Hennessy Gold Cup Tips

Saturday sees the 2015 running of the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury

If seeking some inspiration to solve this race then take a quick
peek at some detailed data at the link below from Mathematician Betting

They are also running a free to enter tipping comp on this Hennessy race
where you can win you valuable full membership time on their horse
racing advisory service.

See here ==> Hennessy Gold Cup 2015

 

 

 

 

Paddy Power Gold Cup At Cheltenham

Paddy Power Cheltenham Gold Cup

This below was extracted from the free newsletter over at Guy Ward’s Mathematician Betting site.

It contains some useful insight into today’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

If you want to join that free newsletter youself you can do so here

==> Free Horse Racing Tips

=======================================================

#1 New Ante Post Section..what’s that all about then?

Well not long range ante post tips but I guess a self thinker

reader may self choose to make a self decided ante post bet

any time they want.

From Guy’s point of view it is more so about research

preparation work on upcoming major races.

Most of his focus on any given day will be on that day’s

normal racing. But if he can snatch a bit of free time

he will put it to good use with advance research for a major race.

The November Handicap stats I sent you last week were

extracted from this new Ante Post section.

This week I have for you his thoughts into Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup.

You can see from the dates below that full members have been getting it in

dribs and drabs from Tuesday Nov 3rd over time as Guy completes various

angles of research.

Note below how his positive and negative list

builds up over time. It’s probably worth saying that Guy himself

would not always totally blinker himself to only his positives.

A mild negative stat can be overlooked if market odds

are excessive and offer good value.

Saturday’s message will contain his final day of race opinion

once final runners, going day of race market odds etc are

more firmed up.

 


Tuesday 3rd

A n t e P o s t

New Column

Won’t be filling it up with long range bets

I want to start the countdown to the Paddy Power

Building a list of positives and negatives

Cheltenham Saturday 14th November

Paddy Power Gold Cup

8/1 Kings Palace 10/1 Monetaire, Boondooma

12/1 Cocktails At Dawn, Present View, 12/1 Irish Cavalier

12/1 Johns Spirit, 16/1 Oscar Rock, Thomas Crapper,

20/1 Buywise, Clarcam 20/1 Ptit Zig, Sound Investment

20/1 Splash of Ginge, 20/1 Taquin Du Seuil, 20/1 Annacotty

25/1 Art Mauresque – 33/1 Bar

KING’S PALACE – David Pipe

Current Race favourite

Breeding Stats Positive

He is a 7yo seasonal debutant

He has 4 Chase starts

Recent winners had the following chase runs

5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7

I’d have been happier with another Chase run

Gets extra points for Cheltenham Form

5 winners aged 7 were seasonal debutants

They were Males with 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs

The horse with 3 Chase runs won the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Again that extra chase run would have helped

