AYR GOLD CUP TIP

This comes from Guy aka The Mathematician

To Visit Guys site click here ==> Horse Betting Advice

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I nailed my colours to Johnny Mudball’s mast in Fridays full member message.
Quite surprised Pricewise have tipped him too today.
I’m not sure there is any value in the price now
but full members would have backed him at 11/1 and 12/1 on Friday.

Arguably with pricewise coming in today and smashing the price down a touch
I should have picked a different race for you today here on the free blog.

I did get a few emails seeking thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup however
so thought it would be the most popular race to cover here today for you.

Find Current Best Odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-18/ayr/15-20/betting/

Personally looking at the stats for these races
I think IRISH HEARTBEAT has a better profile than
anything in either race and I am slightly more hopeful
that he will win the Silver Cup at 2.15pm. I plan a bit
on him around 9/1 or 10/1 but low stakes in this race.

This is my friday message on the Ayr Gold Cup

AYR 3.20

William Hill (Ayr) Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

11/2 Poet’s Place, 7/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 8/1 Victoire De Lyphar 10/1 Genki, 12/1 Jonny Mudball, Redford, 14/1 Evens And Odds 16/1 Tajneed, 16/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, 16/1 Hitchens 20/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 20/1 Jimmy Styles, 20/1 Knot In Wood 20/1 Signor Peltro, 20/1 Noverre To Go, 25/1 Damien 25/1 Parisian Pyramid, 25/1 Striking Spirit, 25/1 Partner 25/1 Prime Exhibit, Barney McGrew, 33/1 Castles In The Air 33/1 Quest For Success, 33/1 Flipando, 33/1 Damika
33/1 Arganil, 33/1 Johannes

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1992
* I have used the 18 renewals of this race
* I have used 156 similar Class 2 handicaps
* These 156 races came between August and October

THE DRAW

Most are saying High. It is the safest choice. Nobody has any clue.
They were saying “High” last year yet the low numbers had it in the 3 Gold Silver and Bronze Cup races.
Even if there is a bias some belive the pace of the race matters more.
I dont have a strong view. My research is based on Handicaps only at
Ayr at this trip and I looked at every Handicap here since 2003 with 15 or more runners.
What that tells me is Stall 1 has a poor record. It also tells me horses drawn 23 or higher are 1-85 and I
would be very wary about the very high draws. Overall though I intend to ignore the draw at this stage and see what looks best.

NEGATIVES

* VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR is a Negative for me
* He is 3 and has just 3 runs this year and a 50 day break
* There were 2 winners aged 3 in this race
* They both had twice as many runs this year as he does
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3 runs that season were 1-82
* Those with 5 + runs had a 0-69 record and he has 9 runs
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3 runs that season were 3-153
* Those absent a month with 5 + career runs were 0-50
* They say he is a Group horse. He will need to be
* Drawn 24 may not be the help some think it is
* VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR doesnt come out well enough
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Horses aged 8 or more struggle in these races
* They won 7 races in a 7-275 record
* None were absent more than a month
* KNOT IN WOOD fails that
* Those aged 8 or more with under 8 runs that year are 1-104
* KNOT IN WOOD fails that as well
* FLIPANDO is too old aged 9 to be dropping from 7f
* BARNEY MCGREW is all wrong aged 7 from a Group 1 race
* TAJNEED is 7 and has not run in 2 weeks
* Horses with that profile were 6-255
* Those with under 8 runs that season were 0-120
* TAJNEED only just fails that with 7 runs but he fails it
* Those without Group Class form were 0-86
* TAJNEED also lacks Group class form as well
* Horses aged 7 winning 2+ weeks ago were 0-18
* TAJNEED has an unsatisfactory profile
* He is a Ripon specialist and has a career high mark
* Since 1986 horses aged 7 or more are 1-100 in this race
* DAMIKA is 7 and has to come from a 7f race
* There were 2 winners in 156 races doing that
* Those beaten more than 4 + lengths last time were 0-45
* He has a career high mark and this may be too much for him
* JOHANNES is underraced for a 7 year old
* Drawn one I will be shocked if he wins this
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Exposed horses absent over a month have a weak 5-297 record
* In this race these horses have a 0-60 record
* Those without Group class form were just 1-125
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails this and looks weak
* EVENS AND ODDS is exposed and absent a month
* Horses in this race with that profile were 0-60
* In 156 similar races they were 5-297 but none like him
* Those that placed 1-2-3 last time out were 0-69
* JIMMY STYLES is exposed absent over a month
* It worries me he has just 4 runs this season
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH is exposed and absent over a month
* No 4 year olds were exposed and absent as long as that
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH looks unsafe to me
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses from Group races had a 2-60 record
* None were aged 6 or more like GENKI
* Exposed horses trying this were 1-38
* None were as lightly raced this season as he is
* He is trying to do what Advanced did in 2007
* Thats to come from the Haydock Group 1 sprint
* Advanced was an unexposed 4 year old though
* I cant match GENKI to any of the 156 winners
* He has a tough weight of 9st 8lbs to overcome
* Horses in this race with 9st 7lbs or more struggled
* Those with 13 + runs and that weight were 0-58
* GENKI doesnt appeal much to me
* CASTLES IN THE AIR is exposed and from a 7f Listed race
* He looks unsafe and I cant find a winner like him
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* He has no Group form and comes from a 6f handicap
* Horses doing that within 2 weeks had a 1-85 record
* That winner ran much better than he did last time
* He also had much less weight and more runs this year
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS doesnt come out like any winners
* STRIKING SPIRIT has exactly the same profile
* I see him as weak as well
* HAWKEYETHENOO has been absent 56 days
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses absent 7 weeks or more like him were 11-265
* Those that were exposed were 1-110
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that as he is exposed
* The only winner managing it was older
* He had more backclass as well
* In 156 races last time winners with 13 + runs won 58 races
* None were absent 7 weeks or more like him (0-32)
* Those absent over a Month were only 1-104
* That winner was an unexposed 4 year old
* HAWKEYETHENOO doesnt look right to me
* PARISIAN PYRAMID is an exposed 4yo
* He has no form higher than Class 2 and hasnt run in 2 weeks
* In 156 races horses with that profile were 2-74
* Those like him beaten last time were 0-64
* I cant match him to any of the 156 winners
* PARTNER is difficult to read coming from Ireland
* He is an unexposed 4yo absent over a month
* There were 3 winners like that in 156 races
* Those beaten 4 + lengths with that profile were 0-34
*  PARTNER hasnt really shown enough to consider
* HITCHENS is an exposed 5 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time out
* Horses with that profile had a 0-26 record
* Exposed 5 year olds that were 1-2-3 last time were 6-157
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 1-77
* Those with under 7 runs that season were 0-41
* HITCHENS only has 5 runs and is poor
* DAMIEN is an unexposed 4yo from a 7f handicap
* 2 of the 156 winners had that profile
* Neither of them won this race
* Neither had form in Group class before like him
* I didnt see enough I liked about him

