2000 Guineas Analysis

2000 Guineas message from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

—————————————————————–

It is 2000 Guineas day today. There are some big
poweful meetings today. There’s plenty of rain in
the air as well and some changing in the ground.
Always a danger of overstretching yourself and
doing too much on this particular Saturday. The
message for full members has 7 previews including
five handicapsand the 2000 Guineas itself which is
fascinating.

The seven races start slowly and build up into a
strong finish. Early doors there are 2 Goodwood
handicaps and they are just standard bottom of
the message races. I take in the Guineas and the
Palace House Stakes but we are not really in the
territory we should be for account bets. I like a
good go at the Thirsk Hunt Cup and have done
well there over the years. This year I like a 16/1
chance but it is probably too difficult this year.

The two races I like best are two divisions of a
5f Handicap at Thirsk at 5.15pm and 5.45. Same
angles apply in both races. Sometimes Thirsk is
such a seductive track as the angles there can
be out of this world but it is a track that throws
up results that make the angles look ridiculous
at times but despite that I feel strong in these 2
races and thats where I feel we should be going.

For full members there are Account Bets in these two thirsk races.

For the free blog however we will take a look at the the big race of the day
the 200 Guineas

****************************************************
****************************************************

NEWMARKET 3.05

Stan James.com 2000 Guineas Stakes
(Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (3yo)1m

Evs St Nicholas Abbey, 7/1 Elusive Pimpernel, 9/1 Canford Cliffs 10/1 Awzaan,
12/1 Fencing Master, 20/1 Al Zir, 20/1 Dick Turpin 20/1 Inler, 20/1 Xtension,
28/1 Makfi, 33/1 Hearts Of Fire 40/1 Viscount Nelson, 66/1 Fair Trade,
100/1 Buzzword 100/1 Elspeth´s Boy, 100/1 Lord Zenith,
100/1 Red Jazz 200/1 Audacity Of Hope, 200/1 Greyfriarschorista.

The 2000 Guineas is fascinating as ever. There are so many
issues in this race. I can throw killer stats at everything in the race.
It depends mainly on ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and whether
Aidan O Brien’s horse needs further.
Those people opposing ST NICHOLAS ABBEY have valid arguments.
It is true his Sire has a poor Group 1 record with Milers.
It is also true running over a mile as a 2 year old has not been a good thing to
do in this race but it has been done and he is clearly going to be top class.
The issue for me is what can I sensibly oppose him with. I think there are few alternatives.

With ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL he is already well held by the
favourite. I dont see winning the Craven as a big help and
he is also a middle distance horses. I think he find Stall one hurts him.
Since 2007 Newmarket’s had 25 races with 14 or more runners.
Stalls 1-2-3 had a 1-72 record in these races and that sole winner was
Sea The Stars a wonderhorses. I’d argue ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL may
be in trouble from his draw trying to get into the race.
AWZAAN also has a poor draw in Stall 2 and has to come from a 6f race
and has never run at further than 6f. I read in the paper recently that in the last
50 years there was only 1 winner of this race that never previously ran at 7f
or more and that was in 1999 and a race generally viewed as one of the worst
Guineas in years and over 100 of these horses like AWZAAN had tried.
He lacks a good profile and a good draw. FENCING MASTER makes limited appeal.
He looks like he wants further just as both his parents did and all his siblings.
CANFORD CLIFFS did not look certain to stay the 7f in the Greenham so
there has to be serious doubts about him staying a mile and beaten in a trial is
hardly a ringing endorsement. I cant have INLER as a horse coming from 6f with
just 1 career start. I’d question whether XTENSION has the class. AL ZIR needs to improve
so much and has already been beaten up by the favourite in
the Racing Post Trophy. I can see the argument to suggest
that DICK TURPIN is overpriced at 25/1 and could place. I
do think there are good arguments about every runners. In
the end it came down to ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and I dont
see a horse I can offer as a sensible alternative. I’d pick him.

SELECTION

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY

Check the link below for best current odds

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-05-01/newmarket/15-05/betting/

Saturday Racing Analysis

Saturday Racing Analysis from Dave Renham of RacingTrends

To Visit Dave’s site Click Here ===> Horse Racing Statistics

Two big races today where I have taken a 20 year trends approach in an attempt to create some shortlists.

3.10 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 12 of the last 20 winners came from second to fourth in the betting. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £24.00 (ROI +36.4%).

Last time out winners: 17 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Price: 16 of the last 20 winners have been priced between 3/1 and 11/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £37.00 (ROI +41.6%).

Seasonal debut: 14 of the last 20 winners were making their seasonal debut.

Draw: In big fields (18+ runners) all winners have been drawn middle to high. The lowest winning stall position in such races has been 12.

Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times since 1998. Sir Michael Stoute has been successful 3 times in 1997, 2000 and 2001.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market position: Horses 7th or bigger in the betting market have provided 2 winners from 215 runners for a loss of £172.00 (ROI -80%).

Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 148 runners.

Career starts: Horses that raced 8 times or more in their career have provided 0 winners from 44.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 3 wins from 20 for a loss of £11.67 (ROI -58.4%).

Course winners: Course winners have won 7 races from 97 (SR 7.2%); non course winners have won 13 races from 245 (SR 5.3%).

Trends analysis: Essentially this has been a market driven race although favourites have a poor record. Horses 2nd to 4th in the betting have proved the most successful and indeed profitable. Last time out winners not surprisingly have a good record, while horses making their seasonal debut are around 5 times more likely to win than horses that have already run this year (wins to runs ratio). Big priced outsiders (33/1 or bigger) have not scored in the last 20 years. Finally, runners from the stable of Aidan O’Brien clearly demand the upmost respect.

Conclusion – no horse perfectly matching the trends so we have to find horses that match the trends the best. Both Aidan O’Brien’s horses did not win LTO (which is a negative) and of the pair Mastercraftsman looks the right portion of the betting. Arguably the best fit is Evasive – currently 10/1 4th favourite. So from a trends perspective Evasive and Mastercraftsman look the rip. Rip Van Winkle if deposed as favourite (which is possible) then that would make up the trends trio.

3.45 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes – 5f Group 3 (3yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 15 of the last 20 winners were single figure prices.

Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 9 winners. That equates to 45% of the races from which they have provided just 20% of the total runners.

Market position LTO: 12 of the last 20 winners were favourite or 2nd favourite LTO.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price LTO: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger on their previous start have provided just 1 winner from 47 for a loss of £30.00 (ROI -63.8%).

Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 3 winners from 101 runners for a loss of £59.00 (ROI -58.4%).

Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group company LTO have provided just 3 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £37.50 (ROI -65.8%). However, they have provided 2 of the last 4 winners.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 8 wins from 23 for a profit of 34 pence!

Age: 3yos have won 5 races from 60 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 4yos have won 7 races from 76 qualifiers (SR 9.2%); 5yos have won 5 races from 44 qualifiers (SR 11.4%); 6yos have won 2 races from 38 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 7yos+ have won 1 race from 42 qualifiers (SR 2.4%).

Sex of horse: Male runners have won 16 races from 199 runners (SR 8%); female runners have won 4 races from 61 (SR 6.6%).

Trends analysis: Horses priced in single figures is a potential starting point, while, it looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by 4 or more lengths LTO and those that were priced 16/1 or bigger on their most recent start. Combining this one positive and two negative stats your shortlist would have found the winner in 70% of the races from just 27% of the total runners. Another negative worth using when eliminating runners is horses aged 7 or more.

Conclusion – Chief Editor, Borderlescott and Amour Propre are the obvious three for the trends pick.

Best Wishes

Dave Renham

www.RacingTrends.co.uk