ASIAN HANDICAP:

A market that causes a great deal of confusion but often offers very good value. It got the name “Asian handicap” because it is the preferred form of betting in the far east. Profit margins are far lower than most other markets, often just a couple of percent. I will try to explain how they work as simply as I can. Don’t worry if you don’t understand it straight away, many people don’t, take your time and read over what I have written a couple of times. You can play around with it on Betfair too, just pick a game, click on Asian handicaps and click the “back” box. A bet slip will appear on the right hand side explaining what you win or lose from each outcome.

The simplest type of Asian handicap is exactly the same bet as draw no bet. Both teams will appear with a +0 next to them, the bet is void in the event of a draw.

Another type of Asian handicap is to back a team +1 or -1. You might back an outsider +1 or back a strong favourite -1. Backing a strong favourite -1 is basically backing them to win by more than one goal. If they win by exactly one goal then you lose nothing and your stake is returned as the one goal margin they have won by is cancelled out by the -1 handicap. If they win by two or more then your bet is a winner.

A slightly more complicated Asian handicap is backing a team to win +1.5 or -1.5. This should be thought of in exactly the same way as over/under 2.5 goals. If the team you are backing -1.5 wins by two goals then your bet is a winner, if they win by only one goal then your bet is a loser.

It is the same as backing a team -1 only you have no insurance if the team wins by one goal. Remember if you back a team -1 and they win by one, then you get your money back, but if you back them -1.5 and they win by one then the bet is a loser. The most complicated Asian handicap is when the previous two bets are combined and you are given the option of backing a team -1 & -1.5. Although it looks very complicated it is actually quite simple. All you have to do to understand it is split the bet in two. Half of your bet is for “team A” to win -1 and the other half of your stake is for “team A” to win -1.5. If we back team A at evens to win -1 & -1.5 for a £100 stake, then the following will happen:

Team A wins by 2 goals or more = win £100 (Both parts of the bet have won)

Team A wins by 1 goal = lose £50 (you get your money back for the first part of the bet but lose £50 on the second part)

Team A does not win = lose £100 (both parts of your bet have lost)

Asian handicaps are most useful if you want to back a short priced favourite to win by a big margin or for an outsider to only lose by a small margin or to draw. For example, if you back a team +1 then you have both the draw and them winning as positive results.

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Bonus Bets

Aston Villa v Arsenal 12.45
Villa are unbeaten at home but Arsenal have a very good record at Villa
Park. The visitors are without Fabregas but Villa have a small and
inexperienced squad and are missing 5 midfielders in total. The “kids” that
have stepped in for Villa have done well, especially against Man Utd, but
probably the brightest of these young stars, Albrighton, is out today along
with Hogg. And Utd were way under par that day. The result will most likely
mean a midfield threesome of Bannan, Clark and Ireland. It is essentially a
makeshift team that Villa are fielding, they’ve been struggling to score
all season and I feel the likes of Arshavin, Van Persie, Nasri and Chamakh
will out-play them today. Arsenal have had a bad week, but as usual their
troubles tend to get blown out of proportion, up until the 50th minute
against Spurs things were looking very good, and previous away wins at
Everton and Wolves were more in character. The Gunners have the best away
record in the league.
Arsenal 2% stake @ 5/4 Coral
Arsenal -1 (asian handicap) 1.5% stake @ 21/10 Bet365

That’s my strongest football advice of the weekend, but I also think Stoke
are too big at 11/4 against City, that Chelsea will win at Newcastle, and
Tottenham (If van der Vaart plays) are decent at 11/10 v Liverpool. Arsenal
can also be backed at 8/13 in the “draw no bet” market with Bluesquare.
That price again looks value given that they haven’t lost at Villa Park
since 1998.