POSSIBLES

* SIGNOR PELTRO is a 7yo
* Since 1986 horses aged 7 or more are 1-100 in this race
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses aged 7 or more from 6f handicaps in a month won races
* Those with No form in Group Class races were 6-141
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 1-62
* SIGNOR PELTRO just lacks enough runs this year
* He has a career high mark of 100 as well
* I dont think he will win but I feel he is a Possible
* ARGANIL looks shortlistable at a huge price
* He is hard to fancy admittedy
* He was only beaten 4.5 lengths in this race last year
* This year he has a better preparation and a lower mark
* ARANGIL is very similar to the 33/1 winner in 2004
* He came from well beaten in the Portland
* He also had Group form and was the same age
* ARANGIL has to be shortlisted at a big price
* His biggest problem may be his draw in stall 2
* PRIME EXHIBIT has a complicated profile
* I found 2 winners of similar races but none of this race
* 5 year olds with 13-20 runs and an absence of 7 + weeks
* I cant make him a negative so I’d shortlisting him
* REDFORD comes from an 8f race
* In 156 of these races there were 3 winners doing that
* 2 of them came in this race as well
* However they were all unexposed
* Exposed horses like REDFORD from 8f races were 0-40
* The horses from 8f races in this race were aged 3 and 4
* REDFORD is 5 and I cant match him to a winner
* With 1 run less I could so I would respect him
* POET´S PLACE is very hard to assess
* Being 5 with only 7 career starts makes him tricky to read
* Horses with that profile won 3 races
* Those with No Group class form had a 1-1 record
* That winner had less weight and a long absence
* He didnt win last time either
* 2 Portland winners have won this race
* They were both younger though confusing things more
* Overall I would play on the safe side and shortlist him
* NOVERRE TO GO comes from the Stewards Cup
* There were 2 winners of this race doing that
* Both were unexposed 4 year olds like him
* They had 10 and 11 runs and he has 16 runs
* Thats close enough for me
* Unexposed 4 year olds won this race 6 times
* 2 of the last 3 winners were unexposed 4 year olds
* With fast ground NOVERRE TO GO could go close

STRONG PROFILE

JONNY MUDBALL

* JONNY MUDBALL has a very smart profile
* JONNY MUDBALL is 4 and absent 49 days
* 4 year olds absent over a Month won 9 races
* Those with 7-12 runs like him won 5 races
* Those with Class 2 form made that a 5-14 record
* Extract those that were not beaten 4 + lengths last time
* Those that came from a 6f handicap had a 4-5 record
* Those that started under 33/1 had a 4-4 record
* Horses with his profile had a 4-4 record
* The 1996 and 2001 winners of this race had this profile
* They both came from the Stewards cup like him
* He is very similar to 1996 winner Coastal Bluff

Find Current Best Odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-18/ayr/15-20/betting/