see  here.

As mentioned last week these Strong Stats are just a very small snippet from Guy’s much larger daily message.  Somedays they indicate a posive for backers as per last week. Others days they indicate a horse Guy feels should be opposed for statisical reasons.

How you oppose it is up to you. It may be a straight lay or you may wish to back another horse you fancy in the race with the knowledge that there are strong arguments against this one here.

Nb with Cheltenham coming up and Guy haveing a long standing reputation for producing some exceptional Cheltenham Analsis you could do worse than sign up to his free newsletter click here ==>  free horse racing tips.

===============================

Wolverhampton 3.15

Going with a draw statistic today as it affects the
second favourite in the race who now looks badly
drawn. This statistic also supports the match bet
today as I am opposing the badly drawn favourite.

* I looked at all 9f handicaps since the start of 2011
* The Draw shows a small bias against low numbers
* There were 56 handicaps here with 9+runners
* Horses drawn 1 and 2 had a 2-106 record
* Only 1 of the last 53 races went to horses drawn 1 or 2
* Son Vida is opposed here.

Layable on Betfair at about 9/2

He calls it the Strongest Statisic Today

In short it points to something interesting found

through his research.

Some days it may point to a horse to think about backing.

Other days it may be a strong stat that could lead you to opposing a short priced favourite.

=====================

S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c  T o d a y

Uttoxeter 2.10

VICTORIA ROSE 10/1

Another Positive Statistic today. I dont expect her
to win rated lower than most of her rivals but she is
a double figure price and comes out curiously well so
I wouldnt put anyone off having a small interest bet.

* All Mares Novice Chases run in January
* Horses from Handicap Hurdles
* Between 7 and 20 career starts
* Running over 19f or more last time
* Between 1 and 4 runs that season
* There were 8 horses with that profile
* They finished W 2 W W W W W W
* VICTORIA ROSE  shares that profile

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS price has come in a  bit since Mathematician Members got this earlier today. Now best priced 9/1 at VC

.

He finally had a losing weekend after five winning weekend’s in a row for us here.

Read below his suggested betting advice for today.

———————————————————-

A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, Bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 Bet365 Betfred Sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Free Horse Racing Tips

———————————–

SERVICE NEWS

There are 69 days to the Cheltenham Festival. In
aviation terms the National Hunt flight takes off
in November with the Destination Cheltenham in
March. We have been through the turbulance of
weeks 1 and 2 in January where the racing is poor
and one of the bumpiest parts of the trip. Now as
we come to weeks 3 and 4 in January the flight is
now starting a gradual descent down to destination.
During that descent passangers will be able to see
some great landmarks like the Tote Gold Trophy
now known sadly as the Betfair hurdle. There is
the Skybet Chase – The Victor Chandler at Ascot
and many other statistically strong races. We are
entering Ante Post Season now which is always a
lot more interesting than the drudgery you get on
the Sand and the lower grade national hunt cards.
I plan to do full statistical previews for all the big
trials and I always get excited at this time of year.

SATURDAY’S RACING

The horse I am most excited about today
and the strongest bet advised today to Full Members,
runs in a very early race today. I will leave metioning it here
on the free betting blog.

For the free tip today we are off to Warwick for one of the later races.

W a r w i c k   3.40

5/1 Sona Sasta, 6/1 Neptune Equester, 7/1 Blazing Bailey
7/1 Strongbows Legend, 8/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Faasel
10/1 Hey Big Spender, Bench Warrent 14/1 Fredo
14/1 Morning Moment,16/1 On Borrowed Wings
20/1 Hello Bud 20/1 Miko De Beauchene.

