50/1 Winner At Newmarket?

50/1 Winner At Newmarket?

A specualtive  long shot each way suggestion for newmarket today from The Mathematician. To visit his own site click here ==> Horse Betting

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NEWMARKET 1.50

Victor Chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, 10/1 Main Aim
12/1 Cat Junior, 12/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing
20/1 Duff, 20/1 Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George 25/1 Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 20 renewals since 1990
* 18 of the 20 winners had between 9 and 14 career runs
* Horses with 13 or more starts struggled
* The only ones that won had Grade 1 form before
* Male 3 year olds are just 1-37 with 13 or more runs
* No 3 year old has won this down in distance

SHORTLIST

* DELEGATOR has 1 run this season
* A Few past winners had 2 runs but none had 1
* Thats the biggest problem he faces
* BLUE ANGEL has a surprisingly good profile
* She is very similar to the 2007 winner
* She is  close to 2 other winners
* In a race of shocks she could be interesting
* 3 Year Old fillies with 7-12 career starts
* Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
* At least 6 runs this season
* These horses had a 4-6 record in this race
* The last 2 that won (2007 and 2000) were 20/1
* BLUE ANGEL is a possibly shock  winner.

It looks a ridiculous shout to go with BLUE ANGLE who
is 50/1 and more on Betfair and multiple bookmakers but the last 10 renewals have
seen horses win a 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 and 16/1 and they
were impossible to find as well so she may be able to nick
a place. I’m not keen on any of the alternatives so with a
risk of making myself look stupid I will go with her.

Definately more chance of losing with this bet than winning with it but the name of the game is long term edge and at 50/1 I sniff some value.
SELECTION

BLUE ANGEL 50/1 + Each  Way Bet365BetfredLadbrokesStan James

Newmarket Horse Racing Tip

Newmarket Horse Racing Tip

This comes from Guy Ward over at the Mathematician Site.
To visit Guys site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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Saturday October 2nd

1 Daily Reccomendation

Newmarket 3.00

RAINFALL 7/1

Each Way

8/1 Bet365Tote
15/2 SkyVC
7/1 Betfred -Blue SquareBoyleSports -Corals -PaddyPower

NEWMARKET 3.00

Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes
(Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1)(3yo+) 1m

4/1 Music Show, 4/1 Sahpresa, 11/2 Seta, 11/2 Strawberrydaiquiri 6/1 Spacious,
7/1 Rainfall, 14/1 Aviate, 33/1 Alsace Lorraine 33/1 Hen Night, 33/1 Sent From Heaven, 40/1 Lahaleeb.

The Sun Chariot Stakes has 10 past renewals as a Group 2
or Group 1 race. In these races horses beaten more than 4
lengths last time out were 0-30 in this race.
All winners of this race were either 3 or 4 year olds.
SAHPRESA has that against her. If you look at horses with only 1-2-3 runs this season you found 2 winners.
None were aged 4 or more and None had 9 or more career starts and SAHPRESA fails both those angles.
Horses like SPACIOUS with 13 or more starts struggled.
Only 1 past winner had that many runs and that was only a 3 year old.
STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI has been absent a while and I can’t match her.
AVIATE drops from a 10f race and needed to have won last time to have been like any past winner.
I would shortlist 3 horses in this. It’s hard to ignore MUSIC SHOW or SETA and both look like big runners.
That said 3 year olds like MUSIC SHOW and SETA coming from an 8f race only had a 1-25 record
and that winner was less exposed than MUSIC SHOW and was lighter raced than both.
I prefer RAINFALL from these 3.

* Horses aged 3
* Coming from a 7f race
* Form in Group 1 of Group 2 races
* 4 or more runs that season
* There were 3 horses with that profile in this race
* All 3 horses won in 2000 2006 and 2007
* RAINFALL has that profile
* Admittedly none 7 runs that season they all had 4-5-6 runs
* None tried though with 7 runs though and I’m overlooking that
* RAINFALL each way is my bet

I think she has been underestimate in a nicely frame race
and horses with very similar profiles were W W W in the
race so I see her as a very interesting runner.
She has one or two lengths to find with a couple of these but
that’s not impossible especially on this ground and I think
she has a serious chance of beating these from the best age group.