Another issue to consider is the big field

How robust is he and how will he cope

Verdict – Positive Profile

MONETAIRE – David Pipe

Seasonal debutant aged 9 with 12 Chase starts

Cyfor Malta 2002 had the same profile

He was a past winner of this race though

He had achieved a lot more than Monetaire

His career best Racing Post Rating over fences is 146

If you look at the last 15 winners and their career best

Monetaire comes out as Joint 11th best of the 15

Not keen he is sired by a Flat sire

Not keen he started life on the flat

He scrapes through my breeding stats

But only 1 horse (The Last Derby) gets him there

I find his breeding profile unsatisfactory

Verdict – Unsatisfactory


Wed 4th

BOONDOOMA 10/1

Dr Richard Newland

BOONDOOMA has been out and won at Cheltenham

He has 4 Chase runs

Recent winners had 5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7 runs

Would have been safer if he had managed 5 chase runs

19 of the last 21 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form

BOONDOOMA only has Grade 3 form

That is another concern about his profile

There were 3 recent 8yo winners

They won from marks of 150 137 146

BOONDOOMA has to defy a higher mark of 154

That’s a worry when you consider no Grade 1-2 form

The 3 winners aged 8 had 8 10 7 previous Chase runs

BOONDOOMA only has 4

Look at the 7 winners that ran this season

They all ran within the past 17 days

Horses running this season absent 18+ days are 0-59

BOONDOOMA fails that albeit only just

Gets Positives for a Cheltenham win

Gets Positives for a Career best run last time

But he has to step up from a 2m 5f race

For me there are too many holes in his profile

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Current Negatives

Monetaire

Boondooma


Sunday 8th

Paddy Power Gold Cup

ANNACOTTY was gambled yesterday

Several firms cut him from 20/1 to 16/1-14/1

One very significant positive for me

Is he has upgraded stables this season

Martin Keighley to Alan King is a good upgrade

Most recent winners were lighter raced over fences

Go back a decade or so and some were like him

He does not fit the ideal range of 5-12 Chase starts

That said the 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7

Had 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs

ANNACOTTY with 13 Chase runs is worth considering

He is a Grade 1 winner

He is a Grade 3 winner at Cheltenham

His Numbers certainly show enough class

Alan King has nominated the race as a target

I certainly wouldn’t rule him out

His last 2 seasonal debuts were defeats when favourite

That wouldn’t put me off to be honest

Has to be in the Positives

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire

Boondooma


Tuesday 10th

Looking at the 6 year olds now

IRISH CAVALIER

PTIT ZIG

LA VATICANE

There are only 3 potential runners this year aged 6

I don’t think a 6yo will win it this year

Only 5 winners aged 6 since 1994

Horses aged 6 have a 4-46 record since 1997

The 4 recent winners aged 6

Won from handicap marks of 139 139 136 138

PTIT ZIG has to defy a mark of 159

IRISH CAVALIER has to defy a mark of 156

There handicap marks are far higher than any 6yo winner

If you look at 6 year olds rated 140 or more

All 27 that raced were beaten

There was a 148 rated winner aged 6 in 1996

He had considerably less weight though

LA VATICANE has a lower rating

She is a seasonal debutant mare though

She is surely too inexperienced with just 2 starts

Only 1 recent winner had under 5 Chase starts

That ended up a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner

I just feel this years 6 year olds have too much on

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma

Irish Cavalier -Ptit Zig – La Vaticane


Wednesday 11th

Yesterday I showed how Saturday’s Badger Ales

Chase was dominated by lightly raced Chasers.

