November Handicap Trends

Saturday sees the last day of the racing flat season.
The big race of the day is the November Handicap at Doncaster.

With such races where one has many years of past race
runnings to consider a fair analysis approach would be to use
a big race trends style approach.

In short this is all about examining many years past runnings
of the race to seek statistical clues about the profile of past winners.

Discovering horse traits that are negative can be a big aid too.

Once you know common qualities exhibited by past winners or
past losers you can go about checking this years runners to see how
they score for both desirable and undesirable form characteristics.

So for the November Handicap what sort of characteristics
should you be looking for ?

At this point I am not going to re invent the wheel.
Instead I am going to point you over to some detailed research work
carried out by horse racing analyst Guy Ward as he has popped
researched stats for the big race at Doncaster up on a webpage for you.

Here is the link November Handicap Stats

Aintree Grand National Tips 2015

Some say the Aintree Grand National  is a race for mug punters only.

Others would say with competition between early price bookies and Exchanges  creating close to a 100% book on the day it is not  a bad value race at all and more so just a matter of strike rate.

Whether betting in in the £100′s or to small tiny fun stakes it is a race most racing punters will have a degree of interest in.

Some will stick a magic pin in their newspaper.

Others will research a little bit deeper than that.

If you are off the school that prefers a little more thought and consideration than the magic pin approach then go read the following comprehensive stats, ratings and analysis piece by avid horse racing  researcher Guy Ward

==>  Grand National Tips

 

 

 

 

The Rise of NFL in the UK Betting Market

The sports betting market continues to grow in the UK, as does the interest in the NFL, with bookmakers recording record figures on NFL turnover in 2013, and that number has only grown in the last 12 months.

This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, given the huge rise in interest in the NFL in a country that, as of this season, has now seen one or more games at Wembley for eight straight years, as well as increased talk of a franchise heading in London’s direction.

The increase in media coverage on the game is obvious to those that have followed it for a long time, and with that growth in popularity comes further interest from bookmakers. This season has not only seen record figures on turnover, but also a healthier competition between firms on their wide range of markets on offer.

Changing focus

Where sites were once dedicated to Spanish soccer games, golf, or the next Premier League matchup, Sunday evenings are now an array of NFL betting opportunities, with countless pre match and live markets giving you every chance to maximise any angle you may have.

Whilst the NFL is the first of the big Stateside sports to permeate into the British betting mentality, it is unlikely to be the last, given the massive market that exists for all four big sports in Vegas. That is certainly the big reason as to why the NFL was allowed to grow as a product initially, but now established, it cannot be the only reason bettors remain interested.

And indeed, looking at the betting opportunities in Week 15 of this season, it isn’t hard to see why that interest lingers. For a start, in the UK, the NFL is placed in a prime time to bet, starting only minutes after the final Premier League game of the day, just as bettors settle down for the evening. Whether they are looking to further their profit, or claw back some earlier losses, there are three lots of games on, allowing for singles and parlays to add to the interest of their night.

It is fast becoming a ritual for many to sit on the couch from 6pm until past midnight and catch six plus hours of coverage offered on a cable service, whilst more avid fans opt for the live streaming package offered by the league. This access, more than ever before, has more than contributed to the growth of the product in the UK, as has the simplicity of the markets.

More choice

Given that soccer and horse racing are the two primary sports to bet on the UK, it is rare you have the simple two way market, as is offered almost solely on the NFL. With soccer, there are, for the most part, three possible outcomes, whilst with horse racing, much knowledge must be garnered until you can be confident to pick a winner from a field of ten or more.

However, given the nature of the NFL, it is easy to go down a list of games and parlay six teams. Moreover, with live betting becoming the force that it is in the UK, the stop-start nature of the games make betting much simpler than soccer for instance, given that the ball may not leave the field for up to five minutes at a time.

Will Geno Smith throw a pick this quarter? Reckon Aaron Rodgers can throw for 310 yards this week? Think the Titans will earn more than 5 wins this season?

These are all yes/no answers, and are much easier to offer for bookmakers that have struggled to grow their soccer product in the past decade.

However, for some, it isn’t the simplicity that is paramount to their betting experience. Being able to choose one way or another is a given, so for those bettors, it is being secure in the knowledge that a vastly larger bet can be had.

Due to the aforementioned strength from Vegas, the NFL markets in the UK are priced tightly by bookmakers, and as such, larger stakes are more readily taken than in other major sports, such as golf or tennis. You are much more likely to have a $25,000 bet accepted on the Broncos to beat the Chargers than on Rafael Nadal to beat Roger Federer for instance.

