Hennessy Racing Tip

Hennessy Racing Tip

This fairly comprehensive Hennessy analysis was provided by Guy Ward.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
Sky VC Tote

Cheltenham Statistics

Advised Bets - Opera Mundi (2.00 Cheltenham) – win  ( 10/3 at Betfred )
Maljimar 14/1 Tote / Barbers Shop 7/1 Tote (2.35 Cheltenham) – 2 x half stakes win bets

Firstly some 15 year statistics for the 2.00 at
Cheltenham.

2.00 Cheltenham – The Servo Computer Services Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 3½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Third and fourth favourites have provided 7 winners from 27 qualifiers and backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £22.50 (ROI +83.3%).

Position LTO: 10 of the 15 winners finished in the first three last time out.
Age: 5, 6 and 7 year olds have produced 7 winners from 32 qualifiers (SR 21.9%) showing a profit of £16.62 (ROI +51.9%).

Class LTO: 10 of the 15 winners raced in the same class last time out. Backing all 39 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.75 (ROI +50.5%).

Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £6.87 (ROI +57.3%).

Sex of horse: Fillies and mares have won 2 races from just 5 qualifiers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Second favourites have a dreadful record wins 0 wins from 15 runners.

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced only 2 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -56.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 20 qualifiers showing a loss of £4.63 (ROI -23.2%).

LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have recorded 4 wins from 25 qualifiers showing a small profit of £2.12 (ROI +8.5%).

Age: 8 year olds have produced 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 10 year olds have produced 2 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 11 year olds plus have won 2 from 11 (SR 18.2%).

Trends analysis: younger horses (5 to 7yos) have an excellent record winning 47% of the races from just 24% of the runners, and all such runners require very close scrutiny. Recent form seems fairly important with 10 of the 15 winners having finished in the first three on their last run. Third and fourth favourites have a good record, as do horses racing in the same class. In terms of price, horses priced in double figures not surprisingly struggle. The Pipe stable have done well in the past, but it should be noted that both David Pipe’s runners have been pulled up in the past two seasons.

Conclusion – Opera Mundi loves soft / heaby ground with 4 wins and a second from 5 runs on such ground. He is the preferred age bracket although his last run saw him fail to finish. Halcon Genelardais and Flintoff are other I quite like in this heat, but I’m going for Opera Mundi.

2.35 Cheltenham – this race tends to favour the front end of the betting. Barbers Shop is the most interesting for me. Henderson has recently had a poor record in chases at Cheltenham – losing run stretches back to an incredible 41 losers. However, this is a trainer who has previously had a great record in chases at this track and he will surely break the hoodoo soon. The stable have been cracking form and Barbers Shop should go very close. I also like Maljimar who has a good record fresh and well enough on easy ground. I am going split stake on the pair. At big odds Stan is interesting if he can get home in the ground.

3.10 Cheltenham – Sullumo is my pick is an trappy contest with dangers including Valerius.

3.45 Cheltenham – Qanta De Thaix has been backed off the boards having been in double figures on on Betfair last night. Any value has gone, but with the Pipe stable winning this four times in a row earlier in the decade, this is clearly a race they like. At a price I like Jocheski – was 33/1 at Ladbrokes early but 25s around now and bigger on Betfair. His 2nd at Hereford in May is solid form with the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th going on to win at least once since (admittedly the 3rd that day has won on the flat since and not over hurdles). Very close to an account bet but there are too mnay unexposed hurdlers in this for me to go in big.

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This Message was provided by Dave Renham of Racing Trends

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport
The National Hunt season starts in earnest this weekend as Cheltenham hosts the Open Meeting, with the highlight coming on Saturday afternoon in the form of the Gold Cup Chase. The two early Premiership leaders will be looking to gain an advantage in one of the most competitive Premiership races in years this weekend. Liverpool are in action first when they travel to Bolton on Saturday lunch time, while Chelsea must wait until later that day to face bottom side West Bromwich Albion. On Sunday Everton host Middlesbrough as seventh meets eighth, while Hull look to continue their bright start when they host Manchester City.

Weekend Horse Racing

Cheltenham hosts the first jumps festival of the new season this weekend, with the three day Open Meeting. The highlight is the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at 2:35pm on Saturday, where Silverburn is the 10/3 favourite at VCbet, with Imperial Commander, a 6/1 shot with Pagebet, and Barbers Shop at 8/1 with BGBET following closely behind in the betting.

