CHELTENHAM  4.40

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP
HANDICAP CHASE (AMATEUR RIDERS) (CLASS 2)
(5yo+,0-140) 3m1f110y

Cheltenham 4.40

PRETTY STAR  £30 Each Way 25/1
BOWLEAVES £20 Each Way 25/1

Pretty Star is 25/1 with Tote-Betfred – Hills -Ladbrokes
Pretty Star is 25/1 with Skybet -Blue Sq – Paddy P
Bowleaves is 25/1 with Skybet -Betfred -Boyles -Bet365
Bowleaves is 22/1 with Corals -VC – Tote

Above prices valid at time of send to full members
For current odds see http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/thursday/4-40

7/1 Poker De Sivola, 8/1 Shouldhavehadthat, 9/1 Aggie’s Lad, 12/1 Alexanderthegreat, 12/1 Newbay Prop, 14/1 High Chimes, 16/1 Character Building, 20/1 Bowleaze, 20/1 Double Dizzy, 20/1 Go For One, 20/1 Irish Raptor, 22/1 Oodachee, 25/1 Arteea, 25/1 Butler’s Cabin, 25/1 Ice Tea, 25/1 Le Duc, 25/1 Le Toscan, 25/1 Pretty Star, 25/1 Sherwoods Folly, 33/1 Alright Now M’Lad, 33/1Brooklyn Breeze, 33/1 Openide, 40/1 Without A Doubt, 50/1 Warpath.

