Archive for October, 2011

Ascot Ten Year Trends

Saturday, October 1st, 2011 at 12:52 pm  
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The following racing information for Ascot is provided courtesy of www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Nb these Trend Reports as per below is only a small section of what they do there.

They are worth investigation if you are the sort who likes to think for yourself but at the same time appreciate the assistance of daily well researched stats to improve your decission making abiliites.

Stick your neck out and ask for a free trial ..the worst they can do is say no :)

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2.05 Ascot – Cornwallis Stakes – 5f (Group 3) 2yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: The top five in the betting have provided all 10 winners.
Price: All of the winners have been priced 12/1 or shorter.
Days since last run: Horses off the track for between 22 and 29 days have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all 27 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £14.25 (ROI +52.8%).
Market position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 3 of the betting LTO.
Distance LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners raced over 5f LTO.
Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 64.
Days since last run: Horses off the track for 21 days or less have provided just 1 winner from 50 runners for a loss of £37.00 (ROI -74%).
Handicaps LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 20.
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 40.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 2 wins from 10 for a loss of £1.75 (ROI -17.5%).
Sex of horse: Male runners have provided 6 winners from 82 (SR 7.3%); females have won 4 races from 46 (SR 8.7%).

Trends analysis: This has essentially been a market driven race with all of the winners from the top 5 in the betting, and no winners from 64 runners for horses priced 14/1 or bigger. Other positives include a run over 5f LTO, a position in the top 3 in the betting LTO and time off the track of between 22 and 29 days. In terms of negatives, horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have a poor record as do horses that raced in a handicap LTO.

2.40 Ascot – Cumberland Lodge – 1m4f (Group 3) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 7 wins from 10 for a profit of £6.63 (ROI +66.3%).
Market: All 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting.
Price: Horses priced 7/2 or shorter have provided all of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished won LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had last raced between 15 and 22 days ago.
Breeding: 7 wins from 31 for British bred runners; 3 wins from 8 for USA bred runners.
Trainers: Marcus Tregoning has won the race 5 times from just 6 runners!
Course LTO: Only 12 horses raced at Doncaster LTO but 5 have come on to win here.
Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/1 or shorter LTO.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Breeding: 0 wins from 25 for Irish bred runners.
Market: 0 wins from 49 for horses 3rd or bigger in the betting market.
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 2 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 34 for a loss of £30.00 (ROI -88.2%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 14 (SR 21.4%); 4yos have provided 5 winners from 29 (SR 17.2%); 5yos+ have provided 2 winners from 28 (SR 7.1%).

Trends analysis: In recent years this race has been totally dominated by the top two in the betting, with favourites having an outstanding record. LTO winners are also worth noting having won 70% of the races from just 24% of the total runners. Trainer Marcus Tregoning clearly targets this race as he has saddled the winner an amazing 5 times from only 6 runners. In terms of breeding, British and American bred runners have won all the races between them, with Irish bred runners really struggling. In terms of age, 3 and 4yos definitely have the edge over their older rivals.

3.15 Ascot – Bengough Stakes – 6f (Group 3) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 8 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 16/1.
LTO winners: 4 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £3.50 (ROI +11.3%).
LTO price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO.
Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Chris Wall and Saeed Bin Suroor.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 13 for a loss of £4.00 (ROI -30.8%).
Price: 0 wins from 61 for horses priced 20/1 or bigger.
Days since last run: Horses off the track for 21 days or less have provided 3 winners but from 88 runners for a loss of £59.00 (ROI -59%).
Position LTO: 32 runners finished 2nd or 3rd LTO and none have gone on to win here.
Handicaps LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £23.00 (ROI -57.5%).
Course LTO: Horses that ran at Newmarket LTO have provided 0 winners from 23. Horses coming from Ascot LTO have produced 2 winners, but from 49 qualifiers.
Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear (blinkers, tongue tie, cheekpieces etc) have provided just 1 winner from 34 for a loss of £27.00 (ROI -79.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 2 winners from 37 (SR 5.4%); 4yos have provided 4 winners from 39 (SR 10.3%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 34 (SR 5.9%); 6yos have provided 2 winners from 21 (SR 9.5%); 7yos+ have provided 0 winners from 20 (SR 0%).
Sex of horse: Male runners have provided 8 winners from 132 (SR 6.1%); females have won 2 races from 19 (SR 10.5%).