The last 9 winners of this race

Had the following chase runs before

5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5

None of the last 9 winners had 10 or more Chase runs

Horses that had 10 + Chase runs were 0-70

I think we need to take that hint

There are 28 horses left in this race

They have the following Chase runs

7 11 19 8 5 4 4 6 17 12 7 14 8 10

13 6 12 11 8 7 12 23 7 15 28 8 2 2

I think we must stay with horses with under 10 Chase runs

This leads to the following horses being rejected

DOUBLE ROSS 17 Chase runs

JOHNS SPIRIT 19 Chase runs

CROCO BAY 13 Chase runs

NEXT SENSATION 14 Chase runs

BENNYS MIST 23 Chase runs

TURN OVER SIVOLA 15 Chase runs

ASTRACAD 28 Chase runs

ANNACOTTY also has 13 Chase starts

I already have him on the positives list

I am now more inclined to put him on the negatives list

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay

Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit

Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist

Annacotty is now on both lists


Thursday 12th

Yesterday I opposed horses with over 10 Chase runs

DARNA should have been in that list

I don’t want a 9yo debutant anyway

I don’t want a very poor recent run

PRESENT VIEW pulled up in the last 2 weeks

EASTER DAY pulled up in the last 2 weeks

SPLASH OF GINGE ran too badly too recently

LITTLE JON ran too badly too recently

GENEROUS RANSOM had a poor last run over hurdles

No past winner ran recently over hurdles

He also lacks backclass

Every past winner had form in a Graded race before

20 of the last 22 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form

GENEROUS RANSOM does not have that

CLOUD CREEPER lacks Graded form as well

THE CLOCK LEARY won’t run and is too inexperienced

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay

Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit

Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist – Darna

Easter Day – Present View – Generous Ransom – Cloud Creeper

The horses we have yet to reject are below

KING’S PLACE – ANACOTTY – ART MAURESQUE

SOUND INVESTMENT – SHANPALLAS – BUYWISE

OSCAR ROCK – COCKTAILS AT DAWN


Friday 13th

The Final Declarations are in

There are 22 runners

No idea if this process we are doing will work

I want to tidy up our shortlist with 24hrs to go

SHANPALLAS is rejected

He has not looked like a Paddy Power winner recently

SOUND INVESTMENT is also rejected as well

He has 11 Chase runs more than the last 9 winners

He has Topweight as well

His ratings task is the same as Al Ferof in 2012

Thats a 7yo winning off 159

Al Ferof was a multiple Grade 1 winner

He had won a Supreme Novice hurdle as well

SOUND INVESTMENT is just a Grade 2 winner

He has never raced at Cheltenham before

Surely asking a lot to win off topweight

Without any experience on the track

ANACOTTY has been a positive and negative

I have to make a judgement call with him

I am taking him off the shortlist

13 Chase runs is a lot for a seasonal debutant

24hr Shortlist

OSCAR ROCK – I’d prefer a recent run + track form

COCKTAILS AT DAWN – Has positives + negatives

KING’S PLACE – Profile fine

ART MAURESQUE – We can no longer rule out 5yo’s

BUYWISE – Close enough to the past 8yo winners

Soccer Tip Investment

I believe many out there set off on their punting journeys

with totally incorrect base core assumptions and outlooks.

Harking back to my old life as a Civil Engineer I would say that

” A building is only as strong as it’s foundations”

If you set realistic and sensible visions and work at them you are more prone to achieve long term success than the pie in sky dreamer.

See this article over at  the Soccer Tip site which is a bit different to the normal high hype style of most betting tipsters.

Soccer Tip Investment

 

 

 

 

November Handicap Trends

Saturday sees the last day of the racing flat season.
The big race of the day is the November Handicap at Doncaster.

With such races where one has many years of past race
runnings to consider a fair analysis approach would be to use
a big race trends style approach.

In short this is all about examining many years past runnings
of the race to seek statistical clues about the profile of past winners.

Discovering horse traits that are negative can be a big aid too.

Once you know common qualities exhibited by past winners or
past losers you can go about checking this years runners to see how
they score for both desirable and undesirable form characteristics.

So for the November Handicap what sort of characteristics
should you be looking for ?

At this point I am not going to re invent the wheel.
Instead I am going to point you over to some detailed research work
carried out by horse racing analyst Guy Ward as he has popped
researched stats for the big race at Doncaster up on a webpage for you.

Here is the link November Handicap Stats

Aintree Grand National Tips 2015

Some say the Aintree Grand National  is a race for mug punters only.

Others would say with competition between early price bookies and Exchanges  creating close to a 100% book on the day it is not  a bad value race at all and more so just a matter of strike rate.

Whether betting in in the £100′s or to small tiny fun stakes it is a race most racing punters will have a degree of interest in.

Some will stick a magic pin in their newspaper.

Others will research a little bit deeper than that.

If you are off the school that prefers a little more thought and consideration than the magic pin approach then go read the following comprehensive stats, ratings and analysis piece by avid horse racing  researcher Guy Ward

==>  Grand National Tips

 

 

 

 

The Rise of NFL in the UK Betting Market

The sports betting market continues to grow in the UK, as does the interest in the NFL, with bookmakers recording record figures on NFL turnover in 2013, and that number has only grown in the last 12 months.

This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, given the huge rise in interest in the NFL in a country that, as of this season, has now seen one or more games at Wembley for eight straight years, as well as increased talk of a franchise heading in London’s direction.

The increase in media coverage on the game is obvious to those that have followed it for a long time, and with that growth in popularity comes further interest from bookmakers. This season has not only seen record figures on turnover, but also a healthier competition between firms on their wide range of markets on offer.

Changing focus

Where sites were once dedicated to Spanish soccer games, golf, or the next Premier League matchup, Sunday evenings are now an array of NFL betting opportunities, with countless pre match and live markets giving you every chance to maximise any angle you may have.

Whilst the NFL is the first of the big Stateside sports to permeate into the British betting mentality, it is unlikely to be the last, given the massive market that exists for all four big sports in Vegas. That is certainly the big reason as to why the NFL was allowed to grow as a product initially, but now established, it cannot be the only reason bettors remain interested.

And indeed, looking at the betting opportunities in Week 15 of this season, it isn’t hard to see why that interest lingers. For a start, in the UK, the NFL is placed in a prime time to bet, starting only minutes after the final Premier League game of the day, just as bettors settle down for the evening. Whether they are looking to further their profit, or claw back some earlier losses, there are three lots of games on, allowing for singles and parlays to add to the interest of their night.

It is fast becoming a ritual for many to sit on the couch from 6pm until past midnight and catch six plus hours of coverage offered on a cable service, whilst more avid fans opt for the live streaming package offered by the league. This access, more than ever before, has more than contributed to the growth of the product in the UK, as has the simplicity of the markets.