In the UK, with online betting a way of life for many at this point, new opportunities are bound to arise, but right now, it is the NFL that is maximising that potential, and as one of the fastest growing products around, it can only get bigger and better. Whilst the sport will remain American to the core, perhaps the UK betting industry will soon have a thing or two to teach the rest of the world when it comes to gambling on the NFL.

 

 

Cesarewitch Racing Tip

If you have an interest in today’s Cesarawitch
well worth a look is The Mathematician’s preview of this race.

It is one of the more detailed pieces I have ever seen.

See Cesarewitch Tip

 

Such in depth style is not unusual however from Maths

See how he found big price value in some other recent major big races at these links

The Cambridgeshire

The Arc De Triomphe

 

 

 

 

 

Old Borough Cup Tip

See below for some extra insight into todays Old Borough Cup.

This piece is actually a small extract from The Mathematicians
much larger Saturday Horse Racing analysis message.

===============================================

Haydock 3.15

4/1 Havana Cooler, 8/1 Epsom Hill, 8/1 Quest For More
9/1 Hassle, 10/1 Glenard, 10/1 Nautilus, 12/1 Chancery
16/1 Big Thunder, 16/1 Communicator, Goodwood Mirage
16/1 Novirak, 20/1 Aramist, 20/1 Eagle Rock, 25/1 Be Perfect
25/1 Lady Kashaan, 25/1 Saptapadi, 33/1 Shrewd.

A surprising good profile in the Old Borough Cup
this year. I just want to keep an eye on a couple
of things. I can’t bet GOODWOOD MIRAGE given
he may not get home over this far after a break.

* Horses that came from 2m or longer were 1-53
* Horses aged 3-4-5 doing this are 0-35
* HASSLE – BIG THUNDER – QUEST FOR MORE fail this
* LADY KASHAAN – BE PERFECT also fail this
* NOVIRAK is rejected with 1 run this season
* COMMUNICATOR has a bad draw and poor last run
* The horses above are Negatives

Selection

* NAUTILUS and GLENARD are mild positives
* EAGLE ROCK also shortlisted but not my choice
* CHANCERY has a solid chance
* HAVANA COOLER looks to have every chance

Best Profile

* Horses aged 3
* Winning last time out
* Coming from 12f-13f-14f
* Between 6-7-8 career starts
* Running within 7 weeks
* There were 3 horses that had this profile in this race
* Caqui D’Or WON 11/2 in 2001
* Peppertree Lane WON 9/2 in 2006
* Regal Flush WON 4/1 in 2007
* Horses with this profile were W W W
* EPSOM HILL has this profile

Selection

EPSOM HILL 8/1

Each Way

As the goals flew past Julio Cesar during a simply astonishing period of the first half, punters who had sold Brazil’s Supremacy on the spreads were cheering probably just as loudly as the German fans inside the Mineirao Stadium in Belo Horizonte.

You see with football spread betting, the potential winnings are not capped like a fixed odds bet, so the more your team or bet increases their winning margin, the more profit your bet makes.

For spread betters who had placed a Supremacy spread bet getting against the Brazilians with SpreadEx, every goal that the Germans plundered increased their winnings meaning profits of six times their stake size at the final whistle.

However, it’s important to remember that unlike fixed odds betting, with spread betting you can lose more than your initial stake should your bet go against you. So those who had bought Brazil’s Supremacy at 0.2 would have been left feeling just as miserable as the host nation’s huge fan base as they lost 6.2 times their initial stake.

Football Supremacy spread betting v fixed odds Match Winner betting

For football spread betters, the Supremacy market is one of the most popular
spreads to play on among the hundreds of prices on offer. But just how does
the Supremacy spread betting maket work?

Let’s look at the Brazil v Germany pre-match betting in more detail to
explain how to bet on this market and how it compares to traditional fixed odds
Match Winner betting.

Before the game, Brazil – surprisingly to some perhaps given the absence
of Neymar and Thiago Silva from their line up – were rated as very slight
favourites by the bookies.

In fixed odds Match Winner market terms this meant Brazil were 8/5 to win and
Germany were 15/8. This translated to a spread betting Supremacy price of Brazil/Germany
0 – 0.2.

So a £100 fixed odds bet on Germany to win at 15/8 would have returned
£187.50 in profits (not including the original £100 stake), however
a £100 sell of Brazil’s Supremacy at 0 would have returned £600
in profits ((6 – 0) x £100).

Of course, you can’t score 0.2 goals in a game; the spread here simply
gives an example of how much stronger the spread betting firms think one team
is over another.