* This is an Amateur Riders Handicap Chase
* There has been 15 renewals since 1993
* There has been 65 handicap chases at this meeting
* Thats 65 handicap chases at every distance
* ARTEEA is out aged 10 absent 383 days
* Thats too much to do with 11st 12lbs
* Look at the 65 handicap chases at the festival
* Only 3 winners had 11st 8lbs or more in a 3-125 record
* Of those all 56 horses that came from Graded races lost
* ARTEEA fails that and is rejected
* CHARACTER BUILDING also fails that
* No handicap chase at the festival went to his type
* A Horse with 11st 8lbs unplaced last time out
* HIGH CHIMES also fails that and has 11st 12lbs
* In 65 Handicaps no horse had 11st 8lbs or more like him
* None were as inexperience or lost by as far as him last time
* ICE TEA fails the same statistics
* He has 11st 11lbs and didnt place last time out
* With his absence he looks opposable
* SHERWOODS FOLLY technically fails that as well
* He has 11st 8lbs and Pulled up last time
* No Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase went that way
* None went to a horse unplaced last time with that weight
* In 65 handicaps I looked at 7 year olds
* None won carrying 11st or more (0-40)
* SHERWOODS FOLLY is trying to become the first
* BUTLER´S CABIN also fails the same statistic
* There must be a chance he is being targeted at the National
* His weight and Absence also looks a problem
* He ought to need the run today and isnt for me
* I am oppisng exposed horses with 1 run this season
* None of the 65 Festival Handicaps went that way
* No horse won with 1 run that year when exposed
* None managed it with a months absence either
* WITHOUT A DOUBT fails that and is rejected
* LE DUC is out as exposed and having 1 run this year
* He comes from a Hunter Chase as well
* No Handicap at this festival went to a Hunter Chase runner
* WARPATH looks impossible to fancy
* OPENIDE looks very hard to fancy at the moment
* Horses aged 11 or more have a 0-55 record in this race
* BROOKLYN BREEZE fails that and is rejected
* He comes from a Hunter Chase and no horse did that
* No Hunter Chaser has won a Festival Handicap before
* ALEXANDERTHEGREAT is also out aged 11
* In 65 handicap chases over any trip at this festival
* Only 7 horses won aged 11 or more
* None of these defied a months break as he does
* LE TOSCAN comes from a Graduation Chase
* Horses not from handicaps were 0-42 in this race
* LE TOSCAN also has a 118 day break
* I looked at all 65 handicap chases at the festival
* No horse had 7 weeks off without coming from a handicap
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT comes from a Novice Handicap
* Horses that came from Novice races in this race were 0-42
* I looked at Novice Handicap Chasers in 65 Cheltenham races
* In the 65 races No horse won coming from a Novice Handicap
* All 19 lost and none managed a 1-2-3 placing in them
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT also has a 73 day absence
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In every handicap chase run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43) as he tries to
* Those that won last time out as he did were 0-41
* No horse managed it from any kind of Novice race
* The only 7yo winners of this race ran within a month
* In 65 handicaps I looked at 7 year olds
* None won carrying 11st or more (0-40)
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT fails that as well
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT has a lot to prove for me
* ALRIGHT NOW M´LAD has 11st 7lbs and an 8 week break
* In 65 English handicaps horses absent 7 weeks struggled
* Those like him with 11st or more were 2-88
* He doesnt look to be in good enough for for this
* BOWLEAZE has a similar problem
* He has a 11st 3lbs and a 96 day break
* OODACHEE has a very hard task
* He is absent 166 days yet a 10 year old and exposed
* He also has 11st 5lbs and steps up from 2m 4f
* AGGIE´S LAD was beaten 80 lengths in a Beginners Chase
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* That would be a big problem for me
* I am sure he is underpriced as he is trained by A Martin
* Irish runners have a miserable record in this as well
* GO FOR ONE has a lot of weight with 11st 5lbs
* In this race horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 3-101
* None were aged 10 or more as he is
* Those like him running within 7 weeks were 1-79
* He may just be handicapped a bit high
* NEWBAY PROP pulled up in this race last year
* He probably has a better chance this year
* He doesnt look to be that well handicapped
* An absence and his weight wont make it easy
* The 15 renewals of this race are interesting
* Horses that came from 22f or shorter were 1-63
* Thats a big worry for some horses in this race
* BUTLER´S CABIN -ALRIGHT NOW M´LAD
* OODACHEE -WARPATH -AGGIE´S LAD fail that
* Course winners have a weak 1-75 record in 15 years
* HIGH CHIMES -BUTLER´S CABIN -OPENIDE fail that
* IRISH RAPTOR -LE DUC ALEXANDERTHEGREAT fail that
* Exosed horses (21+ runs) with 1-2-3 runs that season were 0-37
* ARTEEA -BUTLER´S CABIN -BUTLER´S CABIN fail that
* WITHOUT A DOUBT -LE DUC -BROOKLYN BREEZE do
* Exposed horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time out score badly
* They have a poor 1-59 record
* OODACHEE -BOWLEAZE- LE DUC fail that
* BROOKLYN BREEZE also fails that
* No horse aged 10 or more had under 4 runs that season
* All 40 that tried lost in this race
* HIGH CHIMES – ARTEEA -WITHOUT A DOUBT fail that
* LE DUC – NEWBAY PROP -BROOKLYN BREEZE also fail that
* All 38 horses that came from a Novice race lost
* The following horses all fail this
* AGGIE´S LAD – SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT -POKER DE SIVOLA

POSSIBLES

* POKER DE SIVOLA has been the big gamble
* POKER DE SIVOLA is a 6 year old
* Horses aged under 7 like him are 0-19 in this race
* He also comes from a race that wasnt a handicap
* All past 15 winners of this came from a handicap
* In 65 Festival Handicaps only 6 winners were under 7 years old
* They struggled in the 3m handicaps (1-31)
* No horse that age were unplaced last time as he was
* Its a lot to do for a horse with 11st 3lbs in weight
* Especially for a horse with just 5 chase starts
* IRISH RAPTOR was unlucky last time crashing into a rail
* He is on a winning handicap mark from a top stable
* I wouldnt rule him out in this race but the jockey worries me
* He has just 4 rides and a Hunter Chase win and never ridden here
* IRISH RAPTOR may also be a small field horse
* DOUBLE DIZZY also has a lot of weight
* I dont think he is completely out of this
* I cant find a similar enough winner though

