NH 500 Portfolio Horse Racing Tip

This free racing tip today is from a new method now available to full members over at PunterProfits.com.

So far it has been done on the quiet only to full members there.

There is no info on it as yet on the outer PunterProfits site.

Christened the NH 500 Portfolio the rough idea is that several well researched methodologies are combined into a single portfolio to provide a diversified approach.

The data below is the researched data.

Everything below is based on Starting  Price and as such is conservative compared to real life returns making use of betting Exchanges such as Betfair of bookmaker early prices especially those offer Best Odds Guaranteed.

Year wins Runs SR% Profit ROI%
2003 112 322 34.78 25.66 7.97
2004 82 257 31.91 6.53 2.54
2005 84 247 34.01 9.34 3.78
2006 88 286 30.77 134.62 47.07
2007 87 275 31.64 35.01 12.73
2008 78 275 28.36 20.95 7.62
2009 103 346 29.77 149.76 43.28
2010 103 333 30.93 58.95 17.70
2011 98 344 28.49 74.38 21.62
2012 75 243 30.86 103.14 42.44
Totals 910 2928 31.08 618.34 21.12

Looking to the future the key concept is one of educated risk.

History certainly looks very positive.

Only two past selections emailed out to PunterProfits.com full members so far.

One loser then a winner yesterday at 10/3 early odds.

 

There is one selection today from the above methodology

4.00 Fontwell – Venetian Lad – 9/1 BOG with William Hill , Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James

Such a tip is best viewed sensibly.

In no way is it a nailed on winner.

Based on long term stats data of 21% ROI and nothing else one might assess it to be a true 7/1 chance but with 9/1 available at the bookies.

So it will still lose 7 times out of 8 but that one winner in eight will give you a net profitover the long term.

Bet a few hundred such value horses and you should be well ahead.

Go contact PunterProfits if you want extra detail data on the NH 500 such as a detailed spreadsheet containing info on all 2928 past qualifiers.

Such data is useful for stage two of any good betting approach that being sensible and suitable bank roll management.

 

 

Horses Who Switch Stables

Horses Switching Stables – A Good Or Bad Thing?

As a punter one often looks for little clues pointing to a good bet.
One point that often attracts interest is when a horse is switched from one trainer to another.

Picture a young soccer player for example who had been with a lower league club
but who more recently switched sides and had the benefit of tuition from the likes of Arsne Wenger.
Would you expect him to improve his performance level a touch?

With horse racing switching to a new trainer can indeed have some impact.
However I feel myself it is perhaps point a bit like first time blinkers that may get
over reported and over bet as a result.

The reality is that a switch in trainer most often does not lead to a big gamble landed.

However some trainers are actually very very adapt at getting an improved run from a new horse in their care.
One untested theory could be their attitude.
eg do they send it out quickly to judge what it can do or do they train and improve
privately before unleashing the improved performer in a real race.

There is huge performance variation between trainers in this zone.

The obvious question to ask then is which trainers are very profitable to bet
when they have a new to them horse running for them and which should be avoided
by backers like the plague or layed on the betting Exchanges such as Betfair or betdaq.

This question has been answered for national hunt horses in an informative free article
over at PunterProfits.

Well worth a  read.

See Horses Who Switch Stables

Betting Exchange Trading Software

Have you heard of the scalpers trading the markets on Betfair?

A scalper is a person who holds a position for a very short period of time, attempting to make money off of the bid-ask spread. The scalper aims to make lots of very small profits with the idea that lots of small profits can add up.

And it is a lot easier and quicker to make a 1 tick profit than it is to make a 10 tick profit. The best markets for scalping on Betfair are the UK horseracing markets just before the start of the race.

A strict exit strategy must be implemented because one large loss could eliminate the many small gains that you have worked to obtain. Needless to say, discipline to get out of bad trades and risk management is extremely important and if implemented properly it is possible for a scalper to make consistent profits.

Another defining characteristic of scalpers is that they usually don’t know anything about what it is they are buying and selling. They don’t use fundamentals to base their trading decisions on but rather rely on familiar and predictable short term price patterns that they have learnt to recognize and exploit. A scalper doesn’t need to know anything about what he is buying and selling because often the fundamentals don’t apply to such a short term view.

This is true whether the scalper is buying and selling stocks, oil futures or horse racing prices. And the key to success scalping the betting Exchanges on Betfair is speed: the faster you take your profits the less risk you are taking, and the scalper avoids risk at all costs. Risk must be minimized as much as possible which means holding positions for the shortest possible amount of time.

One of the keys to trading in fast moving Betfair live show markets is speed of execution. The fastest finger will get the better prices.

Using the Betfair site itself will not really do. What you need is one click betting software that places bets almost instantaneously.

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Along with one click betting it comes with a raft of price chasing and hedging features.

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