* The Classic Chase is a high class 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are 20 similar races at this time of year.
* Not a great stats race as it has changed over the years
* There is a small sample size of these races as well
* MORNING MOMENT – Not for me 8lbs out of the weights
* All recent winners had more backclass than him
* His last run was poor and he has a weak profile
* Only 2 winners overcame heavy defeats to win similar races
* They all had Backclass in Graded races and he doesnt
* I’d also argue he may not stay this far
* MIKO DE BEAUCHENE looks wrong aged 12
* He has not ran a good race in over 2 years
* He is out of the handicap and offers nothing
* FAASEL is 11 and has a miserable profile
* I dont want to bet an exposed 11yo first time out
* I looked at every race in January
* Thats every distance , every class and any kind of race
* I looked at exposed horses aged 11 or more first time
* None managed to win beyond 3 Miles
* None managed to win beyond a Class 4 race
* The only Handicap Chase winner was 2m 5f in Class 4
* FAASEL has a very hard task in my view
* He has never won beyond 2m 5f before either
* HEY BIG SPENDER comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* That hurts his profile and so does his weight
* Horses with 11st 8lbs in this race were 0-17
* HEY BIG SPENDER also has to prove he stays this far
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 3f yet
* BENCH WARRENT comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* He may struggle to get over a hard race at Chepstow
* Statistically I can live with him
* I cant forgive him a hard 4th in the Welsh National
* Not with a very inexperienced jockey
* ON BORROWED WINGS comes from 22f
* No winners did that in any similar race in January
* His last Chase was only in a Novice Handicap
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* FREDO is exposed and doesnt do it for me
* No exposed horse won when  aged 8
* None won when coming from 3m or shorter either
* FREDO also has to show he stays
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* HELLO BUD is too old aged 14
* I looked at every winner aged 13 or more over 3m 2f +
* Thats in any race and at any time of year
* There was only 1 winner beyond a Class 3 race
* That was Spot The Difference in a Cross Country Chase
* Out of form aged 14 he is not worth betting
* BLAZING BAILEY comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* I can accept the argument he is a class horse
* And that he will like the ground and the drop in class
* You can also argue he didnt have too hard a race at Chepstow
* Statistically though he is not strong
* I looked at all exposed horses running within a month
* They had a bad record and none ran as badly as him last time

S h o r t l i s t

* MAJOR MALARKEY has 1 run this season
* Thats easily my biggest problem with him
* Past winners had  1 2 3 2 6 2 4 runs that season
* Last years winner was a 9yo with 1 run this year
* That really does help his profile
* Last years winner also had 9 Chase starts like him
* Last years winner helpsm to gets him shortlisted
* Without that evidence I’d have opposed him
* Still bothers me he’s the only horse with 1 run

* STRONGBOWS LEGEND is hard to read aged 7
* All 7 year old winners were placed last time
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND Fell which isnt a good preparation
* Ignore that and he won 25 lengths before that
* This is said to be a very well handicapped horse
* His lack of backclass bothers me a bit
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND has no form beyond Class 3 grade
* The last 7 winners all had Graded form
* Almost every similar winner had more backclass too
* He is 5lbs out of the handicap as well
* I like him a lot but not sure if he has the class

* SONA SASTA has 5 Chase starts
* We have had recent winners with 4 and 6 chase starts
* I’d have liked a slighly better last run
* I can overlook that as he hasn’t done much wrong
* If the grounds right he must be a player
* He has to prove he stays this far though
* Thats not certain on his breeding

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – No strong problems with him
* He did the right thing avoiding the Welsh National
* I dont see why he shouldnt go well

Selection

NEPTUNE EQUESTER 13/2 Each Way

13/2 available at Bet365

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-14/warwick/15-40/betting/

.

Can he make it six in a row?

==========================

Mathematician 1153

Lingfield  3.55 – PIPERS PIPING  10/1 Each Way

L i n g f i e l d

Lingfield has a ferocious card. I have half chances in a
lot of races but not sure there is anything good enough
to advise. I nearly did something in the 3.55pm but I’d
run out of time. I like Pipers Piping and City Legend a
bit and although I have not made a strong enough case
for a very strong bet I can go with a mention. Rather
than have City Legend as a saver I will take a simpler
route and suggest PIPERS PIPING each way at 9/1 +

It’s very hard today and I have struggled to find any
really decent bet and I think it’s a dangerous day so
go careful and consider its a particularly tough day.
I see this more as a Fun Bet and no guarantees we are
going to get anything back from it.