Racing Tip For Newmarket

Some thoughts on Newmarket 2.05 today from Guy over at Mathematician Betting

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I have previewed ten races today for full members.

For full service joining info See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

One of them I will pop up on the free blog.

NEWMARKET 2.05

Bbag-sales.de Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 1m2f

2/1 Psychic Ability, 11/2 Rumble Of Thunder, 13/2 Abergavenny 13/2 Spanish Duke,  Kindest, 10/1 Putra One, 12/1 Geneva Geyser 14/1 Bollin Dolly,16/1 Ramona Chase 40/1 All Annalena.

This is a complicated 10f Handicap. There are only 34 of these Class 2 handicaps in August. They’ve all gone to horses younger than BOLLIN DOLLY. My problem with PSYCHIC ABILITY  is having 1 run this year something no horse like him managed to do. I think the following statistic puts this in its right context.

* August has had 824 Handicaps at Every Distance
* Thats 824 races at any Distance in Class 2 and Class 3
* I looked at 3 year olds with 1 run this season
* There was a 3-67 record in these 824 races
* 1 of these came from a Group Class race so ignore that
* Those that had No Group class form were 2-52
* None of them won last time out (0-8)
* None of then won at shorter than 12f (0-42)
* Those with 8st 12lbs or more were 0-36
* Those with Under 5 career starts were 0-29
* That included 7 beaten favourites
* PSYCHIC ABILITY fails all these angles

I think the above statistics show it should be wise to try and get an alternative to PSYCHIC ABILITY who has after all got some Cheekpieces after just 3 runs. RUMBLE OF THUNDER is 4 and  has over 12 career starts and no 4 year old that esposed managed  to win with under 4 runs that season. I think he would have been Far better with another run. ALL ANNALENA also fails that as well. Horses aged 4 with 1-2-3 races this season need to be very  lightly raced and to have had form in Class 2 or higher. All those
that won also finished 1-2-3 last time out and failing those angles  is PUTRA ONE who may lack the backclass to win.

The 34 races show fillies having a 1-34 record and KINDEST is  not going to find this easy when you consider it’s a Handicap in Class 2 and she has never been out of a Class 4 race yet. She has benefitted from the rain but this is a step up in class for her. To  win a Class 2 Handicap you want recent form. The horses beaten  over 10 lengths last time were just 1-109 which puts me against RAMONA CHASE who was hammered last time. Horses aged 3 coming from 3yo handicaps have won these races.  However it is interesting None of them came from 12f races. None of them had an absence of more than a month and none had under 4 runs
that year. SPANISH DUKE has all of those factors against him.

* August has seen 286 Class 2 Handicaps at every distance
* Horses from 3yo handicaps when absent over a month are 4-79
* Those with 7 or more runs had a 0-47 record
* SPANISH DUKE has 9 runs and absent 63 days
* I think he is too exposed for a 3yo
* Especially facing a very unpleasant absence.

GENEVA GEYSER is 4 and has 4 runs this season and I see him  having too much weight for a 4yo with just 4 runs this year and  10st and he fails to make the shortlist.

SELECTION

ABERGAVENNY comes from a 3yo handicap but he has the
recent run and all the right backclass and is lightly raced and  thats a good profile and I dont see a better option. There is a question mark about the ground but there is no obvious reason why he should not appreciate it. I like ABERGAVENNY.

6/1 available widely including Betfred, Bet365, Ladbrokes

7/1 Betfair

check currest best odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-07/newmarket/14-05/betting/

Guy

Stewards Cup At Goodwood

A look at the Stewards Cup at Goodwood from Guy over at mathematician -betting.

