————————————————

No joy last week on the free blog with Wotova only placing.
He did run again yesterday however and I pointed full members to him.
This time he won at a decent price.
It happens often when you can spot a horse in the zone of winning
that he may not please you first run but the following time out.

Last week I mentioned the firm bet was full member only.
That did very well for them.
Structured as two win bets and an each way double on
Ascot 1.45 – SHOW FLOWER  3/1
Nottingham 2.00 – DISPOL GRAND 7/2

Both horses won landing a good profit.

We had another good day on Friday with a 10/1 firm bet winner.

The full member service is in great form with profit on turnover on my firm tips
running at a level of about 40% for the past 8 months or so of current message format.

Today for full members I have covered 15 races spread between
the three main meetings at Newmarket, Newbury and Thirsk.
It’s quite a typical Saturday with some taxing handicaps and lots
of pitfalls on quality tracks with very few favours given.

I do have a firm full member bet in the 4.15
Join at link below for instant access
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

For the free blog tip today I am again posting up one of the additional races I have examined.

N e w b u r y  3.05

11/4 Thomas Chippendale, 9/2 Hajras, 8/1 Expense Claim
8/1 Rewarded, 10/1 Almuftarris, Icelander, 14/1 Clayton
14/1 Poetic Lord, 14/1 Trader Jack, 16/1 Al Saham
16/1 Hurricane In Dubai, 33/1 Humungosaur
33/1 Tidal Way, 50/1 Mcvicar.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 10f
* Recent evidence suggests avoid the very low draws
* Since 2011 there were 15 handicaps with 9 runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 had a 1-57 record
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 8 5 14 8 6 5 2 5 10 12 6 9 11 13 14
* ICELANDER is unsafe and is also drawn 1
* POETIC LORD is drawn 2 and opposed
* He is quite exposed for seasonal debutant
* HAJRAS isn’t drawn well in stall 3
* I dont like him from a 3yo handicap over 8f
* There were several winners doing that
* None had 2 runs like HAJRAS
* Those like HAJRAS winning last time were 0-16
* REWARDED also won a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* We know all 16 horses doing that failed
* TRADER JACK didnt run well enough last time
* I feel the same about TIDAL WAY
* HURRICANE IN DUBAI won a maiden last time
* None did that with only 2 career starts
* HUMUNGOSAUR – Too exposed to be beaten so far
* MCVICAR – Unlikely to hold off the improvers
* AL SAHAM – No winners came from Pattern class as 2yo’s
* CLAYTON – Not far away but only 2 runs
* The only horses like him had 3 runs and I’d prefer that
* ALMUFTARRIS won a 10f maiden last time
* Normally that was a bad profile in this race
* The 2010 winner did win with the same profile though
* That gets him respect but he is the owners 2nd string

Shortlist

* EXPENSE CLAIM – Good solid all round profile
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE – 1 similar winner
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE is the most likely winner
* I’d want to include both horses in the staking plan
* Given the prices I am drawn to the bigger priced horse

Selection

EXPENSE CLAIM 7/1 Win Bet  Blue Square – Betfred – William Hill – Bet365

THOMAS CHIPPENDALE 9/4 Saver Bet    Blue Square

Live market odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-19/newbury/15-05/betting/

The following discussion from this morning regarding betting each way was lifted from the full member area at www.PunterProfits.com

Worth a read to any one who has ever bet a horse each way.

PunterProfits as a site.. well worth closer investigation if you are a thinking
punter.

There are many highly profitable tipping threads in the private forums there
whose results would blow any £2k a year glossy slick marketed tipster
away.

I would be interested to hear people’s thoughts on betting each way. I personally
rarely bet each way, with the exceptions of 8 or 16 horse races or if the market
has a particular shape eg odds on fav with 2 dangers and then mostly longer
odds. I notice a lot of threads where selections are advised each way so am
interested to understand what the stats are on this or whether it is just a
matter of personal preferences. I do think that there are definite situations
where value can be obtained each way (indeed there is a thread for 16 runner
handicaps) so hope this might be a useful topic for discussion.

