Secret betting club recently published an interview with a bookmaker trained soccer odds compiler. It is an interesting read and there a few ideas you may pick up on to improve your own soccer betting.
Read an online copy here == > Odds Compiler
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A free racing tip today for you on The Hennessy Gold Cup from Guy at The Mathematician Site. To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips
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N e w b u r y 3.10
PLANET OF SOUND 12/1
Each Way
Hennessy Gold Cup N e w b u r y 3.10
A Fascinating race and I have shortlisted 4 horses.
I like Wymott and Wayward Prince. It would not
surprise me to see Beshabar won as well. Its really
a race where most horses have a good narative so
it’s down to which is the most convincing. I think
the most persuasive was PLANET OF SOUND. I am
having 75% of my stake to win 25% to place.
5/1 Aiteen Thirtythree, 6/1 Great Endeavour
13/2 Wymott, 7/1 Michel Le Bon, 8/1 Wayward Prince
12/1 Beshabar, 12/1 Planet Of Sound, 14/1 Sarando
16/1 The Giant Bolster, 20/1 Carruthers, 20/1 Muirhead
25/1 Neptune Collonges, 25/1 Tullamore Dew
33/1 Billie Magern, 40/1 Blazing Bailey, 40/1 Fair Along
40/1 Qhilimar, 50/1 Balthazar King.
* The Hennessy is a Handicap Chase over 3m2f110y
* There are 19 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-18 career starts dominate the hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 19 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-47 in this race
* The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is therefore opposed
* He is a 10yo seasonal debutant hard to like
* BLAZING BAILEY is not the right type
* BALTHAZAR KING is there to make up the numbers
* QHILIMAR is the wrong type to win a Hennessy
* FAIR ALONG has not had the right preparation
* BILLIE MAGERN looks hard to fancy
* He doesnt like big fields and is not progressing
* THE GIANT BOLSTER has jumping concerns
* He has failed to complete in his last 3 Chases
* He has only jumped 8 fences in these 3 races
* He carries too much risk with his jumping
* SARANDO is 6 and has run this year
* His profile is fine I just wonder if he has the class
* He has only got Grade 2 form
* He started 50/1 in that Class of race as well
* There isnt a strong statistical argument against him
* I just think there may be clasier horses
* Some of them have lighter weights than him
* TULLAMORE DEW fell last time
* Not the ideal preparation and he isnt for me
* You have to bank on him improving a lot
* The trip may bring that out but its not certain
* He was Novice Handicapping at the last Cheltenham
* He has a lot to prove in terms of class
* MUIRHEAD has been summer jumping in Ireland
* Thats not the profile of a Hennessy winner
* He is more exposed than almost all past winners
* He has been busier this season than any of them
* MUIRHEAD just looks too untypical to me
* CARRUTHERS was beaten 20 lengths in this last year
* He had a good profile then but still failed
* He likes a small field and wont get that here
* He has already had more chase runs than is ideal
* He is too riSky in a big field handicap like this
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE has 1 run this year
* All winners doing that came from a Handicap
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE does not do that
* Horses that come from Non handicaps like him were 0-25
* He also comes from a 2m 5f race
* Only 1 winner had 1 run this year from 21f or shorter
* That was One Man who had less weight and was younger
* I wasn’t impressed with his profile
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE doesnt offer enough
* MICHEL LE BON has not run in 730 days
* No past winner had anything like that absence
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* MICHEL LE BON hasnt even got that
* His biggest problem is having just 1 Chase start
* Last years winner only had 3 and he was inexperienced
* Surely he shouldn’t be able to win with 1 chase start
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR won the Paddy Power last time
* Personally I don’t like that as a trial race
* There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
* The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
* The previous winner of that race was in 1980
* That said it has been done so I will overlook that
* When Celestial Gold won he had less weight
* Celestial Gold was less exposed as well
* Celestial Gold also had more backclass as well
* This is GREAT ENDEAVOUR’s 7th Handicap Chase
* He is now 22lbs higher than when winning the first
* Thats a worry especially with no Grade 1-2 form
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1-2 form
* Only 1 past winner won when as well raced as him
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR doesn’t feel completely safe
* He meets horses with more backclass yet more scope
S h o r t l i s t
* BESHABAR is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* BESHABAR wont find it easy trying to repeat that
* He does have a lot less weight to carry than Denman
* His Chasing profile is more than adequate
* In his favour is low mileage
* His Scottish National win was impressive
* He only had 4 chase runs before that
* He has only been raised 4lbs in the weights
* I think thats generous and he could go well
* BESHABAR would be a Positive
* I could have taken a chance with him
* My only reservations is will he need the run ?
