Stratford Horse Racing Tip

STRATFORD 3.00

Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+)  2m6f110y

4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.

* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races

Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.

* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically

He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race

Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet

Guy Ward

To visit Guys site click here ==> free horse racing tips

Ascot Horse Racing Tip

ASCOT 12.55

4/1 Noakarad De Verzee, 5/1 River Ripples, Skipper´s Lad
6/1 Plein Pouvoir, 6/1 Pure Genius, 10/1 Knighton Combe
12/1 Flaco, 14/1 Plane Painter, 16/1 Aldiruos, 16/1 Sarahs Gift16/1 Senor Shane.

There has been 87 of these Novice Handicap Chases at
this time of year. No horse with 13 + starts dropped from
3m 3f or more so SKIPPER’S LAD isn’t like any of the
87 winners and is rejected. It’s interesting PURE GENIUS
is a mare and no mare came from 2m 4f or shorter as she
does so she is unlike any past winner either. None of the
87 winners were aged 10 or more and RIVER RIPPLES
fails that and has to come from 2m 4f or more so I dont
want him. I do wonder if PLEIN POUVOIR did enough
on his seasonal debut beaten 36 lengths just 18 days ago
and he surely isnt a certain stayer. FLACO isnt a negative
but I am happy to ignore him with 2 runs and coming via
a Novice Hurdle for Desert Orchid’s owner. My choice is
NOAKARAD DE VERZEE. Lightly raced. Unusual form
mixing Point to Points and Hunter Chases before he ran
well at Chepstow in a Handicap Chase. I think the issue
is whether he can win a 0-115 chase and the evidence of
his last run strongly suggests he can and I think he may
be very well handicapped and he could well outclass these.

SELECTION – NOAKARAD DE VERZEE

Now best priced 11/4 Ladbrokes, Hills, PaddyPower, Coral, VC

Provided by Guy Ward

To visit His site click here == > Racing Tips

Racing Tip For Haydock

Racing Tip For Haydock From www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Haydock 2.55

DANNY ZUCO

Each Way 9/2 CanBet   Ladbrokes   VC

I see todays selection as just a routine one and it
was closer to being a no bet day than an account
bet day. We knew this particular Saturday was one
where we had no Flat racing on Grass and that our
options would be limited and its possibly the worst
Saturday card of the season.

The only flat card today is the All Weather card
at Kempton and I would be hard pressed to name
a track that I dislike more. I detest the place with
a passion. I dont like my angles there. I dont like
the way races are run there and the place leaves
me cold and lacking confidence there. That said I
have a few races I’m previewing and have done as
much as I can there as its the only flat card.

**********************************************

T O D A Y ‘ S   R A C I N G

N A T I O N A L    H U N T

Given that Kempton is the only Flat card today to be
confident of a great message I needed some excellent
jump cards and I dont feel I have that today and I am
dissapointed with the National Hunt cards especially
as none of these have any history to fall back on and
it wont be easy to nail anything today.CARLISLE has
a tedious all chase card as they always do these days.
Big fields make the meeting even harder. In the end
I felt only 1 race was worth a quick preview.

HAYDOCK throws us a nasty card. Not many races I
wanted to preview there but I will do the 2.55pm race.

HAYDOCK 2.55

Blue Square “FIXED BRUSH” NOVICES’ HURDLE FINAL
BONUS RACE (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) 2m4f

3/1 Burton Port, 6/1 Danny Zuko, 6/1 Fredo, 6/1 Rouge Et Blanc, 8/1 Sparrow Hills, 10/1 Fiendish Flame, 10/1 Magellan Straits, 12/1 Border Reiver, 12/1 Quinz, 12/1 Riddleofthesands, 16/1 Broken Beau, 20/1 Karmadice

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 31 similar races at this time of year
* Thats 31 races in Class 2-3-4 over 19f – 22f
* I want to oppose horses that are up in distance
* Horses from 16f and 17f had a 4-116 record in 31 races
* Those aged 5 that came from 17f or less were 0-36
* FIENDISH FLAME fails this and has other problems
* No horse from a 16f race had more than 11st 4lbs
* MAGELLAN STRAITS also comes from a 16f race
* We know horses aged 5 doing that are 0-36
* FREDO is also a 5yo from 2 miles (0-36)
* KARMADICE is out coming from a 16f race
* RIDDLEOFTHESANDS comes from 16f
* He is also a 5yo and all 36 doing it lost
* No horse that came from 16f or 17f had under 5 runs
* All 27 that tried failed
* ROUGE ET BLANC fails that and is only a 4yo
* QUINZ is a bit too inexperienced for me
* None of the 31 winners came from a maiden hurdle
* SPARROW Hills fails that
* BROKEN BEAU also fails that
* BORDER REIVER is a 5yo unplaced last time
* No 5yo finished unplaced in a novice hurdle and won
* There look to be only 2 strong runners in this race
* BURTON POINT – DANNY ZUKO
* BURTON POINT was 4th in a Graded Hurdle last time
* Horses coming from Graded races were 2-5
* Both came from the same race as he did
* DANNY ZUCO has won a novice hurdle easily last time
* He gets 25lbs from BURTON POINT and thats a lot
* I think I would prefer DANNY ZUCO because of that

SELECTION – DANNY ZUCO 9/2 Each Way

besy Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk