Weekend Football Betting

Weekend Football Betting Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United

Sunday 19th April 1.30pm ko Live on Sky

H2H in Premier League

2008/2009
21/12/2008 Newcastle 2-1 Tottenham
2007/2008
30/03/2008 Tottenham 1-4 Newcastle
22/10/2007 Newcastle 3-1 Tottenham
2006/2007
14/01/2007 Tottenham 2-3 Newcastle
23/12/2006 Newcastle 3-1 Tottenham
2005/2006
01/04/2006 Newcastle 3-1 Tottenham
31/12/2005 Tottenham 2-0 Newcastle
2004/2005
10/04/2005 Tottenham 1-0 Newcastle
21/08/2004 Newcastle 0-1 Tottenham
2003/2004
14/03/2004 Tottenham 1-0 Newcastle
13/12/2003 Newcastle 4-0 Tottenham r

HOME/AWAY AVERAGES (LAST 20 GAMES) TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR – HOME

WON 7 35% 15/8
DRAW 7 35% 15/8
LOST 6 30% 23/10
OVER 2.5 GOALS 6 30% 23/10
UNDER 2.5 GOALS 14 70% 2/5
FOUR GOALS OR MORE 3 15% 11/2
0-0 DRAW 4 20% 4/1

NEWCASTLE UNITED – AWAY

WON 3 15% 11/2
DRAW 8 40% 6/4
LOST 9 45% 6/5
OVER 2.5 GOALS 13 65% 8/15
UNDER 2.5 GOALS 7 35% 15/8
FOUR GOALS OR MORE 6 30% 23/10
0-0 DRAW 3 15% 11/2

H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS – 11 LEAGUE GAMES)

OVER 2.5 GOALS 7 64% 4/7
UNDER 2.5 GOALS 4 36% 7/4
FOUR GOALS OR MORE 6 55% 5/6
0-0 DRAW 0 0% -

THIS SEASONS GOAL AVERAGES PER GAME

THE PREMIERSHIP 2.5 HOME AWAY
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR 2.3 1.6 3
NEWCASTLE UNITED 2.8 3 2.6

CURRENT FORM TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR - LAST FIVE GAMES

Premier League 07/03/2009 Sunderland 1-1 Tottenham DRAW
Premier League 15/03/2009 Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham WON
Premier League 21/03/2009 Tottenham 1-0 Chelsea WON
Premier League 04/04/2009 Blackburn 2-1 Tottenham LOST
Premier League 11/04/2009 Tottenham 1-0 West Ham WON

NEWCASTLE UNITED - LAST FIVE GAMES

Premier League 04/03/2009 Newcastle 1-2 Man Utd LOST
Premier League 14/03/2009 Hull 1-1 Newcastle DRAW
Premier League 21/03/2009 Newcastle 1-3 Arsenal LOST
Premier League 04/04/2009 Newcastle 0-2 Chelsea LOST
Premier League 11/04/2009 Stoke 1-1 Newcastle DRAW

TEAM NEWS Roman Pavlyuchenko and Jermaine Jenas are both struggling with injuries and are rated doubtful.   Jermaine Defoe is back in training and could be involved for Tottenham.   Obafemi Martins, Steven Taylor Jose Enrique and Peter Lovenkrands are all doubts for Newcastle.   Joey Barton remains on the sidelines but Mark Viduka is back in the squad.

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR Squad: Gomes, Corluka, King, Woodgate, Assou-Ekotto, Huddlestone, Lennon, Jenas, Bent, Modric, Keane, Palacios, Pavlyuchenko, Cudicini, Bale, Zokora, Bentley, Dawson, Chimbonda, O’Hara, Hutton, Campbell.  

NEWCASTLE UNITED Squad:Harper, Forster, Krul, Beye, Bassong, Coloccini, S. Taylor, Edgar, Cacapa, Butt, Duff, R. Taylor, Gutierrez, Nolan, Guthrie, Lovenkrands, Geremi, Smith, Martins, Owen, Viduka, Carroll, Xisco, Ranger.      

TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE ONLY)

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR                                               NEWCASTLE UNITED

PLAYER Goals PLAYER Goals
Darren Bent 10 Michael Owen 8
Aaron Lennon 5 Obafemi Martins 7
Roman Pavlyuchenko 5 Shola Ameobi 4
Jermaine Jenas 3 Damien Duff 3
Robbie Keane 3 Steven Taylor 3
Jermain Defoe 2 Andrew Carroll 3

THE ORACLE’S MATCH PRICES (100% BOOK)

TOTTENHAM                 7/10      59%

DRAW                          14/5      26%

NEWCASTLE                11/2      15%      

ANALYSIS MATCH:   Tottenham are the form team coming into this one with five wins out of seven in the league. They were on course for six out of seven at Blackburn two weeks ago before a poor refereeing decision reduced them to ten men and they conceded two late goals. Tottenham’s form under Harry Redknapp has improved dramatically and they are now on course for a UEFA cup spot.   Newcastle are seven games without a win and have won once in sixteen. They are running out of games and have to start winning soon if they are to have any chance of staying up. Alan Shearer will be targeting three points from this one as a draw simply isn’t good enough at this stage of the season. Newcastle actually have a very good recent record against Tottenham, winning the last six in a row. However, those victories came under different managers and with better players. This current Newcastle side has one just three of their last twenty away games and I’ll be very surprised if they make it seven in a row on Sunday.   Newcastle have drawn twelve of their thirty two games this season which is more than any other Premiership side. At 3.9 on Betfair, the draw is possibly the value call in this market. However, with the carrot of European football in front of them and a near fully fit squad, I think Spurs will probably take all three points.

GOALS:   There is a strong history of high scoring games in this fixture with the last seven in a row featuring three or more and averaging 3.6 goals per game. Newcastle have one of the highest goals per game averages in the division at 2.8 goals per game and have kept just one clean sheet in their last fifteen. It is no coincidence that Shay Given left the club in January. Tottenham on the other hand have only averaged 2.3 goals per game and White Hart Lane has seen fewer goals than any other Premiership ground this season. I think this is partially down to Tottenham struggling in front of goal earlier this season and now that everyone is fit they look to have plenty of goals in the team.   There has never been a goal less draw between these two sides in the history of the Premiership. Newcastle have also scored more goals against Spurs than any other Premiership club. I think this could be an open game with both teams going for the win and consequently, I think evens about over 2.5 goals looks a bit of value here.

GOALSCORERS:   Robbie Keane is Tottenham’s main goal threat but at 13/8 doesn’t offer particular value. Newcastle’s Michael Owen does appear to be a shade of value at 11/4 to score anytime with PaddyPower. Owen has missed a large part of the season through injury but has fantastic goals to game ratio when he does play. He has had a few games to build up match fitness now and I expect to see his name on the score sheet sooner rather than later.  

RECOMMENDATIONS 1pt over 2.5 Goals evens Ladbrokes or 2.04 Betfair

Best Wishes

The Oracle

Football-Bets

Saturday Premier League Bet

Stoke v Newcastle Saturday 11th April 5.30pm ko Live on Setanta  

H2H in Premier League

2008/2009
06/12/2008 Newcastle United 2-2 Stoke City

HOME/AWAY AVERAGES (LAST 20 GAMES) STOKE – HOME (LAST 15 GAMES)

WON 8 53% 9/10
DRAW 4 27% 11/4
LOST 3 20% 4/1
OVER 2.5 GOALS 5 33% 2/1
UNDER 2.5 GOALS 10 67% 1/2
FOUR GOALS OR MORE 3 20% 4/1
0-0 DRAW 2 13% 7/1

NEWCASTLE – AWAY

WON 3 15% 11/2
DRAW 8 40% 6/4
LOST 9 45% 6/5
OVER 2.5 GOALS 13 65% 8/15
UNDER 2.5 GOALS 7 35% 15/8
FOUR GOALS OR MORE 6 30% 23/10
0-0 DRAW 3 15% 11/2

H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS – 1 LEAGUE GAME)

OVER 2.5 GOALS 1 100% -
UNDER 2.5 GOALS 0 0% -
FOUR GOALS OR MORE 1 100% -
0-0 DRAW 0 0% -

THIS SEASONS GOAL AVERAGES PER GAME

THE PREMIERSHIP 2.5 HOME AWAY
STOKE 2.5 2.1 2.9
NEWCASTLE 2.8 3 2.6

CURRENT FORM STOKE – LAST FIVE GAMES

Premier League 01/03/2009 Aston Villa 2-2 Stoke DRAW
Premier League 04/03/2009 Stoke 2-0 Bolton WON
Premier League 14/03/2009 Everton 3-1 Stoke LOST
Premier League 21/03/2009 Stoke 1-0 Middlesbrough WON
Premier League 04/04/2009 West Brom 0-2 Stoke WON

NEWCASTLE – LAST FIVE GAMES

Premier League 01/03/2009 Bolton 1-0 Newcastle LOST
Premier League 04/03/2009 Newcastle 1-2 Man Utd LOST
Premier League 14/03/2009 Hull 1-1 Newcastle DRAW
Premier League 21/03/2009 Newcastle 1-3 Arsenal LOST
Premier League 04/04/2009 Newcastle 0-2 Chelsea LOST

TEAM NEWS Newcastle are without defenders Steven Taylor and Jose Enrique.   Joey Barton and Mark Viduka are closing in on a return but won’t start training again until next week.   Forwards Shola Ameobi and Peter Lovenkrands also remain on the sidelines.   Stoke have the luxury of a near fully fit squad to choose from, Mamady Sidibe is their only absentee.  

