Secret betting club recently published an interview with a bookmaker trained soccer odds compiler. It is an interesting read and there a few ideas you may pick up on to improve your own soccer betting.
Read an online copy here == > Odds Compiler
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Spread Betting On Promoted Premiership Teams
The nation’s football spread betting fans have been showing their support for newly promoted QPR, Norwich and Swansea ahead of the start of the new football season.
The Hoops, Canaries and Swans will be facing a baptism of fire in the top flight after winning promotion into the premier league last term.
However, punters have been backing the teams to beat the forecasted 2011-12 season points predictions made by leading sports betting and financial bookmaker SpreadEx.
Initial points quotes by the firm are between 36.5-38 points by the end of the season for QPR, between 31.5-33 for Norwich and between 31-32.5 for Swansea.
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Spread betting punters have been putting their money behind all three finishing on higher points totals come May.
SpreadEx spokesman Andy MacKenzie said: “After Blackpool’s plucky showing last season, football spread betting punters have been really getting behind the newly promoted clubs.
“Although Ian Holloway’s men did eventually get relegated last term, they finished far higher than their predicted points total meaning anyone who gambled on them on our Premier League Points market would have been left quids in.
“This market is very popular with gamblers as you are not necessarily just betting on who will win the league or who will get relegated.
“Every team is given a points prediction which is updated as the season progresses meaning punters can bet on individual teams to do better or worse than our forecast, with the option of opening or closing bets at any point in the season to take winnings or cut losses.”
Other markets where bettors have put down big money include Sunderland and Fulham to finish on 48 points or higher and West Brom to end the campaign with more than 44 points while Blackburn and Newcastle are predicted to find the season tough going.
As for who will win the league itself, punters are finding it hard to look past current Premier League champions Manchester United.
MacKenzie added: “United have won four titles in the past five years and our clients seem to think that dominance is going to continue.
“Punters have already backed them in from 2/1 to 7/4 to win the title and have been buying on the spreads their predicted points total of 79.5-81.
“We’ve had little interest in Chelsea, Arsenal or Liverpool, however, it seems our customers fancy Manchester City to finish with more than 76 points and to be United’s main title challengers this season.”
SpreadEx’s Premier League Points Predictions 2011-12
Team Points
Man Utd 79.5-81
Chelsea 78-79.5
Man City 74.5-76
Arsenal 70.5-72
Liverpool 69-70.5
Spurs 61.5-63
Everton 54-55.5
Villa 47-48.5
Fulham 46-47.5
Stoke 46-47.5
Sunderland 46-47.5
Bolton 43.5-45
Newcastle 43.5-45
West Brom 42-43.5
Blackburn 39.5-41
Wolves 39.5-41
Wigan 37.5-39
QPR 36.5-38
Norwich 31.5-33
Swansea 31-32.5
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ASIAN HANDICAP:
A market that causes a great deal of confusion but often offers very good value. It got the name “Asian handicap” because it is the preferred form of betting in the far east. Profit margins are far lower than most other markets, often just a couple of percent. I will try to explain how they work as simply as I can. Don’t worry if you don’t understand it straight away, many people don’t, take your time and read over what I have written a couple of times. You can play around with it on Betfair too, just pick a game, click on Asian handicaps and click the “back” box. A bet slip will appear on the right hand side explaining what you win or lose from each outcome.
The simplest type of Asian handicap is exactly the same bet as draw no bet. Both teams will appear with a +0 next to them, the bet is void in the event of a draw.
Another type of Asian handicap is to back a team +1 or -1. You might back an outsider +1 or back a strong favourite -1. Backing a strong favourite -1 is basically backing them to win by more than one goal. If they win by exactly one goal then you lose nothing and your stake is returned as the one goal margin they have won by is cancelled out by the -1 handicap. If they win by two or more then your bet is a winner.
A slightly more complicated Asian handicap is backing a team to win +1.5 or -1.5. This should be thought of in exactly the same way as over/under 2.5 goals. If the team you are backing -1.5 wins by two goals then your bet is a winner, if they win by only one goal then your bet is a loser.
