There are 16 Grade 1 hurdles races in each year’s racing calander.

Ten of them are run during the Cheltenham and Antree Festivals.

They are a niche of racing worth examining closer.

Dave Renham has dug into many years worth of past races to try and discover profitable angles.

See his findings  here Grade One Hurdles

Nb the above pages requires a free account on his punterprofits site to read everything.  Free access there also gets you access to many more bits of horse racing research.

Another free racing tip today for us from Guy over at

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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H a y d o c k  4.30

3/1 Mister Hyde, 4/1 Upthemsteps, 6/1 Cannington Brook
6/1 Scoter Fontaine, 7/1 Lackamon, 7/1 Majala
12/1 Empress Orchid, 12/1 Monsieur Cadou.

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Handicap Chase
* There are 6 renewals of this race
* The 6 winners had 3 4 4 5 3 5 chase runs
* The 6 winners had 6 4 4 5 3 3 runs this season

I would ideally want 3-4-5 chase starts and at least
3 runs this season. CANNINGTON BROOK has 9
Chase starts perhaps more than ideal and I can not
bet him as no winners came from 3m 6f down to a
2m 4f race. Every past winner came from a 2m 4f
race or further. Not sold on SCOTER FONTAINE
who won a 2m race last time. EMPRESS ORCHID
is out as a mare from 2m. MONSIEUR CADOU is
out without any Chasing experience. LACKAMON
and MAJALA both come from Graded Chases and
thats not a typical preparation for a race like this.
I respect UPTHEMSTEPS but he has just 2 chase
starts less than all past winners and he has fewer
runs this season than every other horse and that
worries me on soft ground at this track. The best
bet looks to be MISTER HYDE who came down
in a better class race last time. He will find these
fences much easier than Cheltenham and down in
class and well treated I like him best.

Selection – MISTER HYDE 5/1 EachWay

at various spots including Tote VC Bet365 Coral

We picked up a great winner at 9/1 last weekend from Guy’s advice

see  here.

As mentioned last week these Strong Stats are just a very small snippet from Guy’s much larger daily message.  Somedays they indicate a posive for backers as per last week. Others days they indicate a horse Guy feels should be opposed for statisical reasons.

How you oppose it is up to you. It may be a straight lay or you may wish to back another horse you fancy in the race with the knowledge that there are strong arguments against this one here.

Nb with Cheltenham coming up and Guy haveing a long standing reputation for producing some exceptional Cheltenham Analsis you could do worse than sign up to his free newsletter click here ==>  free horse racing tips.

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Wolverhampton 3.15

Going with a draw statistic today as it affects the
second favourite in the race who now looks badly
drawn. This statistic also supports the match bet
today as I am opposing the badly drawn favourite.

* I looked at all 9f handicaps since the start of 2011
* The Draw shows a small bias against low numbers
* There were 56 handicaps here with 9+runners
* Horses drawn 1 and 2 had a 2-106 record
* Only 1 of the last 53 races went to horses drawn 1 or 2
* Son Vida is opposed here.

Layable on Betfair at about 9/2

This is a sample message from Dave Renham’s excellent RacingTrends Service.

NOT a tipping service. Much more so a stats service aimed at those who like to have well researched information to aid them making their own backing or laying decissions.

Typically he will produce separate messages covering both flat and national hunt.  This is the flat version which just happens to be all all weather racing today.

If you are interested in a  short free trial of this service to test it more fully yourself contact me and let me know and I will try and swing it for you.

Flat Message for Sat 4 Feb 2012

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT –

this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain
race types

Lingfield aw favourites

Wolverhampton aw favourites

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking
at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less
often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples
- hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner
handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle
third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

Wolverhampton aw 7f (2.05, 2.40) low draws
have a slight advantage although it is not a strong enough bias to be fully
confident in.

POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW) Please note – some
are price** or going* dependent 4.05 Lingfield – Falcon’s Reign **:
J Noseda – Lingfield aw; male aged 2 or 3yo; must be favourite; SR 56% ROI +30%
(win & pl 76%)

NEGATIVE STATS – Please note – some are price** or going*
dependent 4.05 Lingfield – Godber: Poor Jockey Stat – 7lb claimers
riding 2 and 3yos ALL RACES; SR 6% ROI -48% (win & pl 19%)

POOR VALUE LAST TIME OUT WINNER – The idea is to find horses
that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats
for all LTO winners in Flat races the strike rate (SR) is 16.2% and losses are
-16.7%. These are my benchmarks. None today

PACE INFORMATION

Lingfield aw 6f handicap (2.00) – Front
runners have a decent enough advantage. Here are the ratings for this race:
Waterloo Dock 3.9 Captain Dimitrios 3.3 Microlight 3.3 Efistorm 3.2 Mandy’s
Hero 3.1 Captainrisk 2.8 Waabel 2.8 Cut The Cackle 2.2 Fantasy Fighter 1.8 Forty
Proof 1.8

Conclusion – Waterloo Dock looks the best trading option here.

Lingfield aw 6f handicap (2.30) – Here are the ratings for
this race: Royal Intruder 3.6 High Voltage 3.1 Slatey Hen 3.1 Chjimes 2.5 Custom
House 2.4 Court Applause 2.4 Picansort 2.2 Diamond Vine 1.8 Memphis Man 1.5
The Wee Chief 1.5 Conclusion – no real front runner
to trade here.

Horses mentioned in 2 or more sections – none

RECENT TRAINER FORM – FLAT (last 14 days exc. Friday) – in
strike rate order

COURSE TRAINER STATS FLAT
Lingfield trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Thursday

(ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Wolverhampton trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Thursday
(ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

The below is a newish section fromThe Mathematician’s very comprehensive daily racing message.

He calls it the Strongest Statisic Today

In short it points to something interesting found

through his research.

Some days it may point to a horse to think about backing.

Other days it may be a strong stat that could lead you to opposing a short priced favourite.

=====================

S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c  T o d a y

Uttoxeter 2.10

VICTORIA ROSE 10/1

Another Positive Statistic today. I dont expect her
to win rated lower than most of her rivals but she is
a double figure price and comes out curiously well so
I wouldnt put anyone off having a small interest bet.

* All Mares Novice Chases run in January
* Horses from Handicap Hurdles
* Between 7 and 20 career starts
* Running over 19f or more last time
* Between 1 and 4 runs that season
* There were 8 horses with that profile
* They finished W 2 W W W W W W
* VICTORIA ROSE  shares that profile

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS price has come in a  bit since Mathematician Members got this earlier today. Now best priced 9/1 at VC

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Over Under Soccer Betting

A couple of football bets today from 99Reds over at the Football Bets service.

99Reds is an ex player manager so has a better feel for the game than most.
He is however a soccer stats freak and it is stats research that is the cornerstone of the long term
profitable record he has built up for clients there.

Here are a couple of his suggestionss for today

12.45pm   Liverpool to Beat Man Utd   8/5   Coral, Ladbrokes   1pt

1.00pm   Hereford v Shrewsbury   Over 2.5 goals   23/20   Hills   1pt

To visit his site clieck here ==> Football Betting Tips

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Each Way Betting. What is Each Way Value?

What really makes a good each way bet?

Firstly lets just re-iterate exactly what an each way bet is. It’s
a bet traditionally offered by UK bookmakers consisting of two separate
bets: a win bet and a place bet. For the win bet to give a return the
selection must win, for the place bet to win the selection must either
win or finish in one of the predetermined places, i.e. 2^nd
or 3^rd. Your stake for an each way bet will be the same on
both parts, so if you bet “£5 each way”, you are betting £5 win
and £5 to place – a total of £10.

Ok so that’s the simple stuff out of the way.

Now let’s talk value.

Betting at value is essentially placing a bet at bigger odds than what
the true chances dictate the odds should be. Of course finding out what
the true chances of something happening are and therefore the relevant
odds isn’t an exact science. Therefore it simply comes down to a matter
of finding “perceived value”.

So with an each way bet we need to evaluate both the win odds AND the
place odds to get an idea of how the prices stack up against our ideas
of a value price.

Opportunities arise with each way betting because the place price offered
against a horse is a fixed fraction (normally 1/5 or ¼) of its win
price, and so may bear little or no relation to its actual chance of
being placed.