Carl

REASON is that in my opinion big handicaps are the only races that offer value
as bookmakers struggle to make ther books up early in these races. My problem
is that nearly all the book makers will not take my bets anymore, or just offer
me crappy sp – Betfair offers poor value early on as there is never enough money
to get a decent bet on, thats the reason I went down the tipster route.

I do not back any other method or follow anyone else on the site. Yesterday
I had 10 bets – NO winners, I few seconds unfortunatly but 5 did place @ 25/1
16/1 16/1 20/1 25/1 but still made a nice profit at just £10EW.

The method I use is Value, value value + a little bit of form smile.gif

To me its the only route to go, as following the short end of the market will
lead you to busto smile.gif

GL Padman

Sounds like you are starting from the mathematical angle

of seeking race frames that offer each way advantage.

eg classic case of 8 runner race with a very short price favourite.

16 runner handicaps as per Padman again is in that realm.

It can throw up potential as well for the odd each way double.

More so a case of not taking the starting point of

I am going to find a few random horses to each way double every day,

instead .. the markets are throwing up this opportunity today

with two good each framed races.

eg say for arguments sake you have two horses with a

calculated zero positive or negative edge on the win side

but 10% value on the place side.

The double factors up that value to about 21%

It is another style of selective punt that the bookies do not like very much
smile.gif

A totally different angle on each way betting is from a bank management perspective.

eg If you ask the rough question of “I have fixed capital of £1000..

How best to I manage my betting of this method for optimal growth.”

Well sometimes an each way approach can be advantageous.

Likes of Kelly formulae will indicate % bank to use will vary with both ROI
and strike rate.

With each way betting there is potential to increase strike rate / reduce losing
run length

and draw downs etc.

That can permit additional aggression in terms of % bank which can in turn lead
to faster growth rate.

However not something to go into blindly.

More so done after research of a particular approach or method indicates is
favourable to do so.

In the back of my head I recall some research ( possibly by Dave ) indicating
each way

was less profitable than on the nose assuming random horse selections.

eg picture two betting shop mug punters who over the year each bet the same
randomly selected 500

horses at 10/1 over the course of a year.

The punter who bets each will have much more pleasurable experiences when landing

place returns. The win only punter may endure losing runs with much fewer pleasurable
days.

However add up at year end what they have won or lost and the win only punter
will have

lost less than his each way betting mate.

So for average betting shop mug punters who often focus “on the day”
rather than long term

each way can be a psychological trap set by the bookmaker.

But it is also an exploitable trap by the shrewd who can identify the correct
frame of race

where the maths and numbers move from bookmaker to punter.

Cheers

Mick

PS he mentions his firm bets below. A rough back of envelope calc on these firm bets would indicate a high level of profit on them over the past 8 months or so.  Ball park 40% profit on turnover.

Just shows what you can do if you work really hard at research and are selective about what horses you bet on.

==========================================

I do have what I feel are stronger bets today and have in fact tipped two firm bets today for my main clients. They always moan however if I post for free my firm bets.  I guess they have a fair point.  This is from further down the message in my Profiles and Previews section.

Worth a nosey if devoid of inspiration yourself this afternoon.

N o t t i n g h a m   5.30

9/2 Join Up, 5/1 Myraid, 5/1 Woteva, 6/1 Alluring Star
6/1 Crocodile Bay, 6/1 Sky Diamond, 10/1 Caledonia Prince
10/1 Eyes On, 20/1 Centre Stage, 33/1 Femme Royale.