Last years winning trainer Ferdy Murphy is looking to defend the crown he won with 13/2 chance L’Antartique, and his challenger this year is Three Mirrors. However another success would be even more impressive this time round as Three Mirrors is currently a 40/1 outsider with both Pagebet and BGBET.

Existing Pagebet customers! Have FIVE outright win bets of £25 or more on any FIVE different races at Cheltenham over the 3 days of the festival, and Pagebet will give you a free £25 bet. 1

If your horse falls in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at 2.35pm Cheltenham on Saturday, we will refund your win stakes in the form of free bets.2

Free Fall…

All races at Cheltenham (Saturday & Sunday)

If your selection FALLS, VCbet will refund your losing stake as a free bet on the following day’s racing!3

Weekend Football

Bolton v Liverpool, Saturday, Sky Sports 1, 12:45pm

Liverpool are the first of the leaders to play this weekend, and they will want to leave the Reebok with a three point lead over Chelsea after their game against Bolton. After their stutter against Tottenham the Reds looked to be back on form last week against West Brom as they ran out 3-0 winners. Robbie Keane scored his first Premier League goals for Liverpool at Anfield as his brace sealed the game before half time. Bolton have had a mini revival of late which has seen them climb from the relegation to mid table. They beat upstarts Hull 1-0 last time out, and that came on the back of a 2-0 win over Man City at the Reebok.

Bolton are 5/1 with BGBET to continue their good form, while Liverpool are 3/5 with Pagebet to build their lead at the top of the Premiership.

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West Bromwich Albion v Chelsea, Saturday, Setanta Sports 1, 5:30pm

Chelsea travel to the Hawthorns on Saturday evening for a possible top v bottom clash. Going into the weekend they were top thanks to their goal difference, which is down to new coach Phil Scolari’s attacking mentality. They have scored 16 goals in their last 5 Premiership games, and the West Brom defence will have to hold strong to withstand the formidable Chelsea attack. The Baggies will certainly have to put on a better performance than they have done so far against other sides from the “Big Four”, as Liverpool beat them 3-0 last week, while Manchester United put four past them in October.

West Brom are a massive 7/1 outsider with CentreBet to cause a huge upset, while Chelsea are 2/7 with BGBET to move back to the top of the Premiership.

If Florent Malouda scores at anytime during West Brom v Chelsea, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

Everton v Middlesbrough, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 1:30pm

Two sides who have had promising starts to the campaign meet on Sunday when Middlesbrough travel to Goodison to face Everton. Everton will be full of confidence as they have won their last three Premiership games, although in each of these games they have only scored in the last ten minutes. This knack of scoring late goals was demonstrated in its most startling effect at West Ham last week, when they scored three times in the last ten minutes to come form a goal behind to win 3-1. Boro have also left it late in scoring in their last two games, as Tuncay’s 88th minute winner at Villa Park last week followed Mido’s 83rd minute goal at West Ham the week before that gave the Teesider’s a 1-1 draw.
Everton are 4/5 with Pagebet to stretch their unbeaten run to five games, with Boro 7/2 at CentreBet to continue their recent good run of form.

If Marouane Fellaini scores at anytime during Everton v Middlesbrough, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

If Everton v Middlesbrough finishes 0-0 BGBET will refund all losing correct score bets on that game.4

Hull v Manchester City, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 4:00pm

Despite their excellent start Hull will be looking to win for the first time in four Premiership games when they welcome Manchester City to the KC Stadium on Sunday. Last week’s 1-0 defeat to Bolton showed how far the Tiger’s have come this season, as many people were shocked that the Premiership new boys were beat by an established Premiership side. Prior to that game they had been brought back down to earth with successive defeats against Man Utd. and Chelsea, although they did push the Champions close at Old Trafford. Manchester City will also be looking for their first league win in four, although their pre-season expectations would have been considerably higher than Hulls. However, the addition of Robinho and Wright-Phillips has not transformed the side in the way many believed, and they will want to leave Humberside on Sunday night with some points as they prepare for a spending spree in January.
Hull are 19/10 with VCbet to continue their excellent start to the season, while BGBET make Manchester City 13/10 at the KC Stadium.

If Shaun Wright Phillips scores at anytime during Hull v Manchester City, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

Place a correct score bet on any of the above matches this week, and if it gets beat by an injury time goal BGBET will refund all losing correct score stakes on that match.¹

1st SCORER 2nd CHANCE

Applies to all Premier League matches this weekend

Place a First Goal scorer bet and if your player fails to score the first goal but scores at any other time in the match we’ll refund your stake as a free bet on any future match.5

Open an account with any of the following bookmakers and receive a free bet:

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