Advised Bets - Opera Mundi (2.00 Cheltenham) – win  ( 10/3 at Betfred )
Maljimar 14/1 Tote / Barbers Shop 7/1 Tote (2.35 Cheltenham) – 2 x half stakes win bets

Firstly some 15 year statistics for the 2.00 at
Cheltenham.

2.00 Cheltenham – The Servo Computer Services Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 3½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Third and fourth favourites have provided 7 winners from 27 qualifiers and backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £22.50 (ROI +83.3%).

Position LTO: 10 of the 15 winners finished in the first three last time out.
Age: 5, 6 and 7 year olds have produced 7 winners from 32 qualifiers (SR 21.9%) showing a profit of £16.62 (ROI +51.9%).

Class LTO: 10 of the 15 winners raced in the same class last time out. Backing all 39 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.75 (ROI +50.5%).

Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £6.87 (ROI +57.3%).

Sex of horse: Fillies and mares have won 2 races from just 5 qualifiers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Second favourites have a dreadful record wins 0 wins from 15 runners.

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced only 2 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -56.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 20 qualifiers showing a loss of £4.63 (ROI -23.2%).

LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have recorded 4 wins from 25 qualifiers showing a small profit of £2.12 (ROI +8.5%).

Age: 8 year olds have produced 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 10 year olds have produced 2 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 11 year olds plus have won 2 from 11 (SR 18.2%).

Trends analysis: younger horses (5 to 7yos) have an excellent record winning 47% of the races from just 24% of the runners, and all such runners require very close scrutiny. Recent form seems fairly important with 10 of the 15 winners having finished in the first three on their last run. Third and fourth favourites have a good record, as do horses racing in the same class. In terms of price, horses priced in double figures not surprisingly struggle. The Pipe stable have done well in the past, but it should be noted that both David Pipe’s runners have been pulled up in the past two seasons.

Conclusion – Opera Mundi loves soft / heaby ground with 4 wins and a second from 5 runs on such ground. He is the preferred age bracket although his last run saw him fail to finish. Halcon Genelardais and Flintoff are other I quite like in this heat, but I’m going for Opera Mundi.

2.35 Cheltenham – this race tends to favour the front end of the betting. Barbers Shop is the most interesting for me. Henderson has recently had a poor record in chases at Cheltenham – losing run stretches back to an incredible 41 losers. However, this is a trainer who has previously had a great record in chases at this track and he will surely break the hoodoo soon. The stable have been cracking form and Barbers Shop should go very close. I also like Maljimar who has a good record fresh and well enough on easy ground. I am going split stake on the pair. At big odds Stan is interesting if he can get home in the ground.

3.10 Cheltenham – Sullumo is my pick is an trappy contest with dangers including Valerius.

3.45 Cheltenham – Qanta De Thaix has been backed off the boards having been in double figures on on Betfair last night. Any value has gone, but with the Pipe stable winning this four times in a row earlier in the decade, this is clearly a race they like. At a price I like Jocheski – was 33/1 at Ladbrokes early but 25s around now and bigger on Betfair. His 2nd at Hereford in May is solid form with the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th going on to win at least once since (admittedly the 3rd that day has won on the flat since and not over hurdles). Very close to an account bet but there are too mnay unexposed hurdlers in this for me to go in big.

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This Message was provided by Dave Renham of Racing Trends