STOKE Squad: Sorensen, Wilkinson, Shawcross, Abdoulaye Faye, Higginbotham, Lawrence, Delap, Whelan, Etherington, Beattie, Fuller, Simonsen, Pugh, Cresswell, Olofinjana, Kelly, Camara, Sonko, Amdy Faye, Diao, Cort, Tonge, Griffin.    

NEWCASTLE Squad:Harper, Forster, Krul, Beye, Bassong, Coloccini, Edgar, Cacapa, Butt, Duff, R. Taylor, Gutierrez, Nolan, Guthrie, Geremi, Smith, Martins, Owen, Carroll, Xisco, Ranger.      

TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE ONLY)

STOKE                                                                         NEWCASTLE

PLAYER Goals PLAYER Goals
Ricardo Fuller 8 Michael Owen 8
James Beattie 6 Obafemi Martins 7
Mamady Sidibe 3 Shola Ameobi 4
Ryan Shawcross 3 Damien Duff 3
Rory Delap 2 Steven Taylor 3
Abdoulaye Faye 2 Peter Lövenkrands 2

THE ORACLE’S MATCH PRICES (100% BOOK)

STOKE                          5/4      44%

DRAW                          12/5      29%

NEWCASTLE                11/4      27%      

ANALYSIS

MATCH:   Stoke’s win at West Brom last week was their first on the road this season. It moved them six points clear of the relegation zone and was their third win in four games. They are now unbeaten in six and victory over Newcastle tomorrow would move them nine points clear of the drop zone. Stoke’s home record is up there with that of the big four and they are unbeaten at the Britannia stadium by anyone outside the top six. It is a very difficult place to go and Stoke have kept four clean sheets in their last five home games.

Newcastle on the other hand, are a team in deep trouble. They have no wins in six and just one win from their last fifteen. The club has been nothing short of a circus this season and whilst the appointment of Alan Shearer as manager has pleased the fans, it could well be the final nail in the coffin. Shearer has no experience of management whatsoever and will be hard pressed to get performances out of the same limited pool of talent that far more experienced managers failed with. If we compare his appointment to that of Kevin Keegan, we can see that Keegan took eight games to win his first game. Shearer has just seven to keep Newcastle up.   Appalling away form has been a problem several different Newcastle managers have failed to solve. This season, the Geordies have won just two of fifteen away games. Last season they won just three of nineteen. Going back to the start of last season therefore, Newcastle have won five out of thirty four away games. That’s a win percentage of just fifteen and the equivalent fixed odds price is 11/2. We can say, therefore, that since the start of last season, the true chances of a Newcastle victory away from home is represented by odds of 11/2. Consequently, it is strange that Newcastle are as short as 7/4 to beat Stoke tomorrow considering this price represents 36%, more than double their average win ratio?   Newcastle have lost one of the best keepers in the league in Shay Given, and will be without Steven Taylor and Jose Enrique at the back tomorrow. The loss of Taylor could be especially painful as he would have played an important role against a very direct Stoke side with a significant aerial threat. Joey Barton is still missing in midfield and Michael Owen and Obafemi Martins are still struggling for sharpness after long injury layoffs.   Stoke fought back from two goals down to earn a point at St James’ Park earlier in the season and are more than capable of winning on their own patch. I think that the “Shearer affect” has been given far too much weight and it is interesting to see that Ladbrokes and the Tote are just 6/5 about a home win. The 8/5 on offer by Coral is definite value.

GOALS:   Stoke home games average just 2.1 goals per game whilst Newcastle away average 2.6. Under 2.5 goals is rightfully favourite but offers little value at 8/11. The reverse fixture earlier in the season saw four goals but a repeat is unlikely tomorrow. Stoke have been a lot more solid at the back recently and with Owen and Martins lacking sharpness, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stoke win to nil.

GOALSCORERS:   James Beattie has bagged six goals for Stoke since signing in January and is a fair price at 15/8 to score anytime with Corals. He should also be on penalty duty and is just 5/4 with Hills. If you want a few quid on someone at a bigger price then you could do worse than backing Ryan Shawcross at 25/1 with Victor Chandler to score the first goal. Shawcross has been particularly dangerous from set pieces recently scoring in three of Stoke’s last five games.

RECOMMENDATIONS 2PTS STOKE TO BEAT NEWCASTLE 8/5 Coral

Best Wishes

The Oracle

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