To visit Guys site click here  ===> UK  Horse Racing Tips

G O O D W O O D

It is not so Glorious today as the meeting shows its teeth and the full force of its bite today with a Savaging card.
I have no choice but to try and do the Stewards Cup today as that’s high on everybodys list of races to
Bet in but I wont be spending a great deal of time of this card today as its pretty ferocious.

The 2.30pm is Listed race for 3 year olds over a Mile and it’s got a long history.
I thought it was intersting horses coming from 3yo handicaps were 0-24.
FREEFORADAY looks one to avoid doing that. TREADWELL comes
from an all aged  handicaps and the 2 winners doing that were less exposed
and had a more recent run. LONG LASHES is a debutant and there were
2 debutants but they were Males with 2 runs and she is a female with 4 runs.
FIELD OF DREAMS has a chance and I’d see both these as a little unsafe
but possible winners. I respect CRITICAL MOMENTS who should run well.
Unclear as yet whether yesterdays handicap winner SEA LORD will run again
and if he does he has to be respected with yesterdays run sure to either improve his chance of kill it.
The one that interested  me most was DESERT MYTH as many winners dropped down
from 10f Conditions races and they were all very lightly raced  and a stable
with a good record in this I like DESERT MYTH

GOODWOOD 3.40

Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

8/1 Genki, 9/1 Enact, 9/1 Palace Moon, 10/1 Jonny Mudball
12/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, Noverre To Go, 14/1 Striking Spirit 16/1 Johannes,
16/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 16/1 Parisian Pyramid 16/1 Secret Asset,
20/1 Castles In The Air, 25/1 Hitchens,  25/1 Jimmy Styles, 25/1 Knot In Wood,
33/1 Evens And Odds 33/1 Ingleby Lady, 33/1 Prohibit, 33/1 Run For The Hills 33/1
Sir Gerry, 40/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 40/1 Prime Exhibit 40/1 Singeur, 50/1 Advanced,
Ancien Regime, 50/1 Edge Closer 50/1 Sonny Red, 66/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Stewards Cup in a Class 2 handicap over 6f
* There has been 19 renewals since 1991
* Exposed horses won 5 of the 19 renewals
* Those with under 6 runs that year were 1-117
* Those aged 4 were 1-59 and he had Group 3 class form
* Those exposed with form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 were 0-71
* Those exposed absent over a month were 0-59
* Those exposed from a 5f race were just 1-125
* Those exposed with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-46
* Horses from 5f struggle but only 1 runner does that today
* Horses aged 6 or more have a  2-182 record in this race
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 0-92
* Those with under 8 runs that season were 0-125
* Those that came from 6f or shorter were 0-162
* Horses aged 3 have a poor 1-68 record in this race
* Horses aged 3 with 9 + career runs were 0-48
* Horses that come from conditions races struggle
* They have a 1-100 record in this race
* Horses that come from Listed or Group class are 0-67
* Horses that lost by 6 or more lengths last time were 2-165
* None of these were absent over a Month or came from 7f
* None of these had 1-2-3-4-5 runs this season (0-84)
* Fillies have a 1-61 record in this race
* That was a 4yo with under 7 runs and 3 runs that year

POSSIBLES

NOVERRE TO GO – Has an acceptable profile
JONNY MUDBALL – Just enough to shortlist
PALACE MOON – Reasonable chance

SELECTION

STRIKING SPIRIT

The 3 Possibles above have decent chances but none of them
are quite right statistically and have minor flaws. Whilst I can say the same
about STRIKING SPIRIT he is a whisker away from being perfect and
I think he has as good a chance to win this as any. He was only beaten
6 lengths in last years race on ground too soft when he went off too fast
and I think he was badly drawn last year.
This year he has proved himself to be  a Top notch sprint handicapper.
He’d be my choice at 16/1.