This is a low grade Apprentice handicap over a Mile.
I have problems with ALLURING STAR as she goes
up in distance as a filly. CALEDONIA PRINCE also
comes up in trip and was beaten too far doing that.
There are several here that fail for backclass with a
few having never run beyond a Class 5 grade before.
CALEDONIA PRINCE fails that. Both EYES ON
and MYRAID also fail that. CROCODILE BAY has
lots to prove aged 9 and coming up in distance. I’m
shortlisting Sky DIAMOND who has the class that
you require for the race. JOIN UP is also an option.
I think the best bet is WOTEVA. She has ran twice
now after a long break. Her last run illustrates there
is a good chance she retains her old ability and that
run showed just how well handicapped she was and I
think in light of no outstanding option she is the bet.

Selection

WOTEVA 7/1 Win Bet at SpreadEx
Sky DIAMOND 5/1 Saver at Betfred

(Saver = a bet staked to break even if saver wins and main bet loses )

For latest bookmakers odds for this race see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-12/nottingham/17-30/betting/

.

TOTALS

SP = 128.47 pts

BFSP (5% commision) = 268.54 pts

These are to level stakes may I stress !

The thread is Titled:  Simple Techniques – Well Handicapped Horses

I think there is a  bit of a clue as to the core methodology in the name:)

It is just one of several very  profitable threads in the full member forums at PunterProfits.com. It is a spot where many good racing brains gather and this is reflected in the depth and quality of profitable member tipping threads there.

Want  Free Trial?

If you have yet to benefit from the full member forums at PunterProfits and fancy a months free trial to test it for yourself do  the following.

#1 Register a user name for their forums.

Nb no need for step #1 if you already have a free user account at punterprofits

#2 Email the webmaster address there see http://www.punterprofits.com/contact.php and tell them you saw the free trial offer on Sports Betting Blog and would like to pay £0 for your first month of full membership. You will then be given a monthly subs join option with first month set to a big fat zero.

Go do it now if at all interested.

Here is the link    www.PunterProfits.com

.

Kevin has a work history as a player & manager.

His soccer betting advice however is firmly rooted in his own ratings and stats research. His research and efforts are paying off with a good long term profitable record for clients at Football Bets

That site costs just £1 to test out and will be running to after Euro 2012 at least. He has several more tips in the menber area there right now.

To visit the site click here ==> Football Betting Advice

===================================

3pm Sunday Everton v Newcastle

Alan Pardew has deservedly won the Manager of the Year award, having guided Newcastle

to CL challengers but just falling short in the end and this is another game where I am expecting

them to just fall short. Everton need a win to be sure of ending the season above the red half of

Merseyside. They had a normally poor start to the season but have got stronger and stronger as

the season wore on and on my EPL Ratings I have them as an even money shot. We have value.

Back Everton to beat Newcastle @ 5/4 with Coral or Ladbrokes for 1 point

This one comes from 99 Reds who is an ex player manager and soccer stats freak.

He has a proven long term tipping edge

—————————————————————

3.00pm  Exeter v Sheffield United

Exeter are already relegated and will want to go out with heads held high. United are looking
for automatic promotion and need a win. It goes without saying that Sheffield will score, as they
go for it right from the off. The question is will Exeter score? They have scored in their last 8
games Home and Away and United have conceded in 9 of their last 10, so I am going for this.

Back Both Teams to Score @ 4/5 with Sky for 1 point

to visit his site click here ==> Betting Advice

=======================

T h i r s k  2.40

For Latest Odds on this race see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-05/thirsk/14-40/betting/

This 6f Classified Stakes race is a statistical mess and I
dont see a strong edge. All I can say is that in this and
similar races no fillies have won with under 7 runs and
none came from maidens so LOLLINA PAULINA and
SHOW FLOWER have plenty to prove. Horses with 1
run this year like Sky CROSSING have underperformed.
NEARLY A GIFT isnt right. FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN
has a difficult absence to overcome as most winners are
either seasonal debutants or ran within 2 weeks. That’s
narrowed it down to three admittedly unsafe options. I
respect DARK FALCON and FORTROSE ACADEMY.
I think the best profile belongs to HENRY BEE.