So in a one sided encounter you may see a spread firm offer a Supremacy spread
of Team A/Team B 1.9 – 2.1. This would mean the firm thinks Team A will win
the game by about a two goal margin.

In each case you can play the Supremacy spread based on who you think will win
the game. If you think a particular team will win by more goals than the spread
or by less than the spread, or if you think the underdogs will win (when the
market would end up with a negative make-up) you can buy or sell accordingly.

E.g. for the second World Cup semi-final, SpreadEx has a Supremacy price of
Argentina/Netherlands 0.1 – 0.3. Again this suggests, that Argentina are slight
favourites, reflected in the fixed odds Match Winner prices of Argentina at
7/5 and the Netherlands at 11/5.

If you were playing the spreads and fancied Argentina to win by a goal, you
would buy Argentina’s Supremacy at 0.3. If they won by a goal you would
win 0.7 times your stake (1 – 0.3), if they won by a two goal margin you
would win 1.7 times your stake (2 – 0.3), if they won by a three goal
margin you would win 2.7 times your stake (3 – 0.3) and so on. If the
match was a draw, you would lose 0.3 times your stake (0 – 0.3), if Holland
won by a goal you would lose 1.3 times your stake (-1 – 0.3), if Holland
won by a two goal margin you would lose 2.3 times your stake (-2 – 0.3)
and so on.

The attraction to spread betters is that if you have a strong view that one
team is going to be more dominant than the spread suggests, then you can potentially
end up with greater profits from this type of bet than simply backing a strong
favourite at very short odds.

The other reason that many punters love to play the Supremacy market is the
ease of executing bets in-play. The Supremacy spread is constantly updated during
a match so it will change after every goal to indicate the updated view of how
many goals a team may end up winning by. It will also change every few minutes
if there hasn’t been a goal scored to reflect the updated price.

For punters this means you can open or close bets at any time during a match
to take a profit or cut a loss. For example, anyone who had closed out their
Supremacy bet before Brazil scored their consolation goal in the final minute
would have been able to take a price of 6.9 resulting in profits 6.9 their initial
stake rather than the final 6 times stake conclusion.

So next time you take a look at the fixed odds Match Winner prices on a close
encounter, before you instantly switch to Half-Time / Full-Time or Correct Score
options instead, maybe bear in mind the spread betting Supremacy market for
a different way to bet on which team you think will win a football match.

Visit SpreadEx where you can bet tradional bookmakers bets and spread betting
as well.

Grand National Betting Tips

It’s a pretty crazy race but who isn’t going to have a pop at it.

If stuck for inspiration yourself take a look at

how pro punter Guy ward is tackling the race this year.

His write up is probably one of the most in depth out there.

see ==> Grand National Tip

 

Soccer Tip Over 2.5 Goal Methodology

The figures coming out of the soccer tip service these days
are looking pretty hot.

Back in October last year Louise the maths graduate
responsible for the tips there formulated an approach
termed The Over 2.5 Methodology.

A lot of historic data was researched with the focus on
over 2.5 goals betting.

All advices are always for over 2.5 goals.
That makes it an easy and unconfusing service to use.

With a strike rate of about 57 % it will suit
those who prefer to win more often than they lose.

New clients are greeted in a friendly fashion
with a two week test period for just £1.

Profit and loss figures are pretty good.
Little point me quoting them here now as
they will be out of date tomorrow.

Instead go see here results page
which includes a full data breakdown in
spreadsheet format.

Well worth a look if your interest in soccer
is mainly along the lines of strike rate, ROI
and profits and not in reading reams of
human hunch and waffle.

Here is the link to her site.

Soccer Tip

Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends

Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends

Racing research boffin Dave Renham over at

www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

has just sent out some interesting free research on this weekend’s

Cambridgeshire at Newmarket.

I have copied it here for you.

 


Cambridgeshire (3yo+)

 

 
Course – Newmarket
Distance – 1 mile 1 furlong
Date – September 28th
Average field size last 10 years – 32
 
 
Market Trends
 
Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12 for a break even situation.
Top three in betting: 4 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 6 wins for the top six in the betting.
Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
 
 
LTO stats
 
Days since last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 16 days or less.
Position LTO: 1 win for horses that won LTO (from 54 runners). 
Position LTO: 4 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 123 runners.
LTO favourites: 2 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 55 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 143 runners).
LTO price: Horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
LTO race type: Horses that ran in a non handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 71.
LTO course: Horses that raced at Newbury LTOhave provided 5 wins from 58. 
 