L i n g f i e l d   3.55

9/4 Sketchy Evidence, 7/2 Eager To Bow, 11/2 City Legend
13/2 The Strig, 8/1 Pipers Piping, 10/1 Cativo Cavallino
12/1 Hawk Moth, 16/1 Silvee, 20/1 Sienna Blue
25/1 High On The Hog.

No time to look at this handicap in any great detail
but I checked out Sketchy Evidence and would have
opposed him. No winners came from maidens with
2 runs as he does. Only one winner came from a 6f
maiden and that horse had a long absence and I just
see him as shaky. EAGER TO BOW does have the
much safer profile but he didnt excite me and that
aside his draw would put me off him. There are two
I think stand out with recent races in this race.

* CITY LEGEND – Every chance of taking this
* PIPERS PIPING – Looks interesting with better jockey

Selection

PIPERS PIPING  10/1 Each Way at S James

For live market prices see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-07/lingfield-park/15-55/betting/

If you are led personally to City Legend I would not put you off it.

To Visit Guys Site Click Here ==> Betting Advice

Guy is aiming to hit an impressive five winning weekends in a row !

———————————————————-

L i n g f i e l d   2.15

EVEN BOLDER 7/1 + Each Way

I start with a difficult nursery at 12.30 but I feel we
have enough negatives to sort this out. I have made
COMPTON TARGET my selection and had a saver
on Moment In The Sun but I could easily have gone
the other way around. I dont think I will be far away
here but I didn’t really see this bet as selection class.
The short price means SAFARI SUNSEEKER is not
going to be the selection either but a hot profile and
I think he probably will win. I do have a dilemma in
EVEN BOLDER and it is preying on my mind a bit.

In the last two days the best bet in the message won
at 7/1 and 7/2 but only when mentions. Yesterday I
had the first 5 winners at Lingfield and now I come
back to having a selection it would just be so typical
if Lingfield were to bear it’s teeth to throw up some
traffic problems. EVEN BOLDER is often unlucky
and he runs at a track where you need luck so I will
not be surprised I report tomorrow how unlucky he
has been. Emotion and Scare Mongering aside what
a great price he is. Freely available at 8/1 on Betfair
this is the Lowest Class of race he has raced in for
a very long time. He has been beautifully Placed in
this race. He has slipped in nicely into a 0-65 race
for the first time in years and meets opponents he
should be able to beat. We have a Top jockey and
I think he should be closer to 7/2 than 7/1 and he
could be bigger later on. He has to be worth a bet.

L i n g f i e l d   2.15

3/1 Wreningham, 100/30 Griffin Point, 9/2 Royal Bajan
6/1 Dorothy4s Dancing, 7/1 Even Bolder, 12/1 Sherjawy
12/1 Vhujon, 12/1 Welsh Inlet, 25/1 Dells Breezer.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There are 104 similar races at this time of year
* DELLS BREEZER – Opposable with 1 run this year from 5f
* DOROTHY4S DANCING  is hard to read
* She is a 3yo filly and has just 1 run in the last 59 days
* That would worry me for a filly so lightly raced
* I looked at fillies like her with 9-12 runs and Class 4 form
* I found 1 similar winner a long time ago
* That horse had a stone less weight and more recent run
* DOROTHY4S DANCING – Not a negative but not for me
* I am uncomfortable with her profile
* VHUJON – Doesnt really offer me enough
* Not hard to see him getting outpaced here
* Not sure he is capable of taking this over 5f
* GRIFFIN POINT is 4yo filly from a 5f race
* I found 3 winners with that profile but all had more backclass
* None like GRIFFIN POINT has between 13 and 20 runs either
* She has 17 runs and isnt quite right
* I like the recent run just not the limited backclass
* SHERJAWY is a exposed 7 year old
* He lacks a recent run within 2 weeks
* There were 4 winners but 3 had Listed or Group class backclass
* Those like SHERJAWY who didnt were just 1-45
* That winner ran better than he did last time and with less weight
* SHERJAWY -  Not an impressive profile
* He is well handicapped though and not a negative