* Horses from 3yo maidens
* Running within 2 weeks
* Male horses
* 5 or more career starts
* Similar horses had a 4-6 record
* The 2003-2004 winners of this had this profile

Selection – HENRY BEE 7/1 Each Way

Coral – BoyleSports – Betfred -  Stan James

His full service has been on fire since Cheltenham.

To visit his site click here Betting Advice

—————————————————————————

We have had a decent week for full members here.
Only two firm advised bets over the entire week.
We attacked the 12/1 Coral offered about RIFLESSIONE
with an each way bet and got the place pay off.
Then on Friday we improved on 2nd spot with 8/1 winner VALMINA

We do have another firm bet today that runs in the 6.05
So plenty of time to join up as a member proper
and pick that up in the member area.

As for todays Free Horse Racing Tip.
This is not a firm bet. More so extra analysis and info
from the message extra analysis section.

But it is the big race of the day and the most asked for preview
for the free betting blog.

The Scottish National

A y r 3.25

For live Scottish National Odds odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-21/ayr/15-25/betting/

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I have looked at the last 18 renewals of this race
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* It is Just not the best preparation for this race
* JUNIOR has that against him
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* JUNIOR looks underraced this season to me
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-19 record in this
* JUNIOR also fails this statistic
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-120
* No good coming here after a poor last run
* The following horses didnt do enough last time
* JUNIOR – ETXALAR
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18 4
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17 13
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 4 Chase starts.
* HARRY THE VIKING only has 3 Chase starts
* Thats one less than every 1st 2nd or 3rd
* HARRY THE VIKING doesnt come out that well
* HARRY THE VIKING is also a 7 year old
* We know 7 year olds dont win the Grand National
* In this race since 1992 they have a 1-55 record
* Horses aged 7 (1-55) look unsafe to me
* WALKON is 7 and may not get home
* PORTRAIT KING is 7 and lacks backclass
* He won the Eider last time and this is a second big test
* I see no evidence a 7 year old can do that
* OUR ISLAND – He isnt even 7 until next month
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-89
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* There was only 1 exposed winner aged 11 or more
* He had Graded form and 8 runs that season
* GARLETON – Not right as a 11 year old
* MERIGO – Has some flaws as an exposed 11yo
* The only winner like him had a more recent run
* He didnt win last time either and had more runs that year
* MERIGO – Credit for winning this in 2010 and 2nd last year
* ABBEYBRANEY – Wrong type of 11yo
* BALLYFITZ – HEEZ A STEEL dont offer enough aged 11 +
* 12 of the last 13 winners ran within 60 days
* ANY CURRENCY has been absent longer
* He looks underraced this year with that absence
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 3-89 record
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Graded form
* They all had 10st 4lbs or less as well
* KNOCKARA BEAU fails that
* FRUITY O4ROONEY fails that
* PETTIFOUR fails that
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* AURORAS ENCORE fails that statistic

* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* QUENTIN COLLONGES fails that
* OUR ISLAND also fails that
* QUENTIN COLLONGES only has 3 runs this year
* Some doing that have won but none aged 8
* No winners came from Hurdles
* PETTIFOUR – KING FONTAINE fails that
* GALAXY ROCK also come from hurdles
* Exposed horses won 6 of the last 18 renewals
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* AURORAS ENCORE – GARLETON fail that
* MAD AEDA doesnt look right
* The last 12 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out
* The following horses failed to achieve that
* PETTIFOUR – OUR ISLAND – ANY CURRENCY
* MOSTLY BOB – BE THERE IN FIVE
* GALAXY ROCK is not a negative
* Thats despite coming from hurdles. I can overlook that
* Decided not to shortlist him as an exposed 8yo
* Those that won all had more runs that season
* They all had more backclass and came from further too
* BE THERE IN FIVE also looks underraced this year aged 8

