For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f - 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC Betfred

Best Wishes

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

1 - The Worst Tip Ever !

Last weekend’s blog tip was the worst tip ever.
Not that Maku ran a bad race finishing 2nd at 7/1 beaten by a head.
The analysis was almost spot on.
The horror was in the fact that Maku actually ran on Friday not Saturday when the tip was posted.
This was genuine human error.
My admin man posted it up. He was away from home confused with a borrowed PC and obviously working with insufficient caffeine in his system.

I have told him if he ever posts up a free blog tip again the day after it runs ..  to post up  a winner ..not a horse beaten by a head

2 - Full Service Cheap Price Cheltenham Deal

We are running a half price offer now for full membership.
Join today and your months membership obviously covers the upcoming Cheltenham festival.
If you are a regular blog reader you will know the sort of detail we go into.
For Cheltenham I work even harder for clients.
I doubt you will get a more comprehensive Cheltenham service anywhere.

You know you want in for Cheltenham so just do it now while it’s half price.

Here is the cheap price link
*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

A sample message from last year is at the link below

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-betting-advice.asp

On to Today

For full members we have a full account bet in the 4.05

Out of respect for them we can’t post that here.

A small snippet from the extra analysis section of the main message is copied below for you however.

KEMPTON 3.05

Racing Post Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

7/2 Nacarat, 4/1 Fistral Beach, 9/2 Kilcrea Castle,
8/1 Madison Du Berlais, 12/1 Atouchbetweenacara
14/1 Oedipe, 16/1 Le Burf, 16/1 Piraya, 16/1 Private Be
20/1 Razor Royale, 28/1 Something Wells, 33/1 Bible Lord
66/1 Ollie Magern.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 15 renewals of this race.
* There has been 70 similar races in Febuary
* Thats 70 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher

I think we can rule out Something Wells- Ollie Magern and
Bible Lord who wants a smaller field than this. PIRAYA may
also want a smaller field. All his dissapointing runs come in field sizes of 11 or more runners.
Horses with 1 run this year score badly. Those like ATOUCHBETWEENACARA who
have to step up in trip struggle and he didnt do enough for
me last time. OEDIPE has just 1 run this year and I don’t see enough in his profile to
forgive him that. Experience could be a problem for FISTRAL BEACH who has had
just 3 runs over Chases. The lightest raced chaser to win this was the high class
Gloria Victus who won this in 2000 with just five  chase starts and went on to run
in the Gold Cup after this race. It’s asking a lot for  FISTRAL BEACH to win
with just 3 runs. The 15 winners of this race all had more experience.
They had 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13 chase runs.
I am looking elsewhere. I dont know if LE BURF will have the class.
Most recent winners of this were unexposed. He isnt and none came from
Class 3 races or lower like him. He  isnt proven beyond doubt over this
distance and having never placed or won above a Class 3 grade before
he may just be found out on a career high mark.

NACARAT won this easily last year by 11 lengths although
he was in much better form last year.  This year he has been beaten miles in
all 3 races albeit in top class races. His issue is can he come back to form -
and can he show he stays this far on much softer ground than last year and
with a longer than ideal absence. If you look at the winners of this race in the
past you want a consistent horse thats been running well all year and NACARAT
does not fit that pattern. The Last 14  winners of this race ran 50 seperate times
in the season they won. In these 50 races in the season they won - the winners
managed to either Win or Place in 44 out of the 50 races. It’s
a strong statistic that shows you want a horse thats running well all season and
coming here with several wins and places this year. You want consistency as
much as anything else in this race and Last time out winners won 12 of the last
16 races  and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one
falling. NACARAT hasnt placed since 2009 and I reject him.

SHORTLIST

RAZOR ROYALE - Best outsider - Small chance - Shortlistable

KILCREA CASTLE - Profile is quite good and a strong runner

MADISON DU BERLAIS - Class horse and every chance

PRIVATE BE - The arguments for him are persuasive

SELECTION

I dont really want to be with Madison Du Berlais as this
is a Momentum race. I would want a better stable for this
class than Kilcrea Castle. You can look at Private Be in
two ways. Ideally I wouldnt want a 11yo up in trip but
the arguments for him on the track and with some of his
form is persuasive off 10st weight so a split stake bet.