There are general misconceptions that
say that betting each way at odds under 5/1 represents a poor bet. And
often horses quoted around 25/1 are touted as great each way bets, on
the basis that the place pays around 5/1.

I’m going to suggest to you that ANY price can represent each way value.

Whether its 10/1 or 10/11.

The calculation that most people do before placing an each way bet is
to work out their returns should the horse only place. So a horse placing
at 4/1 (1/5 place odds) would give a return of £9 from a £5 each way
bet – a loss of £1 overall.

To look at this potential loss in isolation is to look at each way betting
from a narrow and blinkered angle.
This is an entirely wrong perspective in my opinion.

You see lets assume that the horse in question is actually a true 4/1
shot, and therefore it’d win one in every 5 runnings of the same race
on average.

Buts lets also assume that there is very little else other than the
first three in the betting with any real form. And therefore that it
would place on average 80% of the time.

Finding 10 bets like this could easily give the following results from
£5 each way bets:

4/1 unplaced -£10

4/1 3^rd -£1

4/1 2^nd -£1

4/1 Won +£24

4/1 2^nd -£1

4/1 2^nd -£1

4/1 unplaced -£10

4/1 3^rd -£1

4/1 2^nd -£1

4/1 Won +£24

Total P/L +£22

Remember this is a true 4/1 shot, so it would only ever be a break even
situation betting win only. But because of the favourable place terms,
we’ve turned a break even series of bets, into a winning one.

Of course finding horses that have about 80% chance of placing yet can
be backed at 4/1 each way do not come up everyday, but they do come
up more often than you might think.

Two obvious places you might find instances where the place odds make
each way betting favourable are 8 or 9 runner races with an odds-on favourite and 16 runner handicaps.

The principle is the same whatever the race though. It is comparing
the each way place price against the actual chances that will reveal the true value of an each way bet.

Paul Ruffy –

—————————————–

Paul Ruffy is a respected horse racing advisor
specialising in each way betting on uk horse racing.

Visit his site for more info

Click Here ==> Visit Paul’s Site

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Back Fitting Of Horse Racing Systems

The term back fitting when applied to horse racing systems
can be summarised as over engineering selection criteria
putting all logic and common sense aside in order to produce
what on paper looks to be a profitable historic approach.

The big danger in doing so is that non sensible criteria are likely to
lead to future losses even if researched history shows positive results.

Who Can Fall Prey To Back Fitting?

You perhaps

If you research your own systems it is important to try and think logically.
Are there good reasons why your selection criteria are likely to produce good results?
Be careful not to use silly criteria just because by random fluke
the monkeys with type writers of historical results scatter happen to show some positive results.

If you buy systems from a system vendor tread carefully too.
Remember the seller is often primarily concerned with making a quick buck from you.
Often what he cares about is putting up a big sexy past profits pound sign in front of your nose.
They want your cash today and care little about whether what they have sold you with a pile of hype
has significant chance of doing well in the future.

For more reading around this general concept of back fitting see
the article below.

==> Four Simple Horse Racing Systems

Guy’s good run came unstuck last weekend.

He finally had a losing weekend after five winning weekend’s in a row for us here.

Read below his suggested betting advice for today.

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A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, Bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 Bet365 Betfred Sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

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Our usual free horse racing tip from Guy over at the Mathematician Site is below.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Free Horse Racing Tips

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SERVICE NEWS

There are 69 days to the Cheltenham Festival. In
aviation terms the National Hunt flight takes off
in November with the Destination Cheltenham in
March. We have been through the turbulance of
weeks 1 and 2 in January where the racing is poor
and one of the bumpiest parts of the trip. Now as
we come to weeks 3 and 4 in January the flight is
now starting a gradual descent down to destination.
During that descent passangers will be able to see
some great landmarks like the Tote Gold Trophy
now known sadly as the Betfair hurdle. There is
the Skybet Chase – The Victor Chandler at Ascot
and many other statistically strong races. We are
entering Ante Post Season now which is always a
lot more interesting than the drudgery you get on
the Sand and the lower grade national hunt cards.
I plan to do full statistical previews for all the big
trials and I always get excited at this time of year.

SATURDAY’S RACING

The horse I am most excited about today
and the strongest bet advised today to Full Members,
runs in a very early race today. I will leave metioning it here
on the free betting blog.