S h o r t l i s t

* MOSTLY BOB – Taking a chance on including him
* He had excused at Cheltenham and passes most stats
* Around 25/1 he could offer some value
* He was really progressive last year
* He has excuses in some races this year
* This track and ground could help him

* BENNY BE GOOD passes all the above trends
* He does have 11st 3lbs though which is a worry
* 8 of the last 10 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* I can overlook that given his price

* IKORODU ROAD sails through the above trends

Selection

Covering a few to small stakes with Ikorodu staked to
just return stakes on the other two if it wins

MOSTLY BOB 25/1 Win Bet ( a bit higher available on Betfair )
BENNY BE GOOD 25/1 Win Bet ( 36/1 Betfair )
IKORODU ROAD 12/1 Saver ( 16/1 Betfair )

This tip come from Phil and ex bookmaker who now tips with great success at
the Football Bets site.

It is just one of three tips he has for today.
The rest you can get in the member area there if you care to
invest just £1 on a trial membership at football bets.

Also worth a read is an interview with Phil where he explains some of his philosophy.

See http://www.football-bets.co.uk/soccer-odds-compiler-interview.php
Plus a recent free newsletter there indicates a potential staking approach
to really grow your bank.

See http://www.football-bets.co.uk/newsletter/football-bets-newsletter-april-2012.php

Anyhow here is his free blog tip for today

===================================

Middlesbrough v Southampton (5:20pm)
Middlesbrough MOST Corners at Evens Blue Square 5/6 Bet365

1pt
(More firms may price this market up in time)

===================================

PS He sent that on Friday Blue Square now cut a bit but
Paddy Power and William Hill also offer evens

What else would expect today .. its his Grand National Racing Tip

———————————————————

We got a small win last Saturday for you with Vintage Star

grabbing a place at 20/1 early advised price.

Today is of course Grand National Day.

It’s that annoying day when Friends and Family all hassle me to give

them a good Grand National Tip.

Can’t they pick an easier race with less runners?

Here are my thoughts however.

It is not a race I will be staking with serious cash personally.

More so following the house wives out there with a small interest bet.

John Smith’s Grand National Chase

(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+) 4m4f

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-14/aintree/16-15/betting/

The Grand National changes every year as do the statistics bit by bit to

accomodate the recent history. This year the Fences are again different.

Some are slightly lower and landings raised in places as it slowly

becomes an easier race. That doesnt help us as the more testing

and unique the race the better stats work.