Trends analysis: It should be noted that this race has slightly stronger negative trends than positive ones. Horses wearing headgear have a poor record as do runners that raced at either Ascot or Newmarket LTO. In addition horses returning to the track within 3 weeks have a below average record. It terms of price it looks best to focus on prices between 6/1 and 16/1 as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 45% of the total runners. Age wise there are no clear trends although horses aged 7 or older look worth avoiding.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Another Winning Newmarket Tip?

Saturday, October 1st, 2011 at 12:39 pm  
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Guy from Mathematician Betting gave us a great big odds winner here on sports betting blog last weekend.

Can he do the same again?

Over to Guy

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A nice winner here last Saturday with Golden Desert who won at 16/1 SP.

See free horse racing tip for newmarket

You would have made extra cash profit of course if you took the early odds 18/1 advised here.

On to today.  Can we make it two in a row?

Probably not.  I feel we have value on our side but a 6/1 shot even if say 9/2 true odds is more likely to lose than win on the day.

Bet such horses 1000 times however and you should come out ahead in the long run.

N e w m a r k e t  3.35

11/4 Jameel, 11/2 Art History, 6/1 Topolski
13/2 Butler, 8/1 Incendo, 8/1 Warlu Way, 9/1 Greylami
16/1 The Betchworth Kid, 20/1 Red Anthem
25/1 Big Creek, 25/1 Itlaaq.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-100 rated horses
* There are 53 similar races at this time of year
* JAMEEL is very lightly raced
* We had 2 winners like him from Maidens
* Both came from 12f and he comes from 10f
* Neither had 1-2 runs that season
* I looked at 3 year olds from 10f races
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 runs were 0-23
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 that year were 0-22
* JAMEEL does have flaws in his profile
* TOPOLSKI had a superb season over hurdles last year
* He won all 3 and now returns back to the flat
* Long absence and I am far from convinced about him
* Horses like him score poorly and this is a hot race
* His connections say he is only 90% fit
* ITLAAQ and BIG CREEK didnt do enough last time
* RED ANTHEM may need more runs
* THE BETCHWORTH KID has been absent too long
* No exposed horse won without 7 + runs that season
* GREYLAMI fails that and looks short of runs
* INCENDO also fails that with 6 runs
* INCENDO is exposed and hasnt run in 2 weeks
* Similar horses struggled with a 2-91 record
* Both had more backclass and came from better races
* INCENDO didnt really do much for me

P o s s i b l e s

* BUTLER is 4 and well beaten over 12f last time
* WARNES WAY has the same problem
* Neither come out well on their latest starts
* I looked at horses aged 4 well beaten last time
* These horses score badly but there is hope there
* Last years winner of this overcame a similar problem
* If either bounce back they could be a threat
* Results show not many 4 year olds like them have
* Last years winner had a recent race
* Both horses have been absent over a Month
* I looked at horses aged 4 absent over a Month
* Those with 9 + runs had a 1-40 record
* That horse won down from the 14f Ebor
* BUTLER – WARNES WAY just come up short

S e l e c t i o n

* ART HISTORY is 3 and won at 10f last time
* I found 2 similar winners who were a close match
* ART HISTORY is a positive
* ART HISTORY Each Way 6/1 looks a solid bet

6/1 at Coral -  Ladbrokes – Betfred – Bet365

Full live odds can be seen at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-10-01/newmarket/15-35/betting/

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Free Soccer Betting Tips

Saturday, October 1st, 2011 at 12:18 pm  
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A couple of free soccer betting tips for you today.

These come from the Football Bets site.
There you get three experts for the price of one
and it is only £1 to test drive the service.

They guys have much more action today than is below.
These are just a few randomly selected bets from a bigger message.

As you can see they are not ones for huge reams of waffle.
Tips are short and sharp and to the point.
Their long term profitable results do the talking.

Advisor – Phil
Phil is an ex bookmaker odds compiler

Reading v Middlesbrough (3:00pm)
Middlesbrough DRAW NO BET at 11/10 PaddyPower Sky 21/20 William Hill Coral 1pt

Advisor – 99Reds
99 Reds is an ex lower division player and manager.
Soccer betting wise however he is a big stats freak
and uses said stats to id value soccer tips.

Millwall to beat Burnley   6/5   Tote   1pt