Each Way Betting Discussion

Each Way Betting Advice

The following discussion from this morning regarding betting each way was lifted from the full member area at www.PunterProfits.com

Worth a read to any one who has ever bet a horse each way.

PunterProfits as a site.. well worth closer investigation if you are a thinking
punter.

There are many highly profitable tipping threads in the private forums there
whose results would blow any £2k a year glossy slick marketed tipster
away.


Not sure where to post this but here goes. I thought it could be useful for
some discussions/articles on general betting techniques and practices. I think
that there are some techniques that we can all learn from each other that will
improve our returns.

I would be interested to hear people’s thoughts on betting each way. I personally
rarely bet each way, with the exceptions of 8 or 16 horse races or if the market
has a particular shape eg odds on fav with 2 dangers and then mostly longer
odds. I notice a lot of threads where selections are advised each way so am
interested to understand what the stats are on this or whether it is just a
matter of personal preferences. I do think that there are definite situations
where value can be obtained each way (indeed there is a thread for 16 runner
handicaps) so hope this might be a useful topic for discussion.

Carl


I ONLY back in 16+ handicaps and always each way as its mainly the place money
I want. I have constantly made money doing this and run a small service to 10
other people and have done so for the last five years.

REASON is that in my opinion big handicaps are the only races that offer value
as bookmakers struggle to make ther books up early in these races. My problem
is that nearly all the book makers will not take my bets anymore, or just offer
me crappy sp – Betfair offers poor value early on as there is never enough money
to get a decent bet on, thats the reason I went down the tipster route.

I do not back any other method or follow anyone else on the site. Yesterday
I had 10 bets – NO winners, I few seconds unfortunatly but 5 did place @ 25/1
16/1 16/1 20/1 25/1 but still made a nice profit at just £10EW.

The method I use is Value, value value + a little bit of form smile.gif

To me its the only route to go, as following the short end of the market will
lead you to busto smile.gif

GL Padman


Hi Carl

Sounds like you are starting from the mathematical angle

of seeking race frames that offer each way advantage.

eg classic case of 8 runner race with a very short price favourite.

16 runner handicaps as per Padman again is in that realm.

It can throw up potential as well for the odd each way double.

More so a case of not taking the starting point of

I am going to find a few random horses to each way double every day,

instead .. the markets are throwing up this opportunity today

with two good each framed races.

eg say for arguments sake you have two horses with a

calculated zero positive or negative edge on the win side

but 10% value on the place side.

The double factors up that value to about 21%

It is another style of selective punt that the bookies do not like very much
smile.gif

A totally different angle on each way betting is from a bank management perspective.

eg If you ask the rough question of “I have fixed capital of £1000..

How best to I manage my betting of this method for optimal growth.”

Well sometimes an each way approach can be advantageous.

Likes of Kelly formulae will indicate % bank to use will vary with both ROI
and strike rate.

With each way betting there is potential to increase strike rate / reduce losing
run length

and draw downs etc.

That can permit additional aggression in terms of % bank which can in turn lead
to faster growth rate.

However not something to go into blindly.

More so done after research of a particular approach or method indicates is
favourable to do so.

In the back of my head I recall some research ( possibly by Dave ) indicating
each way

was less profitable than on the nose assuming random horse selections.

eg picture two betting shop mug punters who over the year each bet the same
randomly selected 500

horses at 10/1 over the course of a year.

The punter who bets each will have much more pleasurable experiences when landing

place returns. The win only punter may endure losing runs with much fewer pleasurable
days.

However add up at year end what they have won or lost and the win only punter
will have

lost less than his each way betting mate.

So for average betting shop mug punters who often focus “on the day”
rather than long term

each way can be a psychological trap set by the bookmaker.

But it is also an exploitable trap by the shrewd who can identify the correct
frame of race

where the maths and numbers move from bookmaker to punter.

Cheers

Mick

Cheltenham Racing Advice

A small snippet from todays message from the excellent www.RacingTrends.co.uk

3.35 Cheltenham – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market position: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top four in the betting.
LTO course: 6 of the last 10 winners raced at either Cheltenham or Haydock last time out.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
Beaten favourites: 13 beaten favourites have contested this race and 6 have won. Backing all runners would have produced a huge profit of £39.73 (ROI +305.6%).
Course form: 6 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham.
Sex: Mares / fillies have had just 2 runners but both won!
Career wins: Horses with 6 or more career wins have provided 6 of the winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 3 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 and backing all selections would have produced a loss of £4.90 (ROI -44.5%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worst LTO have provided just 2 winners from 32 for a loss of £15.00 (ROI -46.9%).
Headgear: Horses wearing headgear have managed just 1 win from 20.
Price: All 28 horses priced 20/1 or bigger have been beaten. Only two of them have been placed (both 3rd).

GENERAL STATS

Trainers: Two wins apiece for Alan King and Howard Johnson.
Age: 5 year olds have provided 3 wins from 11 qualifiers (SR 27.3%); 6 year olds have provided 1 win from 18 qualifiers (SR 5.6%); 7 year olds have provided 1 win from 17 qualifiers (SR 5.9%); 8 year olds have provided 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 9 year olds have provided 4 wins from 14 qualifiers (SR 28.6%); 10 year olds or older have provided 0 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: favourites have struggled in recent years with just 1 win in the last 6 seasons. However, in general is a decent guide with 8 of the last 10 winners coming from the top four of the betting. Horses that raced at Cheltenham or Haydock last time out have done well as have beaten favourites. It also pays to look for a decent run LTO and a horse that has numerous career wins to his/her name. Female runners are rare but the 2 runners have both won. In terms of age, horses aged 10 or older have struggled (only 1 placed effort from 15 runners).

Football Betting Advice

Football Betting Advice

A couple of bets today from Phil over at the Football Bets website.

Phil spent many years working for an independant bookmaker.
He now advises clients on what to bet on and has a very good long term record.

See Football Results

Anyhow enough waffle.

See below which football bets he is advising today.

————————————————————-

Morning Guys,

We had a nice winner last night as our double came in at a decent 21/10

Today we hope to continue winning ways with a couple of solid bets in the shape of another Double and a single

1pt Schalke v Hamburg (2:30pm)
OVER 2.5 Goals at 19/20 Bet365 10/11 Coral 8/9

1pt Win Double
Bayern Munich TO BEAT Wolfsburg (2:30pm)
Aberdeen TO BEAT St Mirren (3:00pm)
This Double pays just shy of 11/5 at Betfred and 21/10 at Coral William Hill  Tote

Speak Soon – All The Best , Phil ( BettingLayingClub)

Scottish Football Betting Advice

Scottish Football Betting Advice

The following is a tip from Tammboy over at the Football Bets site.

Tammboy is an ex bookmaker odds compiler who has now turned his hand to winning cash

for his clients.

So far this season his strike rate is over 50% and perhpas even more impressive is a return on investment in the 40% region !!

This is just one of several bets he has today.

SPL – Kilmarnock WIN @ Evs (vs. St Mirren) – 3 Star Bet ( Bet365, Ladbrokes, PaddyPower )

Analysis

Kilmarnock vs. St Mirren

Kilmarnock are in good form having won their last 4 games on the trot. They’ve been strong at home managing to beat Celtic too. St Mirren haven’t been quite as impressive having not won any in their last 6, their away form in woeful too so this rates as a good bet at Evens for Kilmarnock to win.

To finfd out more about him click here ==> Football Betting Advice