw bias) if you had permed the highest four draws in twenty four
£1 straight tricasts in every race would have yielded a profit of £1265.24 (ROI +175.7%).
If you had permed the highest four draws in twelve £1 straight forecasts in every race would
have yielded a profit of £206.90 (ROI +57.5%).
This bet would have been landed in 12 of the 30 races (40% of races).
These types of forecast / tricast bet offer big returns for a relatively small outlay.

A further way to use Draw Bias information is to look for horses that run well
despite being hampered by a very serious draw bias against it.

A horse that comes 4th for example when very badly drawn could do much better
in a future race if on an equal draw or favourorable draw footing.

Dave Renham

Author Bio:

Dave Renham is a uk horse racing researcher who specialises
in cold hard facts and figures that can be used to open your eyes
to more informed betting propositions.

Draw Bias relative to each days racing is one area he covers in his excellent daily racing stats service.  For more info on this click here ==> Draw Bias