It is the same as backing a team -1 only you have no insurance if the team wins by one goal. Remember if you back a team -1 and they win by one, then you get your money back, but if you back them -1.5 and they win by one then the bet is a loser. The most complicated Asian handicap is when the previous two bets are combined and you are given the option of backing a team -1 & -1.5. Although it looks very complicated it is actually quite simple. All you have to do to understand it is split the bet in two. Half of your bet is for “team A” to win -1 and the other half of your stake is for “team A” to win -1.5. If we back team A at evens to win -1 & -1.5 for a £100 stake, then the following will happen:
Team A wins by 2 goals or more = win £100 (Both parts of the bet have won)
Team A wins by 1 goal = lose £50 (you get your money back for the first part of the bet but lose £50 on the second part)
Team A does not win = lose £100 (both parts of your bet have lost)
Asian handicaps are most useful if you want to back a short priced favourite to win by a big margin or for an outsider to only lose by a small margin or to draw. For example, if you back a team +1 then you have both the draw and them winning as positive results.
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This was written by a professional odds compiler.
More from him in the free soccer betting course over at www.Football-Bets.co.uk
Gambling on soccer is a mugs game, you can’t beat the bookmaker, right?
Wrong.
There is good money to be made from soccer betting if you stick to some simple
basic rules.
Rule 1 – This is a golden rule, you must shop around for the best value. Open accounts with as many on line bookmakers as possible, they nearly all offer free bets to entice you to open accounts with them.
You should have no loyalty to any bookmaker and the sole reason you should be placing a bet with one is because you are getting the best price. People who just use the nearest high street shop haven’t got a chance. Most Bookmakers have a profit margin of around 10% for football matches but because different bookmakers offer different prices it is still possible to swing the odds in your favour.
Rule 2 – Work out a staking plan. Once you have identified a value bet the next question is “how much should I bet?”. The answer to this question is determined firstly, by how confident you are about the bet, and secondly, by how much value you think you are getting. For example, if you toss a coin in the air you have a 50% chance it will be heads and a 50% chance it will be tales. The correct price for each outcome should therefore be evens. But what if somebody offered you 3/1 that the coin would land on heads, you are obviously being offered huge value and if you repeated this bet ten times you would have to be incredibly unlucky not to be in profit at the end.
Whatever staking plan you have worked out, this would obviously be a maximum bet scenario, you could still lose but you have secured huge value and if you consistently bet when the odds are in your favour you theoretically will make money in the long run. Your staking plan should accommodate the fact that despite the huge value any individual bet may lose.
Rule 3 – Never, EVER, chase. We’ve all been there, you’ve had a terrible day and lost a lot of money, the live Spanish game is about to come on and it’s the last game of the day. “Time to get my money back”, you say to yourself and you have a silly bet on Real Madrid at terrible odds. To make things even worse Madrid concede a last minute goal to level the game. They then go and miss a penalty deep in injury time, what a disaster, your days losses just got worse! To make money betting on soccer it is crucial that you have discipline. Just because a game is on TV doesn’t mean you have to bet on it. If you didn’t identify a value bet in the game at the start of the day then don’t bet on it. We all have bad days and there will be plenty of good value opportunities to get your money back in the next set of fixtures.
You must be selective with your bets. If you do feel the need to bet on every game you watch then keep your stakes small unless you have identified value.
Rule 4 – Stick to singles or doubles. It is hard enough predicting the outcome of one match let alone five.
Bookmakers love to promote accumulator bets because they know the more selections you choose the less likely you are to win. No matter how many teams you pick there will always be one result that lets you down. Many people are attracted to these bets by the possibilities of winning a lot of money from relatively small stakes. You will find that if you increase your stakes a little and stick to singles and doubles your profits will increase long term.
Rule 5 – Pay close attention to team news. An injury to a key striker or a suspended captain can sometimes greatly swing the odds in your favour. As a general rule the higher the level of soccer the less affect team news will have as the top clubs have large squads full of quality players. The lower league teams however, operate with much smaller squads and can have their chances of winning badly affected by key players being injured or suspended. Be warned however, team news can be misleading. Some clubs actively give out false information in order to gain an advantage over their opponents so it is dangerous to base your bet on team news alone.
Rule 6 – Choose which markets you bet on carefully. The best
markets to bet on are generally the match odds and some of the goals markets.