* I think we should mainly ignore the weight statistics

* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs

* Horses with 11st 6lbs have struggled overall

* Only Red Rum had won with more weight in recent years

* I would not get too hung up with weight though

* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st

* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs

* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs

* Horses with 11st 5lbs or more won in 1965 1957 1954 1950

* I wont be ruling any horse out only on their weight

* It is a well known fact 7 year olds do badly

* It is now 72 years since one won and they are hard to bet

* ORGANISEDCONFUSION has to go as a 7 year old

* He is not 7 year as he doesnt become 7 until next month

* With just 3 runs this year it defies sense to bet him

* I am opposing these other 7 year olds

* VIKING BLOND – OUR ISLAND – THARAWAAT

* On the other end of the scale avoid teenagers

* HELLO BUD is surely too old as a 14yo

* Horses aged 8 do not do as well as many think

* Only 3 of the last 36 winners were 8 year olds

* Only 1 of the last 18 winners were 8 year olds

* If betting an 8yo make sure it is at least an 8yo

* If Foaled after the day of this race they are not

* Those foaled in Mid april and beyond are not yet 8

* Bindaree – Party Politics – Corbiere -the last 8yo winners

* They were all foaled early in the year

* They were all aged 8 and a few months

* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal

* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8

* They are just 7 and a few months old

* ON HIS OWN wasnt foaled until mid July

* That makes him only 7 and three quarters

* He is 6 months younger than most 8yo winners were

* He also has less Chasing experience than any winner

* QUISCOVER FONTAINE is 2 months short of being 8

* SHAKALAAAAKABOOMBOOM is a May 28th foal

* He wont be an 8yo for another 6 weeks

* He is short on Chasing experience and runs this year

* ALFA BEAT is not quite 8 years old yet

* TATENEN is one week short of his 8th birthday

* SMOKING ACES is also short of his 8th birthday

* Exposed horses struggle with few runs that season

* By exposed I mean those with 21 + National Hunt runs

* Those with 1-2-3 runs that season struggled

* They do in all Long distance Handicap Chases in April

* They have a dreadful record in all similar races

* Grey Abbey (Ayr 2004) had 36 runs and 3 that year

* Ballabriggs (Aintree 2011) had 21 runs and 3 that year

* I cant find any more exposed horses so underraced

* The more runs a horse has over 21

* The more runs he needs that season

* Be prepare to be lenient if a horse is close to passing it

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season

* 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6

* You can see None have won with 0-1-2 runs that year

* It is 4m 4f and these types just dont seem fit enough

* I would be keen to opposed all horses with 1-2 runs

* STATE OF PLAY is 12 and hasnt run in 371 days

* He heads my list of horses that are underraced this year

* BALLABRIGGS only has 1 run this season

* With 11st 9lbs it looks a horrendous ordeal for him

* BLACK APALACHI is 13 and has just 1 run this year

* Only 2 Teenagers have won and none since 1923

* None have placed since 1969 and he surely wont win

* DEEP PURPLE has one full race and half a race

* He has under 2 runs this year when an exposed 11yo

* I see him a extremely underraced this season

* JUNIOR has ran just twice this season not a good sign

* He has had fewer chase starts than all past winners

* I see him underraced this year and unsafe

* He started racing on the Flat and few National winners do

* His Sire hasnt bred a winner beyond 3m 2f yet

* PLANET OF SOUND has just 2 runs this season

* He is an exposed 10yo and I would want more runs

* WEST END ROCKER – He has only had 2 runs this year

* One of those was when he pulled up

* ARBOR SUPREME has similar problems

* Just 2 runs this year and a massive absence

* He has a longer absence than any winner in decades

* ON HIS OWN discussed earlier is also underraced

* IN COMPLIANCE is underraced this season

* MIDNIGHT HAZE is also underraced

* It is very important to have a recent race

* The past 20 winners all ran within 7 weeks

* In fact every winner since 1981 ran within 50 days

* The last that did not was Aldaniti back in 1981

* I don’t want a horse absent much more than 60 days

* The last 21 winners were absent this many days

* 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25

* 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25

* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups

* Horses 2nd in the National had these absence

* 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23

* 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102

* 17 of the past 21 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks

* I think STATE OF PLAY is absent too long

* WEST END ROCKER – ARBOR SUPREME are as well

* The following are absent longer than ideal

* CALGARY BAY has been absent 77 days

* CALGARY BAY doesnt appeal much

* Not keen on his Track form either

* ON HIS OWN has been absent 79 days

* ANY CURRENCY has been absent 77 days

* Class is important in a National Winner

* 10 of the last 11 winners won in Listed Grade or higher

* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)

* He won in Class 2 races but hadnt been tested in higher

* I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winer

* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival

* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight

* That was more than worthy or a Listed or Graded win

* 20 of the last 21 winners raced in Graded Class before

* The exception was again Ballabriggs (2011)

* The vast majority of the seconds also had Graded Form

* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced

* Exposed horses should really have past Graded Form

* Ballabriggs wouldnt have been exposed with just 1 less run

* One past race he didnt jump past the first fence

* He had really only had 20 career starts

* I would much prefer a horse with Graded Class form

* I’d argue the following horses lack the required class

* POSTMASTER – MIDNIGHT HAZE – SMOKIN ACES

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance

* The previous 21 winners had the following Chase runs

* 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14

* 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14

* Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994

* He had 9 Chase runs and two more had 10 Chase starts

* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winner

* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups

* 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20

* 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8

* I’d be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts

* 8 of the last 11 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase starts