 
Age
 
Age
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
3
3
65
4.6
-£39.00
-60.0
4
3
129
2.3
-£82.00
-63.6
5
2
58
3.5
-£2.00
-3.5
6
2
36
5.6
+£82.00
+227.8
7+
0
35
0.0
-£35.00
-100.0
 
 
 
Official ratings (OR)
 
OR band
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
93 and below
3
110
2.7
-£39.00
-35.5
94-99
4
120
3.3
+£7.00
+5.8
100 and above
3
93
3.2
-£44.00
-47.3
 
Draw
 
Draws
Wins
Runners
SR%
1-11
3
110
2.7
12-22
4
110
3.6
23+
3
103
2.9
 
 
Breeding
 
Breeding
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
GB
6
140
4.3
+£20.00
+14.3
GER
1
4
25.0
+£6.00
+150.0
IRE
2
134
1.5
-£83.00
-61.9
USA
1
40
2.5
-£14.00
-35.0
Other countries
0
5
0.0
-£5.00
-100.0
 
 
Class change
 
Class change
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Down in class
0
33
0.0
-£33.00
-100.0
Same class
8
213
3.8
+£4.00
+1.9
Up in class
2
75
2.7
-£45.00
-60.0
 
 
Trainer stats
 
Trainers: 2 wins from 8 for John Gosden.
 
 
General stats
 
Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 2 wins from 56.
Claiming jockeys: 2 wins from 49.
Recent win: 7 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 149 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £25.00 (ROI +16.8%).
Handicap wins: Horses that had not won a handicap previously have provided 0 winners 53.
Course winners: Horses that have previously won at the course have provided just 1 winner from 55.
 
 
Conclusion – A race that averages 32 runners is going to be tough to unravel and whatever happens the trends can only be used to create a shortlist of candidates. A good starting point looks to be ignoring runners that raced in a non handicap LTO. They have had 0 winners in the last 10 years and they have made up 22% of the total runners. It also looks worth avoiding horses that have failed to win a handicap as well. From a positive perspective, horses that were priced between 9/1 and 20/1 LTO have a good record. They have provided 70% of the winners from only 37% of the total runners. There seems no significant age bias although 7yos+ are probably worth avoiding (0 wins and only 3 placed runners from 36). There has been little too in the draw.  
 

Best Wishes
Dave
www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

Sky Bet is to become the new title sponsor of The Football League under a new five-year agreement announced today.  From 2013/14, The Football League’s flagship competition will be titled ‘The Sky Bet Football League’, with its three divisions being titled ‘The Sky Bet Championship’, ‘Sky Bet League 1’ and ‘Sky Bet League 2’. 

This new agreement is Sky Bet’s first ever off-screen football sponsorship and is aimed at building even greater awareness of Sky Bet’s growing range of online and mobile betting services.

Sky Bet is currently the UK’s fourth-largest online bookmaker and the fastest-growing. Sky Bet’s mobile app is one of the top rated in the Apple App store and over 1 million UK residents have placed a bet with Sky Bet in the last 12 months.

 

Greg Clarke, the Chairman of The Football League said: “I am delighted to welcome Sky Bet to working with The Football League and its clubs.  This agreement takes our long-term partnership with Sky to a new level and provides a genuine boost to clubs ahead of the new season.”

 

Richard Flint, MD of Sky Bet, comments: “This is a ground-breaking partnership for Sky Bet.  We know that having a bet on the match can make it even more exciting. In the past fans would go into a betting shop on the way to the ground, but with our industry-leading mobile apps and website they can place their bets quickly and conveniently whether going to the match or watching it on Sky at home.

“Sponsorship of The Football League helps us engage with millions of football fans spanning all 72 league clubs.  It was important for us that we are able to demonstrate our commitment to all Football League clubs and fans nationwide.  The strength of our technology supported by a trusted brand that is part of the fabric of football means we’re ideally placed to add to the match-day experience of fans.”

 

Through Sky Bet, football fans can bet on match results, goal scorers and score predictions and can also access a wide range of in-game betting options. Sky Bet has also created a variety of Football League special bets to celebrate the new partnership and the 125th anniversary of The Football League. 

In addition to title sponsorship of the three divisions, Sky will also use its partnership with The Football League to explore opportunities to offer customers exclusive access to competitions and promotional offers, including access to Football League match tickets.

 

Sky Bet is based in Leeds and employs more than 500 people.  All of Sky Bet’s services are GamCare accredited and the company is also a signatory to the Remote Gambling Association Code on Social Responsibility.

In a separate agreement, also announced today, The Football League and Sky Sports have signed a brand new three year broadcasting rights agreement.  The new agreement, which delivers more live matches for fans, will begin in 2015/16 following the conclusion of the final two seasons of the current three-year agreement.