Free Soccer Betting Tip For Saturday

Two winners from two tips here last week from ex bookmaker Phil

See http://www.sports-betting-blog.co.uk/saturday-free-football-betting-tips/

 

Hopefully another winner today from him

Here is his free soccer betting tip for this weekend.

No Premiership betting action this weekend and he is off to the lower leagues.

 

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Hartlepool v Doncaster (3:00pm)
Doncaster 0 in the ASIAN Handicap at 10/11 (1.91) Pinnacle 1.25pts

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More additional action for his private clients in his member area.

Raid your copper collection and put together one single quid

and you can get in to see what he advises for the next two weeks.

See his stite at == > Football Bets

 

Euro 2012 – Great Free Stuff

There is an excellent FREE Euro 2012 research doc

over at ProGamblerBriefs.

Go Get Yours Now

There is a lot of great content in it you will enjoy.

It’s key purpose however to demonstrate the style of a more comprehensive
paid for version.

The full version is 230 pages of data any punter should be keen to read.

It is aimed at professionally minded punters seekign the edge attention to
fine detail can bring.

Should you invest in the full version there is a not too insignificant bonus.

The author will provide notes and analysis on daily matches via web site
and email.

The value of this aspect is perhasp undersold in the site.

To give you a better feel as to his credibility see an extract from his notes
for today

at the base of this email.

This is about half his message.

He also covers the Russia game in simillar fashion.

Actual final confirmed tip is removed from here but he does have a few for
today.

They are available in the site member area to those who

buy the big research report tournament daily notes package.

Anyhow..thumbs up from me.

I did help put his site up so am not 100% impartial.

Any of you who are long in the tooth however about your punting will

see this is quality stuff and well above the norm of usual drival out there.

At the very least go
get the free stuff.

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Euro 2012 Day One 8 June 2012

And so it begins, a (number) day festival of football kicks off today at
tea-time with hosts Poland facing Greece. Russia play the Czech Republic later.

Fridays Fixtures:

Group A: Poland v Greece (Warsaw, 1700)

Group A: Russia v CzechRepublic (Wroclaw, 1945)

Before looking at the first game specifically it is probably worth looking
at the phenomenon of nervy opening day games at The Euros.

The Record Of Host Nations In The Tournament Curtain-Raiser

On first look it is hard to get animated about backing Poland for three points
at a short-ish best price of around 2.08 (-0.5) Asian Handicap.

With just two of the last eight nations to host or co-host the Euro Finals
obliging in their opening match – clearly nerves and the weight of national
expectation must always be factored into any calculations.

Poland will have the crowd, sure, but will the vocal backing inspire or inhibit
a new Poland side that are still to play their first competitive game together
after a program of friendlies since the World Cup qualifiers for South Africa
2010 ended in 2009?

Looking at the opening games of the last eight Euros final tournaments since
1988, West Germany, Sweden, England, Portugal, Switzerland and Austria have
all failed to claim a win on their tournament bow. The only opening day winners
in that time period were co-hosts Holland and Belgium in 2000. As hosts, Portugal,
Switzerland and Austria were all beaten while West Germany, Sweden and England
all played out 1-1 draws.

In general terms, the hosts have generally recovered from that initial flat
performance. West Germany, Sweden and England all reached the semi-finals
when they hosted their Euros. Indeed Portugal went one better finishing as
runners-up to Greeces setpiece winner in 2004 and they were arguably quite
unlucky not to lift the Henri Delaunay trophy.

However, that doesnt really give us a great steer on what to do specifically
with todays curtain raiser in Warsaw. For that we will need to dig into the
notes….

Group A: Poland v Greece (Warsaw, 1700)

Venue: National Stadium, Warsaw

The new national stadium is due to host the opening match between Poland and
Greece, games between Poland v Russia and Greece v Russia, a quarter-final,
and a semi-final of the UEFA Euro 2012 hosted jointly by Poland and Ukraine.

It is a multi-use stadium but crucially it doesnt have an athletics track.
That is great for producing an electric atmosphere in the ground. The capacity
is 58,000. As Polands top-rated stadium there are no issues. The stadium is
a positive for the home side.

Referee: Carlos Velasco Carballo (Spain)

“Velasco Carballo had his debut in the Spanish Primera Division in 2004.
He moved up to the UEFA elite category at the start of 2011.

In two years he graduated from the lower slopes of La Liga to the knock-out
stage of the Europa League: a very quick, indeed a worryingly quick apprenticeship
– especially so as at times Velasco Carballo has averaged as many as
six cards per game at certain points in Spain. Does that indicate a rashness
born of a lack of experience? If so, it could rear its ugly head at Euro 2012,
the refs first major international tournament.

The Spaniard must be considered to be a very inexperienced referee at this
level with only 34 top level games under his belt as a professional ref.

