Saturday Horse Racing Tip

Lingfield 3.35   INTERNATIONALDEBUT

Each Way Single Best Price 10/1 William Hill , Ladbrokes, Coral

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On the Service for Full Members of www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
there are seven previews today with 5 at Lingfield and 2 at Wolves.
The 1.20 at Lingfield is a novelty selection
so lets ignore that to start with. That leaves 6 previews.
It sounds far too ambitious to say this – especially as its
Lingfield and its a Saturday but the remaining 6 previews
have produced 6 very strong selections. I feel that I have
Nailed it today and I fancy all 6 very strongly. I think it
is that good a message. Realism tells me I have no hope
of getting 6 winners in 6 races but I dont see where my
weak link are and I wouldnt have a problem at all with
making any of the 6 selections and had the prices been
better in a few cases even account bets were possible in
many of these races. This makes picking the right ones
today for the top of the message a nightmare.

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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

Yesterday we had no business and just side stepped a pretty
limited day that didnt offer anything. Hope thats put me in
the right frame of mind for a much busier day today. With
all the inspections and marginal decisions about what is on
and whats off I decided to concentrate mainly on the sand.
Its a Number Cruching Blockbuster at Lingfield and Wolves
and whilst maximum respect is given both tracks I have had
a good crack at both meetings and hope for a good day.

For the free blog I am lookign at just one race at Lingfield.

LINGFIELD 3.35

WIILIAM HILL TOP TEAM FOOTBALL
PRICES HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m2f

9/2 Lady Jane Digby, 5/1 Baylini, 11/2 Philatelist,
8/1 Ace Of Hearts, 8/1 Formation, 8/1 Internationaldebut,
14/1 John Terry, 16/1 Al Muheer 33/1 Prairie Spirit.

* This is a 10f handicap for horses rated 0-100
* We have had about 64 similar races run before
* PRAIRIE SPIRIT looks unfit to win a race like this
* ACE OF HEARTS is a 10 year old
* None of the 64 winners were that old
* He also has to step up from a Mile
* No horse aged 8 or more managed that
* He also has just 1 run since October
* He isnt well treated for his age and hasnt won at 10f before
* I dont see ACE OF HEARTS as a good bet here
* AL MUHEER has only ever won a maiden
* That instantly made him badly handicapped
* All 14 races since he has lost and is only 5lbs lower
* He has never done the trip before
* It will need to improve him a lot to win a 0-100
* That said AL MUHEER might find that improvement
* He is a fair price at 14/1 and has an outside chance
* JOHN TERRY looks more of a 12f horse
* He has a chance but I have to prefer others
* The race 14 days ago at Lingfield could be important
* FORMATION won that race at 11/1
* LADY JANE DIGBY was 2nd and BAYLINI 3rd
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT was back in 4th
* Less than 2 lengths seperated all 4 runners
* FORMATION won that race 14 days ago
* He had previously been beaten in a claimer
* I think the race was run to suit him last time
* I wouldnt be confident he would beat them all again
* His draw in stall 2 could be an issue
* The last 13 handicaps here with 8 or more runners
* None went to horses drawn in stall 1 or 2
* Only 1 went to a horse drawn 3 as well
* Higher drawn horses have had the edge recently
* This puts me off FORMATION and CONFIDENTIALITY
* I dont want to shortlist FORMATION
* LADY JANE DIGBY is another filly
* Fillies that came from handicaps were 1-45
* They dont score well but you have to respect her
* She’s in form – unexposed and has run in the class before
* LADY JANE DIGBY is respected and shortlisted
* BAYLINI has a chance but does have a bit to prove
* He hasnt yet won from his mark or in the class before
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT is a big runner for me
* He has won from marks of 87 and 92
* Today he has a mark of 95 but that doesnt worry me
* His last 3 runs all had excuses from marks of 99
* Three runs ago he dropped from 8f to 6f a big problem
* I didnt fancy him that day and he duly lost
* Two runs ago he moved up to 7f
* He had a 0-50 stat to overcome that day and lost
* That was no surprise as it was also his Southwell debut
* He ran in the race 14 days ago behind Formation
* He was a fast finishing 4th that day but he may improve
* That day he was up from 7f to 10f
* That had to have inconvenienced him
* Now conditioned at 10f he looks a big runner
* PHILATELIST is respected and has a chance
* He is slowly getting fit now
* Not the best handicapped horse in the race but all class
* PHILATELIST has to be respected but not for me

SHORTLIST

INTERNATIONALDEBUT
LADY JANE DIGBY

SELECTION – Its a wide open race but I feel I have made
a reasonable case for INTERNATIONALDEBUT and he is my main fancy in the race.
I think his last run has been criminally ignored. He was inches behind 3 of these when
having a 3f step up in trip which disadvantaged him. I feel
10f here must be in his range lookingat his form especially
here. If they got off hard he might be suited to a come from behind run and if there
is no pace he has a turn of foot. I see him coming fast and late and whilst this is not easy
and he does have a bit to prove like many others he looks the forgotten horse and a really big price around 10/1

SELECTION – INTERNATIONALDEBUT  EACH WAY