Cheltenham Racing Advice
Saturday, January 29th, 2011 at
11:39 am
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A small snippet from todays message from the excellent www.RacingTrends.co.uk
3.35 Cheltenham – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m
POSITIVE TRENDS
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Market position: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top four in the betting.
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LTO course: 6 of the last 10 winners raced at either Cheltenham or Haydock last time out.
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Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
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Beaten favourites: 13 beaten favourites have contested this race and 6 have won. Backing all runners would have produced a huge profit of £39.73 (ROI +305.6%).
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Course form: 6 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham.
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Sex: Mares / fillies have had just 2 runners but both won!
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Career wins: Horses with 6 or more career wins have provided 6 of the winners.
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NEGATIVE TRENDS
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Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 3 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 and backing all selections would have produced a loss of £4.90 (ROI -44.5%).
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Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worst LTO have provided just 2 winners from 32 for a loss of £15.00 (ROI -46.9%).
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Headgear: Horses wearing headgear have managed just 1 win from 20.
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Price: All 28 horses priced 20/1 or bigger have been beaten. Only two of them have been placed (both 3rd).
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GENERAL STATS
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Trainers: Two wins apiece for Alan King and Howard Johnson.
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Age: 5 year olds have provided 3 wins from 11 qualifiers (SR 27.3%); 6 year olds have provided 1 win from 18 qualifiers (SR 5.6%); 7 year olds have provided 1 win from 17 qualifiers (SR 5.9%); 8 year olds have provided 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 9 year olds have provided 4 wins from 14 qualifiers (SR 28.6%); 10 year olds or older have provided 0 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 0%).
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Trends analysis: favourites have struggled in recent years with just 1 win in the last 6 seasons. However, in general is a decent guide with 8 of the last 10 winners coming from the top four of the betting. Horses that raced at Cheltenham or Haydock last time out have done well as have beaten favourites. It also pays to look for a decent run LTO and a horse that has numerous career wins to his/her name. Female runners are rare but the 2 runners have both won. In terms of age, horses aged 10 or older have struggled (only 1 placed effort from 15 runners).