SELECTIONS

PRETTY STAR

* PRETTY STAR is pretty interesting
* He has a very similar profile to the 1998 and 2000 winners
* He also comes from the same prep race as the 1998 winner
* He comes from the same Ludlow Handicap 14 days ago
* His chance may depend on whether he has anything in hand
* PRETTY STAR has to be shortlisted

BOWLEAZE is almost statistically perfect but one or two
minor flawes but I forgive him that. He is from a stable that excel in this race. He is best fresh and several recent winners had his profile and I give him a massive chance in this race.

Venetia Williams may well prefer Alexanderthegreat to her
other runners one of whom I like a lot in PRETTY STAR.
You can argue that on the form of their last race its easier to prefer Alexanderthegreat – and I do think he is a danger but I disagree that he should be the stable choice and feel there are good reasons to prefer PRETTY STAR.

Guy Ward

To Visit Guys site click here ===> horse racing tips

2.00 Cheltenham – The Servo Computer Services Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 3½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Third and fourth favourites have provided 7 winners from 27 qualifiers and backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £22.50 (ROI +83.3%).

Position LTO: 10 of the 15 winners finished in the first three last time out.
Age: 5, 6 and 7 year olds have produced 7 winners from 32 qualifiers (SR 21.9%) showing a profit of £16.62 (ROI +51.9%).

Class LTO: 10 of the 15 winners raced in the same class last time out. Backing all 39 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.75 (ROI +50.5%).

Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £6.87 (ROI +57.3%).

Sex of horse: Fillies and mares have won 2 races from just 5 qualifiers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Second favourites have a dreadful record wins 0 wins from 15 runners.

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced only 2 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -56.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 20 qualifiers showing a loss of £4.63 (ROI -23.2%).

LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have recorded 4 wins from 25 qualifiers showing a small profit of £2.12 (ROI +8.5%).

Age: 8 year olds have produced 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 10 year olds have produced 2 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 11 year olds plus have won 2 from 11 (SR 18.2%).

Trends analysis: younger horses (5 to 7yos) have an excellent record winning 47% of the races from just 24% of the runners, and all such runners require very close scrutiny. Recent form seems fairly important with 10 of the 15 winners having finished in the first three on their last run. Third and fourth favourites have a good record, as do horses racing in the same class. In terms of price, horses priced in double figures not surprisingly struggle. The Pipe stable have done well in the past, but it should be noted that both David Pipe’s runners have been pulled up in the past two seasons.

Conclusion – Opera Mundi loves soft / heaby ground with 4 wins and a second from 5 runs on such ground. He is the preferred age bracket although his last run saw him fail to finish. Halcon Genelardais and Flintoff are other I quite like in this heat, but I’m going for Opera Mundi.

2.35 Cheltenham – this race tends to favour the front end of the betting. Barbers Shop is the most interesting for me. Henderson has recently had a poor record in chases at Cheltenham – losing run stretches back to an incredible 41 losers. However, this is a trainer who has previously had a great record in chases at this track and he will surely break the hoodoo soon. The stable have been cracking form and Barbers Shop should go very close. I also like Maljimar who has a good record fresh and well enough on easy ground. I am going split stake on the pair. At big odds Stan is interesting if he can get home in the ground.

3.10 Cheltenham – Sullumo is my pick is an trappy contest with dangers including Valerius.

3.45 Cheltenham – Qanta De Thaix has been backed off the boards having been in double figures on on Betfair last night. Any value has gone, but with the Pipe stable winning this four times in a row earlier in the decade, this is clearly a race they like. At a price I like Jocheski – was 33/1 at Ladbrokes early but 25s around now and bigger on Betfair. His 2nd at Hereford in May is solid form with the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th going on to win at least once since (admittedly the 3rd that day has won on the flat since and not over hurdles). Very close to an account bet but there are too mnay unexposed hurdlers in this for me to go in big.