Match reports from The Champions League 2011-2012 Quarter final between Marseille
v Bayern Munich of 28th April 2012 definitely sets the alarm bells ringing.

The ref appears to have got caught up in the pace of the game which led to
him rewarding a rash of cards in the first half where not all these cards
were convincing. As the reviewer reports: “His decisions were okay,
his card policy remained a mystery to me and his fierce style is not to my
liking.”

I would be concerned that Velasco Carballos style of refereeing could lead
to overreaction under pressure at Euro 2012 and also to broken up games where
the flow of play could be severely disturbed by fussy refereeing.

The ref could be one to avoid if you are looking for goals and a flowing game
to bet in play.

He might be one to consider though if you are looking at high card mark-ups
or to back a sending off in specific games. Mr Velasco Carballo hasnt flashed
a red yet in anger but my sense is that he may not respond well to the increased
scrutiny of Euro 2012 as a result of his relative inexperience. I could easily
see him getting card happy as he loses the plot….He is one to treat with
care.”

The Game

Goran says: “In 2004 Greece had an identity, inspired by Rehagel, and
a gameplan that the players bought into, believed in and took confidence from.
Identity, belief, confidence these are massively valuable commodities at the
top levels of football where details, even the slightest edge can decide a
result.

But the Greece from 2004 and the latest Greece incarnation have nothing in
common.”

Greece travel with one of the weakest teams in the tournament. Gekas, Salpigidis
and Samaras as are not top level strikers. What we can expect from the Greeks
in this tournament is fighting spirit, early crosses from the flanks, deep
defending and counter attacking.

This Greece team will have problem holding onto the ball in attacking situations.
There is no-one capable of playing with their back to goal and linking the
play in the front three. Gekas is a veteran who only comes alive with a sight
of goal. At his best Samaras is a decent channel runner but he lacks heart,
strength and the consistency of technique required of an international frontman
in a serious side. The Celtic misfit is a jack of all trades and a master
of none. Salpigidis is full of energy but lacks football intelligence –
like Gekas his only interest is getting on the end of chances in space.

In midfield, the skipper Karagounis was a wonderful player and a hero of
2004, but he is way past his best. The rest of them are honest performers
but no more than that unless they hit a very good day.

The big negative for Greece is the injury to star man Sotiris Ninis the so-called
Greek Messi. He has been injured for the majority of the season and seems
really unlikely to start although he could feature from the bench. Ninis energy
is important to a Greek midfield that otherwise lacks mobility and pace.

Poland are a work in progress – not least because they havent played
competitively since 2009 and this is a new-look side that takes advantage
of the widely spread Polish diaspora for recruiting its personnel.

Despite that the experienced coach Franciszek Smuda claims he has known virtually
his entire starting XI for better or for worse for some time, and in the likes
of Borussia Dortmund trio Jakub Blaszczykowski, Robert Lewandowski and Lukasz
Piszczek, alongside the Arsenal goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny he does have
a decent core at his disposal.

After a bold experiment that ended with a 6-0 hammering from Spain in Murcia,
Smudas lesson has been the one usually learned sooner rather than later by
coaches of limited teams. He has reconciled himself to the fact that in order
to successful he has to fit the system to the players he has – rather
than the opposite way around.

We should be prepared for counter-attacking football and for Poland to do
everything they can to support Lewandowski. That should mean direct, one-touch,
fast-played football, based on exploiting the talents of the squads few key
individuals rather than looking for an overall team-based pattern.

With a stronger spine to their side thanks to the Borussia Dortmund trio of
Lukasz Piszczek, Jakub Blaszczykowski (c) and Robert Lewandowski and with
Poland having the home crowd right behind them at a closed stadium (without
a perimeter running track) they simply have to fancy their chances in this
one. And it is a game they will have earmarked as a massive opportunity for
three points.

There is one obvious negative too.

At last count Smuda has eight players (more than a third of this Poland squad)
that could go to Euro 2012 shrouded in doubts on the back of poor form or
injury-hit seasons (or both). For a new Poland team, without the experience
forged by playing together in meaningful competitive internationals to fall
back upon, it is hard to see just how this Poland team will be able to hit
the ground running. They could be just starting to gel together as a side
by the time they play their third fixture in an albeit easy group.

Spain destroyed Poland with goals and shots flying in from everywhere two
years ago. Now the defending is allegedly much improved but it remains untested
in the heat of a proper game. Lack of communication between unfamiliar players
could be an issue and that must make them vulnerable at setpieces and against
midfield runners. Karagounis setpieces are a danger but at least midfield
runners will be in short supply for Greece.

Verdict

Poland look like the likelier winners here they have the better key men in
the Borussia Dortmund trio and home advantage in a tight, atmospheric ground
should boost them greatly.

