Apprentice Betting System Task

There is an interesting article over at PunterProfits describing how contestants

in the hit tv show the apprentice might fare in give a betting system task.

Which betting system creators will lord Sugar point the finger at saying “You’re Fired !”

The article is aimed at educating about the dangers of back fitting a horse racing system and is well worth a read if you ever wish to design a racing system yourself or are prone to buying them of system vendors.

Find the article at this link ==>  Betting System

Racing Tip for Catterick

No firm bets today but if you want a bit of interest consider …

CATTERICK 1.40

Bet On Today´s Football At Totesport.com
Apprentice Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m3f214y

5/2 Drum Dragon, 7/2 Lost Soldier Three, 4/1 Boundless Prospect, 8/1 Bajan Parkes, 10/1 Moggy, 16/1 Bigalo´s Star, 25/1 Another Decree, 25/1 Dream In Blue, 33/1 Aven Mac,  33/1 Boy Dancer, 33/1 Cecina Marina, Grethel,

SELECTION

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 + (  11/1 Skybet and sportingbet )
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

This is a Claimer over just short of 12f for Apprentice
riders. Catterick has 12 renewals of this race and there
are 53 similar races for all jockeys. You want at least 5
runs this season. I see BIGALO´S STAR as underraced
this year.  Horses absent over 7 weeks have struggled.
They were 1-51 in this race. In the 53 similar races all
horses absent 7 weeks or more were 1-118 since 1998
so DREAM IN BLUE and BOY DANCER have to go.

Horses from Maidens like AVEN MAC are poor. I do
not want CECINA MARINA a filly with a 0-22 career
record. She is an exposed mare and these types have a
poor 1-39 record something GRETHEL also fails. I’d
be against ANOTHER DECREE as a male horse thats
up in distance 3 furlongs. Horses that came up from 10f
races without a run within 2 weeks had a 3-150 record.
Thats poor and BOUNDLESS PROSPECT’s got that
against him and its asking a lot for a 10 year old to win
coming from 10f. He has only run once  since March
and thats not a lot for a 10 year old. I see him failing
this test. DRUM DRAGON is a 3yo filly coming from
a 3yo handicap and in all 53 similar races these types
were 0-17. That has to be a worry. I dont want to trust
BAJAN PARKES after being beaten 53 lengths only 7
days ago. If you look at horses that lost by 10 or more
lengths in the last fortnight you find a horrible record
and those like BAJAN PARKES that came from 14f or
shorter were 1-115. It was only non stayers at 2 miles
that got well beaten dropping in trip that overcame it
and with a 1-115 record BAJAN PARKES doesnt look
like a horse I could bet. Its quite interesting that it only a quarter of a length stops LOST SOLDIER THREE
from failing the same statistic. He ran in the same race
as BAJAN PARKES and despite not beaten 10 + lengths
he was beaten 9.75 lengths and there has to be a doubt
about whether he did enough and he does look quite a
regressive 8 year old.

SELECTION

I quite like MOGGY the 3 year old filly. There has been
2 recent 3yo fillies winning this race. I would have been
happier with a very recent run but MOGGY is as good as
anything on her profile. She will probably try and make
the runningand steal the race from the front. There is a
stamina doubt here so she may be vulnerable later on. I
see her as a Win bet at 12/1 and lay her back in running
about 3/1 as she will probably have Lost Soldier Three
and Drum Dragon trying to mow her down. I would much
rather bet him big and lay her in running than any other
way and I dont think its impossible she can win this. In
all similar races 3yo fillies coming from 10f sellers had
a 2-7 record and that included the 2006 winner of this.

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 +
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

Guy Ward ( The Mathematician )

To visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Horse Betting

I have gone with IMPERIAL SWORD at Ayr.
To be honest if I had complete faith in the Trainer and could rely on the fact
he is doing his best I might have upgraded him as a bet. Its a very hard yard to read though.
IMPERIAL SWORD was 2nd in this race last year and should have won.
Ran well last time. He will probably be in last place 3 furlongs out and will come late.
Happy enough with the 8/1 but I know we are taking a risk with the stable.

AYR 5.50

CHAMPAGNE G H MUMM GRAND CRU APPRENTICE
HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) 6f

4/1 Hitches Dubai, 9/2 Botham, 9/2 Downhill Skier,
11/2 Feeling Fresh, 7/1 Imperial Sword, 10/1 Thunder Bay,
12/1 Almost Married, 12/1 Liberty Trail, 25/1 Coconut Moon, 33/1 Forrest Star.

* 317 Similar low grade handicaps at this time of year
* Only seven of the 317 winners came from Maidens
* Those that came from 5f maidens were 0-42
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that
* Horses aged 4 from maidens were 0-28
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that as well so he is avoided
* ALMOST MARRIED is a negative
* He won last years race but not with just 1 run and 81 days off
* FEELING FRESH has a poor profile in my view
* Horses from 8f or more with 3 or less runs that year are 2-78
* None did it with 13 or more runs
* FEELING FRESH fails that and looks opposable
* THUNDER BAY has a poor profile
* FORREST STAR – COCONUT MOON are out of form mares
* LIBERTY TRAIL has an unsafe profile
* All the above horses are negatives
* DOWNHILL SKIER is drawn 1 and I dont like that
* The last 12 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* 11 of the 12 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* He beat IMPERIAL SWORD last time out
* IMPERIAL SWORD was second in this race last year
* He was also unlucky in running
* BOTHAM is well drawn and has no obvious flaws
* I prefer IMPERIAL SWORD and Botham

SELECTION

IMPERIAL SWORD

Blog Comment was 8/1 or more earlier
Now 7/1 Betfred, Corals , Tote

Guy Ward

The Mathematician

to visit guys site click here => free horse racing tips