S h o r t l i s t

* ROYAL BAJAN is 3 from a 5f handicap
* He lacks a recent run and has Class 4 form before
* I found 2 winners like him but with 2 differences
* Both winners ran closer last time than he did
* Both had 8st 11lbs or less and he has 9st 6lbs
* ROYAL BAJAN is not a negative but not quite right
* I’d like less weight and a more recent run
* ROYAL BAJAN has had just 1 race in the last 94 days
* Thats not a lot for a 5f sprinter
* WELSH INLET is an exposed 3yo filly
* She comes from a 5f handicap and has Class 4 form
* I found 2 recent winners bit both ran within 2 weeks
* None with her profile tried to win absent over 2 weeks
* WELSH INLET has a Neutral profile
* WRENINGHAM is an exposed 6yo winning last time
* I found a couple of winners with a similar profile
* One had far more backclass but he ism just about ok
* This is a career high mark though and he is beatable

Selection

* EVEN BOLDER is an 8yo from a 5f race
* All winners his age and over did the same thing
* They all finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time
* EVEN BOLDER beaten 3.5 lengths is not technically right
* Ignore that as he was badly drawn and badly hampered last time
* He could and should easily have been much closer
* This is also a drop in class for him
* When has this horse ever had only a 0-64 field to beat
* EVEN BOLDER has a massive chance for me
* He has spent almost his entire career in better class
* I would see him as a serious runner for all his frustrations

Nb 7/1 was available earlier when full members got this.

Best price now 13/2 at VC

Four in a  row is a big ask however.

Fingers crossed

Here is his free tip message for today.

============================

I like LOYALTY’s chance a lot mainly because he
has a good profile but also because I can tear holes
in the profiles of many of his opponents. The big
problem here is a big field and the desperate need
for luck in running and there are no guarantees of
that and this makes him unsafe and far more riSky.

Friday’s  Full Service Review

Overall a pretty spicy message yesterday given time was
lost with the Racing Post website going down. I ended up
with 14 races to sort out. There were 4 of these that we
broke level in through either savers or each way bets and
they just cancelled each other out. That left 10 races and
there was a clear victory with 5 winners and 5 losers lots
better than I had hoped for. This included a 10/1 winner
so well ahead on paper and overall a good message which
shows my angles work and also shows the more you read
from the message the richer the experience should be.

L i n g f i e l d  1.50

3/1 Mabait, 9/2 Spirit Of Sharjah, 5/1 Clockmaker
6/1 Loyalty, 8/1 Night Lily, Kakatosi, 12/1 Bravo Echo
12/1 Elna Bright, 16/1 Mr Willis, 25/1 Layline
66/1 Mister Green.

* This is an all aged conditions race over a mile
* Quality race but only 18 similar races are run
* I think you have to look at the Draw here
* I looked at 8f Lingfield races with 10 + runners
* The last few races went to the following stalls
* 8 6 5 8 12 7 11 10 2 8 3 10 3 7
* I think the worst stalls have to be 1-2-3
* The last 8 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* MABAIT is Top rated but I see interesting flaws
* He has fewer runs this year than every other runner
* All exposed horses had more runs this year than him
* All horses from 7f races also had more runs
* MABAIT is exposed and comes from 7f
* Dont feel he is equipped to do that with 4 runs this year
* LAYLINE comes out badly with his absence
* ELNA BRIGHT – Doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* KAKATOSI looks unsafe to me
* He has just 1 run since last July and was thrashed in it
* Throw in a step up in distance he looks opposable
* MISTER GREEN is outclassed
* MR WILLIS comes out badly and is badly weighted
* For an exposed horse up in trip he is underraced
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH wouldnt be first choice
* Not exposed and with 1 run since last June
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH also has a bad draw in stall 1
* NIGHT LILY wouldnt be my first choice
* I think Stall 2 wont do her any favours
* She is also a Mare and comes from a conditions race
* BRAVO ECHO – Not a negative but doesnt offer much