More choice

Given that soccer and horse racing are the two primary sports to bet on the UK, it is rare you have the simple two way market, as is offered almost solely on the NFL. With soccer, there are, for the most part, three possible outcomes, whilst with horse racing, much knowledge must be garnered until you can be confident to pick a winner from a field of ten or more.

However, given the nature of the NFL, it is easy to go down a list of games and parlay six teams. Moreover, with live betting becoming the force that it is in the UK, the stop-start nature of the games make betting much simpler than soccer for instance, given that the ball may not leave the field for up to five minutes at a time.

Will Geno Smith throw a pick this quarter? Reckon Aaron Rodgers can throw for 310 yards this week? Think the Titans will earn more than 5 wins this season?

These are all yes/no answers, and are much easier to offer for bookmakers that have struggled to grow their soccer product in the past decade.

However, for some, it isn’t the simplicity that is paramount to their betting experience. Being able to choose one way or another is a given, so for those bettors, it is being secure in the knowledge that a vastly larger bet can be had.

Due to the aforementioned strength from Vegas, the NFL markets in the UK are priced tightly by bookmakers, and as such, larger stakes are more readily taken than in other major sports, such as golf or tennis. You are much more likely to have a $25,000 bet accepted on the Broncos to beat the Chargers than on Rafael Nadal to beat Roger Federer for instance.

In the UK, with online betting a way of life for many at this point, new opportunities are bound to arise, but right now, it is the NFL that is maximising that potential, and as one of the fastest growing products around, it can only get bigger and better. Whilst the sport will remain American to the core, perhaps the UK betting industry will soon have a thing or two to teach the rest of the world when it comes to gambling on the NFL.

 

 

Cesarewitch Racing Tip

If you have an interest in today’s Cesarawitch
well worth a look is The Mathematician’s preview of this race.

It is one of the more detailed pieces I have ever seen.

See Cesarewitch Tip

 

Such in depth style is not unusual however from Maths

See how he found big price value in some other recent major big races at these links

The Cambridgeshire

The Arc De Triomphe

 

 

 

 

 

Old Borough Cup Tip

See below for some extra insight into todays Old Borough Cup.

This piece is actually a small extract from The Mathematicians
much larger Saturday Horse Racing analysis message.

===============================================

Haydock 3.15

4/1 Havana Cooler, 8/1 Epsom Hill, 8/1 Quest For More
9/1 Hassle, 10/1 Glenard, 10/1 Nautilus, 12/1 Chancery
16/1 Big Thunder, 16/1 Communicator, Goodwood Mirage
16/1 Novirak, 20/1 Aramist, 20/1 Eagle Rock, 25/1 Be Perfect
25/1 Lady Kashaan, 25/1 Saptapadi, 33/1 Shrewd.

A surprising good profile in the Old Borough Cup
this year. I just want to keep an eye on a couple
of things. I can’t bet GOODWOOD MIRAGE given
he may not get home over this far after a break.

* Horses that came from 2m or longer were 1-53
* Horses aged 3-4-5 doing this are 0-35
* HASSLE – BIG THUNDER – QUEST FOR MORE fail this
* LADY KASHAAN – BE PERFECT also fail this
* NOVIRAK is rejected with 1 run this season
* COMMUNICATOR has a bad draw and poor last run
* The horses above are Negatives

Selection

* NAUTILUS and GLENARD are mild positives
* EAGLE ROCK also shortlisted but not my choice
* CHANCERY has a solid chance
* HAVANA COOLER looks to have every chance

Best Profile

* Horses aged 3
* Winning last time out
* Coming from 12f-13f-14f
* Between 6-7-8 career starts
* Running within 7 weeks
* There were 3 horses that had this profile in this race
* Caqui D’Or WON 11/2 in 2001
* Peppertree Lane WON 9/2 in 2006
* Regal Flush WON 4/1 in 2007
* Horses with this profile were W W W
* EPSOM HILL has this profile

Selection

EPSOM HILL 8/1

Each Way

As the goals flew past Julio Cesar during a simply astonishing period of the first half, punters who had sold Brazil’s Supremacy on the spreads were cheering probably just as loudly as the German fans inside the Mineirao Stadium in Belo Horizonte.

