My Hennessy conclusion is that the bet is both a win bet on ALBERTAS RUN and a saver on BIG BUCKS but like many I’m worried about the ground for ALBERTAS RUN. Midweek I was confident he would win this race but many little things have conspired against him and my confidence has drained a little away from him. I have backed him at a shorter price than he is now and the potential for me to have the race wrong now is a strong possibility.

I hope he wins but I cant pretend I am as bullish as I was 48 hours ago.

This is certainly not Account Bet strength but I hope you enjoy the analysis and find it an aid if trying to unravel the Hennessey yourself.
**********************************************

NEWBURY 2:40

HENNESSY GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 3 (4yo+) 3m2f110y

Racing Post Forecast Prices
6/1 Air Force One, Big Buck´s, 15/2 Island Flyer, 8/1 Albertas Run, 11/1 Oedipe, 14/1 Slim Pickings, 16/1 Dear Villez, High Chimes, Royal County Star, 20/1 Snoopy Loopy, Verasi, 25/1 Knowhere, 50/1 Always Waining, Madison Du Berlais, Monkerhostin, My Will.


SELECTION- ALBERTAS RUN  ( best current price 9/1 PaddyPower, CanBet, pagebet )

SAVER – BIG BUCKS  ( best current price 5/1 CanBet )

This race strongly favours lightly raced, progressive second-season chasers. If you look at the last 15 years of the Hennessy Gold Cup it has been dominated by horses that had between 6 and 20 races before. We haven’t had a winner that had under 5 starts. On the other end of the scale Horses that had More than 20 Career races had a disastrous 0-59 record in this race. All 59 got beaten and not that Many were Placed. You don’t want a seasoned handicapper who has limited potential and whose form is clearly an open book and who has had ample time to be accurately assessed by the Handicapper. These types end up giving weight to horses that have far more scope and Improvement and horses that are very well handicapped. The following tables show how many runs the recent past winners have had and how many handicap runs they have had as well.

* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy

10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16

* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate the Hennessy

0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8

* Finishing 1st-2nd or 3rd last time is important

Recent form seems important. You must have been placed 1st 2nd or 3rd last time out. I have looked at every winner of this going back to 1987 and every one of those winners managed a 1-2-3 Placing last time out. Such is the test of this Class race that we should be ignoring anything that did not have the ability to place last time assuming they do not have the Class to win a Hennessy or the jumping prowess. Since 1987 there have been well over 100 Horses that failed to finish placed or better on their latest start. None of these 100 + runners won.

I don’t want VERASI. I do like the horse. I had him as a saver in last years Sun Alliance at 25/1 so its nothing personal. You can argue that he is over exposed for a race like this but he has only had 6 chase starts so that’s harsh. He fails the statistic that demands a 1-2-3 finish last time out but the one factor I really do not forgive him for is his flat form. This is a Flat bred horse that started his career on the flat. You can go back decades and you wont find any Hennessy winner starting his career on the flat in England.

ROYAL COUNTY STAR looks all wrong. We haven’t had a winner warm up over hurdles. The run he had wasn’t good enough anyway. He did not achieve enough last time. His handicap mark looks stiff and he doesn’t have half the improvement of most of these.

I don’t want KNOWWHERE with top weight. That’s a tall order. The two recent Top weight winners Denman and Trablogan were both Sun Alliance winners and KNOWWHERE looks exposed. He was well beaten in last years race with 10lbs less weight. He has a career high mark and having ran in 12 handicap chase’s is not the profile of a Hennessy winner.

SNOOPY LOOPY is also exposed and has had far more handicap runs than ideal. He was a huge price for this race before he won last week in Kauto Star’s race at 33/1. There must be a huge doubt he can reproduce his best just 7 days later. I have to take him on.

SLIM PICKINGS isn’t for me. I don’t like the fact he comes from a 2 mile race which is not a good thing or a successful thing in this race. I think he looks exposed. Is a horse that has lost his last 14 races likely to win a Hennessy. I don’t think so.

HIGH CHIMES is a seasonal debutant. Several recent winners were making their debuts that season but they were younger. HIGH CHIMES is a 9 year old. If you look at the last 17 Hennessy’s and look at seasonal debutants aged 8 or more you find a 0-42 record. That’s a worry for him. So to is his handicap mark as he won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last March off 127 and has to run from 141 today. There hasn’t been a similar winner of the Hennessy in recent memory so I would not see HIGH CHIMES as my selection in this years race.

DEAR VILLEZ can’t be discounted but he isn’t for me. He won well last time in Ireland and passes most trends in this race. He is clearly Paul Nicholls’s second string. I wonder if he has the class. After all go back to last years Cheltenham festival. DEAR VILLEZ ran and fell in the Jewson Novice Handicap. Compare that with ALBERTAS RUN and AIR FORCE ONE and others that were running in the Grade 1 Sun Alliance Chase and only have to concede a couple of lbs to him. I just don’t see him as good enough.

I don’t want to go with OEDIPE. He is a 6yo seasonal debutant. I haven’t got a big problem with that at all as State of Play (2006) was one. However if you look at the seasonal debutants that have won this race – they had all ran in better class than he has. They were all more experienced. They all ran far better than he did last time and none of them stepped up as far in trip. OEDIPE is a notorious poor work horse so he is has hardly been galloping the house down. He is also a French Bred and there hasn’t been many of those win the race. I think he is out of his depth and I worry his trainer says he is a “hard horse to get fit”.

ISLAND FLYER

One the face of it this horse has a strong profile and comes from a decent trial race and its easy to understand why there has been lots of ante post money for him this week. That said the value has probably gone now. The one trends worry I have with him is his class. ISLAND FLYER is rated 132 and that would make him the lowest rated winner in at least 20 years. Every winner since the 1980′s was rated 135 or more and its just in the back of my mind that off bottom weight in the last two furlongs he could just be fighting to get home in this class on soft ground and his low rating worries me. After all 9 months ago as he was winning a cheap novice chase others were running and winning Sun Alliances and his flaw could be whether he has the class to win.

AIR FORCE ONE

This horse must have a great chance. Statistically he is not unlike One Man who won this in 1994 and both came from the Sun Alliance and AIR FORCE ONE achieved more in that race and had more experience. Both were 6 year olds with 1 handicap run and one run that season. One Man (1994) won with 10st though and AIR FORCE ONE has a much bigger weight to carry. Recent Hennessy’s have shown high weights are fine in this race and AIR FORCE ONE has a strong overall profile. There are two issues to consider. One may be the general theory that he may be best on right handed tracks. The other is whether he wants soft ground. In terms of the Left Handed Track I don’t think there is enough evidence to suggest that. He has ran 5 times on left handed tracks. Even if you ignore his win at Fontwell when odds on in a Figure 8 track you cant draw any conclusions. His other races were 2-5-5-6 on left handed tracks. One of the times he was 50/1. Another was his chasing debut pitched into a Grade 2 chase. He was well beaten in the Sun Alliance at Cheltenham but his 2nd was also there in the Spa Hurdle at the festival and there is nothing wrong with that. The track wouldn’t be a major concern for me as the evidence is not compelling. In terms of the ground you would worry if it was soft. His connections have given excuses before for defeats blaming soft and dead ground. There has to be a slight stamina doubt on the ground as well so he isn’t bomb proof. I also don’t like the fact he has run on the Flat before albeit in Germany as very few Hennessy winners started racing on the flat. I see him and BIG BUCKS as the main contenders for the “saver” but much as I greatly respect his chance I prefer others marginally.

BIG BUCKS

Initially I felt that the favourite was worth opposing as a 5 year old but I would not be too dogmatic about that now. I have had a big rethink about 5 year olds as they have won similar other races at this time of year. BIG BUCKS is a 5 year old. The Hennessy was first run in 1957 and the 51 renewals of the race have never thrown up a 5 year old winner. That must be considered a problem for BIG BUCKS but not many have tried – just 4 in the last two decades and hardly any of the 5 year olds that have run have been fancied and they have had a 3rd with Eudipe in 1997. I couldn’t make him a negative on the back of a statistic that’s admittedly worrying but more importantly not proven. I think trip and ground demand he is a saver

SELECTION

ALBERTAS RUN

I really fancy this horse. He is trying to be the 3rd Sun Alliance Chase winner to win this race in the last 4 seasons after Denman and Trablogan did the double. On his profile he is Similar to Kings Road the 2000 winner in that they both ran in the Cheltenham Bumper early in their career and then the Sun Alliance. He is an even closer type to 2005 winner Trablogan who was also owned by Trevor Hemmings as ALBERTAS RUN is. Trablogan (2005) also ran in the Champion Bumper and won the Sun Alliance as well and ALBERTAS RUN attempts to do the same. He is the right age and a second season chaser. Statistically the only trend he fails was that he wasn’t 1-2-3 last time out. He was 4th of 4 on his seasonal debut but I can forgive him that. He probably was not trained for that race. The trip was too short and he met a top class horse. He was clearly unfit and that was the same Carlisle chase that his trainer ran Exotic Dancer a couple of years ago and he flopped that running a lifeless race before winning the Paddy Power Gold cup next time out. ALBERTAS run holds two wins over Air Force One and has a touch of class as a Sun Alliance Chase winner. His owner will want to win this race again and I think ALBERTAS RUN is good value to win the race. His chance will come down to the ground. If its not too soft he will win for me and if it is it lets in Big Bucks the saver.

Regards

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

**********************************************