* WAYWARD PRINCE comes out very well
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WAYWARD PRINCE fits that nicely with 10 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WAYWARD PRINCE matches that with 5 Chase runs
* There is one difference with his profile
* No winners came from a Novice race last year
* I’d ignore that as he had Grade 1 form before that
* Few Hennessy winners have headgear
* WAYWARD PRINCE is certainly shortlistable
* WYMOTT pulled up in the Sun Alliance last March
* So did last years winner of this race so it doesnt matter
* He was diagnosed with a small crack in a bone
* WYMOTT has a very encouraging profile
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WYMOTT fits that nicely with 11 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WYMOTT again matches that with 4 Chase runs
* I think he has a good profile
S e l e c t i o n
* PLANET OF SOUND is a 9yo
* He is the second best horse in the weights
* I think he can outclass these horses
* We had a 9yo seasonal debutant win in 2009
* This horse has got speed and class
* Enough Speed to Place in the 2m Arkle in 2009
* Enough Class to win a Grade 1 over 3m 1f
* Clearly he likes good to fast ground
* He has a good record when fresh
* I think he is best on Galloping tracks with long run ins
* His dislikes Sharp Tracks like Aintree and Haydock
* His wins come at Exeter Punchestown Chepstow Newbury
* His record at Newbury is 2 W W W
* PLANET OF SOUND has fallen once in 12 chase runs
* That was in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase in Feb 2010
* He then flopped at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival
* He wasnt fit that day and had a horrible preparation
* He also showed signs of having a breathing problem
* He then won the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup
* That was a Grade 1 race and he beat a high class field
* War of Attrition – Cooldine – Denman all behind him
* His next run was his seasonal debut in 2010-2011
* No shame in coming 3rd in a Grade 1
* He didnt like the ground or the track
* The Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander beat him
* There was no shame in that run
* His last run 10 months ago he flopped in the King George
* He Choked that day but has since had an operation
* This could be the time to catch him
* His best track and his Handicap debut
* He has to prove he stays but I think he will
* He wasnt stopping over 3m 1f in Ireland
* I believe he is the Class horse today with a chance
* The second season Chasers are not strong this year
* PLANET OF SOUND has to be worth a bet
12 /1 at Bet365 who pay 5 places
Also 12/1 at BoyleSports – S James – Ladbrokes – VC
latest odds available at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-11-26/newbury/15-10/betting/
NB Betfred have an offer on this race that may interest some of you.
If your horses finishes 2nd to the SP favourite you get your win stake back
See Hennessy Offer
It is also a Bet365 4/1 + offer race ( free bet on next channel 4 race if your bet wins at 4/1 or over )
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A couple of soccer betting tips for you today from Phil over at the Football Bets website. Phil is an ex bookmaker odds compiler. A case of gamekeeper turned poacher. Over two years of service so far he has racked up a very impressive net profit figure. There are more live bets in the Football Bets member area right now. A mere £1 gets you entry today.
Mixed Double
Stoke MOST Corners v Blackburn (12:45pm)
Tottenham To Score FIRST v West Brom (3:00pm)
This double pays out 67/50 VC 5/4 PaddyPower William Hill 1pt
Blackpool v Birmingham (3:00pm)
BOTH Teams To Score at 3/4 BSq
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A tip for this afternoons Premiership Soccer in the over under 2.5 goals market.
This comes from 99Reds over at www.football-bets.co.uk
Quite frankly he is on fire at the moment now that the early season form has bedded in. More importantly however his long term record over two years is very very good
He has three tips for today.
( £1 gets you into the full member service there if you wish to read the others )
Here is one of them.
3.00pm Wigan v Blackburn Over 2.5 goals 22/23 188 Bet 1pt
PS Also of interest on the football bets site is a free soccer betting course written by an odds compiler who worked for a major bookmaker as his 9 to 5 day job.
To get your free copy go to Soccer Betting Tips
This comes from Guy over at the Mathematician Service.
To visit Guy’s site click here == > Betting Advice
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H u n t i n g d o n 2.20
15/8 Getmeouthedoldrums, 2/1 Spring Moon
5/1 Call At Midnight, 13/2 Breaking Silence
10/1 Moon Melody, 12/1 Kercabellec.
