STRATFORD 3.00

Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+)  2m6f110y

4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.

* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races

Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.

* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically

He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race

Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet

Guy Ward

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