16/1 paying out on 5 places available at Bet365 and Stan James

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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Racing At Ascot

ASCOT, UNITED KINGDOM - JUNE 19:  Ryan Moore a...
Image by Getty Images via @daylife

A few thoughts for Ascot today from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

ASCOT 3.50

Victoria Racing Club International Stakes
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)7f

7/1 Tagseed, 8/1 Decent Fella, 8/1 Yaa Wayl, Poet´s Place,
12/1 Crown Choice, 12/1 Himalya, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Mac´s Power, 16/1 Suruor, Swift Gift, 20/1 Imperial Guest 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Something, 25/1 Advanced,
25/1 Al Muheer, 25/1 Big Noise, Hacienda, 33/1 Al Farahidi
33/1 Gallagher, 33/1 Glen Molly, 33/1 Hajoum.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-105
* There has been 10 renewals of this race
* There has been 40 similar Class 2 handicaps elsewhere in July
* Starting with a quick shortlist of whats won this race
* All 10 winners were Male horses
* Horses aged 4 have dominated winning 8 of the 10 races
* Horses that were other ages have struggled
* 3 year olds (1-55) 5 year olds (1-57) Horses aged 6 + (0-60)
* You want between 5 and 20 Career starts
* Exposed horses had a 1-100 record in the 10 renewals
* You ideally want 4 + runs this season if having 9 + runs
* Horses with 9 + runs and 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-51
* Horses with 4-5 runs this season were best
* Your horse is best coming from Ascot or Newmarket
* 9 of the 10 winners came from one of those tracks
* You don’t want a horse that has run in Group 1/Group 2 before
* 9 of the 10 winners ran 2-7 weeks ago
* None were absent more than 7 weeks
* Those running within 2 weeks were 1-84
* Horses from Listed or Group races were 0-35
* Horses from 6f or shorter had a weak record
* Those with 9 or more career starts  from 6f were 0-42
* No horse had 5 or more previous wins (0-66)
* These Ascot angles leave a shortlist of 2

TAGSEED – MAC´S POWER

Both drawn wide apart. You could bet one and save
on the other. Its a guess which in my view is best so
as its the bigger price my Number 1 would have to be
MAC’S POWER but the sensible thing is to see which
side of the draw is favoured from previous races here
today and be prepared to switch if the draw dictates it.

Tagseed best price 11/1 Coral

Mac’s power available at 16/1 Paddy Power Bet365 VC * more

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Racing Tip For Chester

Chester 3.20 ( from www.mathematicianbetting.co.uk )

BENEDICTE  £50 Win Bet 7/4 +
( 2/1 available at Betfred )

CRABBIES ALCOHOLIC GINGER BEER
MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES(CLASS 4) (3yo+)  1m2f75y

9/4 Crazy Chris, 5/2 Benedicte, 3/1 Nesayem, 6/1 Amroth,
12/1 Triple Cee, 50/1 Sacco D’Oro, 66/1 Amber Glow.

This is an all aged Maiden for fillies. There has been about 29 races like this at this time of year. Unraced horses were 0-46 so SACCO D´ORO is rejected. I dont want any horse beaten 10 lengths or more last time. They’ve a 1-27 record. AMBER GLOW would’ve failed that in a bumper last time out. Its very Interesting that 28 of the 29 winners were 3  year olds. Older horses have a poor 1-47 record. I’d worry CRAZY CHRIS is an older horse and that he has to give 6lbs to 4 Three year olds. It wouldnt be a surprise if one was too strong for her. The following is interesting

* September-October has 380 all aged maidens
* Thats 380 maidens at every and any distance
* Older Fillies like CRAZY CHRIS have a 6-391 record
* Those with under 4 career runs are 0-188
* Those with under 2 runs that season are 0-136

Those stats are not as great as they sound as many of
them were not fancied but it raises great doubts about
CRAZY CHRIS’s ability to give weight away and I’d
be looking for an alternative. AMROTH doesnt have
any major flaws I can see. BENEDICTE was expensive
and you can bet she wasnt at her best last time out and
had a quiet introduction. I don’t want TRIPLE CEE as
horses from 3yo handicaps were 0-24 and she comes
down from 13f to 10f and I see her as unsafe. I would
look to AMROTH as one of the potential winners but
BENEDICTE looked quite an interesting runner. Very
well bred half sister to Amadeus Wolf and I think she
will improve a lot on her second run. NESAYEM  sets
the benchmark coming from Handicaps rated 67. She
sets a reasonable standard and will be able to draw on
her experience here. What draws me to BENEDICTE
is the fact NESAYEM whilst attractive statistically
couldnt beat Pyrus Time two runs ago at Lingfield
and that horse has a 0-14 record and was beaten in
a seller yesterday and is exposed and I think I should
give the chance to BENEDICTE to improve past her.