PRIVATE BE 10/1
RAZOR ROYALE 20/1

Split Stake Bet

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

The tips below come from a bloke called Phil who is one of the experts at the Football Bets site.

Phil spent many years working for a bookmaker and hs turned down job opportunities as a soccer betting odds compiler to focus on his own personal betting.

As you can see he is not one for long winded wordy waffle.

His betting success comes from his personal database of soccer statistics.

The stats and numbers lead his advice not random human hunch.

At last count he was running at  a strike rate of 59% and had a very impressive profit on turnover of  24% at level stakes.

The tip below is just one of four today from him.

Bolton v Wolverhampton
First goal OVER 27mins at evens Bet365 PaddyPower 1.5pts
Saver bet on correct score 0-0 at 9/1 Sky sportingbet willhill extrabet 0.5pts

The following is a tip from Tammboy over at the Football Bets site.

Tammboy is an ex bookmaker odds compiler who has now turned his hand to winning cash

for his clients.

So far this season his strike rate is over 50% and perhpas even more impressive is a return on investment in the 40% region !!

This is just one of several bets he has today.

SPL – Kilmarnock WIN @ Evs (vs. St Mirren) – 3 Star Bet ( Bet365, Ladbrokes, PaddyPower )

Analysis

Kilmarnock vs. St Mirren

Kilmarnock are in good form having won their last 4 games on the trot. They’ve been strong at home managing to beat Celtic too. St Mirren haven’t been quite as impressive having not won any in their last 6, their away form in woeful too so this rates as a good bet at Evens for Kilmarnock to win.

To finfd out more about him click here ==> Football Betting Advice

—————–

I have a full Account Bet for full members today but due to respect for them

I can’t put it up here.

What I do have for you however on the free betting blog is some analysis for another race today.

This is just a small snippet from the full member message.

SANDOWN 2.45

Chemring Group Handicap Chase
(for The Alanbrooke Challenge Cup)
(CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-135) 3m110y

5/2 Shillingstone, 4/1 Any Currency, 6/1 Ma Yahab,
8/1 Double Eagle, 9/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Bowleaze,
14/1 Maktu ,14/1 Mount Sandel, 20/1 Wind Instrument
50/1 Offaly.

* This is a 3m Handicap Chase for 0-135 rated horses
* Sandown has had 27 similar races at this time of year
* There are 233 similar races elsewhere

This has been a lightweights race. The 27 Sandown races
show horses with 11st 10lbs or more having a 1-47 record.
SHILLINGSTONE doesnt appeal to me off topweight. He
looks vulnerable mixing a high weight with an absence as
a very lightly raced horse. You wont find a winner in 233
races anywhere that had a 7 week absence and a weight
or more than 11st 6lbs when as lightly raced as He is so
I am opposing SHILLINGSTONE. I think OFFALY looks
outclassed. MOUNT SANDEL has too much to do with
just 1 run this year and a large weight. I cant see a horse
like that winning. WIND INSTRUMENT has 2 poor runs
on his 2 runs this season and looks out of form. I think it
is likely BOWLEAZE is being aimed at the Kim Muir next
month. Besides that look at the 233 similar handicaps for
exposed horses that had not run in 10 weeks and there is
a 0-66 record there suggesting BOWLEAZE wont be fit.
ISN´T THAT LUCKY has a poor profile. He has to come
from 2m 4f with just two runs this year and no horse did
that in 233 races and he has a nasty absence as well. I
dont see MA YAHAB as the best option not exposed
and with just one run this season.

SHORTLIST

MAKTU
DOUBLE EAGLE
ANY CURRENCY

OR JAUNE has a strong profile. He is very similar to the
1992 winner and last years winner and he looks very well
treated at the moment. I like MAKTU who comes from a
Novice Handicap Chase. He is light on experience with
4 chase runs but his profile is interesting. Another lighter raced horse is DOUBLE EAGLE but he is unexposed and
comes out well statistically. ANY CURRENCY probably
has the strongest profile with the worry from his profile
the fact his trainer states he is only 90% ready and this
is a prep race for Cheltenham.