You see with football spread betting, the potential winnings are not capped like a fixed odds bet, so the more your team or bet increases their winning margin, the more profit your bet makes.

For spread betters who had placed a Supremacy spread bet getting against the Brazilians with SpreadEx, every goal that the Germans plundered increased their winnings meaning profits of six times their stake size at the final whistle.

However, it’s important to remember that unlike fixed odds betting, with spread betting you can lose more than your initial stake should your bet go against you. So those who had bought Brazil’s Supremacy at 0.2 would have been left feeling just as miserable as the host nation’s huge fan base as they lost 6.2 times their initial stake.

Football Supremacy spread betting v fixed odds Match Winner betting

For football spread betters, the Supremacy market is one of the most popular
spreads to play on among the hundreds of prices on offer. But just how does
the Supremacy spread betting maket work?

Let’s look at the Brazil v Germany pre-match betting in more detail to
explain how to bet on this market and how it compares to traditional fixed odds
Match Winner betting.

Before the game, Brazil – surprisingly to some perhaps given the absence
of Neymar and Thiago Silva from their line up – were rated as very slight
favourites by the bookies.

In fixed odds Match Winner market terms this meant Brazil were 8/5 to win and
Germany were 15/8. This translated to a spread betting Supremacy price of Brazil/Germany
0 – 0.2.

So a £100 fixed odds bet on Germany to win at 15/8 would have returned
£187.50 in profits (not including the original £100 stake), however
a £100 sell of Brazil’s Supremacy at 0 would have returned £600
in profits ((6 – 0) x £100).

Of course, you can’t score 0.2 goals in a game; the spread here simply
gives an example of how much stronger the spread betting firms think one team
is over another.

So in a one sided encounter you may see a spread firm offer a Supremacy spread
of Team A/Team B 1.9 – 2.1. This would mean the firm thinks Team A will win
the game by about a two goal margin.

In each case you can play the Supremacy spread based on who you think will win
the game. If you think a particular team will win by more goals than the spread
or by less than the spread, or if you think the underdogs will win (when the
market would end up with a negative make-up) you can buy or sell accordingly.

E.g. for the second World Cup semi-final, SpreadEx has a Supremacy price of
Argentina/Netherlands 0.1 – 0.3. Again this suggests, that Argentina are slight
favourites, reflected in the fixed odds Match Winner prices of Argentina at
7/5 and the Netherlands at 11/5.

If you were playing the spreads and fancied Argentina to win by a goal, you
would buy Argentina’s Supremacy at 0.3. If they won by a goal you would
win 0.7 times your stake (1 – 0.3), if they won by a two goal margin you
would win 1.7 times your stake (2 – 0.3), if they won by a three goal
margin you would win 2.7 times your stake (3 – 0.3) and so on. If the
match was a draw, you would lose 0.3 times your stake (0 – 0.3), if Holland
won by a goal you would lose 1.3 times your stake (-1 – 0.3), if Holland
won by a two goal margin you would lose 2.3 times your stake (-2 – 0.3)
and so on.

The attraction to spread betters is that if you have a strong view that one
team is going to be more dominant than the spread suggests, then you can potentially
end up with greater profits from this type of bet than simply backing a strong
favourite at very short odds.

The other reason that many punters love to play the Supremacy market is the
ease of executing bets in-play. The Supremacy spread is constantly updated during
a match so it will change after every goal to indicate the updated view of how
many goals a team may end up winning by. It will also change every few minutes
if there hasn’t been a goal scored to reflect the updated price.

For punters this means you can open or close bets at any time during a match
to take a profit or cut a loss. For example, anyone who had closed out their
Supremacy bet before Brazil scored their consolation goal in the final minute
would have been able to take a price of 6.9 resulting in profits 6.9 their initial
stake rather than the final 6 times stake conclusion.

So next time you take a look at the fixed odds Match Winner prices on a close
encounter, before you instantly switch to Half-Time / Full-Time or Correct Score
options instead, maybe bear in mind the spread betting Supremacy market for
a different way to bet on which team you think will win a football match.

Visit SpreadEx where you can bet tradional bookmakers bets and spread betting
as well.

Grand National Betting Tips

It’s a pretty crazy race but who isn’t going to have a pop at it.

If stuck for inspiration yourself take a look at

how pro punter Guy ward is tackling the race this year.

His write up is probably one of the most in depth out there.

see ==> Grand National Tip