* I’d argue the following horses lack the right chase form

* CAPPA BLUE only has 6 Chase runs and fell in one of those

* That’s at least 3 less than every past winner

* JUNIOR has fewer chase starts than any recent winner

* SYNCHRONISED would be the joint least experienced chaser

* SHAKALAAAAKABOOMBOOM also has the minimum

* PEARLYSTEPS would be the joint least experienced chaser

* QUISCOVER FONTAINE only has 7 Chase starts

* OUR ISLAND only has 7 Chase starts

* VIKING BLOND only has 5 Chase runs

* The following horses look to be too riSky

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – Lacks the class and stamina

* ABBEYBRANEY looks out of his depth

* VIC VENTURI wont defy 62 days off as a 12yo

* SWING BILL wont get the trip

* MON MOME – I find it so hard to fancy him

* He is 12 and hasnt shown nearly enough this year

* WEIRD AL – If he ran his race he’d go close

* He surely is not man enough for this race

* SEABASS has a very unorthodox profile

* I hate the fact he comes from a 2m Chase

* Stamina must be a problem for him as well

* He hasnt won over 3m before under rules

* His Sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet

* His sires record in Class 2 and higher is telling

* He hasnt had a winner in that class beyond 3m 2f

* Ruby Walsh has also turned the ride down

* SEABASS does not look safe enough

* TREACLE is an exposed 11yo

* Two of the last 19 winners could say the same

* Passes most angles he has to be considered

* What worries me most is his 146 handicap mark

* Seems harsh for a horse thats won only off 122 before

* Not overkeen on his 62 day absence either

* Thats longer than any winner since 1991

* Not sure he has the class to defy that absence and rating

* There were 5 winners coming from Cheltenham

* Miinnehoma 1994 came from the Gold Cup

* Rough Quest 1996 came from the Gold Cup

* Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)

* Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race

* Don’t Push it 2010 came from the Pertemps H’Cap Hurdle

* No winners came from Cheltenham Aged 9

* SUNNYHILLBOY – Not convinced he is the right type

* We know no 9yo came from Cheltenham and won this

* No Cheltenham Festival winners have won here in decades

* None have got within 28 lengths of the winner

* SUNNYHILLBOY is also a small horse not ideal here

* Do we really want a Cheltenham festival winner ?

* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE ran at Cheltenham

* He ran well and was a good 2nd in the Kim Muir

* No 9 year olds won coming from Cheltenham

* It worries me has had won just 1 Chase race

* That was in a Beginners Chase back in 2010

* The last 19 winners had 3-7 Chase wins before

* He fell at the second fence in last years race

* He has now fallen in 3 of his 11 Chase races

* The last 12 winners all had a better completion record

* He hasnt won at 3 Miles yet but that doesnt worry me

* Overall I feel he has too many weaknesses

* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is an exposed 11yo

* I’d like a couple more runs this year

* I wasnt convinced he would get the trip either

* Not sure he has the legs especially with 11st 6lbs

* RARE BOB – Has a good old fashioned profile

* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically

* His jumping here would be one concern

* The only time he fell before was at Aintree

* His only other race here was not without mistakes

* He will be vulnerable to improvers as well

* His profile demands he is respected

* My concerns is he may be too old fashioned

* Horses like him dont seem to win the race these days

* There must also be a stamina doubt

* The furthest he has raced has been 3m 5f

* After that race his trainer said he didnt stay

* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB was favourite last year

* He had an awful profile so did well to finish 6th

* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB is 11 years old

* He was brought down at the 4th on his seasonal debut

* He has really only had 3 full runs this season

* Thats a bit short for an 11yo and it worries me

* He fails a few minor statistics I have

* The last 19 winners all had more Chase wins than him

* They also all had more Handicap Chase experience too

* I Could turn a blind eye to those statistics

* He has won 5 times under rules all on right handed tracks

* Fair to say his hardest races were on left handed tracks

* Its another niggling doubt though

* Interesting runner and if he wins it is explainable

* I’d have prefered another run this year and more promise

* SYNCHRONISED has just won the Gold Cup

* This will take a better performance should he win

* His last run may have taken too much from him

* Horses aged 9 like him coming from Cheltenham struggled

* He has to carry a big weight with only 9 Chase starts

* If winning he would be the joint least experienced chaser

* SYNCHRONISED – I suspect he has too much against him

* I certainly wouldnt make him a negative

* The weight in the ground after a hard race is a worry

* There is a big case for him being a Saver in my view

* GILES CROSS – I see him as an overall positive

* The ground has come right and he looks an improver

* There are a few reservations I have about him

* I would like another run or two this year

* I wouldnt be certain he would get the trip either

* The last half mile could be quite a test for him

* Will he cope with the stamina doubt and 3 runs this year

* Those 3 runs were all hard races as well

* No surprise if he won but I am not sold on him

* CAPPA BLUE – has some minor issues but one serious flaw

* The least experienced chaser had ran in 9 previous chases

* CAPPA BLUE has just 6 and Fell -Pulled up in 2 of those

* That said Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts

* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts

* CAPPA BLUE has to be considered because of that

* CHICAGO GREY – Plenty of positives in his profile

* Well raced this year and ticks a lot of boxes

* I dont like the fact he comes from a 2m 4f Chase

* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is not good

* I dont like the fact he comes from a Grade 2 Chase either

* Other than that there is a lot to like

* His trainer has a National Pedigree

* CHICAGO GREY also looks laid out for the race

* He certainly has the class and he is a big positive

* Reservations though in a number of areas

* He is lacking the Handicap Chase experience too

* KILLYGLEN – Has a good old fashioned profile

* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically

* Maybe the type that used to win this race but no more

* It bothers me has finished in only 9 of his 14 chase starts

* It bothers me his form at 3m 3f and more is PU PU PU

* It bothers me he was 66/1 in last years race

* He hasnt always been happy in a big field as well

* Bothers me he hasnt won a handicap chase before

* All that aisde he sails through my angles

* Many trends observers have also come round to him

* Shortlisted but I have listed plenty of shortcomings

* ACCORDING TO PETE is an exposed 11yo

* Well raced this year there is a lot to like

* He is consistent and not badly treated at all

* He has never fallen in 14 Chase starts

* There are some problems. May like it softer

* He is not a big horse either and I dont like that

* He jumps well though and I see a strong runner here

* ALWAYS RIGHT has 11 runs all over fences

* This is quite a classy horse with tons of ability

* Obviously his PU PU form recent isnt easy on the eye

* He has had a wind operation to cure a problem causing it

* That may or may not work but the price compensates

* He is lightly raced yet has more than enough Chase runs

* That earns him a lot of respect

* At the prices he is one of the most interesting

****************************************************

****************************************************

My Grand National Tips

From the above I have opted to cover a few horses to small stakes

I have assumed a £10 total stake

* CHICAGO GREY 25/1 £4 Win

* CAPPA BLEU £3 Win 18/1

* ALWAYS RIGHT £1.50 win 40/1

* ACCORDING TO PETE £1.50 win 40/1

* I am betting 4 horses in the race

* These are all win bets

* All advised at Betfair prices which of course may fluctuate a bit.

( if you want to bet on the nose in large runner field Betfair is normally
the best spot )

If you prefer to bet each way you can see live odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-14/aintree/16-15/betting/

It is worth noting different bookmakers paying out for different numbers of
places.

Victor Chandler are the pick as they pay out 6 places

Good luck whether you follow me or use your magic pin to pick your own

Best Wishes

Guy

PS In case you missed it we have a short term cheap deal on full membership
running.

Page will come down after the weekend.

See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/aintree-festival-racing-offer.asp