* This is a Handicap Chase over 3m 6f +
* There are 43 similar races at this time of year
* GETMEOUTHEDOLDRUMS has just 2 runs
* Both came over hurdles and none over fences
* Asking a lot to win this on his Chase debut
* I looked at every long distance chase like this
* Thats every Chase at 3m 5f and more in November
* I looked at how many Chase starts every winner had
* The following is how many Chase starts they had
* 10 4 14 12 9 6 17 17 2 13 7 15 21 14 23 6 2 11 6 9 15
* 31 7 0 11 9 8 5 23 16 6 32 3 12 12 5 9 5 14 4 8 7 6
* The odd winner did win when very inexperienced
* I think GETMEOUTHEDOLDRUMS is vulnerable
* KERCABELLEC is older than all winners
* CALL AT MIDNIGHT is unsafe as a Mare
* Only 1 piece of Chase form you can like her on
* I think she is quite riSky off topweight
* MOON MELODY – Has to be vulnerable
* He is out of the weights and comes from hurdles
* BREAKING SILENCE has a definate chance
* I find him just about acceptable
* He does have to prove he stays though
* The Sires only had 1 winner over this far
* That was in a tiny field when half of them fell
* SPRING MOON has 6 runs and just 3 Chase starts
* He comes from a Beginners Chase over 3m
* I think its a better profile than Getmeouthedoldrums
* I dont have a problem with him
* SPRING MOON is a positive
* I think he is easily the safest profile here
Selection – SPRING MOON
5/2 at spreadex – Ladbrokes – Bet365
PS Out of interest Guy’s site has an interesting private forum where clients can share extra information. Members there include several who own their own horses. An extra little snippet from one who was at the stable this morning is below.
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The below is from The Mathematician Site.
Just part of a much larger message from him today.
Fingers crossed for another decent priced winner from him again today.
To visit his site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips
Lingfield 3.55
Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I’m not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn’t yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don’t know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don’t
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.
10/1 at Betfred – Ladbrokes – Coral – Stan James
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This is from Tammboy an ex bookmaker odds compiler and one of the resident experts over at the Football Bets website
Alloa vs. Stranraer
Top of the table clash in Division 3 sees Alloa take on Stranraer. Alloa started the season well but seemed to have lost their confidence in recent games, drawing to Berwick and Annan. Stranraer have been playing well away from home, winning their last 4 games comfortably albeit against inferior opposition. Confidence will be high that they can get something at Alloa and at the prices they look great value at 15/8.
The below comes from Guy over at The Mathematician Site.
It is just a small snippet from his much larger message.
To find out more about Guy please visit ==> Free Horse Racing Tips
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S a n d o w n 3.30
3/1 Hold On Julio, 7/2 Very Stylish, 6/1 Earth Planet
7/1 Moleskin, 8/1 Craiglands, 8/1 Pak Jack, 8/1 Soixante
9/1 Appleaday, 50/1 Local Present.
This is an interesting 3m Handicap Chase. I looked at
all similar races at this time of year. They all have to
be considered expect maybe LOCAL PRESENT. I am
going to oppose VERY STYLISH. He won on his chase
debut but that was a long time ago now and I wasnt too
impressed. I’m in no hurry to bet PAK JACK as he is a
11 year old seasonal debutant with topweight and has a
career high mark and poor win record. I cant rule out
several of these but two horses did stand out here.
HOLD ON JULIO
Initially I was going to make him a negative as there
are no Handicap Chases won by horses coming from a
Maiden hunter Chase. Then I can across this statistic.
* Horses coming from all Hunter Chases
* Having Under 9 career starts
* First Time Out
* There were 9 horses with that profile
* These horses had a very interesting 5-9 record
It strikes me the only reason to run a Hunter Chaser
like HOLD ON JULIO in a race like this is because he
is very well handicapped. He has won point to points
as well as his Hunter Chase win and Alan King has not
bought him for nothing. I have to see him in a different
light despite the fact the brilliant 5-9 record of Hunter
Chasers doesnt include winners from maiden hunters.
EARTH PLANET
There is a very good record in this race for horses
aged 9 that have recent runs especially over 3m or
more. Having a recent run has been a big help here.
When you consider the Whip Rules now that might
even be more of a help to EARTH PLANET. After
all apart from the “no hoper” All seven of his main
rivals are seasonal debutants. EARTH PLANET has
a considerable fitness advantage with 4 races so Far
this season. He has just placed at Cheltenham in a
similar Class race. Yes he is frustrating and hard to
win with but he consistently runs well and has form
on right handed tracks and has shown he has enough
ability to win this race. Given how helpful its been
to have a recent run in this race I have to fancy him.
Selection
I do like two here a lot. I feel I have to have a saver
on HOLD ON JULIO around 3/1 but I think there is
a very good chance EARTH PLANET’s fitness may
get him home today and I like him each way.
EARTH PLANET 7/1 Each Way
HOLD ON JULIO 3/1 + Saver Bet
Best odds at time of free blog post
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