For the free tip today we are off to Warwick for one of the later races.

W a r w i c k   3.40

5/1 Sona Sasta, 6/1 Neptune Equester, 7/1 Blazing Bailey
7/1 Strongbows Legend, 8/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Faasel
10/1 Hey Big Spender, Bench Warrent 14/1 Fredo
14/1 Morning Moment,16/1 On Borrowed Wings
20/1 Hello Bud 20/1 Miko De Beauchene.

* The Classic Chase is a high class 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are 20 similar races at this time of year.
* Not a great stats race as it has changed over the years
* There is a small sample size of these races as well
* MORNING MOMENT – Not for me 8lbs out of the weights
* All recent winners had more backclass than him
* His last run was poor and he has a weak profile
* Only 2 winners overcame heavy defeats to win similar races
* They all had Backclass in Graded races and he doesnt
* I’d also argue he may not stay this far
* MIKO DE BEAUCHENE looks wrong aged 12
* He has not ran a good race in over 2 years
* He is out of the handicap and offers nothing
* FAASEL is 11 and has a miserable profile
* I dont want to bet an exposed 11yo first time out
* I looked at every race in January
* Thats every distance , every class and any kind of race
* I looked at exposed horses aged 11 or more first time
* None managed to win beyond 3 Miles
* None managed to win beyond a Class 4 race
* The only Handicap Chase winner was 2m 5f in Class 4
* FAASEL has a very hard task in my view
* He has never won beyond 2m 5f before either
* HEY BIG SPENDER comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* That hurts his profile and so does his weight
* Horses with 11st 8lbs in this race were 0-17
* HEY BIG SPENDER also has to prove he stays this far
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 3f yet
* BENCH WARRENT comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* He may struggle to get over a hard race at Chepstow
* Statistically I can live with him
* I cant forgive him a hard 4th in the Welsh National
* Not with a very inexperienced jockey
* ON BORROWED WINGS comes from 22f
* No winners did that in any similar race in January
* His last Chase was only in a Novice Handicap
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* FREDO is exposed and doesnt do it for me
* No exposed horse won when  aged 8
* None won when coming from 3m or shorter either
* FREDO also has to show he stays
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* HELLO BUD is too old aged 14
* I looked at every winner aged 13 or more over 3m 2f +
* Thats in any race and at any time of year
* There was only 1 winner beyond a Class 3 race
* That was Spot The Difference in a Cross Country Chase
* Out of form aged 14 he is not worth betting
* BLAZING BAILEY comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* I can accept the argument he is a class horse
* And that he will like the ground and the drop in class
* You can also argue he didnt have too hard a race at Chepstow
* Statistically though he is not strong
* I looked at all exposed horses running within a month
* They had a bad record and none ran as badly as him last time

S h o r t l i s t

* MAJOR MALARKEY has 1 run this season
* Thats easily my biggest problem with him
* Past winners had  1 2 3 2 6 2 4 runs that season
* Last years winner was a 9yo with 1 run this year
* That really does help his profile
* Last years winner also had 9 Chase starts like him
* Last years winner helpsm to gets him shortlisted
* Without that evidence I’d have opposed him
* Still bothers me he’s the only horse with 1 run

* STRONGBOWS LEGEND is hard to read aged 7
* All 7 year old winners were placed last time
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND Fell which isnt a good preparation
* Ignore that and he won 25 lengths before that
* This is said to be a very well handicapped horse
* His lack of backclass bothers me a bit
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND has no form beyond Class 3 grade
* The last 7 winners all had Graded form
* Almost every similar winner had more backclass too
* He is 5lbs out of the handicap as well
* I like him a lot but not sure if he has the class

* SONA SASTA has 5 Chase starts
* We have had recent winners with 4 and 6 chase starts
* I’d have liked a slighly better last run
* I can overlook that as he hasn’t done much wrong
* If the grounds right he must be a player
* He has to prove he stays this far though
* Thats not certain on his breeding

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – No strong problems with him
* He did the right thing avoiding the Welsh National
* I dont see why he shouldnt go well

Selection

NEPTUNE EQUESTER 13/2 Each Way

13/2 available at Bet365

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-14/warwick/15-40/betting/

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