SELECTION

MAKTU 7/1

ANY CURRENCY (Saver 7/2)

Visually a superb day’s racing. There seems to be a lot of
really big priced horses in today’s message for full members
including a full Account Bet at 10/1 ish.

Here on the free blog however we have just the one race for you.

Not as strong in my opinon as the full member Account Bet
but an interesting runner at a good price.

NB If you abit more serious about your racing I suggest you join as a full member http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

You will get the full message not just one race snippets and all through the week not just on a Saturday. All historic messages are availalbe for you to view.  Also take a nose around the private forums to see what other racing brains are coming up with or have spotted. There is a no quibble refund guarantee to protect you if youdecide its not your personal cup of tea.

Anyhow  on to today..

WARWICK 2.50

Bet Totepool To Support Your Sport
Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-120) 3m1f

11/4 Sonny Mullen, 4/1 Winterwood, 5/1 Kristoffersen,
6/1 Oscar Prairie, 10/1 Merigo, 14/1 Mealagh Valley
16/1 Quelqu´un Comme Toi, 16/1 Radmores Revenge
16/1 Very Cool, 20/1 Inghwung, 25/1 Honour High.

* This is a Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1f
* Febuary has seen 89 similar handicaps
* There’s been 288 similar races between January-March
* SONNY MULLEN comes from 17f and has 4 runs
* I looked at 288 similar races over a 3 month period
* 9 of  the 288 winners came from 17f or shorter
* None had under 5 career starts like SONNY MULLEN
* Horses from any Novice race over 16f-17f were 0-38
* SONNY MULLEN also fails that
* Horses from 17f or less with over 11st were just 1-61
* SONNY MULLEN fails that as well
* Throw in an absence and he looks vulnerable to me
* Horses with 1 run this season concern me
* Especially when having 9 or more runs
* Especially when having no backclass
* RADMORES REVENGE doesnt look fit and fails that
* INGHWUNG is a mare with 1 run that year
* HONOUR HIGH also looks weak with one run
* MERIGO is thrown in on his hurdles form
* Rated 130 over fences he is running here off 110
* That makes him very interesting
* However there are some concerns
* Hard to know if he can translate his form to hurdles
* Hard to know if he is anywhere near fit
* It surely looks a prep race for a long distance chase
* MERIGO is 9 with 1 race that season
* He has no form in Listed or Graded races either
* Look at all 9 year olds with 1 race that season
* Look at the ones with no form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races
* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-67
* MERIGO has an unfit profile statistically
* MEALAGH VALLEY has a poor profile absent 688 days
* I dont see him overcoming that with just 4 runs
* OSCAR PRAIRIE is 5 and from a Novice Hurdle
* I looked at 288 similar races for horses doing that
* When coming from 2m 6f or shorter they were 0-22
* No 5yo like OSCAR PRAIRIE won any of these races
* Not coming from a Novice Hurdle short of 3 miles
* KRISTOFFERSEN doesnt make much appeal
* He is an exposed 10 year old with no Graded Class
* Only 5 of the 288 winners could say that
* None were absent over a month like him (0-64)
* None had under 4 runs that season like him
* He has a weak profile and the ground looks wrong
* All his wins have come on better ground than this

SHORTLIST

WINTERWOOD  7/2
VERY COOL  8/1
QUELQU´UN COMME TOI  16/1

WINTERWOOD is hard to judge. Lightly raced horse.
Most runs in Ireland. I dont think he has an impressive
profile. I looked at all horses like him with 7-12 runs and
an absence of 7 weeks or more.  You only find a few of
them won and the vast majority had less weight than he
does. I have shortlisted him but I’m not sold on his chance.

* VERY COOL could also go well off topweight
* He only has a 0-120 class race to win
* He has placed 2nd in a 0-140 handicap before
* He isnt exposed which has to help
* If he recaptures his form after a break he could win
* He stays and acts on the ground
* Statistically he has work to do
* I would want more runs this year or a recent run

SELECTION

QUELQU´UN COMME TOI

This horse is a mystery. There is limited evidence to know
how good he is or what type of horse he is. I think he is a
horse that will either win or come nowhere. I love his profile though.
His jockey (Aidan Coleman) was intereviewed the other day about his
beat chance of a winner today. He said it was his outsider in the 3.55pm at 33/1 (Spit).
If he is being honest and knows a lot about both horses than we are in a bit of bother.
Then again he could have no knowledge that the horse is ok and it doesnt pay to listen to them anyway.

* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI has the following profile
* Horses with 5-6 career runs
* Horses aged 6
* Handicap Hurdle last time out
* No form in Graded races
* Horses with that profile were 10-40
* Those running in Febuary had a 6-9 record
* Those like him beaten 16 + lengths last time were 4-9
* Those like him beaten 32 + lengths were 2-3
* Would have been happier if he had won a race before
* That said he has an interesting profile
* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI could well be a Player

14/1 at BoyleSports Betfred Tote

Ayr favourites

Newbury favourites

Warwick favourites

The above is just a small snippet of the horse racing statistics from the Saturday email of the RacingTrends service.

For those of you who are interested in self improvement .. a Free Horse Racing Course is also availalbe from RacingTrends.

These ratings also go by the name of PostMark

Quite simply they are score based on past form of the horse and are meant to give some indication of the best horses in the race.

All fine and dandy but one thing I have never seen printed in the racing post is any information as to whether these ratings are any good or not.

eg If you backed all the top postmark rated horses would you make cash or lose it?

Fortunately I know a man who has crunched the numbers and done the research to give you the answer to that one.

He has also gone a step further and broken the research down  further including aspects such as looking for top rated runners that are quick returners to the track and also the effect of market position ( fav, 2nd fav etc )

Go to the page below and about half way down the page you will see a section about the racing post ratings research.

Click here ==>    Racing Post Ratings Research

NB this is FREE

There are however bits of more detailed research you can choose to pay for if you like.

For example he has worked out a few past profitable systems based on racing post postmark ratings.

You get access to these and everything else that is full member only there if you register then upgrade your membership for £25.

Twelve races previewed today however for full members.

I have picked a random one for todays free blog.

DONCASTER 4.35

Blue Square Supporting Marie Curie Cancer Care
Maiden Hurdle (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 3m110y

7/4 Wayward Prince, 7/2 South Leinster, 11/2 Penylan Star
10/1 Bally Sands, 10/1 Basford Lady, 12/1 Eros Moon
12/1 Florarossa, 14/1 Supreme Plan, 20/1 Collyns Avenue
20/1 Saddlers Mount, 25/1 Maska Pony, 40/1 Hi Ho Silvia
150/1 Secret Gift, 200/1 Just Chrissie, 200/1 Rosie Larkin.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle over 3m
* January and Febuary have had 60 of these races.

The 60 similar races point to the big two runners at the head of the betting.
If you take horses that come from Bumpers you find a poor 2-102 record.
None of them had just one run (0-39) or were aged 5 (0-22) so PENYLAN
STAR fitting both those stats is a Negative. EROS MOON also fails that and
is a negative. Female horses have a poor 2-118 record. None of them had
under 5 runs. None were Unplaced last time out and those that came from
2m 4f or shorter were 0-58 so It’s easy to oppose both BASFORD LADY
and FLORAROSSA. I can not find a winner like MASKA PONY but he’d
probably be best outsider. I cant find a horse like BALLY SANDS in 60
races beaten so far last time so recently and surely it’s asking a lot for him to
overcome that so soon. No horse was beaten as far as SADDLERS MOUNT
after just 1 run. The outsiders look opposable.
I see this between 2 horses. SOUTH LEINSTER  is respected
but I fancy WAYWARD PRINCE to win

Selection -WAYWARD PRINCE

7/4 when advised to full members earlier but now best priced 11/8 at Betfred

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

It covers some basics those new to betting on the horses may find useful to help them get to grips with the game.

Also however there is a bit of more advanced thinking in the latter chapters as Dave expalins some of the key elements of race form one should use if assessing a horse race.

On the whole its an interesting read and well worth a look at the hefty price tag of a big fat zero.

Get your copy now at the link below.

Click Here ==>      Free Horse Racing Course