The negatives are the general fear factor for opening day host sides, the
lack of team cohesion for Poland as a result of being a new side with no competitive
games having been played since 2009.

The referee is a wild card in this game. He could be out of his depth but
if anything he looks more likely to end up favouring the home side in his
decisions in terms of red cards and penalty awards.

Summary Of Todays Selections:

Giorgos Karagounis to be shown a card v Poland 3.1 Paddy Power (2.5 Skybet,
BoyleSports, Sportingbet, 3.33 Betfair) 0.25pt

Double: Both Teams Draw No Bet Poland to bt Greece and Russia to bt Czech
Republic pays: 2.2 Skybet, bet 365, Ladbrokes 0.5pt

Russia to bt Czech Republic Group A 2.58 Pinnacle (2.57 SBOBet, 2.52 188Bet,
2.5 bet 365) 0.5pt

Asian Handicap Betting

ASIAN HANDICAP:

A market that causes a great deal of confusion but often offers very good value. It got the name “Asian handicap” because it is the preferred form of betting in the far east. Profit margins are far lower than most other markets, often just a couple of percent. I will try to explain how they work as simply as I can. Don’t worry if you don’t understand it straight away, many people don’t, take your time and read over what I have written a couple of times. You can play around with it on Betfair too, just pick a game, click on Asian handicaps and click the “back” box. A bet slip will appear on the right hand side explaining what you win or lose from each outcome.

The simplest type of Asian handicap is exactly the same bet as draw no bet. Both teams will appear with a +0 next to them, the bet is void in the event of a draw.

Another type of Asian handicap is to back a team +1 or -1. You might back an outsider +1 or back a strong favourite -1. Backing a strong favourite -1 is basically backing them to win by more than one goal. If they win by exactly one goal then you lose nothing and your stake is returned as the one goal margin they have won by is cancelled out by the -1 handicap. If they win by two or more then your bet is a winner.

A slightly more complicated Asian handicap is backing a team to win +1.5 or -1.5. This should be thought of in exactly the same way as over/under 2.5 goals. If the team you are backing -1.5 wins by two goals then your bet is a winner, if they win by only one goal then your bet is a loser.

It is the same as backing a team -1 only you have no insurance if the team wins by one goal. Remember if you back a team -1 and they win by one, then you get your money back, but if you back them -1.5 and they win by one then the bet is a loser. The most complicated Asian handicap is when the previous two bets are combined and you are given the option of backing a team -1 & -1.5. Although it looks very complicated it is actually quite simple. All you have to do to understand it is split the bet in two. Half of your bet is for “team A” to win -1 and the other half of your stake is for “team A” to win -1.5. If we back team A at evens to win -1 & -1.5 for a £100 stake, then the following will happen:

Team A wins by 2 goals or more = win £100 (Both parts of the bet have won)

Team A wins by 1 goal = lose £50 (you get your money back for the first part of the bet but lose £50 on the second part)

Team A does not win = lose £100 (both parts of your bet have lost)

Asian handicaps are most useful if you want to back a short priced favourite to win by a big margin or for an outsider to only lose by a small margin or to draw. For example, if you back a team +1 then you have both the draw and them winning as positive results.

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This was written by a professional odds compiler.
More from him in the free soccer betting course over at www.Football-Bets.co.uk

Football Tip & Each Way Betting

This soccer betting advice actually comes from a service that
is predominantly a horse racing service.

Paul Ruffy who runs it has a good reputation in my book.
I have been receiving his tips for some time now and can confirm
he runs an honest service.

He specialises in exploiting each way betting.
This is one of the few mathematical chinks in the traditional bookmakers armoury.

He puts out the odd bonus sports bet like the below as well.

If at all interested in his service ..well the good news is he
offers a FREE TRIAL.
It is not very obvious on his site but click the link below scroll to page
base and hit the subscribe button.
You will then note the free trial option.

Click Here ==> Visit Paul’s Site

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Bonus Bets

Aston Villa v Arsenal 12.45
Villa are unbeaten at home but Arsenal have a very good record at Villa
Park. The visitors are without Fabregas but Villa have a small and
inexperienced squad and are missing 5 midfielders in total. The “kids” that
have stepped in for Villa have done well, especially against Man Utd, but
probably the brightest of these young stars, Albrighton, is out today along
with Hogg. And Utd were way under par that day. The result will most likely
mean a midfield threesome of Bannan, Clark and Ireland. It is essentially a
makeshift team that Villa are fielding, they’ve been struggling to score
all season and I feel the likes of Arshavin, Van Persie, Nasri and Chamakh
will out-play them today. Arsenal have had a bad week, but as usual their
troubles tend to get blown out of proportion, up until the 50th minute
against Spurs things were looking very good, and previous away wins at
Everton and Wolves were more in character. The Gunners have the best away
record in the league.
Arsenal 2% stake @ 5/4 Coral
Arsenal -1 (asian handicap) 1.5% stake @ 21/10 Bet365

That’s my strongest football advice of the weekend, but I also think Stoke
are too big at 11/4 against City, that Chelsea will win at Newcastle, and
Tottenham (If van der Vaart plays) are decent at 11/10 v Liverpool. Arsenal
can also be backed at 8/13 in the “draw no bet” market with Bluesquare.
That price again looks value given that they haven’t lost at Villa Park
since 1998.