2pts Barcelona to beat Real Madrid -1 on the Asian handicap, 21/20 VC or 41/40 Bet365 (Saturday 13th December 9pm ko)

The first “El Classico” of the season looks set to be the most one sided in a long time. Barcelona have the bookmakers running for cover and have been chalked up as short as 1/2, in an attempt to put people off backing them. They are the most in form team in Europe right now and are destroying everything in their path. A little over a month ago they beat Almeria 5-0 in the Nou camp, followed by a 4-1 win at Malaga and a 6-0 hammering of Vallodolid. Whilst impressive, these results were against inferior opposition and we had to wait for the run of fixtures against the big guns in La Liga to start, to see just how good Barca are. They answered this question in emphatic style with a 3-0 away win in Sevilla. This was followed up last week by a 4-0 hammering of Valencia, a team that had previously conceded just three times away from home, oh, and their leading scorer, Samuel Etoo, was suspended for this game too. Barcelona are the top scorers in Europe with 44 goals in 14 games, an average of 3.14 per game! They do not take their foot of the gas when they are a goal up, they keep going until the final whistle. They also have the best defensive record in La Liga, conceding just nine goals. Their twenty match unbeaten record in all competitions was ended by Shaktahr on Tuesday night, but it was a meaningless result with nearly the entire first team rested for this fixture.

Real Madrid have endured a torrid time of late. They were dumped out of the Copa Del Rey by an unheard of lower league side, then beaten home and away in the Champions league by Juventus, before scraping through to the knockout stages with a 1-0 win away at BATE Borisov. In the league they were beaten by Valladolid and Getafe and only scraped a 1-0 home win over bottom club Recreativo. Following last week’s home defeat to Sevilla, manager Bernd Schuster declared that it was “impossible” for Madrid to beat Barcelona tomorrow and that it would be “their season”. He might as well have said “sack me now”, as such defeatist rhetoric went down very badly with the supporters and the club. Schuster got his wish on Tuesday when his contract was terminated and he got his pay off. Unfortunately this was about the same time I was suggesting that Zenit might be worth a small interest if you wanted a bet on this week’s Champions league fixtures. The appointment of Ramos before this game obviously changed things somewhat. However, getting a result in a meaningless game against Zenit is one thing, getting something from the Nou camp is quite another. The removal of the unpopular Schuster will have given Madrid a lift but Ramos is not a magician. He will need weeks not days, to sort out Real’s defensive problems and although one or two reinforcements will arrive in January, Ramos will have to wait until the summer before the real rebuilding can take place. So the side he puts out against Barca will be the same one that has conceded 24 goals in La Liga already this season. He cannot change it, as there is nobody to bring in, such are Real Madrid’s injury problems. This week Ruben De La Red joined Diarra and Van Nistelrooy on the list of Madrid players ruled out for the rest of the season. Heinze, Pepe and Miguel Torres are also out of this fixture. They are joined by suspended duo Marcelo and Robben leaving Real literally down to the bare bones. Wesley Sneijder is also injured at the moment, but Real’s injury problems are so bad that he has been named in the squad anyway and will join Saviola on the bench as possibly the only two substitutes you will have heard of. The others will be players from the youth team. So Ramos has extremely limited options if he needs to make any changes. Crucially, left sided duo Marcelo and Robben being suspended has left a gaping hole in an already unbalanced side. With possibly the most dangerous right sided duo in the world about to fill that hole tomorrow night, in Messi and Alves, it couldn’t get much worse for Real. Reserve right back Salgado will have to fill in at left back and do his best to shackle Messi whilst Drenthe will play left midfield and try to stop Alves’s rampaging runs forward. Much criticised Metzelder will have to come in at centre back, whilst Sergio Ramos moves to right back. Between Metzelder, Salgado and the severely out of form Casillas in goal, I just cannot see how Real will prevent Barca from scoring, they are averaging over three goals per game remember. I know that this is a big derby game, and the cliche says that form is supposed to go out of the window, but I cannot see past a convincing Barcelona victory. They will be keen to open up a gap at the top and seek revenge for last season’s 4-1 defeat at the Bernabeau under Rijkaard. If Barcelona win by just one goal we will get our money back, but if they win by two or more, which I think is extremely likely, we will be collecting our winnings.

Minimum price to take – 4/5

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