S h o r t l i s t

* CLOCKMAKER – I see him as shortlistable but unsafe
* He comes from 7f and winning last time troubles me
* The only horse winning at 7f last time was younger
* I think there are flaws in his profile but he’s in form
* Not keen on his draw much in stall 3
* LOYALTY – Very nice profile 3 similar winners
* He is well drawn and has easily the best profile
* Will need luck in running but a clear choice

Selection

* LOYALTY 6/1 Each Way Bet365 Stan James

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

.

They are not the cheapest service out there but they do produce good results. Being a bit expensive also helps keep client numbers down so you would not be one of hundreds or thousands trying to get on.

The below for example was sent out by them at circa 10.30 this morning. Now after 12 noon there is still loads of 16/1 available.

So fees may dictate them not for the casual £5 punter. Bigger stakng investor style punters however looking for a proven past profitable service should take a closer look.

Their messages are short and sweet and to the point.

You no long winded waffle just the key details you need to bet.

Here is a live sample selection for today.

( they actually have another runner as well today in their full member area )

I guess they are an example of the sort of stuff I want to draw your attention to here in future.  ie not new stuff launched with loads of marketing hype and no past history but rather stuff that is proven to me personally over time and that I can honestly vouch for as doing what it says on the tin.

========================

For Saturday 17th December 2011

1.50 Lingfield

BRAVE ECHO 2PT E/W @ 16/1 Ladbrokes BOG
========================

For more info on them click here ==> Horse Betting Analyst

.

Can he make it three profitable Saturday’s in a row?

—————————

Weather affected day and It’s Southwell that has
the most coverage as the only card that was safe.

I’m surprised an 11f handicap produces my best bet but
the 2.55pm may be best left to FOLLOW THE FLAG
a horse I have being saying for a while was well treated
and looking at his last run I think he needs this distance.
Decided against putting him up as a bet because I know
my angles in 11f handicaps are awkward and messy and
there is every chance a non runner killed my each way
options. I do see FOLLOW THE FLAG as my best bet.

S o u t h w e l l   2.55

7/2 Royal Swain, 7/2 Stanley Rigby, 9/2 Sail Home
6/1 Ostentation, 6/1 Rajamand, 10/1 Follow The Flag
10/1 Hits Only Jude, 12/1 Magic Echo.

This is an 11f Handicap for 0-75 rated horses. This is a
nightmare distance to sort out statistically as I have said
countless times before. I have few 11f races to work with
but I ran all these horses through some statistical tests to get a shortlist.
The horses with long absences struggled a bit and fell short.
So did the horses that were well beaten over 12f last time.
There are stamina doubts to consider with horses like HITS ONLY JUDE.
In the end I felt the most promising profiles were both FOLLOW THE FLAG
and SAIL HOME and whilst neither looked brilliant I can at least find a winner
like both which is a reasonable start. I have flagged up FOLLOW THE FLAG 4
times recently as well handicapped and he may well be able to win over this distance.
He appeals most with Sail Home the horse I fear the most. I could have SAIL HOME
as the saver in the race but I’d rather bet FOLLOW THE FLAG E/W as
I think he looked like he was crying out for a slower and
longer surface last time at Lingfield. He only just coped
with a faster track at a Mile but stayed on very well late
in the race and I think he could well take this race today.

Selection

FOLLOW THE FLAG 11/2 Ladbrokes – Sporting Bet  Each Way

.

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: the best starting point looks to be horses that finished in the first three LTO as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. From there, look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a good record, especially those that ran in the Greatwood hurdle LTO.. Favourites also have a very good record. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding. In terms of age, 5 year olds have done well.

Provided by www.RacingTrends.co.uk