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Free Horse Racing Tips

Free Horse Racing Tip

Free Horse Racing Tip from www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

HAYDOCK 2.55

Betfred.COM OLD BOROUGH CUP
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)
(3yo+ 0-105) 1m6f

5/1 Kings Destiny, 6/1 Alanbrooke, 7/1 Hits Only Vic, 10/1
Chiberta King, 10/1 Yes Mr President, 12/1 Magicalmysterytour 12/1 Nemo Spirit, 14/1 Conquisto, 14/1 Precision Break, 16/1 Highland Legacy, 20/1 Gordonsville, 20/1 Lord Theo, 20/1 Som Tala, 20/1 Spring Jim, 25/1 Macorville, 33/1 Clear Reef 33/1 Hindu Kush.

This Old Borough Cup has 9 renewals and although
it has upgraded over the years in class its a good stats
race and I think we should be able to get this sorted.
I would advise you follow these trends in the race

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs had a 0-51 record
* Every past winner had at least 4 runs that season
* Every past winner was aged 3-4-5
* Every past winner ran within 7 weeks
* Every past winner finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time (0-57)
* No winner lost by 6 or more lengths last time (0-62)
* No past winners dropped from 2 Miles or more
* Horses aged 4 or more coming from 12f or less are 0-43
* This leaves to a shortlist of 2 horses
* ALANBROOKE – KINGS DESTINY
* I think KING’S DESTINY stands out
* Look at horses aged 3 in this race from 12f races
* When they have between 5 and 8 career starts
* When they finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time out

3 year olds that have that profile had a 4-5 record in this
race. The 5 horses finished W W W 2 W and the only one
that didnt win finished second to one of the winners so he
couldnt have won. Thats the outstanding profile in this race and I am placing KINGS DESTINY in the new statistically strong horses paragraph.

SELECTION

KINGS DESTINY – Win Bet  11/2 at Blue Square, CanBet , sportingbet

Horse Racing Tip For Newmarket

NEWMARKET 3.15

7/4 Cosmopolitan, 5/1 Lyceana, 13/2 Something Perfect,
7/1 15/2 Fanditha, 12/1 Astrodonna, 12/1 Penzena.

SELECTION – COSMOPOLITAN

This is a 8f Fillies Handicap for 0-84 rated horses and there’s been 11 renewals of this race and 68 elsewhere. Horses with 3 runs struggle. I wouldn’t be interested in PENZENA with 3 runs LYCENA is a seasonal debutant. I do not like that profile. I’ve found 3 that won first time out much as none dropped in trip as she does. I would not see her as a selection. ASTRODONNA has a poor profile and none were like her in 68 races. I have no major problems with SOMETHING PERFECT but None like him won this race at Newmarket but did win other races at other tracks.
SOMETHING PERFECT looks competetive to me but a win on
her debut has left her hardly thrown in. FANDITHA has a chance as well but I could only bet one horse.

COSMOPOLITAN is a 4yo thats just won a maiden. There
were four runners that did that and 3 won. In this race there were 3 doing it and 2 of these won so COSMOPOLITAN looks a big positive. She gave 11lbs to 3 year olds from some big stables when winning a maiden over 3 lengths last time. That suggests to me she could outclass  a 0-76 class field like this. She has a Group 1 entry but the fact she has 8lbs more than any other horse and only has a 0-76 class field to beat swings it for me.

SELECTION – COSMOPOLITAN
7/4 at Tote and Ladbrokes

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s Site Click Here ==> Horse Racing Tipster