Saturday Football Betting

2pts Barcelona to beat Real Madrid -1 on the Asian handicap, 21/20 VC or 41/40 Bet365 (Saturday 13th December 9pm ko)

The first “El Classico” of the season looks set to be the most one sided in a long time. Barcelona have the bookmakers running for cover and have been chalked up as short as 1/2, in an attempt to put people off backing them. They are the most in form team in Europe right now and are destroying everything in their path. A little over a month ago they beat Almeria 5-0 in the Nou camp, followed by a 4-1 win at Malaga and a 6-0 hammering of Vallodolid. Whilst impressive, these results were against inferior opposition and we had to wait for the run of fixtures against the big guns in La Liga to start, to see just how good Barca are. They answered this question in emphatic style with a 3-0 away win in Sevilla. This was followed up last week by a 4-0 hammering of Valencia, a team that had previously conceded just three times away from home, oh, and their leading scorer, Samuel Etoo, was suspended for this game too. Barcelona are the top scorers in Europe with 44 goals in 14 games, an average of 3.14 per game! They do not take their foot of the gas when they are a goal up, they keep going until the final whistle. They also have the best defensive record in La Liga, conceding just nine goals. Their twenty match unbeaten record in all competitions was ended by Shaktahr on Tuesday night, but it was a meaningless result with nearly the entire first team rested for this fixture.

Real Madrid have endured a torrid time of late. They were dumped out of the Copa Del Rey by an unheard of lower league side, then beaten home and away in the Champions league by Juventus, before scraping through to the knockout stages with a 1-0 win away at BATE Borisov. In the league they were beaten by Valladolid and Getafe and only scraped a 1-0 home win over bottom club Recreativo. Following last week’s home defeat to Sevilla, manager Bernd Schuster declared that it was “impossible” for Madrid to beat Barcelona tomorrow and that it would be “their season”. He might as well have said “sack me now”, as such defeatist rhetoric went down very badly with the supporters and the club. Schuster got his wish on Tuesday when his contract was terminated and he got his pay off. Unfortunately this was about the same time I was suggesting that Zenit might be worth a small interest if you wanted a bet on this week’s Champions league fixtures. The appointment of Ramos before this game obviously changed things somewhat. However, getting a result in a meaningless game against Zenit is one thing, getting something from the Nou camp is quite another. The removal of the unpopular Schuster will have given Madrid a lift but Ramos is not a magician. He will need weeks not days, to sort out Real’s defensive problems and although one or two reinforcements will arrive in January, Ramos will have to wait until the summer before the real rebuilding can take place. So the side he puts out against Barca will be the same one that has conceded 24 goals in La Liga already this season. He cannot change it, as there is nobody to bring in, such are Real Madrid’s injury problems. This week Ruben De La Red joined Diarra and Van Nistelrooy on the list of Madrid players ruled out for the rest of the season. Heinze, Pepe and Miguel Torres are also out of this fixture. They are joined by suspended duo Marcelo and Robben leaving Real literally down to the bare bones. Wesley Sneijder is also injured at the moment, but Real’s injury problems are so bad that he has been named in the squad anyway and will join Saviola on the bench as possibly the only two substitutes you will have heard of. The others will be players from the youth team. So Ramos has extremely limited options if he needs to make any changes. Crucially, left sided duo Marcelo and Robben being suspended has left a gaping hole in an already unbalanced side. With possibly the most dangerous right sided duo in the world about to fill that hole tomorrow night, in Messi and Alves, it couldn’t get much worse for Real. Reserve right back Salgado will have to fill in at left back and do his best to shackle Messi whilst Drenthe will play left midfield and try to stop Alves’s rampaging runs forward. Much criticised Metzelder will have to come in at centre back, whilst Sergio Ramos moves to right back. Between Metzelder, Salgado and the severely out of form Casillas in goal, I just cannot see how Real will prevent Barca from scoring, they are averaging over three goals per game remember. I know that this is a big derby game, and the cliche says that form is supposed to go out of the window, but I cannot see past a convincing Barcelona victory. They will be keen to open up a gap at the top and seek revenge for last season’s 4-1 defeat at the Bernabeau under Rijkaard. If Barcelona win by just one goal we will get our money back, but if they win by two or more, which I think is extremely likely, we will be collecting our winnings.

Minimum price to take – 4/5

The Oracle

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