Halftime/full time, correct score, first goal scorer and other similar markets
have a higher profit margin built in by bookmakers and therefore generally offer
poor value. This is not always the case though and occasionally you will find
the odd juicy price in these markets.
For example, injuries may result in a midfield player starting up front making him much better value to be first goal scorer. Asian Handicaps are another market which you should make yourself familiar with. The bookmakers profit margin on these markets is a lot lower and so straight away you have more chance of finding value.
Rule 7 – Bend the rules in your favour. There are a number
of things you can do to achieve this. Firstly make sure you pick up a coupon
from your local shops at the start of the week. The prices printed on these
coupons are compiled up to a week ahead of the game and are often cut online
or on the phone. However the big two on the high street will hold the prices
printed on these coupons so you can often find a bigger price on a shop coupon
than you will be able to get online or even with the Exchanges. If there is
a big move for a certain game then they might impose restrictions of between
£50-200 per customer, but you should still be able to get on. Likewise,
when there is a move online and the match odds are cut you will sometimes find
that a bookmaker has forgotten to cut the “draw no bet” or maybe the
“halftime / full time” price.
It is also worth keeping an eye on long term markets when games are being played as you wouldn’t believe how sloppy some bookmakers can be at suspending markets. This can be especially useful near the end of the season when it is clearer which teams might win the league or be relegated.
Rule 8 – Keep records of all your bets. It is important to do this so that you know exactly how much money you are making or losing. It will help you decide on your staking plan and make it clear that you should stop if you aren’t making money in the long run.
Rule 9 – Stick to what you know and don’t bet on leagues you haven’t been following. You can only get an edge on bookmakers if you have better knowledge than they do on a certain league. If you don’t usually bet on Italian soccer but Milan are playing Inter on Channel five, then don’t bet on it. Accept that the bookmaker is likely to know much more about the two teams than you do and that, as a result, you are unlikely to beat him with bets on this league.
Depending on how much time you have free to study each league, you should be careful not to overstretch yourself. Pick one or two leagues out and concentrate on building up your knowledge of the players, managers, derbies and grudge matches. Most odds compilers will have several leagues to cover and may not have time to concentrate fully on each one.
Rule 10 - Don’t get carried away by short term trends and always be mindful of the bigger picture. This applies both to the leagues you are betting on as well as your own results. For example, if a team has won four games on the bounce then ask yourself “are they winning these games because they are a good team or is it just a lucky run?”. If you believe they are a good team then keep backing them but if you think its a lucky run that is likely to end soon, then you may well get the opportunity to back one of their opponents at an inflated price. Man City’s excellent run of results at home at the start of the season was a good example. City won their first nine home league games but if you thought this run was going to continue indefinitely then you would have lost your next six bets on them. Another good example is when one of the top teams is having a good run in several different competitions. The media tend to get carried away and soon start suggesting that this club can win all four trophies. Bookmakers latch on to this and ridiculously short prices for a quadruple appear in the Racing post prompting bets from hundreds of mug punters.
You should also be wary of “short termism” when it comes to your own bets. In any given season you will have good spells and bad spells and you should not get carried away with either. Stick to your staking plan and don’t start betting bigger and bigger because you are having a good run. Don’t go spending all your winnings either, keep a betting fund and only withdraw from it once you have gone over a certain level. You may need it to fall back on during a bad spell. Likewise, don’t get too upset by a bad run of results. Analyse your bets to see where you may have gone wrong but don’t be panicked into any rash changes. Bad spells can be very disheartening, but if you know your stuff and have made money in the past, then you probably aren’t doing too much wrong and the next good spell is just around the corner. The end of the season is the best time to take stock and analyse your performance over the season as a whole.
These rules should help you to tip the odds in your favour. It is possible to make money from betting on soccer but you will need to invest time and effort. It should be enjoyable too, a moneymaking hobby if you like. If you find the bad spells too upsetting or stressful then maybe it’s not for you.
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This advice was provided by Football-Bets.co.uk and written by a professional
soccer odds compiler with many years experience working for major uk bookmakers.
The Football-Bets site have several ex bookmakers providing clients with profitable
betting advice on uk and european soccer. Worth a look is their short free course
aimed at increasing your understanding of soccer betting.
If you have not already done so I suggest you give yourself more odds picking options and open an account with the bookmakers below.
